Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

StevenSJC

Why the S&P E-Mini Stinks

Recommended Posts

Reading one of the posts just above I can say with 100% certainty guaranteed failure will come if you used those preset fixed targets - above it says 2 points and 4 points. That's a recipe for assured disaster. If I've learned anything in the years of trading futures it's never to use a fixed target and stop. It doesn't work.

 

I remember back in the earlier 2000s my typical target on the S&P was 8 points on a daytrade. Can you imagine that now? And that was multiple times a day opportunity.

 

Make sure you figure out a way that has you adjusting your target/stops with market range/volatility.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  StevenSJC said:
Reading one of the posts just above I can say with 100% certainty guaranteed failure will come if you used those preset fixed targets - above it says 2 points and 4 points. That's a recipe for assured disaster. If I've learned anything in the years of trading futures it's never to use a fixed target and stop. It doesn't work.

 

I remember back in the earlier 2000s my typical target on the S&P was 8 points on a daytrade. Can you imagine that now? And that was multiple times a day opportunity.

 

Make sure you figure out a way that has you adjusting your target/stops with market range/volatility.

 

Your completely right buts its VERY difficult to think of a way. I was thinking of incorporating some type of volality study to monitor daily, possible ATR? I think i did some backtesting but it was inconsistent. Any suggestions?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  phoenix01 said:
Your completely right buts its VERY difficult to think of a way. I was thinking of incorporating some type of volality study to monitor daily, possible ATR? I think i did some backtesting but it was consistent. Any suggestions?

 

Why not consider how large the range is on the first hour of trading, along with using a relative volume study that tells you whether we are above or below average or median? It's not perfect but it will keep your expectations realistic perhaps.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  phoenix01 said:
Your completely right buts its VERY difficult to think of a way. I was thinking of incorporating some type of volality study to monitor daily, possible ATR? I think i did some backtesting but it was inconsistent. Any suggestions?

 

Using ATR and also Standard Deviation for stop-losses and profit targets seems to be quite common. It's usually pretty easy to set up on your chart by adapting an exisiting indicator (such as the Keltner Channel for ATR or the Bollinger Bands for Standard Deviation). Commonly, you'd want to leave the number of periods over which the volatility measure is calculated at an appropriate level (usually something shorter than the default though - you might look at something like the last 8 periods), but drop the average around which the bands are plotted down to 1 (ie. just the close).

 

This means that the channel will now plot, for example, 1.5 eight-period Average True Ranges above the closing price - if you enter on the close then your profit target is the upper band. Obviously you can adjust the number of ATRs you wish to target.

 

A slightly more sophisticated method is to use plot the upper band based ATRs/SDevs of the high price, around a one period average of the highs, and the lower band based based ATRs/SDevs of the low price, around a one period average of the lows. The idea here is to make a distinction between bullish volatility and bearish volatility.

 

If you happen to use TradeStation as your trading platform, then I can probably post some EL code for this.

 

Hope that's helpful, and doesn't just read as complete gibberish!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  BlueHorseshoe said:
Using ATR and also Standard Deviation for stop-losses and profit targets seems to be quite common. It's usually pretty easy to set up on your chart by adapting an exisiting indicator (such as the Keltner Channel for ATR or the Bollinger Bands for Standard Deviation). Commonly, you'd want to leave the number of periods over which the volatility measure is calculated at an appropriate level (usually something shorter than the default though - you might look at something like the last 8 periods), but drop the average around which the bands are plotted down to 1 (ie. just the close).

 

This means that the channel will now plot, for example, 1.5 eight-period Average True Ranges above the closing price - if you enter on the close then your profit target is the upper band. Obviously you can adjust the number of ATRs you wish to target.

 

A slightly more sophisticated method is to use plot the upper band based ATRs/SDevs of the high price, around a one period average of the highs, and the lower band based based ATRs/SDevs of the low price, around a one period average of the lows. The idea here is to make a distinction between bullish volatility and bearish volatility.

 

If you happen to use TradeStation as your trading platform, then I can probably post some EL code for this.

 

Hope that's helpful, and doesn't just read as complete gibberish!

 

I will definitely look into this, looks like a really good option. My only problem with Bollinger bands and even the keltner channels is that i trade the pit session chart so usually there a gap on my chart. Therefore the bands completely play up for the first hour or so. Maybe i'll keep up a full session chart. But thanks for the suggestion.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  joshdance said:
Why not consider how large the range is on the first hour of trading, along with using a relative volume study that tells you whether we are above or below average or median? It's not perfect but it will keep your expectations realistic perhaps.

 

The only problem is that i quiet often place a trade in the first hour if its a strong open, so i would have no idea how to set the targets till a lot later.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  phoenix01 said:
The only problem is that i quiet often place a trade in the first hour if its a strong open, so i would have no idea how to set the targets till a lot later.

 

Look at the globex volume up until the open. Plot it against a 20 or 30 day median, and see where it is in relation to it at the open. Look at the globex range. Look at the volume on the first two or three minutes of the RTH session-- do a statistical analysis (don't be scared) and see if there is a correlation between any of these things (globex range, globex volume, first three minutes volume of pit session) and the range of the RTH session. I have no idea if there is, but my gut says there is some, but again, not too hard to run an analysis on this with the right software.

 

Ultimately the market should say where your stop should be initially, and it will incidentally be higher or lower depending on the volatility. For example, if the prior low that you feel price should not reach is 1.5 points down, a 2 point stop will do. If it's 3 points away and you really think that's where it should be, you'll have to either risk more, or pass on the trade. Same for targets. Where do you think it will go given the current behavior of the market; look at today's ES for example. I took a trade whose target was 1311.00 (I was stopped BE early on) because I based that target on the chart, AND given the low volume, I felt it was reasonable; I should not hope for 30 points on a day like today, for example.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  phoenix01 said:
My only problem with Bollinger bands and even the keltner channels is that i trade the pit session chart so usually there a gap on my chart. Therefore the bands completely play up for the first hour or so.

 

I know exactly what you mean - I experience the same frustrations as I only trade the S&P cash session. If you happen to be using TradeStation then there is a simple way around this problem (but unfortunately I can't help you with any other charting package)?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is there anyway to pick what the best days to trade the ES market on facts regarding volume, volatility, news annoucments etc etc. I don't have a back testing software and was wondering if people had noticed any correlations with good trending days.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  phoenix01 said:
Is there anyway to pick what the best days to trade the ES market on facts regarding volume, volatility, news annoucments etc etc......
Not in today's market and not for a long time anyway.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  phoenix01 said:
Is there anyway to pick what the best days to trade the ES market on facts regarding volume, volatility, news annoucments etc etc. I don't have a back testing software and was wondering if people had noticed any correlations with good trending days.

 

I trade smaller on Monday and Friday, a lot of times Monday is a gap and go day so there may only be one entry into the trend. Tues-Thurs is when a lot of the money is made during the week.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have to react on the OP.

 

50 is a joke. I trade 50 contracts on the 6E on normal market hours and I get a fill instantly.

 

I have personally traded over 150 contracts on the ES and got instant fills.

 

A friend trader has placed 2000 contracts and got a fill on the ES.

 

If you think 50 contracts is a problem getting a fill you have never traded 50 contracts on the ES.

 

I have traded the ES on a daily basis and my last losing day is more than 40 days ago. I'm profitable every month on the ES.

 

If there is anybody who doesn't believe it. I'm willing to attest that officially by somebody who officially edits my account at Interactive Brokers.

 

This thread is nonsense.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  metaltrade said:
.........

If there is anybody who doesn't believe it. I'm willing to attest that officially by somebody who officially edits my account at Interactive Brokers.

 

This thread is nonsense.

Well if it wasn't it sure is now.

 

Officially edits :haha:

 

The word is audit.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  SunTrader said:
Well if it wasn't it sure is now.

 

Officially edits :haha:

 

The word is audit.

 

 

Haha, that's really funny, sorry my first langauge isn't english.

 

I can't edit that post either.

 

But still, my offer is there, if there is somebody willing to officially audit my trading account no problem for me.

 

I also want to point out, today was a medium slow day trading for me the ES but fills were no problem at all. I only traded with 20 contracts.

 

It is true that EPiQ (estimated position in the que) of software I use (X-trader) helps, but it's typically for a losing trader to blame it on the instrument.

 

In fact, I need guys like the OP to make money. i hope they keep doing what they do.

 

THANKS FOR THE MONEY ANYWAY.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  metaltrade said:
I have to react on the OP.

 

50 is a joke. I trade 50 contracts on the 6E on normal market hours and I get a fill instantly.

 

I have personally traded over 150 contracts on the ES and got instant fills.

 

A friend trader has placed 2000 contracts and got a fill on the ES.

 

If you think 50 contracts is a problem getting a fill you have never traded 50 contracts on the ES.

 

I have traded the ES on a daily basis and my last losing day is more than 40 days ago. I'm profitable every month on the ES.

 

If there is anybody who doesn't believe it. I'm willing to attest that officially by somebody who officially edits my account at Interactive Brokers.

 

This thread is nonsense.

 

You trade 50 clips ES with IB? Why? You are getting jacked.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  gosu said:
You trade 50 clips ES with IB? Why? You are getting jacked.

 

I don't only trade on IB, I'm also with Velocity and Deepdiscounttrading.

 

I just called out IB because I thought you guys would accept it more easely :-)

 

I'm profitable on all 3 accounts.

 

I pay $3.32 for 1 ES trade RoundTrip ALL IN (so including clearing & exchange, NFA Fee, commission)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

" It's very difficult at times to get a fill unless price moves through your price."

That happens in every very liquid market that exists.

 

"More important is the chart that showed Average Yearly Tick Movement across all the major index futures. Lowest rank? The S&P e-mini vs. the Dow, Nasdaq, Russell small and mid-cap."

What is "Average Yearly Tick Movement" and what is its significance?

It is not clear what you are recommending: Russell 2000 (small or mid-cap?) (mini) futures as a better trade for the small trader than the emini S&P?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  cma6 said:
Doesn't ES just trade tick for tick off of SP?

How can there be much of an arb?

 

As Sting once wrote in a song:

 

I will turn your face to alabaster

Then you'll find your servant is your master.

 

ES rules now even when factoring in it being 1/5th the size of SP so the arb is the other way.

 

Today 1.7m contracts traded vs under 10k

 

But it does exist, only in fractional seconds though for the guys along side the pit.

Edited by SunTrader

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date: 7th April 2025.   Asian Markets Plunge as US-China Trade War Escalates; Wall Street Futures Signal Further Turmoil.   Global financial markets extended last week’s massive sell-off as tensions between the US and its major trading partners deepened, rattling investors and prompting sharp declines across equities, commodities, and currencies. The fallout from President Trump’s sweeping new tariff measures continued to spread, raising fears of a full-blown trade war and economic recession.   Asian stock markets plunged on Monday, extending a global market rout fueled by rising tensions between the US and China. The latest wave of aggressive tariffs and retaliatory measures has unnerved investors worldwide, triggering sharp sell-offs across the Asia-Pacific region.   Asian equities led the global rout on Monday, with dramatic losses seen across the region. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index tumbled more than 8% shortly after the open, while the broader Topix fell over 6.5%, recovering only slightly from steeper losses. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite sank 6.7%, and the blue-chip CSI300 dropped 7.5% as markets reopened following a public holiday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index opened more than 9% lower, reflecting deep concerns about escalating trade tensions.           South Korea’s Kospi dropped 4.8%, triggering a circuit breaker designed to curb panic selling. Taiwan’s Taiex index collapsed by nearly 10%, with major tech exporters like TSMC and Foxconn hitting circuit breaker limits after each fell close to 10%. Meanwhile, Australia’s ASX 200 shed as much as 6.3%, and New Zealand’s NZX 50 lost over 3.5%.   Despite the escalation, Beijing has adopted a measured tone. Chinese officials urged investors not to panic and assured markets that the country has the tools to mitigate economic shocks. At the same time, they left the door open for renewed trade talks, though no specific timeline has been set.   US Stock Futures Plunge Ahead of Monday Open   US stock futures pointed to another brutal day on Wall Street. Futures tied to the S&P 500 dropped over 3%, Nasdaq futures sank 4%, and Dow Jones futures lost 2.5%—equivalent to nearly 1,000 points. The Nasdaq Composite officially entered a bear market on Friday, down more than 20% from its recent highs, while the S&P 500 is nearing bear territory. The Dow closed last week in correction. Oil prices followed suit, with WTI crude dropping over 4% to $59.49 per barrel—its lowest since April 2021.   Wall Street closed last week in disarray, erasing more than $5 trillion in value amid fears of an all-out trade war. The Nasdaq Composite officially entered a bear market on Friday, sinking more than 20% from its recent peak. The S&P 500 is approaching bear territory, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has slipped firmly into correction territory.   German Banks Hit Hard Amid Escalating Trade Tensions   German banking stocks were among the worst hit in Europe. Shares of Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank plunged between 9.5% and 10.3% during early Frankfurt trading, compounding Friday’s steep losses. Fears over a global trade war and looming recession are severely impacting the financial sector, particularly export-driven economies like Germany.   Eurozone Growth at Risk   Eurozone officials are bracing for economic fallout, with Greek central bank governor Yannis Stournaras warning that Trump’s tariff policy could reduce eurozone GDP by up to 1%. The EU is preparing retaliatory tariffs on $28 billion worth of American goods—ranging from steel and aluminium to consumer products like dental floss and luxury jewellery.   Starting Wednesday, the US is expected to impose 25% tariffs on key EU exports, with Brussels ready to respond with its own 20% levies on nearly all remaining American imports.   UK Faces £22 Billion Economic Blow   In the UK, fresh research from KPMG revealed that the British economy could shrink by £21.6 billion by 2027 due to US-imposed tariffs. The analysis points to a 0.8% dip in economic output over the next two years, undermining Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ growth agenda. The report also warned of additional fiscal pressure that may lead to future tax increases and public spending cuts.   Wall Street Braces for Recession   Goldman Sachs revised its US recession probability to 45% within the next year, citing tighter financial conditions and rising policy uncertainty. This marks a sharp jump from the 35% risk estimated just last month—and more than double January’s 20% projection. J.P. Morgan issued a bleaker outlook, now forecasting a 60% chance of recession both in the US and globally.   Global Leaders Respond as Trade Tensions Deepen   The dramatic market sell-off was triggered by China’s sweeping retaliation to a new round of US tariffs, which included a 34% levy on all American imports. Beijing’s state-run People’s Daily released a defiant statement, asserting that China has the tools and resilience to withstand economic pressure from Washington. ‘We’ve built up experience after years of trade conflict and are prepared with a full arsenal of countermeasures,’ it stated.   Around the world, policymakers are responding to the growing threat of a trade-led economic slowdown. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced plans to appeal directly to Washington and push for tariff relief, following the US administration’s decision to impose a blanket 24% tariff on Japanese imports. He aims to visit the US soon to present Japan’s case as a fair trade partner.   In Taiwan, President Lai Ching-te said his administration would work closely with Washington to remove trade barriers and increase purchases of American goods in an effort to reduce the bilateral trade deficit. The island's defence ministry has also submitted a new list of US military procurements to highlight its strategic partnership.   Economists and strategists are warning of deeper economic consequences. Ronald Temple, chief market strategist at Lazard, said the scale and speed of these tariffs could result in far more severe damage than previously anticipated. ‘This isn’t just a bilateral conflict anymore — more countries are likely to respond in the coming weeks,’ he noted.   Analysts at Barclays cautioned that smaller Asian economies, such as Singapore and South Korea, may face challenges in negotiating with Washington and are already adjusting their economic growth forecasts downward in response to the unfolding trade crisis.           Oil Prices Sink on Demand Concerns   Crude oil continued its sharp slide on Monday, driven by recession fears and weakened global demand. Brent fell 3.9% to $63.04 a barrel, while WTI plunged over 4% to $59.49—both benchmarks marking weekly losses exceeding 10%. Analysts say inflationary pressures and slowing economic activity may drag demand down, even though energy imports were excluded from the latest round of tariffs.   Vandana Hari of Vanda Insights noted, ‘The market is struggling to find a bottom. Until there’s a clear signal from Trump that calms recession fears, crude prices will remain under pressure.’   OPEC+ Adds Further Pressure with Output Hike   Bearish sentiment intensified after OPEC+ announced it would boost production by 411,000 barrels per day in May, far surpassing the expected 135,000 bpd. The alliance called on overproducing nations to submit compensation plans by April 15. Analysts fear this surprise move could undo years of supply discipline and weigh further on already fragile oil markets.   Global political risks also flared over the weekend. Iran rejected US proposals for direct nuclear negotiations and warned of potential military action. Meanwhile, Russia claimed fresh territorial gains in Ukraine’s Sumy region and ramped up attacks on surrounding areas—further darkening the outlook for markets.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Andria Pichidi HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • AMZN Amazon stock watch, good buying (+313%) toi hold onto the 173.32 support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?AMZN
    • META stock watch, local support and resistance areas at 507.48, 557.84 at https://stockconsultant.com/?META
    • TMUS T-Mobile stock, watch for a top of range breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?TMUS
    • KULR KULR Technology stock watch, pullback to 1.25 triple support area with bullish indicators at https://stockconsultant.com/?KULR
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.