Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Recommended Posts

Thank you phantom.

 

But why rat-tail, this phenomenon is common to many?

 

Its just something I coined awhile back because that's what it looked like to me...

 

 

Luv,

Phantom

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So,

 

I've given y'all a tried and true way of approaching the markets, I've even had a few PM's and emails touting success for those with the fortitude to watch and try...

 

I've read all over the site that people are failing miserably at trading. I don't doubt that one bit. The 90% failure number remains intact even though the information has been made available on how to turn that around...

 

What exactly are you folks looking for when you spend your time on a website such as this one? It cannot possibly be trading success... except for the limited few...

 

If you have been following this thread and you are still a trading failure, ARE YOU EVEN PAPER TRADING THIS METHODOLOGY??? Or are you simply engaging in mental masturbation?

 

I really don't know what else to say...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

phantom, cees Just a comment on the chart posted by cees and reply from phantom... It seems to me I wont consider a S here since the MACD is not below the zero line .. may be that is the reason price action led to upward movement ?

 

another Q: phantom do you monitor a number of futures/commodity charts and keep looking to see which one is getting setup and then focus on it ?

 

Regards

 

 

Pat

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
phantom, cees Just a comment on the chart posted by cees and reply from phantom... It seems to me I wont consider a S here since the MACD is not below the zero line .. may be that is the reason price action led to upward movement ?

 

another Q: phantom do you monitor a number of futures/commodity charts and keep looking to see which one is getting setup and then focus on it ?

 

The MACD filter is always an important consideration, but more important is the price action itself.

 

In Cees example, the market broke slightly, only to retest the high. I would redraw the support line to include the lows established near the lower envelope of the Bollinger band, near the 1.4280 price level. A subsequent break of this level, followed by a failed test, would signal a sell in my book.

 

Yes, I do in fact monitor a chosen few markets and await consolidations in those markets so that I can trade the signaled breakouts when they occur.

 

 

Luv,

Phantom

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks phantom ... it seems consolidation is a necessary condition for your setups ..as shown in some of your examples ... the chart cees posted looks like a up move and pullback and then continuation upward...at that point. you are correct price action supersedes indicators ..

 

If I may ask in response to my Q re looking at some futs, currencies etc and monitor them .. I plan to do the following and would appreciate your input/comments.

 

1) Monitor 120, 60 m charts for trend like hitting the upper/lower BB band

2) once an extreme level in price reaches look for consolidation on 15, 20 m charts

3) Look for the setup after some consolidation ...use the macd filter to help in setup

4) Look for a rat tail etc now for entry and a stop ..

5) Stop is +1, 2 ticks higher than the entry bar

 

In this high Vol environment past week, your setups will force one to move to more calmer futs such as commodities ? emini futs such as TF ES etc were very wild ..[just impossible to trade]

 

Would appreciate if you cud post some charts of the entries you had taken past week..if possible

 

Thank you

 

 

Pat

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Thanks phantom ... it seems consolidation is a necessary condition for your setups ..as shown in some of your examples ... the chart cees posted looks like a up move and pullback and then continuation upward...at that point. you are correct price action supersedes indicators ..

 

If I may ask in response to my Q re looking at some futs, currencies etc and monitor them .. I plan to do the following and would appreciate your input/comments.

 

1) Monitor 120, 60 m charts for trend like hitting the upper/lower BB band

2) once an extreme level in price reaches look for consolidation on 15, 20 m charts

3) Look for the setup after some consolidation ...use the macd filter to help in setup

4) Look for a rat tail etc now for entry and a stop ..

5) Stop is +1, 2 ticks higher than the entry bar

 

In this high Vol environment past week, your setups will force one to move to more calmer futs such as commodities ? emini futs such as TF ES etc were very wild ..[just impossible to trade]

 

On point #2: I don't have to wait for the BB extreme... I want ANY range along a market's path. Why wait for the extreme if a solid setup is right before your eyes?

 

On point #5: stop is higher on a sell, lower on a buy

 

This past week has been crazy, as you said. I have been KILLING IT in the CL, but I'm using a different approach than the one I outlined for you folks on this thread.

 

I'm trading Linda Raschke's "ANTI" setups from the Street Smarts book. I've been trading this setup for many years and it's the BOMB. If you don't have the book...oh well...better get it b4 it becomes unavailable...

 

 

Luv,

Phantom

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Phantom - I've been combing through a few different markets studying the Price Rejection Setup, and I am starting to see it more clearly. In trying to determine valid setups, what would you say is the rough win rate vs. loss rate on this setup (when analyzed correctly)?

 

From my brief study over the last few weeks, I am seeing about a 40% win rate.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Phantom - I've been combing through a few different markets studying the Price Rejection Setup, and I am starting to see it more clearly. In trying to determine valid setups, what would you say is the rough win rate vs. loss rate on this setup (when analyzed correctly)?

 

From my brief study over the last few weeks, I am seeing about a 40% win rate.

 

Which markets are you looking at?

 

And how would you manage the trades once you would be in?

Edited by phantom

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thank you for the comments. I got the book from library this PM and got to the setup you pointed out 'ANTY' and I am going thru it now ..to understand the setup ...looks simple enuf but the examples shown are for Daily charts.

 

Do you first see this setup on Daily chart then move to say 20m 15m charts OR some other timeframe for the entry? I would appreciate if you could post a few charts on CL that you had taken on the past week - with so much turmoil in the market.

 

I will begin to look at this setup with CL charts of the past week and see where I go with it. This could also be a setup that you could show some examples of it - if you choose to do so. Just a few examples of charts would be adequate for the way you take the setups.

 

I must say that for me looking at some charts and the setups from those who are v good at trading gives me the confidence that the setups work and focus myself on be able to see them during the live sessions is a big help. Real time price action and be able to see the setup in real time is forming and recognize it - and have the confidence to take it. Still working on it.

 

Your charts have been of immense help to me.

 

Regards

 

 

Pat

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Thank you for the comments. I got the book from library this PM and got to the setup you pointed out 'ANTY' and I am going thru it now ..to understand the setup ...looks simple enuf but the examples shown are for Daily charts.

 

Do you first see this setup on Daily chart then move to say 20m 15m charts OR some other timeframe for the entry? I would appreciate if you could post a few charts on CL that you had taken on the past week - with so much turmoil in the market.

 

I will begin to look at this setup with CL charts of the past week and see where I go with it. This could also be a setup that you could show some examples of it - if you choose to do so. Just a few examples of charts would be adequate for the way you take the setups.

 

I must say that for me looking at some charts and the setups from those who are v good at trading gives me the confidence that the setups work and focus myself on be able to see them during the live sessions is a big help. Real time price action and be able to see the setup in real time is forming and recognize it - and have the confidence to take it. Still working on it.

 

Your charts have been of immense help to me.

 

I know for a fact that Raschke trades this setup on 5 min ES charts (I used to be a member in her trading room).

 

Truly, this is such a robust method that you can trade it on 1 minute insect charts (lol).

 

Anyway, I look at 20 tic range charts in CL, 20 tic range charts in ZN, 20 tic range charts in GC, 15 tic range charts in NG; the list could go on and on...

 

I use my 5/13/13 macd instead of her 4/7/10 macd cuz I'm married to it...

 

But I think that you need to tinker with it a bit so that you're comfortable with the entries...

 

Look Pat, I really wasn't going to give this away to my readers. It's sooooo powerful in the hands of an experienced trader...

 

I'll post a chart or two later, maybe, but I would really like you to roll up your sleeves and do some research on your own first (remember my previous comment on spoon feeding?)

 

Raschke's book has another setup called "Holy Grail," but in my mind, this setup blows that one away, any day of the week.

 

Get a little dirty, do some serious research. and soon you'll be making PHAT money too.

 

Can I be any plainer than this?

 

 

I'm SUCH a pushover...

 

 

Luv,

Phantom

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Phantom,

 

I don't think I could ever thank you enough. The thing is Raschke uses a Stoch for the anti (at least in the book). How are you using the macd instead of stoch hooks?

 

Thanks,

 

J.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I was looking primarily at the 6E, ZC, NG, and the CL, 15 minute candles.

 

The exit strategy was simply hit the target or stop out.

 

- Stop loss is hit one tick above/below rat tail entry bar

- Targets are determined 1 of 2 ways;

a. Near term low/high that is 2-3 times the risk

b. If the break occurs as part of a larger pattern (such as a 60 or 120min head and

shoulders) the target of the larger pattern would take precedent.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Phantom,

 

I don't think I could ever thank you enough. The thing is Raschke uses a Stoch for the anti (at least in the book). How are you using the macd instead of stoch hooks?

 

A little rum goes a long way...

 

You are right. She does use a stoch.

 

I use the fast line versus the slow line on the macd in the same manner that she uses the %k versus the %d.

 

I like my way better...

 

But that doesn't mean you have to...

 

Do the research and see what works best for you...

 

Think I'll go raid the liquor cabinet again...

 

 

Bottoms up!

Phantom

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree phantom that ANTY is much easier to follow than the other strategy .. will have to see how it works in real trading and the setups .. Will setup the charts based on this and the timeframes you have mentioned on CL. Still paper trade on CL but I keep looking at the charts with your earlier methodology.

 

Also agree that %K %D cud be substituted with macd .. Easier to refer to one indicator than switch around etc but to each his own...

 

Just wanted to ask why you find this ANTY setups better in high volatile mkts like the one we had last week? compared to your previous method you had described in detail.

 

Regards

 

 

Pat

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
A little rum goes a long way...

 

You are right. She does use a stoch.

 

I use the fast line versus the slow line on the macd in the same manner that she uses the %k versus the %d.

 

I like my way better...

 

But that doesn't mean you have to...

 

Do the research and see what works best for you...

 

Think I'll go raid the liquor cabinet again...

 

 

Bottoms up!

Phantom

 

P,

 

I'll do my homework and figure out what works best for me.

I am glad this thread is still alive. Enough kibble makes for a hearty meal.

 

Enjoy the weekend.

 

Thanks always,

 

J.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I was looking primarily at the 6E, ZC, NG, and the CL, 15 minute candles.

 

The exit strategy was simply hit the target or stop out.

 

- Stop loss is hit one tick above/below rat tail entry bar

- Targets are determined 1 of 2 ways;

a. Near term low/high that is 2-3 times the risk

b. If the break occurs as part of a larger pattern (such as a 60 or 120min head and

shoulders) the target of the larger pattern would take precedent.

 

On point a: I really don't trade the smaller range breakouts, so I couldn't tell you a winning %

 

On point b: since I only look for range breakouts in conjunction with longer term charts, and I really focus on tightly knit channels like 4-6 bar sideways channels off the 120 chart, my winning % is more like 67% in the euro and corn markets. NG is closer to 40%. CL is pretty new to me; I'm trading the ANTI more than the range breakouts in this market due to its proclivity for quick reversals.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just wanted to ask why you find this ANTY setups better in high volatile mkts like the one we had last week? compared to your previous method you had described in detail.

 

Highly volatile markets are prone to quick reversals and the ANTI setups are more of a "hit and run" trading method than the other stuff.

 

Its a real bitch to wait forever for a market like CL to produce a solid setup only to follow through minimally, while I could have been surgically removing SHLOADS of money in the meantime...

 

Its not uncommon to have several trades each day in the current CL environment.

 

 

Luv,

Phantom

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

here is a chart based on ANTY setup and as per phantom timeframe and macd setting. I have marked the S and L locations ...based on the strategy defined in Street smarts. P if you get a chance to look at it ..any comments will be appreciated.

 

Hope the chart shows up. Attaching ti for the first time.

 

#2 S failed it seems ... #1 and #3 worked well.

 

#1 L failed too. #2 and #3 worked well.

 

 

pat

LA626245-05.png.90447c1bd9d9ae678182ac00fd2689a9.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
here is a chart based on ANTY setup and as per phantom timeframe and macd setting. I have marked the S and L locations ...based on the strategy defined in Street smarts. P if you get a chance to look at it ..any comments will be appreciated.

 

Hope the chart shows up. Attaching ti for the first time.

 

#2 S failed it seems ... #1 and #3 worked well.

 

#1 L failed too. #2 and #3 worked well.

 

 

pat

 

What settings are you using for the macd? It doesn't look anything like mine...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks phantom for the explanation ...geez I was thinking the opposite of what you said :( However, it is clear now that ANTY is a hit & run setup but need to be very careful ... Watching the ES & TF last week ...no way one cud use a stop even 3, 4 or 5 pts on these futs ..mkt was so volatile that these stops or even greater than these #s wud have been hit. I did not trade as I was clearly not up to the task of been able to use any kind of stops.

 

But a friend who trades well said these are the times to make hay while the sun shines .. and they dont come by often. Well will work on my understandings of this ANTY setup in real time and do some paper trades. If others who are following this setup .cud post some comments / charts will be a good start to look at this setup along with phantom previous setup that he described in detail.

 

Regards

 

 

pat

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

phantom I am using the macd setting of 5, 13, 13 that is

Ave 1 5 exp

Ave 2 13 simple

Ave 13 simple

 

sorry should have used Ave 1 as 5 simple?

 

Thank you for the help.

 

 

Regards

 

 

Pat

LA626245-07.png.aa246d8bb4202e4d2824e62382a81a1f.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Iam You may be right ..'exp' settings gives the setup earlier than the 'simple' settings ..but one can also look at the rat tails that phantom mentioned ..in this setup too...However, experience and confidence counts a lot in trading and obviously phantom has been at it for a long time.

 

Real time price action and being able to see the setup quick and take it .. comes with time and study the charts of exprienced traders ...

 

I hope phantom will keep this thread going so we cud share charts and his setups of the previous day.

 

Regards

 

 

pat

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
phantom I am using the macd setting of 5, 13, 13 that is

Ave 1 5 exp

Ave 2 13 simple

Ave 13 simple

 

sorry should have used Ave 1 as 5 simple?

 

Thank you for the help.

 

 

I use sma's.

 

Also, I only take sell signals if both fast and slow lines are below the zero line; I only take buy signals if both lines are above the zero line.

 

Less signals, better reliability.

 

 

Luv,

Phantom

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Similar Content

    • By David Carter
      My broker (Jones Mutual) advised me to use candlesticks when CFD trading, as the simple line graph option does not give you enough information - is this correct?
    • By inthemoneystocks
      One of the most important reasons why traders take big losses is because they often fail to recognize when a trade has gone wrong. You see, stopping out of a trade is probably the biggest fault of traders and investors. Often, this happens to young and inexperienced traders and investors, but I know many veteran traders and investors that struggle with this as well. Early in my own career I struggled with stopping out of a bad trade myself, so I can sympathize with this problem. 

      The problem with taking a loss is really two fold. First, the trader has to admit that he is wrong. As you all know, as human beings we all hate to be wrong. The ego simply gets in the way and we all want to always be right all the time. The first secret in this business is to check the ego at the door. The market does not care about your the color of your skin, religion or anything else. It will move in the direction of the money and that is the bottom line. Once a trader or investor goes into what I call 'hope mode' the trade is over. I'm sure everyone has been in this position at one time or another. Simply put there is no room for ego or hope in the stock market. The market is always right and there is no reason to fight it. 

      Here is the second problem with taking a loss, it hurts. Pain and pleasure are the two reasons why humans do anything at all. As a human being, we are always looking to have pleasure and avoid pain. Well, losing money is painful and many people would rather simply hold a losing equity than lock in a small loss and move on. I cannot tell you how often I see a trader hold a losing trade only to see the position move further out of the money. Many years ago I watched a day trader blow up a $200,000 account in a single day averaging in on a bad day trade. To this day I can remember the look on his face as his money vanished in thin air. Believe it or not, this trader could have exited the position with a $500.00 loss, but instead he kept averaging in and fighting the position until he was wiped out. As a rule, once you have your full position you should never average in on a trade. At that point, it is critical to know where your max loss is going to be and stop out if that level is breached.

      Now when should we stop out? The answer to this question is not that simple, but here is what I personally do. I always place my stop loss below an important breakout or pivot on the chart. You see, prior breakout or pivot levels are usually defended when retested. After all, this is usually an area where institutional traders and investors got involved, that is why there is a pivot low or high on the chart to begin with. If that level is breached on a closing basis then I will move out of the position. So If I took a trade based on a daily chart pattern then I will usually check the daily and weekly chart levels. If there is a major pivot on the weekly chart then I will use a week chart close as my stop out level. While this method may not be perfect, it has saved me from much bigger losses when I have been wrong.



        Nicholas Santiago
    • By LindsayBev
      Hello!  I am new to this forum.  I am interested in learning about candlestick reading.  I would appreciate hearing from any that will answer this post WHICH book you found the most helpful?  
    • By trading4life
      Hello, My name is trading4life.
      I just joined this forum.
  • Topics

  • Posts

    • ADMA Adma Biologics stock, watch for a range breakout, target 26 area at https://stockconsultant.com/?ADMA
    • URI United Rentals stock, nice rally off 829 support area, watch for top of range breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?URI
    • Date: 27th November 2024. S&P500 at its 52nd new peak for 2024; USD Firmer, Kiwi & Yen Up. Asia & European Sessions: Wall Street rallied into the close with the S&P500 and Dow registering more record highs with the S&P500 climbing 0.57% to 6045, its 52nd new peak for 2024. The Dow rose 0.28% to 44,860.3 for its 46th record of the year. The NASDAQ advanced 0.63%. Trump named Jamieson Greer as the US Trade Representative and Kevin Hassett to direct the National Economic Council. Greer was intimately involved in Trump’s first-term trade policy decisions. President Biden announced Israel and Hezbollah have reached a cease fire. Over the next 60 days the Lebanese army and state security will take control of their own territory and Israel will gradually withdraw its forces. FOMC minutes: Minutes from the Fed’s latest policy meeting revealed officials leaning toward a cautious approach to future rate cuts. All agreed to cut the rate by -25 bps and nearly all thought risks between achieving employment and inflation goals were “roughly in balance.” Upside risks to the inflation outlook were little changed, and while inflation had eased, it remained elevated. The implied December rate continues to hover around a 50-50 bet as we await the PCE price data Wednesday and the crucial jobs report on December 6. The January 2025 rate is priced for a total of 20 bps in cuts, with -75 bps by January 2026. RBNZ cut its cash rate by 50 bps, yet the Kiwi gained as traders analyzed the central bank’s rate outlook and the governor’s remarks. Chinese government approved a 500 billion yuan ($69 billion) bond quota, enabling two state-owned asset managers to issue bonds for funding projects aimed at spurring economic growth. Today: US inflation and economic growth may provide clues to the Federal Reserve’s next policy move. Financial Markets Performance: The USDIndex has dropped to currently 106.459. The Yen climbed with USDJPY pulling back to 151.82, while NZDUSD jumped to 0.5900 despite the RBNZ’s 50 bps rate cut. Oil prices stabilized at $68.84, with optimism over delayed OPEC+ output increases balancing the reduced geopolitical risk stemming from the ceasefire. Gold rebounds to 2653.54, with next Resistance at 2660-2664. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • RBLX Roblox stock, pull back to 49.2 gap support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?RBLX
    • UHS Universal Health Services stock, nice rally off the 197 support area, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?UHS
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.