week 3

[Buk 10]

the graph below highlights Cable’s lone assault against the buck of late……not really too surprising, given the UK’s strong fundamental showing, & with this mornings PPI print further cementing Sterlings strong bias, traders will be eyeing Fridays all important Retail Sales data for continued uptick potential……

 

 

 

sandwiched in between those events, are some 1st Division data prints from our calendar…..the NY manufacturing guage (Empire numbers), our own manufacturing inflationary (PPI) data & the TICS : the treasuries report which measures foreign appetite for our debt/assets……..

 

Bernanke is also jawboning to the Senate Budget Committee Thurs, after our CPI numbers hit the tape, so all in all, an eventful week awaits us………

 

the Cable Bulls will surely be looking to step on the gas if any of these U.S numbers print to the weak side…..and certainly should the UK Ret Sales confirm the BOE’s decision to pre-empt inflationary concerns by hiking rates last week……..

 

once/if the Jan 3 highs @ 9750 come into view & they manage to consolidate that step, the big 2.00 Round Number tub thumpers will begin to surface yet again!!

 

 

interesting (possible) level coming into view on the franc too…..78.6 lurking ahead on the large Fib reading from the recent H-L………..

 

 

[Buk 10]

very well behaved price action so far today on the Cable.......nice Tokyo pullback, adhering to Fridays high range print & nothing to really disturb it's ascent to the pivot, where it's catching breath pre-NY........

 

some good markers below to guage the demand on any profit taking, with 9750 in it's sights to consolidate the recent (larger frame) pullback to c9260..........

 

 

 

[torero 10]

Very nice analysis. I have to read a couple of times and see the charts carefully to get understand the analysis. Very impressive stuff!

[Buk 10]

yeah, sorry for the casual references.....I'll try ensure I annotate these levels more clearly with the appropriate (higher timeframe) tags in future......

 

it's not fair to 'assume' everyone is aware of, or scrolls back thru the threads to re-read the prev chart posts, highlighting these Fib/pivot zones....which of course folks shouldn't have to do......

 

consider my wrists soundly slapped

[Buk 10]

so.....London was the bus driver today for sure! Nothing much occuring on the NY desks due in most part to the MLK holiday Stateside........

 

same old levels holding price into tonite's Asian/tomorrows London activity as the London desks disperse to the pubs!.......

 

funny how these repetative numbers keep appearing week in week out huh?

 

anyhow, we have 9587 thru 9615 focusing short term support & 9680 thru 9720 acting as short-end resistance above this 78.6 zone........to keep this mini leg intact, a pullback to c9575-80 would be a good zone in which to add to longs.....if not, watching the Asian range tomorrow for signs of stability will yield equally good risk to engage..........

 

nothing much to worry the Cable Bulls hereabouts for the time being......

 

 

[torero 10]

Not a problem. I'm slow is all. Today seems a bit slow and I'm not committed to much action. But I'm scanning around at other pairs and found this interesting formation. I'll keep a closer eye on it to for an entry. Target for small triangle almost met. I'll wait for a rally to nearest resistance level to spot my entry.

 

 

[torero 10]

Ok, ok, I know this is overkill me going all over the currency landscape just to look for a meal but hey, perfect practice makes perfect as someone used to say. Plus doesn't cost anything.

 

Here's an interesting pattern I don't get to see everyday, but the important thing is that it's converging at 2 supports, one at a major support line, and the other at bottom of the broadening pattern. I'm watching for breakout/breakdown for cues for entry. If you look carefully toward right edge, there is a small falling wedge formation. Any burst above the falling trendline would make it in play. We'll see.

 

[Buk 10]

2 other candidates to keep tabs on.........

 

1st chart the loonie, bang on an important range Fib.....with their interest rate statement hitting the tape tomorrow...........

 

2nd chart the EUR/GBP weekly chart, approaching key weekly s&r.....with a hatful of important market moving data released this week on both sides of the channel..........

 

 

 

[Buk 10]

Here's an interesting pattern I don't get to see everyday, but the important thing is that it's converging at 2 supports, one at a major support line, and the other at bottom of the broadening pattern.

 

haaa, same instrument, similar level, different perspective!

[torero 10]

It's amazing that the EURGBP has only 20-40 pip daily range. This is nice candidate to swing trade few days to few weeks don't you think?

[torero 10]

How true it is, buk, in the end the analysis that take us to the right direction is what count eh? I see tex is MIA today, busy snipering for teenies? Must be very good if she can find opportunities everyday. For me I don't see many, still hugging at my major levels for safe plays only.

[Buk 10]

yes, that european pair lends itself well to fundamental plays....as are most of the GBP crosses at the mo........

 

Anna-Maria's crew have been sniping Eur/Yen & $/yen thru their respective s&r levels this a.m (155.50 & 120.25) & turned their att'n to the Franc this afternoon off the 2450 resistance line.........

 

she doesn't trade every day torero, only when key levels come into view, then she/they bat them with size & run for cover till the next opp's line up.....

 

it would be suicide to chase sniping opp's every day - fast route to the poor house

 

lie in wait, line em up & smack em with a baseball bat LOL..............

[Buk 10]

anyhow, we have 9587 thru 9615 focusing short term support & 9680 thru 9720 acting as short-end resistance above this 78.6 zone........to keep this mini leg intact, a pullback to c9575-80 would be a good zone in which to add to longs.....if not, watching the Asian range tomorrow for signs of stability will yield equally good risk to engage..........

 

 

the levels referred to in y'days post are bracketed by todays pivot markers as the overnight action keeps this pair shouldered at the highs........

 

the 60-240m bars suggesting continuation thru y'days highs, with price reacting off the main pivot as Tokyo opened for business........

 

we have the UK CPI data printing @ 9.30 & the Stateside Empire numbers showing later @ 8.30 EST..........

 

still remains a compound buy on pullbacks/Asian break.........

 

nb: that R3 pivot resistance should read; 9779........not 9799 as annotated (typo)........

 

 

[cowpip 10]

Buk and Torero - I tip my hat to you two for providing us with some refreshing and cool chit-chat. Nice job spotting those opps, Torero. As I said before, you seem to have a keen knack at spotting them. Nicely done!

[Anna-Maria 10]

Traders will be looking for this weeks inflation & retail sales data to confirm the recent hike from the BoE though Buk, yeah?

 

I mean, if the numbers print in-line then sure, the surprise hike is justified. If they're weak & our data continues to bouy the Dollar, then Cable could experience a near-term blow off.

 

Most of this near term strength is due to the backwind Cable has attracted from recent data. The buck is holding it's own on the general stage, & not really reflected in Cables current levels?

 

Your 9750, & certainly this 78.6 level (9650-80) is the close focus fulcrum early week.

 

Will be interesting to witness the price action after 4.30 EST today. Consensus+ reading on the CPI & it's as we were so to speak. Weak output & they'll no doubt step in & cover.

[Buk 10]

yeah, absolutely agree!......valid points

 

Cable has certainly stepped out of line & diverged against it's European neighbors, & you're right, it requires positive data to keep this leg honest.....

 

it's one positive would be tepid inflation/sales output & equally insipid Stateside data....but I doubt that would encourage the more aggressive Cable Bulls to run it........

 

it's approaching an important level both on the Fundamental & technical front........we'll see huh!

 

it's the support zones below here which will signal this pairs real capacity to engage the Dollar on any near term pullback shuffle........9750 is a pretty imposing double touch resistance level.....it will need to take that level & flex it's muscle there to show it means business...........

[Anna-Maria 10]

I see tex is MIA today, busy snipering for teenies? Must be very good if she can find opportunities everyday.

 

Like Buk mentioned, I don't trade every day torero. In fact it averages out at approx 3 days per week across 3 or 4 repetative instruments on this strat, so not exactly an avalanche of scalping activity.

 

But when situations set up, I like to step in & pump it. I rarely clip against the near term trend, preferring to run with the flow on the sub hourly charts.

 

Occasionally I'll step in & fade price, especially when tentative s&r levels are in focus.

 

This area up here on Cable this morning is one such example. The 30min has printed an inverted hammer & the 1-5m combo highlighting nervous bars at this pop through yesterdays highs. We're leading into more key UK data @ 4.30 EST & the swing players have no doubt pared off up at y'days highs.

 

That only leaves the sharks & value sniffers lurking this morning, seeking a little each-way activity into the data release. The volumes on our ladder showed good red activity, hence my trigger off these small frame bars.

 

Same procedure: 70% booked, trail the remainder off a b/e cut. If prices meander down into 4.30, & the trade remains 'live' I'll assess whether to fold or hold. It represents good risk (for me anyway) & is a typical play at hesitant highs/lows.

 

 

[Anna-Maria 10]

Folded remaining stakes on the pop back up off 9650 (out @ 61).

 

Good UK news & this will spike, slipping my remaining position.

 

Not worth the risk to hold at these levels. See if anything shapes up post-release.

[torero 10]

Hi tex, nice to read your insight again. Buk is a funny guy! We got to know him chat room. I just wonder if he really walks around like a circus clown LOL.

 

thanks, buk. I enjoy hunting for profits LOL. Since this area is new to me, it's interesting to find all instruments show similar patterns.

 

I'm a bit cautious for now as there are way too many news clips coming out today. I normally follow the charts, but these volatile bars will whip me out of my positions but better to be in sidelines and waters to calm. Curious thing is these news are the cause for these patterns to be resolved... patterns hitting their targets, confirmation of patterns in play, and of course pattern failures. They end the drifting misery so we call continue trading again.

 

I believe virtually all the major currencies are being hit by news in their respective countries this week no?

[Anna-Maria 10]

Not nearly good enough! Vulnerable to the blow-off, & the lower top failure on the spike was the trigger for me.

 

Short-term support at the 650 zone, so a good area to scale out & again, run a b/e stop on remainders to check the post-data flows.

 

Looking for todays pivot as short end destination (scale a little more out) & maybe compound into the short for a visit to the S1 area.

 

Anyhow, we'll see what the traffic's like should they decide to thump it back a ways.

 

I'd prefer to see the back of 650 pretty sharpish to be honest, otherwise this could well just 'range' into the late London action.

 

 

[torero 10]

Looks like this one is not taking the resistance very well and about to coming around the bend with lower high/low on 60min. It's finally rallied to the channel to confirm the reversal? I'll be looking for the next rally to short here. Not sure how in a big way the Fed will make this week on this pair. Since this one is a bit slow, I'll widen my stop a bit to give it room to breathe.

 

 

[Anna-Maria 10]

Hi tex, nice to read your insight again. Buk is a funny guy! We got to know him chat room. I just wonder if he really walks around like a circus clown LOL.

 

I believe virtually all the major currencies are being hit by news in their respective countries this week no?

 

I guess you'd have needed to have been party to that conversation to appreciate the reasoning behind that blurb.

 

I think I better decline to comment for safety reasons

 

Yes, there's quite a bit of news out across the board this week. You certainly need to stay alert when these data prints hit the tape. They can spike & bounce price all over the board if they either disappoint or skew heavily to the + side of consensus.

[pipMonster 10]

I'm totally confused with the reaction from the UK CPI data print. I would think that with CPI being at a decade high of 3.0, the pound would have rocketed off.

 

Any ideas or explanations?

[Buk 10]

If the Bank hadn't pre-empted inflation concerns as they did last week Jack by raising rates, then today's CPI print would have spiked & run Cable up......thus confirming the Bank were either behind the curve, or really needed to step on the gas & raise at the next meeting.......

 

this was obviously one of their primary considerations when they met last week, & therefore much of the post meeting activity was "priced in"....

 

traders were already positioned for a jump in Cable & have no doubt booked some profits up here in anticipation of a reaction to this weeks data......

 

that's not to say they won't continue to buy the pullbacks, but for now (in the short-term) the fast frame players will cash in on any interim volatility........which prompted Anna's crew to bat it back this morning........

[cowpip 10]

Texxas, you continue to astound me with your ability analyze the situation so quickly and to pull the trigger so confidently! Wow... bravo!

 

I too am confounded by the news reaction this time around. But I think the preamble you and Buk provided leading up to the news answers a lot. I would have thought the big boys would have pounced on that news and drove cable well above 9710 toward 9750. If the CPI news can't push it beyond that barrier, I can't imagine what news this week could.

 

Anyhow, I took a small portion off the table tonight, but not nearly as much as I should have had I been as cat-like as you were, Texxas. Wow... way to go, girl! I just about fell out of my chair when I saw how you handled that. No wonder Buk calls you the scalping Queen (the noun that popped into my head was significantly more omnipotent than "Queen," let me tell ya)!