Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[joshdance 10]

anyone see that move in ES 13:02 EST?

 

yes why?

..........

[TheNegotiator 13]

yes why?

..........

 

Just seemed to come a little bit out of nowhere. Like someone got margin back and exited all at once. Just taking a look at T&S now.

 

-maybe like 15k or so went through in like 3 or 4 seconds. But there was a rush where a load went through. Kinda like when stops get hit.

Edited November 2, 2011 by TheNegotiator

[TheNegotiator 13]

All eyes on Greece/EU sovereign debt today along with unexpected ECB rate cut. Markets seem to be quite excited and there is likely to be a good deal of news flow, so will have to be on your toes trading today! Simple chart today.

 

[steve46 12]

This was an exceptional day....the Globex overnight was full of opportunity

and the RTH session was the same

 

Here is today's 12:30 reversal

 

I won't be posting these again

 

Good luck folks

[TheNegotiator 13]

The NFP fig came in pretty weak(+80k vs +95k exp), even though headline unemployment fell a little(9.0% vs 9.1% exp). The key was probably the revision of last month's fig from +103k to +158k. Overall it's good then. ES was all over the shop on the release. It's still likely to be about news from Europe today in all likelihood.

 

Anyway, here's a chart:-

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

This was an exceptional day....the Globex overnight was full of opportunity

and the RTH session was the same

 

Here is today's 12:30 reversal

 

I won't be posting these again

 

Good luck folks

 

Those trades look pretty good Steve. But it's always important to qualify any trade idea with entry criteria. So the question is, what do you believe should be the entry criteria for this type of trade? I would think watching price action around that time, if it's around an area which you might choose for entry anyway and based on the auction- i.e. how confident is the market and are there likely to be people looking to exit before cash close?

Edited November 4, 2011 by TheNegotiator

[steve46 12]

A repetitive pattern of behavior at this time of day

 

An imbalance of demand

 

A tape that shows buyers or sellers coming in with sufficient size to move the market

 

$VOLD and $ADD in agreement

 

DAX agrees

 

Yes there is always context and data to evaluate. I have mentioned these items many times previously. Several times in this thread alone

 

Now of course there are nuances, however I am not here to put on a seminar but to suggest that this behavior warrants a closer look.

 

If I were a struggling trader looking to improve I would start by observing that this is happening periodically and try to figure out why...Then I would look for ways to anticipate that behavior. A person might simply be aware that it could happen and look for an entry that aligns with the system that they are currently using. There are many ways to trade productively...

 

Yes negotiator I am in agreement with you on this

 

Good luck to everyone

[steve46 12]

Here are two interesting patterns...the first is a simple reversal based on imbalance of demand at a node. The second is a continuation of that trade (a pattern that repeats often)

 

The way I learned these was relatively straightforward.

 

First I observed the pattern...and by that I mean that I looked for repetitive patterns associated with reversals (and found a number of them)...through the process of testing, I found that these patterns are not always exact however a patient person can eventually see how price tests and retests before "taking off" prior to a trend move...so the sequence of test/retest is the operational concept that I base the trade on.

 

These kinds of patterns occur every day...I would estimate that I see about 8 to 10 of them almost every trading day and of those, about half are what I would characterize as high probability entry opportunities.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Hi Steve,

 

They weren't bad entries at all. ES had already respected the 2 areas to an extent and the flow of the market had already changed. I have noticed that the examples that you post generally tend to show entries on discernable retests of your supply areas. Would you say this is a fundamental part of your trading or is it just one of the ways you'll enter the market?

[steve46 12]

Hi Steve,

 

They weren't bad entries at all. ES had already respected the 2 areas to an extent and the flow of the market had already changed. I have noticed that the examples that you post generally tend to show entries on discernable retests of your supply areas. Would you say this is a fundamental part of your trading or is it just one of the ways you'll enter the market?

 

Yes retests of supply generally provide good opportunity....in addition to the retest I am reading the tape and looking for agreement from DAX.

 

Sorry for the brief reply I am doing several things at once here.....yes I have several concepts that I monitor intraday. They are mostly based on volatility and momemtum.

Edited November 4, 2011 by steve46

[TheNegotiator 13]

Did you take the 44's steve?

[joshdance 10]

This was an exceptional day....the Globex overnight was full of opportunity

and the RTH session was the same

 

Here is today's 12:30 reversal

 

I won't be posting these again

 

Good luck folks

 

This happened to coincide with 3:30pm ET, however it was hardly a good trade on such a bull dominated day. I also used to look for 2:00pm moves in crude oil, a half hour before close, and have noticed 3:30 moves in ES. But my point is that shorting because it's 3:30 there was not necessarily the best trade, though if one is going to short on a day like that, then the volume and time of day gives about as good a reason as any to try it if that's what you want.

[joshdance 10]

The test down to 38.75 at 12:45pm was by far the best long trade for the day, in terms of heat taken (none) and reward potential. Not until just after 12pm was there good confirmation of a long, though the order flow changed quite clearly around 11:20am to bullish. I planned to buy 39, but after seeing the test of 38.75 and quick pop up, I had my buy sitting at 39 and did not get filled. I should have been willing to pay up to 39.50 but did not unfortunately, and never got on the move up. (I posted this all real time at another site, just to verify that I'm not talking out of my *** and read it this way as it happened but don't want to post external links to other forums out of respect for N )

[steve46 12]

Did you take the 44's steve?

 

Here's my chart.....If by 44's you mean the tests of 1244 then yes I took two of them

 

Generally speaking I will take two of three tests....call it superstition, but I am inclined to think that often a third test is going to fail. So I passed on the last one which was actually a double tap.

 

Oh and Josh a good trade is any trade that makes money....unlike the Olympics, you don't win a medal for pointing your toes on the dismount.

 

For me, the goal is to find repeatable non-random behavior...and if can understand it and find a way to anticipate it....then I am going to trade it as long as it is profitable to do so. Couldn't care less whether the day is "dominated" by one side or the other.

 

You all have a nice weekend.

 

Steve

Edited November 5, 2011 by steve46

[joshdance 10]

Good point Steve!

 

Out of sheer curiosity, why do you use a 45s chart, as opposed to say a 1m or 30s chart?

[steve46 12]

I use several time frames....today I was using 45 seconds

 

Also I use two charts to make my decisions, DAX and ES I am experimenting with an offset between the two....in this case I was using 1 min on the DAX and 45 seconds on the ES,.

 

And Negotiator I apologize for the previous post....I see that I missed your point (44''s)

 

For me the 44's are given..they tested an inset on my node system and that is considered a strong signal to trade...so yes I took them...the 45s are also valid so I can take them however as mentioned I will only take two of three tests.

 

Best Regards

Steve

[TheNegotiator 13]

I agree about the 'whatever works' sentiment wholeheartedly. Although there's always room for refinement of a process. The 1244 entry was a nice one which also coincided with an area I was watching. I think the idea of the market moving around the last 30mins cash is not especially far fetched at all. Traders are motivated to trade as there's not much time left. If you watch what happens around the turn of each 30min period, you often see an increase in activity there too. Not necessarily to the same extent, but you do. Overall, it's similar to the end of a week/month/quarter/year. Big players are likely to be motivated to trade as a function of their reporting.

[TheNegotiator 13]

I have a chart this morning showing a few observations as to why the market is undecided but I am leaning a little to the up side. Friday was a doji, it was a neutral day and it was also an inside day. It did however close above my important band between the two long term volume distributions. For me, the indecision is building up for a break. If we don't see a break today, then all the more reason for it to move strongly when it does.

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

Sorry guys. Technical issue with chart I posted which I didn't have time to update. Just had the last 30mins missing. It doesn't change what I said apart from the doji.

 

[steve46 12]

Slept late today, but the market gave me a second chance to get in

 

The attached chart shows a reversal pattern that might have legs (we'll see)

 

The reversal is characterizied by volatility outside the normal (to the downside) followed by retrace up and then a "hesitation" move, that we call "test, test, test" before taking off to the upside...thos "up" tests are best seen when you read the tape (they register as tick lows except the last one, which is usually a higher high (if the move is to the upside)...

 

We were taught to interpret this market logic as part of a bigger sequence called reversal...continuation....trend....and (yes) reversal once again to complete the circle.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Yeah I took those 42s myself. The obvious 41.50 for a bit of supportive info, also lined up with a decent fibo ext of the IB. Not my favourite ext level but one which given the level and the action, was nice to see.

[Ants88 10]

Slept late today, but the market gave me a second chance to get in

 

The attached chart shows a reversal pattern that might have legs (we'll see)

 

I have an idea for traders sharing information Now the Moment. just like you did with your chart, only real time.

 

Like your opinion Now the Moment.

 

Edit: This thread is not for adverts for external sites.

Edited November 8, 2011 by TheNegotiator

[steve46 12]

My experience is that most of the interest in these solutions comes from folks who don't know how to trade, and are either unwilling or unable to pay for their education....Generally speaking those who do know how to trade find themselves trading on their own or with others who also know how to trade...

 

I do share my charts in real time with my students...and after that I sometimes publish them here....So far that is working quite well...no complaints from students and since there is no obligation to post here, I can do so when I have sufficient time...So far, this works for me.

 

Good luck with your idea

 

Steve

[TheNegotiator 13]

At the time of me writing this, ES is currently sitting at1265.75 bid having tested the first higher volume area of 1266.50 and retreating slightly from 1267.50. It is 08:13 EST and so there is plenty of time for the market to move back into the 3-day balance before RTH open. However, if we were to open above 1260.50 or get above it, the next important price other than 1266.50 is 75.25. Remember that we need to see development higher for the move to be sustained and not just tests higher. This means trading going on. Anyway, I've noted a number of important prices in the long term chart with the thicker dashed lines being my important prices for today. Not that they are automatically more important than other prices like the 1302.75, just that I'm more keenly watching reaction at them today.

[Ants88 10]

 

I do share my charts in real time with my students...

 

Good luck with your idea

 

Steve

 

Thanks steve46 for the response. A couple questions, and I'm not trying to be an idiot or jerk. But, why do you have students? I assume they pay you for the privilege...

 

So, why do you have paying students, if you can produce an income trading with the professionals?

 

Your answer might be, 'because my time and effort is worth something, and the student wants to pay for it - credible information has a price'.

 

Good answer. But are you trading for a living or teaching for a living? If you can teach for a living, why trade? If you can trade for a living, why teach?

 

We cannot earn a bachelors, masters and doctrine degree from the CME, can we? I'm not aware of any credited school which trains individuals to teach day trading.

 

My point is this. All of us are just as good and just as bad - as the woodies indicator trader or, the flip a coin trader or, the screen trader with a $3000 seat on the CME floor.

 

We are amateurs in comparison to Goldman. Period.

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Edited November 8, 2011 by TheNegotiator