What Really Works for Technical Traders

[mslk 10]

RE:How much of my trading is automated?

 

I haven't automated any of my trading. 100% manual.

 

 

Luv,

Phantom

 

very interesting ... instead of making a tangent on your thread i'll start another to discuss this topic ...

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/technical-analysis/10442-manual-automated-trading.html

 

-mslk

[Tams 20]

I read a book not too long ago written by a world-renowned artist who claimed that she received a visitation from Lord Jesus Christ and he asked her to paint his portrait.

 

While she painted him, for a period of about 4 months, they conversed on a wide variety of topics covering everything from the Bible to the future of the world.

 

One of the key points that Jesus made was that we should express gratitude, even on a daily basis.

 

Now there are givers in this world, and there are also takers.

Mostly, the givers ask very little from the takers, save for a little gratitude.

But, the takers are not even capable of supplying even that.

 

Take this forum, for example.

 

I see a proportionately very small amount of givers on the site extending a helping hand to a multitude of takers, and in return, gratitude is withheld, but criticism abounds.

 

What is it about people, that they will take, take, take, without even saying "thank you?"

 

I know that this post has nothing to do with technical analysis, but it has everything to do with common courtesy. I feel that I need to "go to bat" for the givers on this site, who expend a lot of mental energy to give, with very little in return.

 

Take this thread for example. Well over 13000 views. Less than 72 "thank you" expressions. Are that many people really that indifferent to the trading knowledge being dispensed?

 

Take another example. Maelstrom's "Trading The Storm."

Well over 9000 views and only 5 people "liked" it?

 

What's wrong with this picture?

 

I can't speak for Maelstrom, or for anyone else who gives and gives and gives,

but I will say that if there isn't a lot more gratitude dispensed on this thread, I will assume that my lessons are falling on deaf ears and I will discontinue revealing anything else.

 

Thank you to everyone who HAS given the courtesy of showing gratitude for that which they have received. Blessings to you.

 

 

Phantom

 

you seem insecure about the value of your own writings.

[phantom 16]

RE: Insecurity

 

TAMS,

 

Not so much about the value of my writings so much as the value of my friendships.

 

I'm an emotional kind of guy.

 

I was born that way. What's your excuse?

 

 

Phantom

 

BTW, I noticed you removed your "like" of the post you cited. Any particular reason?

Edited July 28, 2011 by phantom

[phantom 16]

I noticed you removed your "like" of the post you cited. Any particular reason?

 

Never mind, tams. I'm done sparring.

 

I'll just chalk your input up to your cantankerous nature.

 

 

Phantom

[phantom 16]

I saw Larry Williams three different times at the Las Vegas Traders Expo back in the '90's.

 

Larry is a fascinating fellow, and he has made a SHLOAD of money trading the big board S&P as well as the 30 yr bond market contracts.

 

He is not particularly fond of pattern trading.

 

He is not a fundamental analysis trader, per se. (He trades with the commercials, though)

 

So how does he make his millions?

 

Volatility breakouts!

 

There must be something to this...

[IamJon 10]

Phantom,

 

Glad to see were back on topic.

 

Wouldn't the use of range bars obscure the volatility?

 

J.

[phantom 16]

Phantom,

 

Glad to see were back on topic.

 

Wouldn't the use of range bars obscure the volatility?

 

J.

 

Good question.

 

Short answer: not when they are used in conjunction with Bollinger bands.

[pat15 10]

Many thanks phantom for the charts on CL... You are quite correct that 15m chart will give very long bars due to the extreme vol in CL ..Now that I look at the charts you posted they look far easier to spot b/o from consolidation levels cuz of the range bars on the charts ..

 

Next I will look at these 30R charts on CL for the next week and pick any entry points and post them..(no real trading ofcourse in this contract for me until later)

 

One thing I have noticed tho ...even on 15m charts CL has a tedency to hold levels to the tick many times .. One can draw S/R levels on 15m or higher time frame charts and watch how price reacts to these levels ..

 

For now, I will look at the 30R bars charts you have shown in the examples. Thank you for your help.

 

 

Pat

[phantom 16]

RE: Do range bars obscure the volatility picture?

 

When I trade time charts, I look for consolidation breakout bars which have a much larger range than the bars inside the consolidation. These bars are considered volatility bars. They tell me that the market is moving with a thrust of activity.

 

When I trade range bar charts, I still look for pinches in the Bollinger band that coincide with consolidation ranges. This tells me that the volatility of the market is subsiding. But since every bar is the same length, I can't look for individual bars that show me a range expansion. So the thrusting of price action is obscured.

 

The trade is based on the overall market volatility, but the actual consolidation breakout isn't necessarily a volatility breakout per se. It could be, but the range bars do in fact obscure this.

 

Sorry for the confusion.

 

 

Luv,

Phantom

Edited July 29, 2011 by phantom

[phantom 16]

One thing I have noticed on 15m charts. CL has a tendency to hold levels to the tick many times .. One can draw S/R levels on 15m or higher time frame charts and watch how price reacts to these levels ..

 

Exactly right. I still monitor 120 minute charts to see S/R and BB extremes, etc., just like I do with the EC market.

 

 

Luv,

Phantom

[phantom 16]

 

 

Here's a screen shot from yesterday's trade in the euro currency.

 

The market broke below the support line and then consolidated right away before continuing downward swiftly.

 

For a 14 tic risk per contract, the reward was around 175 tics per contract with no pyramiding (12.5:1 R/R).

 

THAT'S what I'm talkin' about!

 

 

Luv,

Phantom

[optiontimer 10]

Here's a screen shot from yesterday's trade in the euro currency.

 

I mean no disrespect towards you, phantom, but this is what I was talking about in my thread: how about a screen shot of today's trade in the euro currency at the point of inception?

 

No need for you to do so, of course. I merely wish to point out an important difference between a thread where the psychological issues related to trading are central as they are being experienced in the present moment by its participants, as oppossed to a thread such as yours, which is more like reading a newspaper.

 

Good trading to you, phantom, and again, this is not meant as a challenge or a criticism. I am merely making plain the difference I see between what I am doing and what you are doing. And I remind yo that you raised the issue to me in my thread first. Otherwise, I'd have never have responded to you here.

 

And of course, you may disagree with me, and that is fine with me.

 

-OT

[phantom 16]

I mean no disrespect towards you, phantom, but this is what I was talking about in my thread: how about a screen shot of today's trade in the euro currency at the point of inception?

-OT

 

 

By popular request...

 

 

 

 

This is a trade where the euro made a clear double bottom and then reversed.

 

I exited at the 1.4260 test of the prior high due to the heavy resistance previously seen in last night's trade.

 

Not an extremely large R/R on this trade, but pretty safe bet, nonetheless.

 

BTW, my thread is not meant to be a real time trading exhibition like yours is; it is merely meant to show the possibilities one can achieve when one applies the concepts I teach.

 

We already know that trading is psychologically challenging; that is a given.

 

 

Luv,

Phantom

[IamJon 10]

Phantom,

 

Your trade examples that are / would have been winners are vary helpful. I also think the more examples you show, the better. All trading methods are subject to a certain number of trades that just don't go as planned. The reward/risk ratio is what allows a positive expectancy to prevail.

 

One thing that would also be helpful is if you could show us the anatomy / postmortem of a trade gone bad.

 

Thanks always,

 

J.

[BlowFish 10]

I may have missed this earlier in the thread (forgive me if so, didn't have time to re-read the whole thread). Your last post intimates how you approach this, but how do you determine targets Phantom? Personally determining the potential R:R before a trade is pretty key to me in deciding if it's a trade I want to take and if so what size to go in with. Obviously to determine that you need to anticipate where price might go before you consider pulling the trigger.

 

I'm guessing you might approach things slightly differently form things you have said in the past. Arguably exits are a much trickier proposition than entries.

[phantom 16]

Phantom,

 

Your trade examples that are / would have been winners are vary helpful. I also think the more examples you show, the better. All trading methods are subject to a certain number of trades that just don't go as planned. The reward/risk ratio is what allows a positive expectancy to prevail.

 

One thing that would also be helpful is if you could show us the anatomy / postmortem of a trade gone bad.

 

Thanks always,

 

J.

 

J,

 

I really don't have trades "gone bad" in the strictest sense. When I lose money on a trade its either because I get stopped out at my original risk point, ie the market just did not follow through (this happens, ya know) or I'm testing an idea with real money and it doesn't work out (this happened twice last month). Otherwise, I usually make money.

 

I think it would be much more helpful if you posted a trade you lost money in and I will tell you where I think you went wrong...

 

 

Luv,

Phantom

[phantom 16]

I may have missed this earlier in the thread (forgive me if so, didn't have time to re-read the whole thread). Your last post intimates how you approach this, but how do you determine targets?

 

See posts #170, #175. I also look at prior swing points, especially when I'm trading counter to the major trend.

 

 

Luv,

Phantom

[allwayswin 10]

Dear Phantom,

could you pl explain, "what is Rat Rail candle" which u have mentioned. Even after googling,i am unable to get it.

Thanks for yr patience.

[cees 10]

Thanks for this great thread concerning Priceaction.

 

Phantom ,do I understand correctly , that I could have entered short Eur on the break of the number 1 bar or is bar 2 a more accurate shooting star(reverse hammer).

 

How many bars do you consider the signalbar valid for entry.

See attached 15min EuroFX chart.

 

Once again many thanks

[optiontimer 10]

I promise to provide enough fodder to get you profitable if you aren't brain-dead, but I refuse to spoon feed you. Fair enough?

 

Do you feel you fulfilled your promise?

 

...Phantom ,do I understand correctly , that I could have entered short Eur on the break of the number 1 bar or is bar 2 a more accurate shooting star(reverse hammer)...

[phantom 16]

Dear Phantom,

could you pl explain, "what is Rat Rail candle" which u have mentioned. Even after googling,i am unable to get it.

Thanks for yr patience.

 

That's "rat TAIL" candle. Any candle that has body and a tail extending from either end (looks sorta like a firecracker).

 

 

Luv,

Phantom

[phantom 16]

Thanks for this great thread concerning Priceaction.

 

Phantom ,do I understand correctly , that I could have entered short Eur on the break of the number 1 bar or is bar 2 a more accurate shooting star(reverse hammer).

 

How many bars do you consider the signalbar valid for entry.

See attached 15min EuroFX chart.

 

Once again many thanks

 

I would have shorted a break of the bar 2 bars to the left of the #1 bar (ie the doji) or on a short of the #2 bar, had it occurred.

 

I would only take a signal if the next bar broke the signal bar.

 

 

Luv,

Phantom

[phantom 16]

Do you feel you fulfilled your promise?

 

You're still reading my work, aren't you?

 

 

Luv,

Phantom

[optiontimer 10]

You're still reading my work, aren't you?

 

 

Luv,

Phantom

 

Luv ur stuph!

 

-optiontimer

[allwayswin 10]

That's "rat TAIL" candle. Any candle that has body and a tail extending from either end (looks sorta like a firecracker).

 

 

Luv,

Phantom

 

Thank you phantom.

Regret inadvertent typing error

But why Rat,this phenomenon is common to many.

By the way,the default proverb on fish is interesting as it differs from conventional one & yr sense of humor appreciated.

 

Happy Trading.