Emini S&P 500 Short Term Trading

[MightyMouse 12]

This thread is dedicated to trading short term trades in the Emini S&P 500 contract. My definition of short term is any trade lasting more than a day and generally not longer than 10 days. Many types of swing trading strategies will fit here.

 

I have a couple of rules for posting that should help keep it nice and clean.

 

1. Since these trades allow more time for decision making, if you would like to post your trade, please post where you intend to get in and out before the fact. So, if you are going to post that you got into a short at 1320 when the market is already at 1315, and then please refrain from posting it here. If you want to post that you intend to get short at 1320 when the market is at 1315, then that is fine. If you entered at 1315 short and the market is at 1320 and you are short, then you can post it.

2. You can make any comment you like, but make sure that it is before the fact information. So, if you think that someone should have gotten out at point B because you are brilliant and you knew it was going to turn there, please refrain from posting. On the other hand, if you know it is going to turn at point B and we have not arrived at point B yet, then please share.

3. If you had an order that you say you had in that should have gotten filled and last minute you mysteriously and miraculously decided to pull it and did not post that you were pulling it, you will get called on it.

4. If you post a chart of what you did, you can do so, but only if you indicated what you were going to do before the recorded events on the chart occurred.

5. Lastly, I reserve the right to break your stones if you try to post after-the-fact information and you have to right to break my stones if I were to post after-the-fact information. Let’s keep it real.

 

I am a discretionary trader and use the dom, T&S, price, volume, and time as my indicators. I am trading live and I generally enter with stop orders. So, there is a certainty if I say that I am getting in at point A and point A is touched then I am in. The same is true on my exits. However, I do exit at market a lot to conserve a profit. I believe that 95% of the work is done after you enter a trade, not before.

 

Each of the trades I do, I start with a small position and intend on building the position but I do not always have the chance to do so.

 

I only intend on trading ES on this thread, but might trade something else later on. You do not have to trade ES only, but I ask you all to try to keep it to short term trades as I have defined above.

 

My hope with this thread is to give newer traders the experience of the ups and downs and decisions that real traders make during the course of the day, week and month. It is important to know how to win and it is equally important to know how to lose. When I began, I struggled with the idea of losses and thought that I was doing something wrong when I lost. The “traders” I knew pretended to have minimal losses and always seemed to catch the turn 1 tick from the high or low. I think the experience of seeing real traders both win and lose when I started trading would have been tremendously helpful to me.

 

Lastly, I do not intend to teach anyone anything about how or where to enter. I am posting so that you get the experience of trading.

 

Best of Luck,

 

Mighty Mouse

 

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I have a question for the ES traders out there. Years ago, many years ago I traded the ES - back in the day when the order would get routed to some dude on the floor who would sometimes accidentally (to his advantage) forget to execute the order or stuff it in his pocket until a very untimely fill. Flash forward many years and with the ES it's always bugged me the 0.25 ticks -- to me it leaves it wide open with the huge volumes on the bid/ask to have the market hit your limit on a target - and never fill.

 

I had that problem a lot and gave up on the ES and switched to the TF/NQ/YM since that problem went away. Of course the huge volumes on the ES is appealing but this lack of execution unless it goes THROUGH your limit causes a lot of doubt and frustration when you are trading and on paper the market hits your target but you never get the execution.

 

Wondering how people handle that and if it still is very regular that it occurs?

 

MMS

 

Yes it does and for that reason I only trade ES longer term and I enter with stops.

 

In fact, I am short as we speak at 1322.5 and I am underwater a little. I am hoping we work our way below 1300. I'll start adding to it at 1301 and will add further below and I'll accelerate the adds if the 1300 area acts as resistance. At the moment, my planned stop is currently 3475 and I might reverse there too but that depends on what it looks like then. It developed that nice range in the 20's and 30's that looks to me like we are either going to push through the bottom or blow through the top of it. The direction looks like it is currently down in spite of the late day pullback so I am playing it short and will continue to play it short until it looks like the direction turns from down to up. I will get slapped twice if we get stuck in this range.

 

This is not a set it and forget it trade so whether any of the above pans out depends on what develops next and has less to do with past action. So, I might have to get out with a small profit without adding or, obviously, I might get stopped out. these trades work maybe 3-4 out of 10 times. So, it's more likely to fail than succeed but that's life.

 

I am not going to be able to give a real time blow by blow but I will say when I get out or if I am able to add. I do not make decisions based on fear and greed is sort of built into it if supply keeps coming in.

 

Anyhow in the meantime I need it to get green and since it is underwater it is a good trade for newer traders to watch unfold as a win or a loss without it being an after the fact already in the money trade. I wasn't going to post it since it quickly went profitable when I entered and do not like to post that I am in a winning trade when it is already in the money. Traders with ego issues always seem to be able to take a short a few ticks from the high and also seem to tell you they are short when the trade is 5-6 points in the money. Funny how that happens and funny how they never take losses. Personally, I do not care if I take a loss or if anyone knows I took a loss. I think its important to learn how to lose since trading involves lots and lots of losses. I certainly do not want to lose and will be pissed off if I do lose.

 

The amount of risk I took on this trade is more than I would normally take on an ES trade, but I killed it in oil today and when I do have a good day, I am allowed to take a trade with added dollar risk. Since I am in this trade, I won't trade anything else until I am out of this and it will suck for me if oil moves 3 dollars on Monday. Possibly TMI

 

Regards,

 

MM

Edited April 12, 2011 by TheNegotiator

[MightyMouse 12]

In fact, I am short as we speak at 1322.5 and I am underwater a little. I am hoping we work our way below 1300. I'll start adding to it at 1301 and will add further below and I'll accelerate the adds if the 1300 area acts as resistance. At the moment, my planned stop is currently 3475 and I might reverse there too but that depends on what it looks like then. It developed that nice range in the 20's and 30's that looks to me like we are either going to push through the bottom or blow through the top of it. The direction looks like it is currently down in spite of the late day pullback so I am playing it short and will continue to play it short until it looks like the direction turns from down to up. I will get slapped twice if we get stuck in this range.

 

 

Regards,

 

MM

 

Still short and live and underwater. Hopefully, my friends across the ocean will trade with heavy boots on.

[MightyMouse 12]

Still short and live and underwater. Hopefully, my friends across the ocean will trade with heavy boots on.

 

Nothing has changed from my perspective. No reason to get out, the direction remains down. This is by no means a day trade, so I am probably posting in the wrong place.

[MightyMouse 12]

Nothing has changed from my perspective. No reason to get out, the direction remains down. This is by no means a day trade, so I am probably posting in the wrong place.

 

Still short. Basically unchanged from my entry. Oil is, of course, moving like an animal and I am missing out.

 

I won't be reversing at my stop

I need to see good volume come in as we press to the low. If I do not see higher volume come in, I will exit as soon as there is a change in direction. Without going lower than the current low of 1320.50, my stop will be at about 1328..75.

 

If we press below the low set on Friday, the stop will be different.

[MightyMouse 12]

Still short. Basically unchanged from my entry. Oil is, of course, moving like an animal and I am missing out.

 

I won't be reversing at my stop

I need to see good volume come in as we press to the low. If I do not see higher volume come in, I will exit as soon as there is a change in direction. Without going lower than the current low of 1320.50, my stop will be at about 1328..75.

 

If we press below the low set on Friday, the stop will be different.

 

Stop is moved to 1325.25. If we move lower in the overnight, I will move the stop.

 

I will either get out at the stop and not reverse or I plan on adding when we hit 1300.75.

[MightyMouse 12]

Stop is moved to 1325.25. If we move lower in the overnight, I will move the stop.

 

I will either get out at the stop and not reverse or I plan on adding when we hit 1300.75.

 

Stop is 1324.75. Direction is solidly down.The move down is low volume so I will be getting out if it reverses on high volume. But, staying short since the move is still down.

[MightyMouse 12]

Stop is 1324.75. Direction is solidly down.The move down is low volume so I will be getting out if it reverses on high volume. But, staying short since the move is still down.

 

If or when we hit 1306.5, my stop gets moved to BE and the rest of the trade is either a gain or BE.

 

I will be adding 1 at 1300.75, 1296.75, 1293.50.

 

There will be more adds below that, but pointless at this moment to post those if I do not get the 1306.5 zen.

[MightyMouse 12]

when we get near the low, I hear the typany drums from the intro of " O Fortuna", but then they stop as we move back up.

 

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QhG-d_YnhhU]YouTube - Ysgol Glanaethwy: O Fortuna - Last Choir Standing Final - BBC One[/ame]

[MightyMouse 12]

Stop is now BE at 1322.5.

I plan to add 1 contract at 1300.75 and more below. If or when I get the add, my stop will go to 1317.

 

I may exit if a bear trap is set. At this point the exit would be about 1314.75. If I do not detect a trap, I will stay in until I get stopped out at BE.

 

Did I mention that I love trading? Hopefully, no one is trying to catch the knife.

[MightyMouse 12]

Volume is picking up a bit too. So, the move seems to be gaining good legs. With good volume on the downside it makes it less likely that this is a trap. If we do reverse the down move and it is on low volume, I will stay in until my stop is hit at 1322.50.

[MightyMouse 12]

I think we refueled with some more supply. It might be premature to say it, but a break below 1307 from here and we should have enough supply to take this to a new low for the day.

 

Bottom fishers beware.

 

The opposite is as true as the above. If we break above the 2 pt range we have developed here, those who have been selling on the inside may panic and exit which will be bad for the late shorts, mostly, but bad for all shorts including me. The 2 pt range seems to be 7.25 to 9.25. We should get some action when we get out of this range.

 

I am short and will remain short.

Edited April 12, 2011 by MightyMouse

[MightyMouse 12]

I hear "O Fortuna" again. Looks like lots of supply here to take us lower.

[MightyMouse 12]

oh well. Wrong again. I am still short, in the money and will try to ride this for what it is worth.

 

Nothing has changed. If it gets to 1300.75 I am adding.

[MightyMouse 12]

I am moving my stop to in the overnight to 1315.5. If my add were to get hit before my stop, I would move my stop to 1317 otherwise I am out at 1315.5.

 

The direction is still down. If I get stopped out, I will probably try to short again on a push down as long as we stay below about 1321. If we get above that, I am going to want to get long.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Just a quick question MM. It is after the fact though now but it shouldn't matter too much. Why would you place your stop exactly on yesterday's high? Just seems to me that the o/n trade if anything would likely target that price and probably push through a little to probe for stops. Just curious.

[MightyMouse 12]

I am moving my stop to in the overnight to 1315.5. If my add were to get hit before my stop, I would move my stop to 1317 otherwise I am out at 1315.5.

 

The direction is still down. If I get stopped out, I will probably try to short again on a push down as long as we stay below about 1321. If we get above that, I am going to want to get long.

 

Out. It was a fun ride. Took 7 points per contract on the trade.

[MightyMouse 12]

Just a quick question MM. It is after the fact though now but it shouldn't matter too much. Why would you place your stop exactly on yesterday's high? Just seems to me that the o/n trade if anything would likely target that price and probably push through a little to probe for stops. Just curious.

 

I am out because, given the conditions of supply and demand, I believe that there are too many trapped shorts from below. So, my thinking is that it can go a lot higher than this and possibly have enough demand to reverse the down move. So, I gave it 8 points plus 1 tick of room to survive and it didn't.

 

Why the high? I do not let that matter. When I need to be out, I need to be out.I gave it the max i could give it and it so happened to be the high.

 

My survival in a trade and mental survival depends on event A and event B. If A occurs I stay in. If B occurs I get out. This time B occurred first. When either happens I need to execute. Failure to execute, in the long run, leads to bad things.

I put a few coins in my pocket. It didn't work out the way I hoped, but why would my hope ever matter?

 

In spite of the fact that I am out, I still see the direction as down. At risk of reversing, but down. If it does stay below 1321 or so I will likely get back in short on a sell stop. It will all depend on how high it goes above where we are now.

 

Thanks for asking.

[TheNegotiator 13]

I personally think if there is much in the way of demand if we open above mon low 1317.00 then those trapped shorts could be in trouble(for now). Shame about the trade though as it seemed like it could be good but probably a little too early for it. With earnings just around the corner, traders are likely to want to hold off if they can for a little more time. I guess though if we fail to get back into that 1317-36 bracket and sellers start coming in, there's no reason to not expect a challenge of the 1300 area, probably before the week is out.

[MightyMouse 12]

I personally think if there is much in the way of demand if we open above mon low 1317.00 then those trapped shorts could be in trouble(for now). Shame about the trade though as it seemed like it could be good but probably a little too early for it. With earnings just around the corner, traders are likely to want to hold off if they can for a little more time. I guess though if we fail to get back into that 1317-36 bracket and sellers start coming in, there's no reason to not expect a challenge of the 1300 area, probably before the week is out.

 

More is better but some is better than none.

 

We gauge as best we can the risk of staying in a trade.

 

The way I see it:

I could get out for all the wrong reasons and it ends up being the right decision.

I could stay in for all the right reasons and it ends up being the wrong decision.

Or, obviously, I could be right for staying in or right for getting out.

 

unfortunately, I have to wait to learn which of the above it was, but the important thing is to know which it was and not that I am always right.

 

Mercy, it is the probing of the unknown that keeps us drawn to the markets like moths to a light.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Definitely. I am of course interested to see what you do next(although I'm an intraday trader only myself). Good luck!

[MightyMouse 12]

If we stay below 1321, I plan on going short with a sell stop at 1310.50. As the market moves and jockeys, I will adjust that entry or get rid of it, but will post beforehand.

 

And at this point it was a good move to get out. Nothing is worse than getting out of a short at the high tick. It stomps the ego a bit. Not that that is a bad thing, but it does feel better when it goes past your exit by at least a little bit.

[MightyMouse 12]

The plan is to buy 20.75 with a stop or sell 10.50 with a stop.

 

I will do this with less contracts than I did last Friday since I do not have a monster win to piggy back off of.

 

Initial stops are 34 ticks from entry and can change to a max of 64.

[MightyMouse 12]

The long is off the table for the time being. I will not be getting long where i previously stated. I will continue to try to get in short. It missed me, thankfully, at 10.50, but I will still take it there when or if it gets there.

[MightyMouse 12]

I love it!

 

If anyone recalls my diatribe about luck in the market on other threads, today is a perfect example.

 

Today is an example.

 

My sell stop order to get short is at 1310.50. if one more large market order came in when it was trading down at 1310.75, I would be short and about 6 pts underwater with a stop about 2 pts away. But the order did not come in and my order still sits there and I am under no heat. This is a perfect example of how luck worked in my favor. I am lucky to not have a position that is underwater. It didn't make me money, but it didn't lose me money either.

[MightyMouse 12]

Stop is at 1319. this looks like low volume and it if reverses, I will probably want out at1313.75 if we do not go lower than 1305.5, but will see.

 

Did I mention I love trading?