Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[TheNegotiator 13]

Here is a chart to look at for the day. Today is the last trading day of a wild Q3 and so there is a good chance the day will be pretty volatile, or at least parts of it. No guarantees though. As this could be the case, I won't be getting too hung up on specific areas and I will proceed with caution!

[TheNegotiator 13]

Well it's a little late but here's my chart for the day. Just remember though, in news driven markets things can change very very quickly.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Good morning to everyone! Well the last couple of days have seen some interesting action haven't they?! But then again, we should really be getting used to this type of ridiculous behaviour by now.

 

In my chart, you will see I have extended my blue balance profile. This is probably a little premature as there's no absolute certainty that the last three days will end up part of the balance but I wanted to illustrate stucture, so that is why I have changed it for now.

 

I have put a micro view of the volume up from 9/22 more for today than anything else. I have also marked up some places for you to chew over pre-NFPs tomorrow, which I believe will be structurally important.

 

Happy trading!!

[TheNegotiator 13]

Nothing has changed today. My upper target would be around the 1180.75 after ES closed right on the money at 1158 yesterday closing the gap from 9/29 in the process. The NFP release pushed the market away from the 1157.50 but it remains to be seen whether there'll be enough strength to break away from it's control.

Edited October 10, 2011 by TheNegotiator

[TheNegotiator 13]

Basically, Friday the ES traversed the high volume around 1157.50 failing either side at low volume areas. The range was also not huge. If we are to move higher with possible tests of 1224/32, I'd want to see development above the 1180.75 low volume and last swing high 1190 and pretty soon. Failure below 1157.50, 44.75 and 38.75 and we could be in for a further push lower.

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

Just a quick note on the chart. The lower line shown just above 1137.75 should be at 1137.25 only.

[TheNegotiator 13]

I don't know about anyone else, but I really don't like this kind of movement.

 

[joshdance 10]

Only like this kind of day if you get in early long. Considered a long at 73 on the nice pullback, when 73 was the local POC at the time, but since then it's been a case of jump on if you want in.

[gosu 10]

Might as well be an official holiday, as Columbus Day is usually.

 

One good move from the open and then the market went into dry up before the morning was over. Even the move off the open was on medium pace. It looks like a trend day the way price is behaving, but with the funky volume, my volume calibrations are all off. It's a brief day for me.

 

Happy Columbus Day.

[TheNegotiator 13]

True. Given Europe news flow recently though and the fact many won't be in, sometimes you'll get a few good chances on a day like today.

 

(btw, like the new picture josh!)

[joshdance 10]

(btw, like the new picture josh!)

 

Thanks! ES has been fun so far.

[TimRacette 11]

One strategy that can be effective on "Gap & Go" days is (in today's case bullish) buying over the high of the first 5-min candle and trailing each prior 5-min candle's low. Vice versa for gap down Mondays.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Flipping a coin can also be affective in trade selection Tim. I think that employing an idea like this needs work in creating some more detailed rules and testing of efficacy. Do you do this on a large gap open only? Does it have to involve a range gap too? What are the chances a gap will be closed? What if the first 5min bar drives 10 points? Do you take the trade but severly cut the position size or do you pass as you only expect a 20 point range in total?

 

In short, what I am trying to illustrate as I am sure you well know, if you have an idea for a strategy, that doesn't make a plan. Anyone who has an idea but no plan is welcome to discuss it in this thread.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Good morning everyone! I hope you had a great long weekend if you skived off for Columbus day!

 

The day itself was good in some parts and mind numbing in others. As you can see we had a gap up and we closed at 1191.50, which is above the last swing high of 1190.00. Next up I am thinking is 95, mandatory 1200 then I can see us testing top 1224 and extending to test 1232. If we stay above 1180.50 (also 1174.75 on balance profile).

 

There are no guarantees right now. We're waiting for FOMC minutes and news from Europe. I expect a move on or close to open, followed by some consolidation/value building, followed by a move after minutes and into close. That's my order of the day anyway.

 

Edited October 11, 2011 by TheNegotiator

[joshdance 10]

We're waiting for FOMC minutes and news from Europe.

 

Is this scheduled?..

[TheNegotiator 13]

Is this scheduled?..

 

Er, it looks as though there may be a mistake in a few places. Some have today some have tomorrow. Hmm. I think it's going to be Wednesday looking at it. (well spotted)

[joshdance 10]

Just curious to get your thoughts. Obviously there's no stock answer but I'm always looking to pick brains.

 

Here we see 4 distinct areas of balance. Each has a pretty clearly defined high and low. When looking to buy at a pullback, generally will you be looking to buy the upper portion of a balance area, the low volume area between one of them, near the lower portion of a balance (as right now it's finding support at 89.50, for example, at 11:13am ET), or near the center, highest volume portion of the balance?

 

I suppose the answer ultimately must be, wait for price to confirm, and then act. However, what is your general thought process before this happens, if anything?

 

2011-10-11_1109 - joshtrader's library

[TheNegotiator 13]

It depends. It depends on the open type, profile shape, part of overall auction, how much of a move we've already had. Lots of things. Then of course what happens when it gets there. I'd certainly be cautious today for two reasons. 4 minor distrubutions isn't exactly a 'safe' structure and we've already hit a pretty decent target at 1194.75 and shown selling there.

 

(Btw, just checking but you did know there is an S&P net tick for dtn if you're interested. JT6T.Z.)

[TimRacette 11]

Ya it was just a setup I've used in the past for days when the market gaps up by 10+ points and we have an A/D Line reading of 1500+ and strong breadth.

[joshdance 10]

(Btw, just checking but you did know there is an S&P net tick for dtn if you're interested. JT6T.Z.)

 

I just checked it out, and it doesn't seem to register extremes as clearly as nyse tick, seems more "stable" ...

[TheNegotiator 13]

Ya it was just a setup I've used in the past for days when the market gaps up by 10+ points and we have an A/D Line reading of 1500+ and strong breadth.

 

So what is the 10+ points based on then? VIX, ATR or some other volatility based reading?

 

I just checked it out, and it doesn't seem to register extremes as clearly as nyse tick, seems more "stable" ...

 

Yeah. Some I'm sure will still prefer tick. But it filters out some of the less relevant tick movement. Anyway, it's an option to be aware of going forward.

Edited October 11, 2011 by TheNegotiator

[TheNegotiator 13]

Okay so Slovakia is due to agree ESFS today and we are to get the Sept FOMC minutes later on in the session(really this time!!). Yesterday we moved nicely from high volum on Monday to test 1195(1194.75 was high) then it was just flat. Relatively tight range after a swing higher has me thinking whichever way this breaks could set the mood for the next few days. This could be dependent on what happens later though, even taking into account ES has moved higher in the European session. Some nice areas have been defined if you draw a profile around the 2 days so far this week. However, if the market starts breaking because of news, I wouldn't necessarily just buy at them.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Wow, this market is trading really well! Not. My advice is this- if ever you start telling yourself that the market is just being stupid, take a step back.:crap:

[TheNegotiator 13]

Well yesterday afternoon showed a reversal late on which, imo isn't great reading if you're a bull. However, this market get's up to some interesting tricks nowadays, so if it isn't working don't fight it. There are some nice targets short term from prior 2-day balance and the broader profile, with a few targets on the up side from yesterday's profile too. Got to monitor what IS happening during the day. Good luck!

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

Yesterday afterall didn't really see any head way made on either side. Not to worry though. I did test down although it wasn't until overnight we saw a further decent move higher. Still Michigan to come, but things at the moment are looking promising for a test of upper targets, with the 1232 target a real possibility given recent ranges. Anyway, as always we'll read what does happen and trade off that.

 

Good luck!