End of QE2 - How Are You Going to Trade It?

[MadMarketScientist 11]

so we all know the Fed's "quantitative easing" is coming to an end June 30 ... how are you going to trade it? i think the following is going to happen:

 

- dollar rises

- yen\euro drop

- commodities drop

- interest rates rise ...

 

- then QE3 will start again to lower the rate and the exact opposite will happen

 

MMS

[Tams 20]

USA will print more money...

 

and the economy will improve,

and everybody will be happy.

 

let the grandchildren's grandchildren worry about the debt.

[MightyMouse 12]

Bernanke has already committed to "reinvesting proceeds" and stating that he doesn't want to have the economy go "cold turkey". It all means that he is not going to stop printing.

 

"Cold turkey" is usually used with terms like Junkie or Alcoholic. I would generally not use the term "cold turkey" in the same sentence with anything healthy.

 

In this case, I believe he is not ready to put away the smoke and mirrors to expose what is really there. So, we will hear about qe3 by September.

 

I plan to only trade ES and I will try to get a piece if it if it goes up and a piece of it if it goes down. If it goes nowhere, then it will probably get a piece of me.

[MightyMouse 12]

USA will print more money...

 

and the economy will improve,

and everybody will be happy.

 

let the grandchildren's grandchildren worry about the debt.

 

The US would never try to do that. That would be irresponsible. However, they will try to export our fiscal irresponsibility to other greedy dictatorial puppet governments that have been sponsored by the US and have them stuff it onto their children's children.

 

There are only a handful of times in history where governments have paid back debt. Hard for me to believe that we will be a part of that handful.

 

 

MM

[thalestrader 14]

QE2 will likely not end in June. Bernanke & Co. only stated an intention to purchase 600B by June - he never said 600B was the limit, or that June would be the end.

 

The real problem is that high gas prices are now pinching consumer and small business spending. The last recession, in my opinion, was the result of $3-$4 gasoline, and not the financial banking crisis. The financial crisis would have been averted or at least delayed had the consumer not been beaten by the need to divert discretionary dollars into Energy company coffers. My guess is that the market will top sometime between September-February, with another full-blown recession to follow.

 

However, for now, we are in a Bull market, and I will trade it accordingly until such time as price indicates the trend has changed from bull to bear.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[SIUYA 11]

QE2 is still going????

[MadMarketScientist 11]

If he doesn't stop the dollar is going into a freefall ... what are the foreign creditors going to do? What are the American people going to do if super-inflation hits? (inflation is already happening ...)

 

I don't see any good scenarios?

 

QE2 will likely not end in June. Bernanke & Co. only stated an intention to purchase 600B by June - he never said 600B was the limit, or that June would be the end.

 

The real problem is that high gas prices are now pinching consumer and small business spending. The last recession, in my opinion, was the result of $3-$4 gasoline, and not the financial banking crisis. The financial crisis would have been averted or at least delayed had the consumer not been beaten by the need to divert discretionary dollars into Energy company coffers. My guess is that the market will top sometime between September-February, with another full-blown recession to follow.

 

However, for now, we are in a Bull market, and I will trade it accordingly until such time as price indicates the trend has changed from bull to bear.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Stock Trader One 10]

USA will print more money...

 

and the economy will improve,

and everybody will be happy.

 

let the grandchildren's grandchildren worry about the debt.

 

This looks like the right analysis

[MightyMouse 12]

If he doesn't stop the dollar is going into a freefall ... what are the foreign creditors going to do? What are the American people going to do if super-inflation hits? (inflation is already happening ...)

 

I don't see any good scenarios?

 

MMS,

 

You are forgetting that the IPAD 2 is twice the computer at the same cost as the IPAD. So not everything is going up in price.

 

For Fed's Dudley, iPad comment falls flat in Queens | Reuters

 

MM

[FL LOw 10]

I have joined in the force of forex trading since i was in colleague 5 years ago.

[silentdud 10]

Tam's, how do you plan on actually capturing the returns in that chain through Forex and distinguishing it from noise? The effect from the QE2 ending will probably be realized way ahead of time. I don't think you can play it.

 

I think that the FOMC is going to raise I-rates immediately following. What is core inflation at right now? What are the leading indicators for core inflation saying?

[zdo 20]

...This is happening in part because investors see their play as a hedge against hyperinflation. While the rest of the world uses the current calculation of the Consumer Price Index as a proxy for the cost of goods, some farmland investors are using a different equation, one from 1980. These investors assert inflation should be calculated the way it was before the Boskin Commission's 1996 reworking of the CPI formula-in which case, it would be much, much higher.

 

"The CPI supposedly today is something like 1.5 percent," says the hedge fund manager. "We think the actual rate of inflation is something closer to 6 or 7 percent on an annual basis. It's also not about what it's been over the last 10 years; it's about what it's going to be over the next 10 years."

 

Hedge Farm! The Doomsday Food Price Scenario Turning Hedgies into Survivalists | The New York Observer

 

Hopefully QE3 will be more 'fun' to trade than was QE2...

QE2 was a no brainer... buy PM's

 

For the long run, I'm buying light factory space in rural southeast... using low leverage...

 

goodbye world 6 pm

[pbylina 10]

I think Euro could bounce off of the 38.2 fib and rise to were it was in 2008. Also at the 38.2 fib is the Daily 200sma...