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... this thread is NOT a forum to display all your favorite indicators, so please do that somewhere else. I'm trying to develop your sense of price action primarily, and I don't want to confuse readers of this thread with "the latest, greatest..."

 

Luv,

Phantom

 

Let me reiterate what I said way back in the beginning: this thread is all about price action, not indicators. If y'all want to discuss indicators, please take your discussion elsewhere.

 

Thanks,

Phantom

 

p.s. I'm testing (trading with real money) a simple but effective strategy for jumping into fast markets. Stay tuned for details!

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Folks,

 

I am thinking seriously about starting a free newsletter for traders that want to improve their results. The reason I want to go to a newsletter rather than just continue to post here is because I will not have to spend half of my time dealing with people that aren't serious about improving their results...

 

I will base my decision to launch the newsletter on your feedback. Please send me a PM if you are interested in being on the list; don't reply on this thread. This way, we can keep things confidential. You don't need to give me your email address yet, simply tell me you're interested. When the number of traders becomes large enough to make it worth my time, I'll tell you how to participate.

 

Once we go to the newsletter format, I may even produce a few free webinars to help.

 

 

Luv,

Phantom

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I forgot to say this before, but due to the nature of my email system, I have to limit my subscriber base to the first 500 respondents.

 

So if you're wanting to learn price action like never before, let me know soon, because I'll only allow the first 500 who PM me to receive the training .

 

Remember, it won't cost you anything to get on board...

 

 

Luv,

Phantom

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Who else wants an e-mini system (ES) that easily earns $200 a day on average? (per contract traded)

 

Join the subscriber list and I'll cover this in the very first issue...

 

I'm only giving this away to help...

 

Helping has always been my intent.

 

Now its up to you.

 

 

Luv,

Phantom

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Hello Phantom. I'm interested, but I don't know what PM means. Also, I can understand your frustration. I've been following your posts from the beginning.

 

PM means "private message" and is found in your control panel.

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Hi all...

 

The newsletter doesn't look feasible at this point. Since the idea of its inception was posted, there just hasn't been enough feedback to warrant the launch. This endeavor would be time consuming, to say the least, and the time/effort/energy is needed in other avenues of my life.

 

Still, just about everything you need to get profitable is in the thread. Sure, some of it is only a cursory look, but I'm pretty sure that anyone who rolls up the sleeves and goes to work to understand the principles I touched on here will be greatly rewarded.

 

Thank you to everyone who put their faith in me by personally responding. I'm sorry that I can't be of more help.

 

 

Have a good one,

Phantom

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Understandig price movement

 

Yesterday in the US session we had a strong resistance area on the 5min chart at about 1.2965 due to 61.80 % fib retracement of prior swing down, 61.80 % fib extension, 200 MA and prior consolidation + 20 MA resistance on the 1h chart.

 

On the 1 min chart we got further confirmation due to the ending diagonal pattern of wave C (upmove lost strength as it approached the resistance area + 61.80 % fib extension.)

 

In general the first step is to find strong resistance/support area and the second to observe price behaviour there for confirmation.

 

These kinds of chart analysis is what is working well in my opinion.

 

Best luck

 

Chart Analysis Forex (EUR/USD)

5min-eurusd.thumb.JPG.fce273e50226c219ba4f959cee830d44.JPG

1min-eurusd.JPG.5692a3f3ea35ecec455ee0b66c0c4639.JPG

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Understandig price movement

 

Yesterday in the US session we had a strong resistance area on the 5min chart at about 1.2965 and prior due to 61.80 % fib retracement of prior swing down, 61.80 % fib extension, 200 MAconsolidation + 20 MA resistance on the 1h chart.

 

In general the first step is to find strong resistance/support area and the second to observe price behaviour there for confirmation.

 

Although I cannot disagree with you that looking for confirmation at the S/R zone is a solid business practice, I must disagree with you about the reasons why the market turned around at the 1.2985ish area following the rally between 15:20 and 19:00. The culmination of that rally had very little, if anything to do with a fib ratio or an extended pattern of an Elliott wave, or even a 1 hr chart 20 sma... The market reversed at that price level because it hit strong resistance from the prior consolidation's lower boundary. Old support became new resistance and the market could not sustain the rally. Tests of prior support/resistance are what the markets are all about. Try not to get too caught up with fib numbers and Elliott waves too much. If you develop the instinct to anticipate price reversals based on price rejection at prior support/resistance versus some mathematical projection, you'll do better in the long run, imho.

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thanks for all the great info and examples, phantom!

 

I was looking back on today's 10 min TF chart a few minutes ago, and I saw what looked like a nice price rejection trade.

 

what do you think, phantom?

5aa710fdabb0b_TF06-12(10Min)5_21_2012.jpg.bbda97db75551b69ebd0f3e210d53888.jpg

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here is another example using phantom's methodology..

 

this is a consolidation breakout trade... (GC) COMEX GOLD 10 min chart..just made this sim trade for 29 ticks. sometimes gold has some nice moves after 7-8pm EST.

 

the red, full bodied bear candle was my signal.. because the price broke the small consolidation range, and then the preceeding bear hammer which CLOSED below the range was my trigger. I placed my target near a previous 'relative' low from the day session.

 

my risk was also completely taken out of this as well..I moved my stop to break even when I reached 15 ticks..however, this is subjective, and I have no set rules for moving my stop.

 

this could be a nice mini trend, so maybe tonite I will catch a retracement trade and then a continuation back down..

5aa710fdb1fe8_GC06-12(10Min)5_21_2012.thumb.jpg.5f291989d2d8085ded1d706e992fae7c.jpg

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just to be clear, when I set my target it wasnt really a relative low...it was near the SMA.. that price occurred around 2:30pm EST..but if the trend continues, which it is as of right now, new target would be at a relative low of the day session.

 

BTW..price is going back down, but I had walk dog, so I missed my entry..

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thanks for all the great info and examples, phantom!

 

I was looking back on today's 10 min TF chart a few minutes ago, and I saw what looked like a nice price rejection trade.

 

what do you think, phantom?

 

Ahhh, the old "false breakout-reversal! Notice how the channel breakout occurred around 10 am and then immediately reversed thru the entire channel and broke out the top of the channel...This is screaming BUY!!!

 

Nice catch, Shooly!

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..had I taken that sim trade (I was only watching ES at the time this occurred)..I wouldve likey let it run for 70 ticks up...$700 in a 1/2 hour on a single contract! this is what I would call a supreme trade! thanks again, phantom!

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ok..just saw the post about BBs..well I must disagree to a slight extent..these are not only to see the squeeze, or the pinch (consolidation)..but IMHO, there is no better indicator of supp/res...other than these bands...(+/-) standard deviation is the ultimate mathematical supp/res indicator..and furthermore.. the BBs also show the SMA.....20 period SMA... the 20/2 BB is near 'perfect' for intraday positions..

 

..just sayin..for anyone who is trying to figure out supp/res areas..all you hvta do is look at the appropriate time frame BBs for that..

 

..and sorry to get off subject...

 

..sorry phantom.. just thought I needed to clear this up a bit...I dont want to take away from the important content of this thread...but I do think that many do not undersstand that the BBs are crucial for finding important supp/res price areas...

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Shooly see your point on S/R on higher timeframes (htf) and use of BB ... one thing I find hard to tackle is the entry looking at htf say 10m chart you posted on TF... Do you use small tf to get the entry once you see the setup on htf? If so what tf you use for entry on TF?

TF is so volatile that a stop of over 1.5 to 2 is needed to take care of the noise in this instrument.

 

What tf do you use to look at S/R areas for TF?

 

Thank you.

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Hi Phanton,

 

I came across this site today and followed a link from another thread to this one. I have spent the last few hours reading all the comments and posts and working through your examples. Without going to much into my background I trade in a very similar way to this method you have described. The one huge difference I am still having difficulty with is discipline, mainly trading against the trend. I use a 25 period ma as my main trend indicator which is more or less the same as yours. Is there ever a spot where you will trade against this trend? Let me give you an example.

 

I am based in the uk and mainly trade the Dax but I don't suppose it matters which markets we are talking about. But, say for example the Dax has huge resistance at 6450. The market makes a big move up, spikes a couple of times above this area but each time leaves the distinctive hammer on the 15min candlesticks. It falls off but retests this area once more and once again fails, giving us a clear indication of a resistance level. During this time the 20 period MA is still rising giving us a dilemma. Price is telling us we could see a retracement but the average is saying we are in an uptrend. Would you ever trade this reversal?

 

The reason why this is relevant at the moment is that the Dax is in the trading range 6250-6450 and so many times this past week I have seen clear indications of support and resistance in the price but each time they have been opposite to what the averages say. Do you alter your strategy according to whether we have a trending market versus a range bound market?

 

Cheers for all your effort in your previous posts as well.

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Is there ever a spot where you will trade against this trend?

 

During this time the 20 period MA is still rising giving us a dilemma. Price is telling us we could see a retracement but the average is saying we are in an uptrend. Would you ever trade this reversal?

.

 

Hi Burra,

 

I really don't care whether the 20 sma is moving up or down; I'm concerned with which side of the ma the price is at. As soon as a 15, 20, etc bar closes under the ma, I'll be in sell mode. Vice versa for buy mode.

 

I do like to trade bounces off of major swing points, but I will wait for the market to cross the 20 sma. Its just extra confirmation, in my mind, and even though I am giving up a few bucks waiting for the crossing, to me it is worth the wait.

 

The trend filter is a hard and fast rule for me. I don't see the point of having trading rules if I am going to pick and choose when I will adhere to them...but that's just me.

 

Hope this helps!

 

 

Luv,

Phantom

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Thanks for your input,

 

I really struggle with that level of rigidity in my game plan, although I know it is the one thing that gets me into lots of trouble!! I know full well that trading after the market has made a retest is the most elegant and least stressful way of trading I have found. You miss most of the whipsaw and emotional hardship of the market shaking out all the weak hands at turning points but when I see the market struggle at one of these areas my little devil kicks in and tells me 'how can you let the market retrace for 15-20 mins and miss all that move, look, the price is turning now!'

 

I suppose it is only by more hard work and analysis that part of my brain will eventually accept this. My rational part already knows....

chart.png.7f62600605fb5180a9995c4422d29212.png

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Originally Posted by bobcollett »

"July crude oil futures closed at $88 today!!"

Thats a train smash

Please comment...

 

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=29189&stc=1&d=1338415317

 

 

Thiis is the daily chart for July Crude. Since the beginning of the year, crude has gone through several phases of price evolution. Since price movement is nothing more than a series of tests, the market is apparently phasing upward for the month of February and then step-channeling downward until the beginning of May where it dumped.

 

Try to think of each of these price channels (one per purple oval) as an opportunity to create "kinetic energy" which could, at times, catapult the market into massive movement. The two ovals forming throughout the months of March and April were storing that kinetic energy to, in this instance, force the CL market into the 80 dollar range.

 

Don't want to speculate on the politics behind the move. Better to focus on the chart and ignore the clutter.

 

It is what it is, so I hope you understand that in order to make money, you have to learn to go with the market no matter what its geopolitical backdrop...

 

 

Luv,

Phantom

5aa71101efe19_CLanalysis2012.jpg.133d95b6b997b3e3fd57e742293e1128.jpg

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Hi Phantom

Oil Futures above $94 on possible short supply in the US

Please give me your view for swing trade

Kind regards

bobc

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=30541&stc=1&d=1344864030

 

Hi Bob,

 

The daily crude chart shows a couple of things to take note of...

 

First, we can clearly see rising consolidation zones on the chart, as depicted by the purple ovals.

 

Secondly, notice the failed test of the 20 period moving average with a strong move away from and upward as depicted by the big green candlestick 6 periods ago.

 

IMHO, crude is in a solid uptrend and if I were trading for a multiday move, I would look to enter on a break above 95.00 which is slightly above the current consolidation boundary, and would expect a test of 96.10 as seen in the May consolidation, with a continuation back into the 100.00-102.60 region, which is the April lower consolidation boundary.

 

Good luck!

 

Luv,

Phantom

5aa7112b3c95d_CLU12Daily.jpg.eba88019510301f9f9b571cd7631ebf5.jpg

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