Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Recommended Posts

Didn't Mark Twain have a real knack for hitting the nail square on the head? I believe Mr Twain also said something to the effect of "There's lies, damn lies and statistics." That's why I never had much faith in backtesting "systems." I test my research with real money, not computer simulations.

 

 

Although backtesting is just a single step and only valuable when confirmed by forward testing... it is a crucial step in the whole proces. Calling a backtest a lie confirms indeed Phantom is not a daytrader with 12 years of experience...

 

I do not apologize for my skeptical posts in this thread but based on the replies I realize the harder I try to prove Phantom is a fake the more forum members luv him...

If people choose to believe him and eventually buy his/her stuff (or worse...give him/her your trading money to do the trading for you) then I have to respect that and keep my ethical mouth shut...

 

The bait is always too attractive for people blinded by $ signs. That's how it works and always will work....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Random thoughts on testing.

 

My uncle was an engineer he taught me the scientific method when I was... I dunno about 8 years old I guess. In my view (fwiw) though pretty simple it is very useful in many aspects of life for acquiring and integrating knowledge.

 

Computerised back testing is just a tool. Nine times out of ten people draw un-reliable conclusions from it. There's a whole bunch of reasons for this that go beyond the scope of this thread. For most things I far prefer testing 'by hand/eyeball'. Performance analysis has its place too (to call that statistics is a bit grand for what is essentially keeping a tally). Market generated statistics have there place too but this thread is not one of them :)

 

This is one of those areas where expertise in other walks of life can be detrimental to your outcomes if you expect trading to 'work in the same way'.

 

 

My friend, its not that I never backtested anything in the past. My brother is a high level government programmer and believe me when I say that we've run backtests on an array of system ideas, but when I traded these ideas I could never get the real trades to produce like the simulated results. Maybe coding errors, maybe poor execution, maybe whatever...

 

There is a reason the CFTC proclaims "past performance is no guarantee of future results," because they know that system vendors abound with all kinds of optimized this and that, but when traded in real time with real money, these systems just don't work. My personal experience attests to that fact.

 

So I've become more like yourself; I observe market dynamics, then do visual/eyeball-type analysis, and then place bets iaw my observations.

 

Works for me.

 

 

Luv,

Phantom

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Warning: this setup was not backtested on 300 years of data before I made money with it, so it may not be for you!

 

Let's consider the following chart of Friday's euro currency price action:

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=24699&stc=1&d=1306066211

 

This is a 10 minute chart of the June Euro. Friday morning opened to a huge overnight move in the euro. This kind of overnight action is even better than the release of the employment numbers IMO because not only is there going to be a long-covering frenzy when the banks open at 8 am MDT, we don't have to guess which direction we are looking to trade this morning!

 

The 20 period moving average is my best friend in the financial world. I use it to determine the current trend on my 10-15-20 minute charts (yes, I look at all three time frames continuously during the day, because sometimes I'll see price rejection on one when the other two are not clearly showing it (one of the "subtleties" of price action).

 

The 0730 bar, indicated by the black arrow, is the first full bar underneath the 20 sma following the market's consolidation/price test of some previous price level. As we already discussed earlier, the doji bar at 07:30 is a secondary consolidation following the breakout of the primary a-b-c consolidation that occurred from just prior to 6 am until its culmination at around 07:20.

 

Price action indicates that the market broke the ascending pennant (a-b-c consolidation), consolidated again (doji), broke down below the doji low, retested some point within the doji, and then plummeted. I think this was about a 90 point move.

 

I sell one tic below the low of the doji with a protective stop one tic above the doji.

I risked 13 tics on this trade to make 80-something tics. Not a bad reward for the risk I assumed.

 

The afternoon trade is one that I did not trade (I was busy with this thread-see how easy it is to be distracted from a trading routine, especially when you've been doing it a long time; it becomes harder and harder to stay focused). The psychology behind the setup is the same. This breakout moved over 50 points.

 

Anytime a big report is released that rocks the market or a big overnight breakout of a multiday trading range occurs that skyrockets volatility, I'm on alert status for this setup.

 

Folks, I wrote this thread to help you understand price action. Once you truly understand price action, you won't have to rely on a computer simulation to tell you your trades are okay to take with real money. This advice is coming from a real trader, not some institutional bean-counter. ;)

 

Hope this helps.

 

 

Luv,

Phantom

5aa7107b2f793_euro50ptdf20star.jpg.e3da284b65ddfad3b2584e0b52c1aab8.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

What I like to see on a 15 or 30 minute chart is a hammer or doji candlestick following a consolidation or range breakout.

 

What is the psychology behind the hammer? Price moved from the breakout zone to some new level. Then price then retraced towards the consolidation zone and was rejected (hammered) back into the direction of the new trend. The breakout of that hammer bar IS THE ABSOLUTE SAFEST BET YOU CAN MAKE!!! Why? Because if the market just got hammered away from a price level, what do you think the odds are that price will immediately return to that level? Not very good odds at all.

 

Phantom

 

In keeping with Phantom opening post.....the pictures below are the hammers and dojies from last week's (5/16 to 20) YM and ES trading. I use 512 bars for YM and 1600 for ES.

 

The green horizontal bars are Long Entries, Red - Short Entries, Magenta - 1st Target exit at 10 ticks in the YM. Pstops (protective stops) are 15 tick below or above the Entry Prices. Just look to see if the market traded back above or below the hammer or doji at the entry.

 

I've only posted the 1st Target of 10 ticks and I'm using only 1 contract per trade to keep the example simple.

 

5/16: 6 trades for 60

5/17: 4 trades for 40

5/18: 3 trades for 10 no line for entries and exits

5/19: 3 trades for 30 no line for entries and exits

5/20: 4 trades for 20 no line for entries and exits

1st target total for week: 160 ticks

5aa7107b3c89d_YMM105162011.thumb.jpeg.efcbfa5d26617e72447ee4e401187864.jpeg

5aa7107b44db2_YMM105172011.thumb.jpeg.e0811251dd164e44cc4d2c4c81ae5780.jpeg

5aa7107b4cf43_YMM105182011.thumb.jpeg.4013e41742e873aaca83e8532423f31f.jpeg

5aa7107b56002_YMM105192011.thumb.jpeg.83c0f33a53a34ba71de2009e631699c7.jpeg

5aa7107b5f050_YMM105202011.thumb.jpeg.17aa9e18c7268bbfbd940e48ac83806d.jpeg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Although backtesting is just a single step and only valuable when confirmed by forward testing... it is a crucial step in the whole proces. Calling a backtest a lie confirms indeed Phantom is not a daytrader with 12 years of experience...

 

 

Depends what you mean by 'back testing' if you mean computerised back testing I have to respectfully disagree. Anyway none of that is germane to this thread. It is up to each individual trader to thoroughly test their trading premise, without doing so it is unlikely they will have the confidence to trade it.

 

 

I do not apologize for my skeptical posts in this thread but based on the replies I realize the harder I try to prove Phantom is a fake the more forum members luv him...

If people choose to believe him and eventually buy his/her stuff (or worse...give him/her your trading money to do the trading for you) then I have to respect that and keep my ethical mouth shut...

 

The bait is always too attractive for people blinded by $ signs. That's how it works and always will work....

 

All of that says more about you than Phantom or his method. Why do you want to prove him a fake so badly, who gives a flying fig? If you think his method is no good by all means indicate why. If and when he asks for money he will be asked to be a sponsor or shut down. Simple as that. What you are doing is engaging in a witch hunt, to repeat myself it says more about you than phantom or his method. If you want to engage in that sort of activity Ellite Trader is a better venue. Incidentally your posts not only 'prove' nothing they don't make the slightest attempt to try to. Post some back test results (as you threatened to earlier) or at east post some charts indicating why this is unsound.

 

I also think it rather sad (not to mention insulting) that you have to deride people that won't join your witch hunt.

 

In short post some tangible proof or it would be best for all concerned if you "keep your ethical mouth shut". No disrespect meant to you but this seems to have got under your skin. Hell, just drop the matter and start a thread "how to back test properly". You could even use this approach as an example!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Will your indicators work on Tradestation?

 

I can only assume by indicators that you mean 20 period sma (part of the Bollinger band) and MACD?

 

Although I've never used Tradestation, I'm sure the answer is yes, because these are basic to every charting package out there.

 

 

Luv,

Phantom

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

attachment.php?attachmentid=24877&stc=1&d=1307757559

 

Here's a breakout in July Corn this week. The red arrow points to the test > hammer (price rejection away from the side ways channel) > breakout that led to a massive 60 cent move over the next couple of days. (That's $3,000 profit per contract traded)

 

Here's my question: Why are you still trading the e-mini sp 500???

 

Remember, most of the stuff you read on this website will take you right to the poorhouse.

 

 

Luv,

Phantom

5aa7107fdb04a_ZCcbo-hammer.jpg.7200a47028841b8a92f491fbc28be11d.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Phantom,

 

Thanks for sharing... Enjoyed the thread (other than the add nothing whiners). My question is why do you not like the ES (S&P emini) ? I enjoy the liquidity and breadth, but also believe it is a heavily manipulated market..

 

Can you plz expand?

 

Cheers

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Phantom,

 

Thanks for sharing... Enjoyed the thread (other than the add nothing whiners). My question is why do you not like the ES (S&P emini) ? I enjoy the liquidity and breadth, but also believe it is a heavily manipulated market..

 

Can you plz expand?

 

Cheers

 

IMHO, trading is all about reward to risk.

 

I generally risk around $150 per contract on my breakouts, and the reward varies, but it is not uncommon to achieve 6,7,8 times the $150 risked as a reward for my patience and risk taken. I found it extremely difficult to get anywhere near the RTR ratios when trading the ES and NQ contracts.

 

There is plenty of liquidity in the currency and grain contracts, and I'm not too concerned with the depth of market. Usually, when its time for the market to break out from one of my setups, the market does not linger at my entry price zone long enough for the scalpers to come hunting my stops. That was never the case in the equities markets.

 

Hope this helps.

 

 

Luv,

Phantom

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Remember, most of the stuff you read on this website will take you right to the poorhouse.

 

what are you talking about? are you being facetious or are you serious? does that include stuff you post? :rofl:

 

-mslk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
IMHO, trading is all about reward to risk.

 

I generally risk around $150 per contract on my breakouts, and the reward varies, but it is not uncommon to achieve 6,7,8 times the $150 risked as a reward for my patience and risk taken. I found it extremely difficult to get anywhere near the RTR ratios when trading the ES and NQ contracts.

 

There is plenty of liquidity in the currency and grain contracts, and I'm not too concerned with the depth of market.

 

hey phantom, out of curiosity what platform are you using to trade currencies and commodities? i would like to start trading in the methods you are describing but the first major hurdle is always picking the right place to deposit my money. i only want to do it one time as it is such a pain-in-the-ass to change later.

 

thanks - mslk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
hey phantom, out of curiosity what platform are you using to trade currencies and commodities? i would like to start trading in the methods you are describing but the first major hurdle is always picking the right place to deposit my money. i only want to do it one time as it is such a pain-in-the-ass to change later.

 

thanks - mslk

 

I use the ninja trader platform with a Chicago-based brokerage.

 

 

Luv,

Phantom

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Although backtesting is just a single step and only valuable when confirmed by forward testing... it is a crucial step in the whole proces. Calling a backtest a lie confirms indeed Phantom is not a daytrader with 12 years of experience...

 

no it doesn't - everyone has their own approach - you cannot automatically assume he isn't a daytrader with 12 years experience simple because he doesn't agree with you on backtesting! anyhow - continue on phantom we are all enjoying your thread so far and want more

-mslk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Here's a breakout in July Corn this week. The red arrow points to the test > hammer (price rejection away from the side ways channel) > breakout that led to a massive 60 cent move over the next couple of days. (That's $3,000 profit per contract traded)

Luv,

Phantom

 

The Phantom is back!

 

Was it the real phantom or an imposter.?

Would the real phantom give up so easily?

 

phantom, Have you considered approaching this as if you have an audience of only one trader (not 100k)? ... and s/he hasn't posted/said a peep yet?

 

Agree with zdo - forget the negative comments and keep posting your work. Moderators - can you keep an eye on this thread and let Phantom post in peace?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Au contraire you are not welcome here if you want to scam.

 

Let's not jump to negative conclusions so quickly. Let the man educate in peace, he is doing a great job so far. We are all adults and we can decide for ourselves if he is a scam. Please go and start your own thread if you don't like what Phantom is teaching.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I was going to comment on your first post. It seems that your approach is pretty radically different from phantoms. (of course I may be wrong) It would certainly seem to merit it's own thread if that is the case? I wonder if any 'criticism' is not really criticism, it's just you do stuff differently?

 

I agree with Blowfish, Flex you should start your own thread and post your methods. It would be easier for everyone to follow different threads vs. trying to pick out your methods from Phantoms.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi Blowfish,

If the trade rules are clear I can code a "Phantom strategy" and provide some test results for those who are interested...

 

Well let him finish the lessons and then please do that - I'm sure everyone reading this thread will appreciate it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Phantom,

 

Thanks for sharing... Enjoyed the thread (other than the add nothing whiners). My question is why do you not like the ES (S&P emini) ? I enjoy the liquidity and breadth, but also believe it is a heavily manipulated market..

 

Can you plz expand?

 

Cheers

 

There is a thread somewhere titled something like "why trade the emini ES" or something similar. Several opinions including Phantoms are expressed there. Liquidity is about the only thing it has got going for it but I can't see that will be a big factor except for the largest traders? It lacks volatility, granularity and a whole bunch of other minuses (mentioned in the aforementioned thread). You can almost certainly get more bang for your buck elsewhere.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
There is a thread somewhere titled something like "why trade the emini ES" or something similar. You can almost certainly get more bang for your buck elsewhere.

 

 

So true...

 

Why risk $150 to make $150 when you can risk $150 to make $600? $800? $3000???

 

Reward to risk, baby!

 

 

Luv,

Phantom

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Phantom ...

 

i have read your posts and chart examples with interest. I agree that one must try other mkts than ES NQ etc. How do you pick other futures such as grains etc a) Do you regularly check all grains to see which one is setting up? same with the currency b) Do you have some grains/currency that you find better than others in the category?

 

Thank you ..great thread and hope you will keep posting your setups ..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Similar Content

    • By David Carter
      My broker (Jones Mutual) advised me to use candlesticks when CFD trading, as the simple line graph option does not give you enough information - is this correct?
    • By inthemoneystocks
      One of the most important reasons why traders take big losses is because they often fail to recognize when a trade has gone wrong. You see, stopping out of a trade is probably the biggest fault of traders and investors. Often, this happens to young and inexperienced traders and investors, but I know many veteran traders and investors that struggle with this as well. Early in my own career I struggled with stopping out of a bad trade myself, so I can sympathize with this problem. 

      The problem with taking a loss is really two fold. First, the trader has to admit that he is wrong. As you all know, as human beings we all hate to be wrong. The ego simply gets in the way and we all want to always be right all the time. The first secret in this business is to check the ego at the door. The market does not care about your the color of your skin, religion or anything else. It will move in the direction of the money and that is the bottom line. Once a trader or investor goes into what I call 'hope mode' the trade is over. I'm sure everyone has been in this position at one time or another. Simply put there is no room for ego or hope in the stock market. The market is always right and there is no reason to fight it. 

      Here is the second problem with taking a loss, it hurts. Pain and pleasure are the two reasons why humans do anything at all. As a human being, we are always looking to have pleasure and avoid pain. Well, losing money is painful and many people would rather simply hold a losing equity than lock in a small loss and move on. I cannot tell you how often I see a trader hold a losing trade only to see the position move further out of the money. Many years ago I watched a day trader blow up a $200,000 account in a single day averaging in on a bad day trade. To this day I can remember the look on his face as his money vanished in thin air. Believe it or not, this trader could have exited the position with a $500.00 loss, but instead he kept averaging in and fighting the position until he was wiped out. As a rule, once you have your full position you should never average in on a trade. At that point, it is critical to know where your max loss is going to be and stop out if that level is breached.

      Now when should we stop out? The answer to this question is not that simple, but here is what I personally do. I always place my stop loss below an important breakout or pivot on the chart. You see, prior breakout or pivot levels are usually defended when retested. After all, this is usually an area where institutional traders and investors got involved, that is why there is a pivot low or high on the chart to begin with. If that level is breached on a closing basis then I will move out of the position. So If I took a trade based on a daily chart pattern then I will usually check the daily and weekly chart levels. If there is a major pivot on the weekly chart then I will use a week chart close as my stop out level. While this method may not be perfect, it has saved me from much bigger losses when I have been wrong.



        Nicholas Santiago
    • By LindsayBev
      Hello!  I am new to this forum.  I am interested in learning about candlestick reading.  I would appreciate hearing from any that will answer this post WHICH book you found the most helpful?  
    • By trading4life
      Hello, My name is trading4life.
      I just joined this forum.
  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date: 22nd November 2024.   BTC flirts with $100K, Stocks higher, Eurozone PMI signals recession risk.   Asia & European Sessions:   Geopolitical risks are back in the spotlight on fears of escalation in the Ukraine-Russia after Russia reportedly used a new ICBM to retaliate against Ukraine’s use of US and UK made missiles to attack inside Russia. The markets continue to assess the election results as President-elect Trump fills in his cabinet choices, with the key Treasury Secretary spot still open. The Fed’s rate path continues to be debated with a -25 bp December cut seen as 50-50. Earnings season is coming to an end after mixed reports, though AI remains a major driver. Profit taking and rebalancing into year-end are adding to gyrations too. Wall Street rallied, led by the Dow’s 1.06% broadbased pop. The S&P500 advanced 0.53% and the NASDAQ inched up 0.03%. Asian stocks rose after  Nvidia’s rally. Nikkei added 1% to 38,415.32 after the Tokyo inflation data slowed to 2.3% in October from 2.5% in the prior month, reaching its lowest level since January. The rally was also supported by chip-related stocks tracked Nvidia. Overnight-indexed swaps indicate that it’s certain the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will cut its policy rate by 50 basis points on Nov. 27, with a 22% chance of a 75 basis points reduction. European stocks futures climbed even though German Q3 GDP growth revised down to 0.1% q/q from the 0.2% q/q reported initially. Cryptocurrency market has gained approximately $1 trillion since Trump’s victory in the Nov. 5 election. Recent announcement for the SEC boosted cryptos. Chair Gary Gensler will step down on January 20, the day Trump is set to be inaugurated. Gensler has pushed for more protections for crypto investors. MicroStrategy Inc.’s plans to accelerate purchases of the token, and the debut of options on US Bitcoin ETFs also support this rally. Trump’s transition team has begun discussions on the possibility of creating a new White House position focused on digital asset policy.     Financial Markets Performance: The US Dollar recovered overnight and closed at 107.00. Bitcoin currently at 99,300,  flirting with a run toward the 100,000 level. The EURUSD drifts below 1.05, the GBPUSD dips to June’s bottom at 1.2570, while USDJPY rebounded to 154.94. The AUDNZD spiked to 2-year highs amid speculation the RBNZ will cut the official cash rate by more than 50 bps next week. Oil surged 2.12% to $70.46. Gold spiked to 2,697 after escalation alerts between Russia and Ukraine. Heightened geopolitical tensions drove investors toward safe-haven assets. Gold has surged by 30% this year. Haven demand balanced out the pressure from a strong USD following mixed US labor data. Silver rose 0.9% to 31.38, while palladium increased by 0.9% to 1,040.85 per ounce. Platinum remained unchanged. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • A few trending stocks at support BAM MNKD RBBN at https://stockconsultant.com/?MNKD
    • BMBL Bumble stock watch, pull back to 7.94 support area with high trade quality at https://stockconsultant.com/?BMBL
    • LUMN Lumen Technologies stock watch, pull back to 7.43 support area with bullish indicators at https://stockconsultant.com/?LUMN
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.