Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[TheNegotiator 13]

Well so far we're actually pretty balanced. You never know being Friday. Could be a late break, but at the moment we're not showing signs of an appetite for that.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Wow, Monday already! Hope everyone had a great weekend.

 

Here's a quick chart before open.

 

If the 1127 vol holds, we could be gunning to close the Thurs gap.

 

Edit: the chart should read prominent 2-day vpoc.

Edited September 26, 2011 by TheNegotiator

[TheNegotiator 13]

Well my idea for yesterday worked pretty well. Test high vol from 2 days, then attempt to close gap. Here's the chart.

[TheNegotiator 13]

My references would broadly be yesterday's close/1157.50 and pre-Fed 4-day range 1181.50-1214.50 with points as in chart here from that 4-day balance:-

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/e-mini-futures-trading-laboratory/9773-day-trading-e-mini-futures-24.html#post128401

[TheNegotiator 13]

Anyone sell the 4-day balance low at 1181.50? Worked pretty nicely by my reckoning...

[TheNegotiator 13]

We've not even traded a 10 point range so far today! There's a big gap below which will be looking pretty appealing the longer it goes without a push higher here. As in the chart, I have 1166 then 1157.50/58 and 1194.50/95 on the up side. For a move up I'd want to see it build above 81.50 and vice versa for a test down.

[TheDude 10]

Neat thread.

 

Yeah - I was just getting ready to short - the high at 1190-- was on pathetic volume, so it was just a matter of waiting for the last of them to give up - which seemed high probability to me when the market came down to 1188--

 

Then there was the 13.30 CT (start) auction that gave the signal of a 80% chance of going to value low. The rest was gravy. I was hoping to see the gap close and cover at 58's - maybe tomorrow

[joshdance 10]

I don't trade ES but this looks mouth-watering...

 

For those of you who trade ES every day, how well does ES normally respond to volume as in this chart?

[MightyMouse 12]

I don't trade ES but this looks mouth-watering...

 

For those of you who trade ES every day, how well does ES normally respond to volume as in this chart?

 

Josh,

 

The volume reaction is mixed. Sometimes it repels it and sometimes it seems to attract price. You need to know more about the volume to anticipate what the response might be when price approaches that area.

 

So, if a lot of that volume was from traders shorting or selling, then there could be a lot of buying (short covering) the next time up or it could have difficulty pushing through that area if there wasn't a lot of shorting. If that Volume was from a lot of buying or short covering, then price may repel or struggle to go back down.

 

The market needs a lot of traders willing to bid lower or offer higher than the current price to move in one direction or the other.

 

 

MM

[TheNegotiator 13]

I don't trade ES but this looks mouth-watering...

 

For those of you who trade ES every day, how well does ES normally respond to volume as in this chart?

 

If you are looking at the profile in context, it frequently reacts like this to high and low volume areas. Like any 'levels' though, which I'm sure you know from using vp on crude, they can hold or they can break. Either way they'll tell you something.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Neat thread.

 

Yeah - I was just getting ready to short - the high at 1190-- was on pathetic volume, so it was just a matter of waiting for the last of them to give up - which seemed high probability to me when the market came down to 1188--

 

Then there was the 13.30 CT (start) auction that gave the signal of a 80% chance of going to value low. The rest was gravy. I was hoping to see the gap close and cover at 58's - maybe tomorrow

 

Did you sell it? There were a few chances to jump on the move down and it was a nice big move. The 1162.75 low is actually a low vol on the blue big balance profile. The fact that there was a pretty strong reaction prior to the gap and the massive 1157.50 high vol being touched says we could be wanting to test higher. There's a chance the gap will be closed first or indeed that PIIGS related news will come out and put that idea to bed. I still want to see development and a close in that 4-day range if we are to move higher. Ultimately I would like to see a test of low volume around 1231 area.

[joshdance 10]

After having a crappy day trading oil, and watching ES for the last hour, I'm considering trading ES tomorrow to see how I like it. I tried ES a while back and found it very slow, but after trading CL during volatility last week, and just the nature of it being generally quite fast, ES leaves me with a feeling of calm when I watch it move.

 

I tried an order for a long at 1154.50 at 2:52pm but missed the fill by a tick. And I paper shorted 61 at 3:13pm, which would have resulted in a nice trade if real money. This is an incredibly small sample size, but generally the movement seems similar to CL and any market, just slower than CL obviously.

 

Incidentally, I am not blaming CL for my recent losses, as I did quite well early in September but have found myself out of sync the last week. I realize that changing an instrument won't make me a better trader, but I'm considering the possibility that ES is simply better suited for me than CL. With 6x less margin required to trade, and with less volatility than oil generally, I feel it may give me the calm I'm seeking.

 

From my previous experience with ES, I recall thinking that it was VERY difficult to trade, and I'm up against the best professional traders in the world. So, with that being said, those of you who trade ES every day, please give me a reason why I should or should not give it a try. Thanks for any practical advice you may have!

[TheNegotiator 13]

Hi Josh,

 

We've all been there, questioning what we are doing when things aren't going as well as we hope. There are times when we mess up and there are times when the market is just damn hard to read I'm afraid. Everything thing is context based and relative to what an individual is used to. Trading ES after CL I'm sure seems calmer. But you'll see that to gain the same sorts of profits on a trade you'll trade bigger size, so smaller volatility increases become amplified. I wouldn't jump out of trading oil, but if you have auction basics down and you seem to know vp, there is no reason to suggest you couldn't trade a different product. Maybe one step at a time though. Have you looked at the russell? Also YM/NQ. I'd definitely suggest looking at the russell though (@TFS# I think) due to the way it moves. It might just be that happy medium for you. Btw, don't trade it live until you are comfortable with it! (I know you know that though )

[gosu 10]

* * *

From my previous experience with ES, I recall thinking that it was VERY difficult to trade, and I'm up against the best professional traders in the world. So, with that being said, those of you who trade ES every day, please give me a reason why I should or should not give it a try. Thanks for any practical advice you may have!

 

I neither encourage nor discourage. However, if you decide to trade the index futures, my practical advice is to use this:

 

U.S. Economic Calendar

 

Also get yourself a good earnings calendar.

[joshdance 10]

I neither encourage nor discourage. However, if you decide to trade the index futures, my practical advice is to use this:

 

U.S. Economic Calendar

 

Also get yourself a good earnings calendar.

 

Believe it or not, US news moves oil quite a bit most of the time So, this is the first thing I open every day (actually the night before--and I don't use this particular calendar but a different one).

[joshdance 10]

Hi Josh,

 

We've all been there, questioning what we are doing when things aren't going as well as we hope. There are times when we mess up and there are times when the market is just damn hard to read I'm afraid. Everything thing is context based and relative to what an individual is used to. Trading ES after CL I'm sure seems calmer. But you'll see that to gain the same sorts of profits on a trade you'll trade bigger size, so smaller volatility increases become amplified. I wouldn't jump out of trading oil, but if you have auction basics down and you seem to know vp, there is no reason to suggest you couldn't trade a different product. Maybe one step at a time though. Have you looked at the russell? Also YM/NQ. I'd definitely suggest looking at the russell though (@TFS# I think) due to the way it moves. It might just be that happy medium for you. Btw, don't trade it live until you are comfortable with it! (I know you know that though )

 

Perhaps it's just my "outsiders" perspective, but profiles on ES seem to be more "respected" than on other instruments. Are you suggesting russell because it's faster than ES, but not as fast as oil? I've also looked at russell before and taken a trade or two, but not any more than ES.

[gosu 10]

Believe it or not, US news moves oil quite a bit most of the time So, this is the first thing I open every day (actually the night before--and I don't use this particular calendar but a different one).

 

That's good to know. I trade just the stock indexes and have never monitored CL. I've thought about adding more markets to trade but then I realize I don't want to work that hard.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Perhaps it's just my "outsiders" perspective, but profiles on ES seem to be more "respected" than on other instruments. Are you suggesting russell because it's faster than ES, but not as fast as oil? I've also looked at russell before and taken a trade or two, but not any more than ES.

 

Exactly. But try it and try ES again and just see whether either feel right.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Here's a simple idea for me in ES today. 1162.75 is key. It was 2-day low which was tested twice before it broke yesterday amd it was also where after the break happened, we pulled back to before continuing the sell-off.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Here's a simple idea for me in ES today. 1162.75 is key. It was 2-day low which was tested twice before it broke yesterday amd it was also where after the break happened, we pulled back to before continuing the sell-off.

 

Btw I missed an arrow in the chart to the close of gap to yesterday's close 49.25.

[TheNegotiator 13]

I wanted to share a little trade with you noting how an area is approached and how non-reaction to the area can be just as important as reaction.

[joshdance 10]

Btw I missed an arrow in the chart to the close of gap to yesterday's close 49.25.

 

Do you consider the close more significant than the settlement? In terms of gaps perhaps?

 

BTW, watching ES today, took one scratch trade so far, and had a limit just now to sell at 61.25, but it ticked to 60.00 and reversed down. 61.25 was the VPOC of the move down from earlier today. Almost but no cigar!

[TheNegotiator 13]

I look at the close for gaps but I also will look at profile gaps too(i.e. gaps from one day's range to the next) if there is enough difference. Btw just look where that 1161 is. Pretty close to midpoint and the base of that little area I circled which built just prior to the 1157.50 being taken out for the first time. Just shows how if you monitor the market properly, in tells a story. Not just some numbers on a chart so to speak.

[joshdance 10]

Btw just look where that 1161 is. Pretty close to midpoint and the base of that little area I circled which built just prior to the 1157.50 being taken out for the first time.

 

That's what I did basically, only not seeing your chart first, I profiled the move down and the volume was concentrated there. This is basically what you're saying, yes?

[TheNegotiator 13]

That's what I did basically, only not seeing your chart first, I profiled the move down and the volume was concentrated there. This is basically what you're saying, yes?

 

Pretty much yes.

 

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