Emini S&P 500 Short Term Trading

[MightyMouse 12]

stop is set at 1313.25

[Tams 20]

this is the earnings week...

throw a dart, any analysis/prediction is going to hit something, miss something.

 

 

 

 

 

.

Edited April 13, 2011 by Tams

[MightyMouse 12]

Stop is moved back to 1319

[MightyMouse 12]

this is the earnings week...

throw a dart, any analysis/prediction is going to hit something, miss something.

 

 

 

 

 

.

 

I didn't realize it my dart throwing was that obvious.

[joshdance 10]

Looking forward to your ES comments MM.

[MightyMouse 12]

Looking forward to your ES comments MM.

 

Hey Josh!

 

What I hope to show is the constant assessment and reassessment of risk and reward when I am in a trade. It differs dramatically from the set it and forget it approach of "target or stop". I also hope to post a big winner and demonstrate how to take advantage of the leverage in the futures market. The trade I got out of earlier was a dud that I got out of with a profit. It was not what I call a winner.

 

You'll see wins, losses, good moves and bad moves. All decisions, right or wrong are made with information derived from price, time, and volume. I do not pretend to think that I am always right or that I know what the market is going to do and I certainly do not think that I am the best. You will see every decision made live and before it is executed. There is no cheating and what you see is what I get.

 

My edge will become apparent over time and it is not something you will find by staring at a chart or back testing data.

 

Also, I do not pretend to make a living trading, but I do make money. If someone had enough money and his expenses were low enough, he could make a living doing what I do. But, my expenses are too high and I do not have the capital to generate the income I need.

 

I certainly hope that others join in and post a trade. es can get lonely

 

MM

[MightyMouse 12]

My stop is staying at 1319.

 

A disadvantage of being an individual discretionary trader in a 24 hour market is that I need to sleep at some point and I can't make trading decisions in my sleep.

[MightyMouse 12]

It seems like es has that really nice stacked bid look to it which will encourage traders to buy at the ask and ultimately give inside sellers to opportunity to sell higher and hit the bid to get to their standing buy limit orders below the low which coincide with the stop orders sitting there from the buyers who risked buying and placed a stop below the overnight and yesterday low.

 

I still see the direction as down even though we have balanced here from yesterday at about noon or so. I will give it as much room as a possibly can to move. if it presses lower and then reverses up back through the range I am likely going to want to get out. But there is time to decide and my stop remains at 1319

Edited April 14, 2011 by MightyMouse

[MightyMouse 12]

As I was typing the low broke. I am really glad I am short and it is very difficult for me to take credit for being in the right direction. I really think that credit should be given to the buyers who tried to call the low and the nice sellers who had the fortitude to press lower to seek the sweet, sweet free order flow created by the sell stops of buyers. For that I am grateful.

 

If it should break hard below 1300, I will add at 1286.25 then more below that. My stop is still at the same and I will move it down soon.

[TheNegotiator 13]

At the moment the overnight action seems to be very much about probing. I could just as easily see us testing yesterday's high again as pushing on through the 1300 figure. We shall see of course.

[MightyMouse 12]

At the moment the overnight action seems to be very much about probing. I could just as easily see us testing yesterday's high again as pushing on through the 1300 figure. We shall see of course.

 

Yeah I would call the overnight action junk with some successful stop hunting and ditto on what may happen next.

 

It looks like bottom fishers who bought are already offering out some of their position so it remains to be seen what they will do with their remaining contracts. So, are they going to be strong buyers with the rest of their contracts and not dump or will they dump and try top buy lower?

 

If they are weak they will dump, if they are strong there won't be much selling when we probe lower. If we probe lower.

[MightyMouse 12]

Unfortunately, the risk isn't shrinking much on this trade. I am moving my stop to 1317 from 1319 and I will move it to BE if we get to 1294.50. You don't always get what you want. That is where the stop stands now but that may change.

Edited April 14, 2011 by MightyMouse

[MightyMouse 12]

Once again I feel the need to express my gratitude to the traders who put their money on the line and provide liquidity at the low trying to call the bottom of a down move. Without your help, we would be going up. So for that, I am grateful.

[TheNegotiator 13]

I'm not sure they're listening MM! :o

 

Nice way of getting other traders to think about the implications of other traders' actions.

[MightyMouse 12]

I have to consider here that a bear trap may be developing. If it is, then I am going to want out. At this point, I would get out at 1308 if we do not go lower soon. It is too easy for the overnight traders to move this around on no volume and then make a happy person sad. I'll get out there and possibly get in short again. If I do move my stop to 1308, I will post it.Otherwise, it stays where it is. I moved the stop to 1316.

Edited April 14, 2011 by MightyMouse

[MightyMouse 12]

moving stop to 1306.5 if we do not get below the 98.25 low

[MightyMouse 12]

It looks like there is a lot of aggressive buying coming in. If it continues i will not get out at 1306.5. Those traders are exactly who i need to come in so I do not want to get out yet. I am staying short with my stop at 1314.25

[MightyMouse 12]

If we can get below 4.25 before we get above 8.25, I would say that the buying is over. But I am biased by hope.

[MightyMouse 12]

I am staying short until 1314.25 and possibly reversing to go long there if we get there.

[MightyMouse 12]

Going to bail at 1311.5

[joshdance 10]

Right now it's at 1310 or so, and the daily pivot is 1311 .. you may get fished at 11.5 right before a move lower (which looks impending before the day is over) but for your sake i hope it will turn south at or before the pivot so your stop remains intact.

[MightyMouse 12]

Right now it's at 1310 or so, and the daily pivot is 1311 .. you may get fished at 11.5 right before a move lower (which looks impending before the day is over) but for your sake i hope it will turn south at or before the pivot so your stop remains intact.

 

I'm out. I gave it everything i was going to give it based on what I was seeing. took a small loss. Sucks but you live by your decisions. It was a decision that I would make again and again.

 

If it does go back down from here, I will get back in short down at like 1304.If it goes to 1314.25, I am going to enter long.

[Tams 20]

it is the pre-Google effect

[MightyMouse 12]

it is the pre-Google effect

 

I knew that and ignored it.

[MightyMouse 12]

Scratch the 1314.25 entry. Leaving for the day.