Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[joshdance 10]

Thanks for the helpful charts N -- even though I don't trade the s&p, I learn from looking at your chart.

 

I do have one small request--the font that you type on the chart with is a little hard to read.. could you use something more commonly readable like arial?

[TheNegotiator 13]

Lol yeah okay. I think I need to make it a little bigger too. Any parts which you didn't get that I can post again?

[joshdance 10]

Lol yeah okay. I think I need to make it a little bigger too. Any parts which you didn't get that I can post again?

 

Nope, I can read it, I just have to strain to do so Thanks buddy.

[TheNegotiator 13]

A few more thoughts with an updated font size/type!

 

Anyone else have any views right now on any of the minis(or any other product for that matter)? Remember we're certainly not restricted to volume profiling on this thread if anyone else has some nice ideas.

[joshdance 10]

CL traded above yesterday's VA in globex, and is now searching for buyers inside the VA, at yesterday's POC, and VWAP. Just found support, will see if it's strong enough to hold (does not look like it to me at the moment but will wait to see. I will look to buy somewhere in that area if it dips again.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Looks to me if 86.15 holds, maybe a move towards y'day low could be in the offing?

[joshdance 10]

Found good support at yesterday's VPOC, VWAP, close. I held a long briefly 2 ticks from the low at .76 but was shaken out... did not execute well, great premise, should still be long at this point.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Bad luck- just don't take it into your next trade.

 

I wanted to show this example of how the middle low vol of a double distribution can be a good reference point- even if it did move back down subsequently, there was a 5/6 point move there.

[joshdance 10]

The resulting movement (that I longed once and tried to fade more than once, unfortunately).

[TheNegotiator 13]

Yeah, it's sometimes the way that when you get annoyed with yourself after getting out of a good trade you end up trading pretty irrationally. A strong reaction after a turn in a well considered area is something I doubt you'd normally want to fade right? I think there's value sometimes in setting yourself a "lockdown" period after a trade doesn't go so well. If you do this kind of thing regularly, it's worth trying at least.

[joshdance 10]

Yeah, it's sometimes the way that when you get annoyed with yourself after getting out of a good trade you end up trading pretty irrationally. A strong reaction after a turn in a well considered area is something I doubt you'd normally want to fade right? I think there's value sometimes in setting yourself a "lockdown" period after a trade doesn't go so well. If you do this kind of thing regularly, it's worth trying at least.

 

The funny thing is, I took a long on a pullback to .21, but got out for a relatively small profit (20 ticks I think) because I expected a deeper retrace... nope, the market had other ideas! Even though I missed the first entry, getting in 50 ticks higher and holding a bit would have yielded a nice trade.

 

At any rate, just now I have a nice +41 tick trade, and calling it a day, so I'm considering myself fortunate that I live to see another day after trading so poorly.

[TheNegotiator 13]

We can't always trade brilliantly, but we can strive to maintain control and a clear head no matter what the outcome of an individual trade.

[joshdance 10]

We can't always trade brilliantly, but we can strive to maintain control and a clear head no matter what the outcome of an individual trade.

 

Excellent advice negotiator -- as someone said to me, "if you don't experience this kind of thing, you will never improve and get better" -- a level-headed approach I think. It's not that we want to mess up, but I think any seasoned trader has his fair share of stories involving mini-meltdowns and blowups and days that he'd like to forget. I think we just have to survive while improving. Blowing up and blowing an account is no good, but taking a few bonehead trades and learning from it while not losing much money can be valuable in the long run, if we change for the better from it.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Well yesterday fitted in pretty nicely with the scenario of further distribution within the 3 day range, with there being 2 distributions again. Both had the bulk of the volume done at the extremes(although the lower was at close) so business is being down at either end. This isn't unsur[rising given fomc is today imo. An interesting point is though that the 14.50 is now a double top. Of course, this could be blown out at any time given news etc so we'll have to see what plays out.

 

Btw, when I say mirrored in the picture, I mean by the distribution boundaries not their shape.

[TheNegotiator 13]

What a day yesterday! I hope everyone did okay. The astute will have noticed the 4 day balance was effectively a doji and this was not really that surprising given that the FOMC announcement was due. A break down from the balance was followed by an attempt to get back into it. However, when this failed the resulting move down was substantial although not surprising either. Anyway more overnight selling looks to me like we want to explore whether value is to be found at the lower high volume in the distribution.

 

Any thoughts guys?

[joshdance 10]

The first chart is a 15m crude chart. The colored profile to the left is from globex open up until the pit open at 9am. After the pit opened it dropped further below as you can see. When it came back up, sellers tried to sell it off again from the middle of the lower balance area. However, buyers strongly pushed it up into the second. It stopped right at the POC of the balance (well within 5 ticks anyway, crude doesn't just stop at .15 without going to .20), and came tumbling back down.

 

The second chart shows a profile of the move down. After a retracement back up, the second chart shows where sellers felt was a good value to sell at--the concentration of volume of the entire move down from the top. My premise was to short .25 which was a very high volume price, but after it broke north of this I was a bit scared off and didn't take the short. Either way, I love how profiling maps the market.

[TheNegotiator 13]

First chart I noticed it checked the lower distribution before it made new lows. Fading as it moved towards the 25s would've been a nice little trade but when it didn't sell off after failing on a 2nd attempt, I'd have been getting out. Interestingly though, the 25s vpoc wasn't produced by price acceptance as such. Looks to me like a battle which someone lost and probably had already covered when it sold off. The price acceptance was in the area you highlighted around 81.40 I'm guessing just looking at the chart and this is where it tested before moving down again. Just a note on entries around high volume, markets don't always turn on a dime from the peak price. Remember it's an area of acceptance. It also depends how it's approached and how fat(volume-wise)/narrow(range-wise) the area is.

[joshdance 10]

Just a note on entries around high volume, markets don't always turn on a dime from the peak price. Remember it's an area of acceptance. It also depends how it's approached and how fat(volume-wise)/narrow(range-wise) the area is.

 

Thanks N--could you elaborate a little on your last sentence?

[joshdance 10]

Here is today's profile so far from globex open until 8:23am. Balance at the top and bottom, and vacuum in between. Is this pretty much what you see? Sometimes price will go fill in that vacancy.

[TheNegotiator 13]

High volume areas are where previous value was being found with both buyers and sellers present. If the market say quickly approaches an area which is quite wide with many high volume prices, if it does stop, as there was less agreement before on value, there is no reason for me to think it will definitely stop on the price with slightly higher volume. There's good reason however for me to think it'll stop in that area. But I wouldn't be standing in the way of the price anyway. Gotta see what happens when it gets there.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Here is today's profile so far from globex open until 8:23am. Balance at the top and bottom, and vacuum in between. Is this pretty much what you see? Sometimes price will go fill in that vacancy.

 

Can you post that definition?

[joshdance 10]

Can you post that definition?

 

Attached.. thanks for previous post N, quite helpful.

 

I don't know exactly what is exported, but be aware that some of the indicators used on the chart for VWAP etc. may set V# variables so I wouldn't want it to mess with your setup inadvertently.

CL 5m.txt

[joshdance 10]

A view of this week tells a clear story!

[TheNegotiator 13]

Some ideas on crude.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Okay so (right before open I know!!) here are some ideas for today. Could be quite volatile, so pick your trades, don't get sucked in, don't get married to the trade and manage your risk!