Emini S&P 500 Short Term Trading

[MightyMouse 12]

Filled on the first add and my stop is brought up to 1318.25. Hopefully, the days activity acts as a cushion against any attempt to go down.

 

Oh, I love trading.

Edited April 20, 2011 by MightyMouse

[MightyMouse 12]

The trade I am in isn't over yet. But, I did want to make a comment to anyone new who thinks you have to catch the bottom tick to make money.

 

I entered this trade at 1310 and took almost no heat. 1310 was 20 points from the low of 1290ish. If someone other than I were in this trade, he could take about 25 points and put them in his pocket and spend them. I am not that person. Not only would he have taken 25 points, but he would have missed the low by 20 points. I know that a lot of traders who miss getting the low for a long start to want to take a short.

 

I am staying in it because there is really no good reason to get out, but in addition, there is a really good chance that we go to new highs and if that happens, I want to try to be in it. I am not going to throw caution to the wind, but i am going to do my damnedest to try and ride it I will likely have about 7 contracts crossing 1350. I will continue to add above it at a faster and faster rate, until I get to around 20 contracts. This could end up being the largest gain I have ever had.

 

Of course things could change as early as tonight and i will have to bail at a small gain or with no profit.

[joshdance 10]

Nice job MM.

 

I am one of those who feels the need to stand by if I don't get in to the low tick, BUT I am starting to change my perspective. In oil today, for example, I was looking for longs, but missed the initial move up even though there was clear evidence to go long at 10:15ET (near retest of previous day's high after moving up in Globex, duh). I thought a reversal was going to happen at 110.85, but after we broke through I waited for a retest of the 85 and while I didn't quite have the cajones to enter the trade, I was at least looking for longs, not shorts. That's improvement, in my book, and in my theoretical paper trade, my target is 114.00. At this point that trade would be in the money over 100 ticks and I'd have my stop tight enough where I would likely get stopped out (111.79), BUT it would have been a good entry and a good trade so far.

 

Thanks for allowing me to see your perspective.. while I want a good entry, often times what I think is "chasing" is really just jumping on the train for what could be a long long ride. If the move is to be 800 ticks, as we've seen happen in 2 days with crude, then jumping in after 100 or 200 or even 400 ticks is jumping in relatively early. If you think about when oil was valued at $40 a barrel, then buying anywhere up here is buying "at the top" ... BUT, if the top is to be $150 a barrel, which is completely realistic even before the summer is over, then buying at this "top" is in fact a bargain!

[MightyMouse 12]

Nice job MM.

 

I am one of those who feels the need to stand by if I don't get in to the low tick, BUT I am starting to change my perspective. In oil today, for example, I was looking for longs, but missed the initial move up even though there was clear evidence to go long at 10:15ET (near retest of previous day's high after moving up in Globex, duh). I thought a reversal was going to happen at 110.85, but after we broke through I waited for a retest of the 85 and while I didn't quite have the cajones to enter the trade, I was at least looking for longs, not shorts. That's improvement, in my book, and in my theoretical paper trade, my target is 114.00. At this point that trade would be in the money over 100 ticks and I'd have my stop tight enough where I would likely get stopped out (111.79), BUT it would have been a good entry and a good trade so far.

 

Thanks for allowing me to see your perspective.. while I want a good entry, often times what I think is "chasing" is really just jumping on the train for what could be a long long ride. If the move is to be 800 ticks, as we've seen happen in 2 days with crude, then jumping in after 100 or 200 or even 400 ticks is jumping in relatively early. If you think about when oil was valued at $40 a barrel, then buying anywhere up here is buying "at the top" ... BUT, if the top is to be $150 a barrel, which is completely realistic even before the summer is over, then buying at this "top" is in fact a bargain!

 

Josh,

 

Thanks.

 

It's not over until its over Though, I cannot lose right now, a possibility exists that I do not win too, Pressing for more has a double edge to it.

 

There were a few times when I had the the right direction, the right bias, etc and I had a limit order in to get long and it went to my limit order and no fill and proceeds to go higher and higher. Like a fool I started taking shorts for reasons that I could explain, but just were not good. That had to stop.

 

A market is going to go where it is going to go regardless of whether we think it is going to go there or not. So, I want to simply be on it and not question if it should be going where it is going.

 

In oil, I wouldn't look for a "top" and also consider that in days it could be back down in the 70's 80's, 60's, etc. Everything falls faster than it goes up. Either way just try to be on it.

 

MM

[MightyMouse 12]

To state the obvious, we are in an obvious shorter term down move. At this point if we get above 1333, I would feel comfortable thinking that the move down is over.

 

At that point it will look like a lot of selling occurred in a very small range and to me that is bullish if the shorter term direction turns to up. But, for now this looks like it wants to continue lower.

 

Going out a bit wider, the span my trade is in, the direction is still up and I am staying long.

[MightyMouse 12]

I am leaving my order in at 3975 for an add. I somehow doubt it will get there before the European open if it gets there at all.

 

Currently if we do not move above 1334.50, which is the current high, I will get out of all positions at 1326.25. If we do move above it, I will trail it up by 33 ticks until we hit 1337 At that point. I will put the stop back at 1318.25. And see what develops next

[MightyMouse 12]

Will exit all if we do not go above 1335.25 and touch 1327.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Why not use 1335.75 as that was a double top on 6th & 8th April?

[MightyMouse 12]

Why not use 1335.75 as that was a double top on 6th & 8th April?

 

I do not use highs or lows of days or weeks as entry or exit signals. They certainly are curious monuments and they do get reactions, but they do not cause me to react. At times they work and I give some up and other times they accelerate the direction of my trade.

 

Additionally, I am doing everything i can to stay in this trade, not get out of it.

[MightyMouse 12]

I don't expect to survive this move down. I will let it take me out at 1327.

[MightyMouse 12]

I don't expect to survive this move down. I will let it take me out at 1327.

 

Hopefully, at this point I am safe. However, i will still bail at 1327.

[MightyMouse 12]

Lucky Lucky Lucky.

 

My stop is back to 1318.25 and I will move it up to 1323.75 if I get another add filled at 1339.75.

 

I survived being stopped out purely by luck. All that had to happen for me to get taken out at 1327 was to have one more very large institutional market order execute and push prices down when price was at 1327.25. But, it didn't happen. My safety stop at 1327 was not randomly placed there, but it is random luck that I did not get taken out there. Whatever you do, do not mistake the stop at 1327 as some stroke of brilliance, because I assure you it wasn't.

 

It could all backfire today, or maybe not. But in order to get a larger gain you have to risk losing the small gain. No pain no gain.

[MightyMouse 12]

Adding at 43.75 next if it continues to go higher. If we do not go higher than 40.25, i will likely bail out of all at 1332 if conditions remain the same.

 

I love trading!

Edited April 26, 2011 by MightyMouse
Forgot to say I love trading

[MightyMouse 12]

Stop is moved back to 1323.75. If i get filled at 1343.75, I'll move my stop to 1327.75.

 

I move the stop when i think there is a high risk of me being trapped in the wrong direction. Whether it is right or wrong, it makes me feel good.

[Tams 20]

 

...Whether it is right or wrong, it makes me feel good.

 

isn't this what trading is about?

[MightyMouse 12]

isn't this what trading is about?

 

Feeling good? Yes!

Winning? Yes!

[MightyMouse 12]

BE stop is at 1327.75.

 

I do not plan on BE, but that is the worst I will do. If we go up further I am adding at 1347. If something develops, I may bail sooner than 1327.75.

[MightyMouse 12]

Normally, I trade CL in a similar fashion and the move that has occurred from 1310 to here usually happens in about 30 minutes or so.

 

My experience with these trades as the adds increase the profit and the stop gets moved up, is that pressure builds in your head as you have more and more of a profit to lose. You have to experience it to understand it fully.

 

In CL it is so fast sometimes when the adds come on that I literally find myself not breathing at that point I hit market order to get out. Es is slow so I do not see the need for the panicked exit yet, but I do feel the pressure building as we move up. I am hoping I can remain rational.

 

At this pont, if we do not go above 1344.25 and we hit 1336, I am out of all.

[MightyMouse 12]

if we don't go higher than 1346.25, i am bailing at 1338 unless something changes.

[MightyMouse 12]

Shorting the high is always a great idea on an up move or trend day.

[joshdance 10]

Normally, I trade CL in a similar fashion and the move that has occurred from 1310 to here usually happens in about 30 minutes or so.

 

You posted this at 11:45 and around 12:15 a nice move down happened on CL. I assume that's what you meant? Good job! Good job with your trade management here as well MM. Any reason you can think of for the timing on these moves? Any other times of day you pay attention to on CL?

[MightyMouse 12]

stop is off 38 and is now at 1334. It is going to suck if this doesn't go back. My stop being movedf to 1334 is part of the plan and not an emotional decision. If condsitions change i will move the stop back to 1338, but in no way will it go lower than 1334 now.

 

If it does go up, I am adding at 1347 and again at 1349.75 and will get out by the end of the day if I get those fills.

[MightyMouse 12]

You posted this at 11:45 and around 12:15 a nice move down happened on CL. I assume that's what you meant? Good job! Good job with your trade management here as well MM. Any reason you can think of for the timing on these moves? Any other times of day you pay attention to on CL?

 

ha ha. no. The move in es from 1310 to where it is. If the comment coincided with a move in CL that is plain awesome but I had no idea it would move.

 

A 30 point move which is 120 ticks took a week in es, but it takes no time in CL. Cl can do 120 ticks in minutes as I am sure you are completely aware.

 

Cl is very much like ES in the sense that there is a London or European move, and then a move starting around 830 est, and then maybe a move at the end of the pit session starting after lunch and stopping usually at 2:30. Sometimes the petroleum report moves it.

 

Moves are usually around 100 to 150 ticks and then profit taking. Usually, not always though.

[MightyMouse 12]

I really hope we have the power hour so I can get out of this. I would be incredibly happy if we got over 1350. I am probably biased but I think we should push above the current high so that some of these accumulated longs can sell into the buy stops.

[MightyMouse 12]

Moving stop back to 1338