Advice for All - Stop Fighting the Trend!

[clmacdougall 11]

yes - where it starts where it stops and where you are at any one particular time depends on the person and as clmacdougall says - bias, context and trend.

 

Elliot wave for me works best when it presents itself......you can often see 5 clear waves in something with a clear 3rd wave.....that is a clear alert for me the trend for those waves might be tiring..... but I never try and count the waves....I let them appear.

 

I think you just gave a clear definition of a "pseudoscience." Something that subjectively is clear to you but is impossible to make a true predictive study of.

As long as it works for you!!!

[SIUYA 11]

i would never claim trading is scientific because it is exactly that - subjective. Each persons view differs in many respects....hence why when people ask - give me something that works.....just does not work.

Most systems only work some of the time - hence its certainly not science.

Thats also why I dont try to count things like elliot wave - but to me when I see things like a 50% pullback in what I think is a retracement rally in an uptrend, and we have not done what I could see to be 5 waves, etc; etc; then it seems a pretty good bet that some of the pseudoscience might actually give me some odds the trend might continue....an if it does not, then i stop out.

It can work for everyone in some form - it just may not work for a computer.

[BlowFish 10]

 

Then one day it hit me – there is not one Elliott Wave pattern (and how it unfolds for real instead of the way it’s ‘supposed’ to) that can not be fully comprehended via the Summation of Cycles principle…

 

I am no Elliotician (though have a decent grasp of the principles). One thing that occurred to me when I looked at it is that he did not select the smallest building block to base all his stuff on. If you re-start everything with a more appropriate smaller 'wavelet' 'block' you can pretty much model price in a consistent fashion without having all the special rules and cases that EW requires.

[zdo 20]

yes - where it starts where it stops and where you are at any one particular time depends on the person and as clmacdougall says - bias, context and trend.

 

Elliot wave for me works best when it presents itself......you can often see 5 clear waves in something with a clear 3rd wave.....that is a clear alert for me the trend for those waves might be tiring..... but I never try and count the waves....I let them appear.

 

SIUYA,

 

This looked more like a reply to Response #144 at

Trading Chaos by Bill Williams - Page 2 | Trade2Win Forums

than to "Then one day it hit me ..."

 

[zdo 20]

... the smallest building block to base all his stuff on. If you re-start everything with a more appropriate smaller 'wavelet' 'block' you can pretty much model price in a consistent fashion without having all the special rules and cases that EW requires.

 

BF, Interesting...thx

Ok, I'll bite -

what does the smallest building block / wavelet look like?

zdo

[BlowFish 10]

I wondered if anyone would (bite). If you break an impulse into 2 you get essentially an ABCD type formation An impulse wave now becomes two 'bullish' ABCD's in a row and a correction is a single bearish ABCD. Image attached ,,,marvel at my paint skills

 

I just think that these building blocks are much more flexible (though you might loose some predictive aspects).

[SIUYA 11]

SIUYA,

 

This looked more like a reply to Response #144 at

Trading Chaos by Bill Williams - Page 2 | Trade2Win Forums

than to "Then one day it hit me ..."

 

 

I kind of have then become confused with what you are talking about here and/or there (as I dont frequent t2w?

 

Our points seem to be the same.... As EW can occur everywhere and it can be seen however we like....for me I dont overcomplicate it as I also dont think there is one EW pattern, but if combined with context and the trend, and I see what I would see as a EW 5 wave pattern in the time frame I am looking at then it helps keep me out of a few poor entries. I dont delve down into trying to perfect the entry - it just keeps me out of some duds.

[bim1 10]

Good seed of thought for K'NEX master builders. Fractal. bridge ideas to inspire.

Incorporate Golden ratio. All the trend line will make sense.

 

Thanks.

 

 

Ref:

BlowFish

 

I wondered if anyone would (bite). If you break an impulse into 2 you get essentially an ABCD type formation An impulse wave now becomes two 'bullish' ABCD's in a row and a correction is a single bearish ABCD. Image attached ,,,marvel at my paint skills

 

I just think that these building blocks are much more flexible (though you might loose some predictive aspects).

Attached Thumbnails

[zdo 20]

BF,

 

re: "...An impulse wave now becomes two 'bullish' ABCD's in a row... "

How do you find the demarcation btwn the two 'bullish' ABCD's ?

 

thx

 

zdo

 

ps Maybe we should move this conversation to a new 'Most basic building blocks' thread

[BlowFish 10]

I should say I did not go so far as to construct a formal framework around the observation. It was pretty much just that...an observation. I guess you would start looking for continuation into a second bullish wavelet or a corrective bearish wavelet when AB=CD. I guess all the time C 'holds' (and if the context/trend/whatever supports it) you would anticipate another bullish wavelet.

 

Of course the trouble with all this there are smaller magnitude 'wavelets' all over the place. I do think if one was to provide a bit of rigour and a few formal 'rules' you could come up with a decent framework.

 

Clyde Lee (rip) did a lot of work with swings at theswingmachine. His approach was statistical in nature if you get this sequence of ABCD's what is the probability for the next one. It was interesting work. Sadly his site has gone to a golf company since his death. Way back machine archive is offline right now too.