Usd/cad

[iwshares 10]

Hi guys. I've been doing a lot of analysis recently and have some thoughts about the USD/CAD I'd like to share.

 

We've been in a down trend for some time. 18-28/3/11 a resistance of 0.98508 was tested but not breached. Next resistance at 0.96709 was tested with a pin reversal/blowout on 18/4/11 with the next daily bar high at the resistance level. Is 21/4/11 low, a pin bar, indicating a reversal to possibly 0.96709, or just a temporary pull back? The lower lows and lower highs of the last few days would suggest we are still in a down trend.

 

With my 10:1 margin I would sell 1 lot at 0.95454 (i.e. once we breach the lowest low of recent times) with a stop loss at 0.9818, profit at 0.8361. Only problem is that is below the lowest low ever. Instead sell 2 lots at 0.95454, stop loss at 0.9636 which is a still a recent support and profit at 0.8908 which is more realistic but still an all time low.

 

What do you think? Can USD/CAD break that 5 year low?

[Tams 20]

Hi guys. I've been doing a lot of analysis recently and have some thoughts about the USD/CAD I'd like to share.

 

We've been in a down trend for some time. 18-28/3/11 a resistance of 0.98508 was tested but not breached. Next resistance at 0.96709 was tested with a pin reversal/blowout on 18/4/11 with the next daily bar high at the resistance level. Is 21/4/11 low, a pin bar, indicating a reversal to possibly 0.96709, or just a temporary pull back? The lower lows and lower highs of the last few days would suggest we are still in a down trend.

 

With my 10:1 margin I would sell 1 lot at 0.95454 (i.e. once we breach the lowest low of recent times) with a stop loss at 0.9818, profit at 0.8361. Only problem is that is below the lowest low ever. Instead sell 2 lots at 0.95454, stop loss at 0.9636 which is a still a recent support and profit at 0.8908 which is more realistic but still an all time low.

 

What do you think? Can USD/CAD break that 5 year low?

 

do you have a chart? with notes?

[TheNegotiator 13]

A trend is a trend is a trend and they say that a trend is your friend. However, I am not a breakout trader and if it were me, I would look to see what the action is like on any pullback. (btw, I am also not a forex trader)

[iwshares 10]

Hi Tams here's my chart. If you want me to add any more notes etc let me know

[BlowFish 10]

 

What do you think? Can USD/CAD break that 5 year low?

 

Personally I would not concern myself with that too much and take profits ahead of it. If I had to bet on it though I would assume that it is still support (until it actually breaks).

 

Several currencies are at or coming up to interesting levels.

[SIUYA 11]

we were discussing a similar thing in the office today.

A large number of equity brokers were busy pushing the idea that the AUD is overbought - I wonder if they actually think that the USD is oversold - as thats one of the reasons for the recent rapid rise. This whole idea of a a parabolic move seems to be becoming more prelevant - I am sure its much the same for the CAD.... highs and lows are there to be broken

[MadMarketScientist 11]

yes the I believe it will break the 5 year low ... the fundamentals tell us so (US printing money, oilsands in Canada, etc)

 

and from your chart ... the technicals also support it

 

MMS

[Mysticforex 13]

I like the setup, and the reasoning makes sense. Here is my 2 Pips.

 

With your entry and TP you have nice R/R. My only change would be:

I have always attached significance to ROUND numbers, so, I would wait for a breach of 9500, short on a bounce, and target just above 9000.

Going short also carries a slightly positive Roll.

[MadMarketScientist 11]

we were discussing a similar thing in the office today.

A large number of equity brokers were busy pushing the idea that the AUD is overbought - I wonder if they actually think that the USD is oversold - as thats one of the reasons for the recent rapid rise. This whole idea of a a parabolic move seems to be becoming more prelevant - I am sure its much the same for the CAD.... highs and lows are there to be broken

 

over the past six weeks the AUD/USD currency pair has been bullish nearly 1000 pips in Aussie strength against the US Dollar (see chart). i think this trade has a way to go

 

MMS

[BlowFish 10]

 

and from your chart ... the technicals also support it

 

MMS

 

Hi MMS Just wondering what technicals exactly? Be quite interest to hear your thinking on that.

 

Should it break down and depending on how it break) that may well be the case but I'd be interested why you might anticipate what is a major level, that remains untested will break. I am inclined to agree but wearing my traders head I would have to look for a buy down there until (if and when) the level actually breaks.

 

OP your post seemed to be focused on the actual trade rather than analysis (bravo seems to be very few of those here nowadays) Does the trade meet the criteria in your plan? Is the RR OK? Does your plan allow you to sell into support? (and regardless of any ones opinion it is support until it is broken). It really isn't necessary to 'predict' to trade successfully. Regardless of my analysis my plan will have me looking for buys down there or selling pul backs after it is clear that the level is in fact broken.

 

Finally even if we are ultimately heading lower there is a pretty good chance of a reaction (bounce) before price heads down, again wearing the traders hat I'd be looking to buy a pullback after the break.