What Really Works for Technical Traders

[phantom 16]

Thank you phantom.

 

But why rat-tail, this phenomenon is common to many?

 

Its just something I coined awhile back because that's what it looked like to me...

 

 

Luv,

Phantom

[phantom 16]

So,

 

I've given y'all a tried and true way of approaching the markets, I've even had a few PM's and emails touting success for those with the fortitude to watch and try...

 

I've read all over the site that people are failing miserably at trading. I don't doubt that one bit. The 90% failure number remains intact even though the information has been made available on how to turn that around...

 

What exactly are you folks looking for when you spend your time on a website such as this one? It cannot possibly be trading success... except for the limited few...

 

If you have been following this thread and you are still a trading failure, ARE YOU EVEN PAPER TRADING THIS METHODOLOGY??? Or are you simply engaging in mental masturbation?

 

I really don't know what else to say...

[pat15 10]

phantom, cees Just a comment on the chart posted by cees and reply from phantom... It seems to me I wont consider a S here since the MACD is not below the zero line .. may be that is the reason price action led to upward movement ?

 

another Q: phantom do you monitor a number of futures/commodity charts and keep looking to see which one is getting setup and then focus on it ?

 

Regards

 

 

Pat

[phantom 16]

phantom, cees Just a comment on the chart posted by cees and reply from phantom... It seems to me I wont consider a S here since the MACD is not below the zero line .. may be that is the reason price action led to upward movement ?

 

another Q: phantom do you monitor a number of futures/commodity charts and keep looking to see which one is getting setup and then focus on it ?

 

The MACD filter is always an important consideration, but more important is the price action itself.

 

In Cees example, the market broke slightly, only to retest the high. I would redraw the support line to include the lows established near the lower envelope of the Bollinger band, near the 1.4280 price level. A subsequent break of this level, followed by a failed test, would signal a sell in my book.

 

Yes, I do in fact monitor a chosen few markets and await consolidations in those markets so that I can trade the signaled breakouts when they occur.

 

 

Luv,

Phantom

[pat15 10]

Thanks phantom ... it seems consolidation is a necessary condition for your setups ..as shown in some of your examples ... the chart cees posted looks like a up move and pullback and then continuation upward...at that point. you are correct price action supersedes indicators ..

 

If I may ask in response to my Q re looking at some futs, currencies etc and monitor them .. I plan to do the following and would appreciate your input/comments.

 

1) Monitor 120, 60 m charts for trend like hitting the upper/lower BB band

2) once an extreme level in price reaches look for consolidation on 15, 20 m charts

3) Look for the setup after some consolidation ...use the macd filter to help in setup

4) Look for a rat tail etc now for entry and a stop ..

5) Stop is +1, 2 ticks higher than the entry bar

 

In this high Vol environment past week, your setups will force one to move to more calmer futs such as commodities ? emini futs such as TF ES etc were very wild ..[just impossible to trade]

 

Would appreciate if you cud post some charts of the entries you had taken past week..if possible

 

Thank you

 

 

Pat

[phantom 16]

Thanks phantom ... it seems consolidation is a necessary condition for your setups ..as shown in some of your examples ... the chart cees posted looks like a up move and pullback and then continuation upward...at that point. you are correct price action supersedes indicators ..

 

If I may ask in response to my Q re looking at some futs, currencies etc and monitor them .. I plan to do the following and would appreciate your input/comments.

 

1) Monitor 120, 60 m charts for trend like hitting the upper/lower BB band

2) once an extreme level in price reaches look for consolidation on 15, 20 m charts

3) Look for the setup after some consolidation ...use the macd filter to help in setup

4) Look for a rat tail etc now for entry and a stop ..

5) Stop is +1, 2 ticks higher than the entry bar

 

In this high Vol environment past week, your setups will force one to move to more calmer futs such as commodities ? emini futs such as TF ES etc were very wild ..[just impossible to trade]

 

On point #2: I don't have to wait for the BB extreme... I want ANY range along a market's path. Why wait for the extreme if a solid setup is right before your eyes?

 

On point #5: stop is higher on a sell, lower on a buy

 

This past week has been crazy, as you said. I have been KILLING IT in the CL, but I'm using a different approach than the one I outlined for you folks on this thread.

 

I'm trading Linda Raschke's "ANTI" setups from the Street Smarts book. I've been trading this setup for many years and it's the BOMB. If you don't have the book...oh well...better get it b4 it becomes unavailable...

 

 

Luv,

Phantom

[eplum 10]

Phantom - I've been combing through a few different markets studying the Price Rejection Setup, and I am starting to see it more clearly. In trying to determine valid setups, what would you say is the rough win rate vs. loss rate on this setup (when analyzed correctly)?

 

From my brief study over the last few weeks, I am seeing about a 40% win rate.

[phantom 16]

Phantom - I've been combing through a few different markets studying the Price Rejection Setup, and I am starting to see it more clearly. In trying to determine valid setups, what would you say is the rough win rate vs. loss rate on this setup (when analyzed correctly)?

 

From my brief study over the last few weeks, I am seeing about a 40% win rate.

 

Which markets are you looking at?

 

And how would you manage the trades once you would be in?

Edited August 13, 2011 by phantom

[pat15 10]

Thank you for the comments. I got the book from library this PM and got to the setup you pointed out 'ANTY' and I am going thru it now ..to understand the setup ...looks simple enuf but the examples shown are for Daily charts.

 

Do you first see this setup on Daily chart then move to say 20m 15m charts OR some other timeframe for the entry? I would appreciate if you could post a few charts on CL that you had taken on the past week - with so much turmoil in the market.

 

I will begin to look at this setup with CL charts of the past week and see where I go with it. This could also be a setup that you could show some examples of it - if you choose to do so. Just a few examples of charts would be adequate for the way you take the setups.

 

I must say that for me looking at some charts and the setups from those who are v good at trading gives me the confidence that the setups work and focus myself on be able to see them during the live sessions is a big help. Real time price action and be able to see the setup in real time is forming and recognize it - and have the confidence to take it. Still working on it.

 

Your charts have been of immense help to me.

 

Regards

 

 

Pat

[phantom 16]

Thank you for the comments. I got the book from library this PM and got to the setup you pointed out 'ANTY' and I am going thru it now ..to understand the setup ...looks simple enuf but the examples shown are for Daily charts.

 

Do you first see this setup on Daily chart then move to say 20m 15m charts OR some other timeframe for the entry? I would appreciate if you could post a few charts on CL that you had taken on the past week - with so much turmoil in the market.

 

I will begin to look at this setup with CL charts of the past week and see where I go with it. This could also be a setup that you could show some examples of it - if you choose to do so. Just a few examples of charts would be adequate for the way you take the setups.

 

I must say that for me looking at some charts and the setups from those who are v good at trading gives me the confidence that the setups work and focus myself on be able to see them during the live sessions is a big help. Real time price action and be able to see the setup in real time is forming and recognize it - and have the confidence to take it. Still working on it.

 

Your charts have been of immense help to me.

 

I know for a fact that Raschke trades this setup on 5 min ES charts (I used to be a member in her trading room).

 

Truly, this is such a robust method that you can trade it on 1 minute insect charts (lol).

 

Anyway, I look at 20 tic range charts in CL, 20 tic range charts in ZN, 20 tic range charts in GC, 15 tic range charts in NG; the list could go on and on...

 

I use my 5/13/13 macd instead of her 4/7/10 macd cuz I'm married to it...

 

But I think that you need to tinker with it a bit so that you're comfortable with the entries...

 

Look Pat, I really wasn't going to give this away to my readers. It's sooooo powerful in the hands of an experienced trader...

 

I'll post a chart or two later, maybe, but I would really like you to roll up your sleeves and do some research on your own first (remember my previous comment on spoon feeding?)

 

Raschke's book has another setup called "Holy Grail," but in my mind, this setup blows that one away, any day of the week.

 

Get a little dirty, do some serious research. and soon you'll be making PHAT money too.

 

Can I be any plainer than this?

 

 

I'm SUCH a pushover...

 

 

Luv,

Phantom

[IamJon 10]

Phantom,

 

I don't think I could ever thank you enough. The thing is Raschke uses a Stoch for the anti (at least in the book). How are you using the macd instead of stoch hooks?

 

Thanks,

 

J.

[eplum 10]

I was looking primarily at the 6E, ZC, NG, and the CL, 15 minute candles.

 

The exit strategy was simply hit the target or stop out.

 

- Stop loss is hit one tick above/below rat tail entry bar

- Targets are determined 1 of 2 ways;

a. Near term low/high that is 2-3 times the risk

b. If the break occurs as part of a larger pattern (such as a 60 or 120min head and

shoulders) the target of the larger pattern would take precedent.

[phantom 16]

Phantom,

 

I don't think I could ever thank you enough. The thing is Raschke uses a Stoch for the anti (at least in the book). How are you using the macd instead of stoch hooks?

 

A little rum goes a long way...

 

You are right. She does use a stoch.

 

I use the fast line versus the slow line on the macd in the same manner that she uses the %k versus the %d.

 

I like my way better...

 

But that doesn't mean you have to...

 

Do the research and see what works best for you...

 

Think I'll go raid the liquor cabinet again...

 

 

Bottoms up!

Phantom

[pat15 10]

I agree phantom that ANTY is much easier to follow than the other strategy .. will have to see how it works in real trading and the setups .. Will setup the charts based on this and the timeframes you have mentioned on CL. Still paper trade on CL but I keep looking at the charts with your earlier methodology.

 

Also agree that %K %D cud be substituted with macd .. Easier to refer to one indicator than switch around etc but to each his own...

 

Just wanted to ask why you find this ANTY setups better in high volatile mkts like the one we had last week? compared to your previous method you had described in detail.

 

Regards

 

 

Pat

[IamJon 10]

A little rum goes a long way...

 

You are right. She does use a stoch.

 

I use the fast line versus the slow line on the macd in the same manner that she uses the %k versus the %d.

 

I like my way better...

 

But that doesn't mean you have to...

 

Do the research and see what works best for you...

 

Think I'll go raid the liquor cabinet again...

 

 

Bottoms up!

Phantom

 

P,

 

I'll do my homework and figure out what works best for me.

I am glad this thread is still alive. Enough kibble makes for a hearty meal.

 

Enjoy the weekend.

 

Thanks always,

 

J.

[phantom 16]

I was looking primarily at the 6E, ZC, NG, and the CL, 15 minute candles.

 

The exit strategy was simply hit the target or stop out.

 

- Stop loss is hit one tick above/below rat tail entry bar

- Targets are determined 1 of 2 ways;

a. Near term low/high that is 2-3 times the risk

b. If the break occurs as part of a larger pattern (such as a 60 or 120min head and

shoulders) the target of the larger pattern would take precedent.

 

On point a: I really don't trade the smaller range breakouts, so I couldn't tell you a winning %

 

On point b: since I only look for range breakouts in conjunction with longer term charts, and I really focus on tightly knit channels like 4-6 bar sideways channels off the 120 chart, my winning % is more like 67% in the euro and corn markets. NG is closer to 40%. CL is pretty new to me; I'm trading the ANTI more than the range breakouts in this market due to its proclivity for quick reversals.

[phantom 16]

Just wanted to ask why you find this ANTY setups better in high volatile mkts like the one we had last week? compared to your previous method you had described in detail.

 

Highly volatile markets are prone to quick reversals and the ANTI setups are more of a "hit and run" trading method than the other stuff.

 

Its a real bitch to wait forever for a market like CL to produce a solid setup only to follow through minimally, while I could have been surgically removing SHLOADS of money in the meantime...

 

Its not uncommon to have several trades each day in the current CL environment.

 

 

Luv,

Phantom

[pat15 10]

here is a chart based on ANTY setup and as per phantom timeframe and macd setting. I have marked the S and L locations ...based on the strategy defined in Street smarts. P if you get a chance to look at it ..any comments will be appreciated.

 

Hope the chart shows up. Attaching ti for the first time.

 

#2 S failed it seems ... #1 and #3 worked well.

 

#1 L failed too. #2 and #3 worked well.

 

 

pat

[phantom 16]

here is a chart based on ANTY setup and as per phantom timeframe and macd setting. I have marked the S and L locations ...based on the strategy defined in Street smarts. P if you get a chance to look at it ..any comments will be appreciated.

 

Hope the chart shows up. Attaching ti for the first time.

 

#2 S failed it seems ... #1 and #3 worked well.

 

#1 L failed too. #2 and #3 worked well.

 

 

pat

 

What settings are you using for the macd? It doesn't look anything like mine...

[pat15 10]

Thanks phantom for the explanation ...geez I was thinking the opposite of what you said However, it is clear now that ANTY is a hit & run setup but need to be very careful ... Watching the ES & TF last week ...no way one cud use a stop even 3, 4 or 5 pts on these futs ..mkt was so volatile that these stops or even greater than these #s wud have been hit. I did not trade as I was clearly not up to the task of been able to use any kind of stops.

 

But a friend who trades well said these are the times to make hay while the sun shines .. and they dont come by often. Well will work on my understandings of this ANTY setup in real time and do some paper trades. If others who are following this setup .cud post some comments / charts will be a good start to look at this setup along with phantom previous setup that he described in detail.

 

Regards

 

 

pat

[pat15 10]

phantom I am using the macd setting of 5, 13, 13 that is

Ave 1 5 exp

Ave 2 13 simple

Ave 13 simple

 

sorry should have used Ave 1 as 5 simple?

 

Thank you for the help.

 

 

Regards

 

 

Pat

[IamJon 10]

Pat,

 

I believe they should all be exponential.

 

J.

[pat15 10]

Iam You may be right ..'exp' settings gives the setup earlier than the 'simple' settings ..but one can also look at the rat tails that phantom mentioned ..in this setup too...However, experience and confidence counts a lot in trading and obviously phantom has been at it for a long time.

 

Real time price action and being able to see the setup quick and take it .. comes with time and study the charts of exprienced traders ...

 

I hope phantom will keep this thread going so we cud share charts and his setups of the previous day.

 

Regards

 

 

pat

[phantom 16]

Pat,

 

I believe they should all be exponential.

 

J.

 

Actually, I only use simple moving averages in everything I do...

[phantom 16]

phantom I am using the macd setting of 5, 13, 13 that is

Ave 1 5 exp

Ave 2 13 simple

Ave 13 simple

 

sorry should have used Ave 1 as 5 simple?

 

Thank you for the help.

 

 

I use sma's.

 

Also, I only take sell signals if both fast and slow lines are below the zero line; I only take buy signals if both lines are above the zero line.

 

Less signals, better reliability.

 

 

Luv,

Phantom