Comments and Forex-analytics from FBS Brokerage Company

[wynnasuju 10]

Credit Agricole and Commerzbank about AUD/USD

Tuesday, March 13, 2012 - 12:45

 

Analysts at Credit Agricole note that Australian dollar reached critical level versus the greenback. To maintain medium-term uptrend AUD/USD must close today above $1.0505 (March 7 maximum, “bullish hammer” reversal pattern). Otherwise, the sideways range may widen or Aussie will start sliding. The bank recommends buying Australian currency at the current levels stopping below $1.0505 and targeting recent highs in the $1.0800 area.

 

Strategists at Commerzbank think that AUD/USD has topped at $1.0856 on February 29 and is now going to weaken to $1.0406 (200-day MA) and $1.0382 (December maximum). Below these levels the pair will be poised down to the parity and lower. According to the bank, the outlook for Aussie will remain negative as long as it’s trading below resistance at $1.0670.

 

Chart. Daily AUD/USD

 

Credit Agricole and Commerzbank about AUD/USD // FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

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[wynnasuju 10]

Bank Sarasin: comments on franc and euro

Tuesday, March 13, 2012 - 13:45

 

Economists at Bank Sarasin are strongly convinced that the Swiss National Bank won’t raise the threshold EUR/CHF higher than 1.20 unless recession continues and deflationary threats keep looming in Switzerland. The analysts say if there was no floor set for the pair, the rate could be as low as 1.10.

 

Although the franc has strengthened since the start of the year, it has remained above the 1.20 floor, trading at 1.2057 against the euro on March 13. The bank thinks, however, that the threat of further SNB intervention will contain franc’s advance in the near future.

 

According to Bank Sarasin’s specialists, European growth is going to resume in the second quarter after the ECB liquidity injection. Perhaps, the liquidity will buy the time that is needed for a recovery, and in a long-term period EUR/USD may climb to $1.38 or $1.40. On the other hand, the economists warn that excessive liquidity always weakens the currency.

 

Bank Sarasin: comments on franc and euro // FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

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[wynnasuju 10]

Main economic & market news

Wednesday, March 14, 2012 - 06:30

 

• FOMC meeting results:

 

- benchmark rate is left unchanged near zero and it planned to be kept there through at least late 2014;

- additional easing is still an option;

- US economic outlook was upgraded from "modest" to "moderate" growth;

- however, unemployment rate is “elevated” and “significant downside risks” are still in place. Inflation outlook is “subdued.”

 

• Australian consumer confidence is down by 5% this month, while housing starts dropped in the fourth quarter by 6.9% versus 3% decline expected (q/q).

• Japanese business sentiment sharply deteriorated in the first quarter.

 

• According to The Telegraph which citing a leaked Troika report, Greek budget deficit will probably fall to 1.5% in 2012 in line with the forecasts but “current projections reveal large fiscal gaps in 2013-2014.”

 

• The Fed released US banks stress test results: 15 of 19 banks would be able to maintain capital levels above a regulatory minimum in an “extremely adverse” economic scenario. The 4 banks which wouldn’t have enough capital if economic situation worsens (13% unemployment) are Ally Financial, Suntrust, MetLife and Citigroup. Analysts at RBC Capital Markets showed that the fact that the majority of the banks succeeded in passing the test shows that US banking system is strong.

 

DJIA reached the highest level since 2007. Yields on 10-year Treasuries increased to 2.13%. Specialists at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ think US yields rise because the nation’s economy strengthens. In their view, the Federal Reserve may be forced to raise the key rate before the end of 2014, probably the next year. American currency generally strengthened.

 

Asian stocks rose, EUR/USD went a bit lower to yesterdays’a minimums in the $1.3050 area. The pair opened below 55-day MA. USD/JPY keeps rising.

 

Chart. Daily EUR/USD

 

Main economic & market news // FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

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[wynnasuju 10]

Sumitomo Mitsui: euro will rise on the 5th Elliot Wave

Wednesday, March 14, 2012 - 07:15

 

According to Sumitomo Mitsui specialists, EUR/JPY may strengthen to 112.80 by May, its highest level in more than 7 months. Strategists say it makes sense to apply the Elliot Wave Theory to analyze the current euro movements.

 

The Elliott Wave Principle, proposed by accountant Ralph Elliott in the 1930’s, is a form of technical analysis based on the theory that investor psychology moves between optimism and pessimism in natural sequences. It seeks to predict prices by dividing trends into 8 waves.

 

First wave: Jan. 16-26 (rally from 97.04 to 102.21);

Second wave: Jan. 27 - Feb.1 (decline from 102.21 to 99.25);

Third wave: Feb. 2-27 (rebound from 99.25 to 109.93);

Fourth wave: Feb. 28 - March 6 (drop from 109.93 to 105.65).

 

Sumitomo Mitsui: EUR/JPY is now in the middle of the fifth wave of the multi-month upward cycle,” which is projected to end around April. The market swings follow a predictable five-stage structure.

 

Today EUR/JPY is trading at 108.47 after having risen more than 11% over the past 2 months.

 

Chart. Daily EUR/JPY

 

Sumitomo Mitsui: euro will rise on the 5th Elliot Wave // FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

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[wynnasuju 10]

Barclays Capital lifted up USD/JPY forecast

Wednesday, March 14, 2012 - 07:15

 

Analysts at Barclays Capital increased forecasts for USD/JPY from 82 to 90 yen in 6 months and from 84 to 90 yen in a year.

 

As the reason for such revision the specialists cited Japan’s current-account decline and differences in monetary policy of the 2 nations’ central banks: the Fed’s statement showed a gradual reduction in the central bank’s dovish stance, while the Bank of Japan will likely increase monetary stimulus to achieve 1% inflation goal.

 

Chart. Weekly USD/JPY

 

Barclays Capital lifted up USD/JPY forecast // FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

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[wynnasuju 10]

Analysts: Comments on FOMC statements

Wednesday, March 14, 2012 - 08:45

 

On Tuesday FOMC decided to leave the strategic points of its monetary policy unchanged (Federal funds rate and quantitative easing program). However, additional easing is still an option. Specialists were not long in commenting the recent data.

 

Wells Fargo Securities: For more stimulus the economy had to weaken again, but FRS is still not slamming the door on more QE.

 

International Strategy and Investment Group: The FOMC’s meetings in April and June would be good opportunities for the Fed to do something if policy makers see additional stimulus as needed.

 

Capital Economics: The Fed can hardly be accused of acting as a cheerleader for the recovery. Nevertheless, the improvement in the incoming data may persuade the Fed to shelve any plans it had for additional monetary stimulus in the near term.

 

Tokyo-Mitsubishi: The Fed's direction will become clearer in late April when policymakers meet next and update their projections for economic growth, inflation, unemployment and interest rates.

 

BNP Paribas: Either the economic outlook will continue to improve, or the Fed will take action to inject more liquidity into markets.

 

Nomura: Within the next six months $500 billion operation is expected to occur, consisting of purchases of both mortgage backed securities and Treasuries. Asset purchases would be “sterilized” using reverse repos and term loans in order to appease inflation hawks.

 

Most analysts agree that growth in the current quarter and throughout the rest of the year will be slower than in last year's fourth quarter.

 

Analysts: Comments on FOMC statements // FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

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[wynnasuju 10]

Societe Generale: risks from China property market

Wednesday, March 14, 2012 - 09:30

 

Economists at Societe Generale warn that investors’ optimism for the global economic prospects is vulnerable to the signs of fragility in U.S. growth momentum or of the slowdown of Chinese property market and bank loan growth.

 

The specialists claim that in the second quarter China's property sales may contract by about 10% in weighted prices losing nearly 20% of volume. In their view, while the decline may be rapid, it will be constrained. This year will likely be the bottom for Chinese property market.

 

China’s Premier Wen Jiabao claimed today that the nation’s home prices are still are still significantly above the reasonable level. Wen underlined that China would have to maintain efforts to curb real estate speculation as the property bubble would harm the economy if it burst.

 

Property sales in the world’s fastest-growing economy fell by 20.9% in the first two months of 2012 from a year earlier as the government had introduced a series of measures including property sales taxes and lending restrictions to curb speculation.

 

Societe Generale: risks from China property market // FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

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[wynnasuju 10]

Societe Generale: comments on Swiss franc

Friday, March 16, 2012 - 06:15

 

The Swiss National Bank increased its GDP growth forecast for 2012 from 0.5% to 1%. The central bank lowered inflation forecasts for 2012-2013 to -0.6% and 0.3% respectively.

 

Analysts at Societe Generale claim that although Swiss franc is still overvalued and inflation risks are subdued, the SNB sees no reason to immediately take new initiatives to weaken the national currency.

 

The specialists underline that the bullish pressure on franc has somewhat eased due to the increased liquidity in the euro area and improved risk sentiment. However, many investors still don’t dare to sell Swiss currency. A continuation of the rally in stocks and commodities alone won’t be enough to make the market players go short on franc. As a result, the prospects of EUR/CHF will depend primarily on further actions of the SNB and the ECB.

 

Societe Generale don’t see how the European Central Bank will be able to take a less dovish approach amid the euro zone’s economic weakness caused by severe austerity measures. As a result, the analysts see now point in buying EUR/CHF anytime soon.

 

Societe Generale: comments on Swiss franc // FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

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[wynnasuju 10]

BOJ will have to ease policy because of China

Friday, March 16, 2012 - 06:45

 

The deterioration of China’s trade position may force the Bank of Japan to do more aggressive monetary easing.

 

Last month China posted trade deficit of $31.5 billion. The nation’s authorities have signaled that it might suspend its long-standing policy of allowing yuan’s gradual appreciation versus US dollar in order to boost its exports’ competitiveness or at least keep them from further shrinking.

 

As China is Japan’s largest trading partner, Japanese economy will surely be affected by weaker renminbi. As a result, the BOJ will have to take measures to keep yen sliding.

 

BOJ will have to ease policy because of China // FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

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[wynnasuju 10]

BOJ meeting minutes: inflation issue

Friday, March 16, 2012 - 07:00

 

The opinions of the Bank of Japan’s board members on further policy actions divided in February:

 

- One member proposed to lift inflation target up to 2%. Some members said that 1% CPI growth is enough as the inflation goal for the time being as the current level of

inflation is low, though added that the option of changing the target should be kept for future.

- After discussion about the appropriate terms concerning inflation, members agreed that it would be appropriate to refer to the inflation rate that is consistent with price stability sustainable over the medium to long term as “the price stability goal in the medium to long term.”

 

For more into on the BOJ monetary policy approach see the text of the central bank’s February 13-14 meeting here (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/minu_2012/g120214.pdf).

 

BOJ meeting minutes: inflation issue // FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

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[wynnasuju 10]

Morgan Stanley: trading recommendations

Friday, March 16, 2012 - 07:30

 

Analysts at Morgan Stanley suggest 2 types of trade:

 

- set limit buy order for USD/JPY at 81.80 targeting 95.00 and stopping at 76.00.

- set limit sell order for AUD/CAD at 1.0550 targeting 0.9600 and stopping at 1.0780.

 

The specialists claim that yield differential between the United States and Japan widened due to better US economic data and less dovish than expected comments of the Federal Reserve. Japanese investors are actively investing to America and in March their US investments may increase even more.

 

Morgan Stanley: trading recommendations // FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

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[wynnasuju 10]

US dollar slid from the recent highs

Friday, March 16, 2012 - 08:00

 

The greenback fell against the other major currencies like the euro, yen and Swiss franc after being on the rise last week. However, analysts believe that the dollar’s drop was a typical case of correction following big gains.

 

Regardless the yesterday’s EUR/USD rise, the euro is unlikely to show a sustainable growth in a long term due to the economic uncertainty in European area and the U.S. robust growth.

 

USD/JPY yesterday also edged down. According to Tokyo Mitsubishi, it’s just a tiny correction in the uptrend. Analysts expect the U.S. grow quicker than Japan in the coming quarters. Bank of Japan, as distinguished from the Fed, continues to loosen its monetary policy aiming at the weakening of the yen.

 

Swiss franc yesterday strengthened to the dollar due to SNB’s announcement to keep the Libor rate unchanged in a 0.00-0.25% range and to maintain floor for EUR/CHF at 1.20.

 

Against the backdrop of improving U.S. economics the dollar’s decline doesn’t raise any serious concerns. According to economists, inflation is close to a 2% target level and there is unlikely to be a further quantitative easing. Data released on Thursday showed the number of Americans claiming new jobless benefits fell to a four-year low last week and manufacturing activity in the Northeast picked up this month.

 

FX Solutions: Consolidation could last another couple of days, but if economic reports continue to be positive, the dollar should once again resume its climb.

 

BNP Paribas: With the major U.S. equity indices going out at their highest levels for 10 years (Nasdaq), or since mid-2008 (S&P 500), and no sign that U.S. Treasury yields are about to swoon, we look for further dollar advances one side or the other of the weekend.

 

Chart. Daily EUR/USD

 

US dollar slid from the recent highs // FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

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[wynnasuju 10]

Eurostat: recession starts to spread over Europe

Friday, March 16, 2012 - 08:15

 

Data released this month by Eurostat showed that about a third part of euro zone nations have already entered recession in the final 3 months of 2011 (defined as GDP contraction during 2 consecutive quarters).

 

Economy declined for the second quarter in row in Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium and Slovenia. Greece’s economy is declining for already 4 years (down by 0.2% in 2008, by 3.3% in 2009, by 3.5% in 2010 and by 6-7% in 2010, according to the estimates). Portugal is deep in recession as well.

 

In addition, in Q4 we’ve seen the first GDP contraction in Sapin, Germany, Austria, and Estonia and in non-euro Sweden and the UK. Some of these economies may fail to return to growth in Q1.

 

GDP decreased by 0.3% in both the euro area (EA17) and the EU27 during the fourth quarter of 2011 (q/q). In the third quarter of 2011, growth rates were +0.1% in the euro area and +0.3% in the EU27.

 

Source: Eurostat

 

Eurostat: recession starts to spread over Europe // FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

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[wynnasuju 10]

BBH: where to get trading hints from?

Friday, March 16, 2012 - 10:15

 

Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman underline that one can no longer rely on the changes in risk appetite while trying to forecast currency moves. For instance, USD/JPY had a 0.42 correlation with the S&P 500 in January, while now this index switched to -0.11. The greenback used to fall on rising stocks, but so far it has been rising with equities and Treasury yields.

 

As a result, the analysis of market’s sentiment has lost its relevance for trading. The specialists say that they are “shifting toward the more fundamental outlook for growth.”

 

So, BBH recommends forex traders to watch:

- Bond markets (the steepness of Treasury yield curve). The specialists claim that a “sharp rise in the 10-year yield is indicative of improvement in the U.S. economy and perhaps the outlook for Fed policy” that means lower odds of more QE and stronger US dollar.

- 2-year yield spreads between U.S. and Germany and U.S. and Japan for hints about the dynamics of EUR/USD and USD/JPY.\

 

BBH: where to get trading hints from? // FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

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[wynnasuju 10]

Crude Oil prices: outlook

Friday, March 16, 2012 - 11:00

 

On Thursday crude prices dipped after a report that Barack Obama sounded commitment to release oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the nation's emergency oil stockpile. U.S. reminded traders that governments stand ready to cope with any supply disruptions. The White House later denied the information and said no deal was in place for a release from the reserve.

 

Straight after the data WTI for April delivery decreased to $105.11 a barrel on the Nymex; in the meanwhile Brent crude dropped to $123.55 a barrel on the ICE.

 

Before the report oil prices had been demonstrating a consecutive upward trend since February. Light Sweet reached a six-month high ($109.5 a barrel) at the end of February. Brent crude peaked in mid-March ($126.7 a barrel).

 

However, a wide range of factors will be pushing crude prices up in the longer term. Firstly, tensions in the Middle East increased due to the fears of an escalation of the Iranian nuclear issue. As OPEC's second largest exporter of crude oil, Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important sea transport line of crude oil. Israeli-American military invasion could cause a shutdown of transportation links.

 

Secondly, the rise of the euro due to progress made in resolving Greece's debt crisis coupled with the falling dollar promoted investment in crude oil futures, thus lifting prices.

 

Moreover, oil prices were boosted by positive economic figures from the U.S.

 

Nomura: Oil may have overtaken the euro zone as financial markets’ primary source of concern. Iran’s nuclear program is increasing chances of an Israeli military strike. However, an early Israeli election as well as the US presidential outcome could postpone the attack for another year.

 

UBS: The Arab awakening and non-Opec shortfalls in 2011 support the supply-side case, and coupled with threats in the Strait of Hormuz, we see continued strength in oil prices next year.

 

Bayerische Landesbank: Brent crude could rise to $127 a barrel; oil investment certainly looks like a good investment these days.

 

Goldman Sachs: Brent crude could rise as high as $127.50 in 2012 and $135 in 2013.

 

Vitol: It’s unlikely but possible that oil may rocket to $150 in 2012 due to growing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

 

Mirae Asset Management: A period of warmer weather in Europe would reduce demand and pull the prices below $120 if Iran doesn't flare up.

 

Crude Oil prices: outlook // FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

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[wynnasuju 10]

The week ahead: events to watch

Monday, April 9, 2012 - 06:00

 

 

Monday:

 

• New Zealand, Australia, Germany, France, Switzerland, Italy and Great Britain: Bank holidays (Easter).
  
• Ben Bernanke speaks (11:15 p.m. GMT) in Stone Mountain. The Fed’s Chairman will likely mention the unexpectedly weak NFP (payrolls added only 120K in March vs. the expected increase of 207K).
  

 

Tuesday:

 

• Japan: The release of monetary policy statement and overnight call rate is scheduled. At a policy-setting meeting the BOJ is supposed to refrain from further quantitative easing steps due to weak yen and signs of improving economic conditions, although policymakers could take action at the following meeting on April 27. With interest rate expected to stay near zero, the BOJ doesn’t possess a remarkable liberty of action.
  
• China: Trade balance in March is likely to be less terrifying than in February: analysts forecast the trade deficit to decline from 31.5 billion to 3.0 billion. Investors have become increasingly nervous about China's depressed economy in recent sessions.
  
• Greek T-bill auction.
  

 

Wednesday:

 

• Italian T-bill auction.

 

Thursday:

 

• Australia: Labor market data should be widely watched. The unemployment rate in March is forecasted to increase slightly from 5.2% to 5.3%. Number of employed people may increase by 6,700 versus February’s 15,400 contraction. Weak February figures may mean that strong Aussie burdens the Australian economy and that the RBA may decide to cut rates in the coming months.
  
• U.S.: PPI growth accelerated from 0.1% in January to 0.4% in February. In March American producer prices are seen gaining 0.3%. The PPI is climbing more than the Fed anticipated, though the central bank claims that the rise in energy prices is only temporary. Higher prices diminish the chances for additional QE. Trade deficit in March may contract from $52.6 billion to $51.9 billion. However, according to TD Economics, rising energy prices will continue to widen the trade deficit in February; analysts expect the deficit to rise to $53 billion, the maximum since October 2008. A slight decrease in a weekly number of unemployment claims is forecasted (355,000 versus previous 357,000 – a 4-year minimum posted last week). However, broader outlook on the U.S. labor market in 2012 remains cloudy.
  
• Italian bond (BTP) auction.
  

 

Friday:

 

• China: Economy is expected to contract in the first quarter: GDP may decline to 8.4% from 8.9% in the last quarter 2011. Strategists at Barclays Capital warn that the Aussie and other commodity currencies could be weighed down until it is clear the China’s slowdown has bottomed out.
  
• U.S.: Consumer Price Index is forecasted to rise to 0.2% in March versus 0.1% in February. TD Economics analysts expect the downward trajectory in annual CPI (drop to 2.5% y/y from 2.9% y/y in February) regardless of the surge in energy prices.
  
• Ben Bernanke speaks (5:00 p.m. GMT). There may be a surge of volatility on the Chairman’s comments.
  

 

The week ahead: events to watch // FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

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[wynnasuju 10]

Mizuho: short-term bearish on USD/JPY

Monday, April 9, 2012 - 07:15

 

Analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank believe that the greenback may drift lower versus Japanese yen sliding to 80.00 in the next 2 weeks.

 

“When we look at the amount of short positions in the yen, we see that they really have not decreased. Their volume is large. At some point, these positions will be closed, leading to an increase in the yen. Employment data can serve as an impetus for this,” say the specialists.

 

Chart. Daily USD/JPY

 

Mizuho: short-term bearish on USD/JPY // FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

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[wynnasuju 10]

Ifr Markets: option expiration for today

Monday, April 9, 2012 - 07:45

 

Analysts at Ifr Markets, key analytical data provider, claim that today the following options expire:

 

EUR/USD: $1.3400, $1.3225, $1.3300, $1.3500, $1.3315.

USD/JPY: 82.25, 84.00 83.15, 83.00.

EUR/JPY: 108.00.

AUD/JPY: 83.75.

AUD/USD: $1.0200, $1.0300.

 

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT).

 

Photo REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton

 

Ifr Markets: option expiration for today // FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

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[wynnasuju 10]

CFTC trader positioning data

Monday, April 9, 2012 - 08:00

 

The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), showed that:

 

• The net short euro position dropped to 79.5k contracts, the smallest such net position since late November 2011. Long positions increased 5.8k contracts, while shorts shrank by 3.8k contracts.
  
• The net short yen position declined to 65.1k contracts from 67.6k. Longs rose by 3.7k, whereas shorts rose by 1.1k contracts.
  
• The net short pound position went down to 8.8k contracts from 11.1k. Both longs and shorts increased (2.7k and 380 contracts respectively).
  
• Swiss franc net shorts decreased to 14.7k from 15.1k contracts. Longs grew by 322 contracts and shorts were pared by almost 100 contracts.
  

 

 

It’s necessary to note that the figures cited above are always a week old at the time of their release. Never the less, CFTC data gives a good oversight into how the market is positioned and if/how these positions are being unwound. Although the CME speculators represent a small fraction of trading in the currency markets, their trades are widely seen as typical of hedge fund investors' currency movements.

 

CFTC trader positioning data // FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

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[wynnasuju 10]

USD/JPY down on U.S. jobs figures

Monday, April 9, 2012 - 08:15

 

The greenback touched a one-month low versus the yen on Monday on the back of last week's lower-than-expected U.S. labor market figures. Investors are worried that the Fed may need more monetary stimulus to support the economy.

 

In March non-farm payrolls rose by 120K versus 240K in February and far lower-than-forecasted 207K, demonstrating the smallest increase since October. The unemployment rate decreased slightly to 8.2% from 8.3%.

 

Commonwealth Foreign Exchange: The question for the dollar is whether this is as viewed as an outlier in an otherwise improving trend in labor markets, or if it's viewed as enough to revive talk of another round of QE. At the very least it will keep the door open to additional policy easing, more so than before the number was released.

 

Japan, however, showed the first current account surplus in two months in February (1.178 trillion yen, down 30.7% from a year earlier, but stronger, than forecasted). Exports stopped contracting thanks to robust demand in the U.S. and Southeast Asia.

 

Early Monday the USD/JPY dropped as low as 81.19 yen on its lowest level since the beginning of March. The support for the dollar lies at 81.07 yen (a 38.2% retracement of its rally in Feb.-March), 80.59 yen (March 6 minimum), 80.25 yen (Feb.29 minimum) and 80.01 yen (Feb.28 minimum). The resistance levels for the pair are 82.56 yen (Apr.6 maximum), 82.88 yen (21-day MA) and the 82.99 (Apr.3 maximum).

 

Chart. Daily USD/JPY

 

USD/JPY down on U.S. jobs figures // FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

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[wynnasuju 10]

Saxo Bank: comments on euro, yen and franc

Monday, April 9, 2012 - 08:30

 

Analysts at Saxo Bank in London note that as the market’s focus shifts to Spain, the European Central Bank will face a lot of difficulties in the coming months.

 

The specialists claim that for now the ECB did well to contain spikes in peripheral sovereign yields through its long-term refinancing operations (LTROs) in December 2011 and February this year. However, Saxo Bank warns that if the concerns about Spain keep mounting, it will be very hard for the ECB to calm the market alone: more political co-ordination will be needed.

 

According to Saxo, French elections and new leadership will drive EUR/USD up, though the pair won’t be able to rise above $1.35/1.36, so a reversal downwards in this area’s expected.

 

As for Japanese yen, the analysts say that yen’s decline “in the next few months, this yen move will be overshot, and we will see a bit of a consolidation in these carry trades, which will mean the yen consolidates robustly against several of these currencies.”

 

Speaking about Swiss franc’s prospects, the economists say that the Swiss National bank is unlikely to raise EUR/CHF floor from 1.20 until the third quarter or even later.

 

Chart. Daily EUR/USD

 

Saxo Bank: comments on euro, yen and franc // FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

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[wynnasuju 10]

Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. GBP/USD

Monday, April 9, 2012 - 09:15

Weekly GBP/USD

 

British pound tested the levels above the Ichimoku Cloud last week, but then drifted lower and closed below Kumo.

 

At the same time, the pair managed to find support at Tenkan-sen (1), so the bulls haven’t lost all chances to turn the situation in the short term to their benefit. The pair also has some support of the uptrend line connecting January and March minimums.

 

However, the Turning line stopped moving up and switched to the horizontal mode following Kijun-sen (2) and pointing at sideways trend. Kumo isn’t wide, but still bearish (3).

 

We are looking forward to consolidation in the coming weeks. The ability of the bulls to bring the prices above the Cloud will be decisive for the future dynamics of GBP/USD.

 

Chart. Weekly GBP/USD

 

Daily GBP/USD

 

On the daily chart the prices breached the Turning line (1), but were supported by the Standard line (2) and the upper border of the rising Ichimoku Cloud.

 

On the one hand, the situation looks stable: Tenkan and Kijun have so far formed “golden cross” which should be strong enough as the lines intersected above Kumo.

 

On the other hand, Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen became horizontal and the Cloud has dangerously narrowed.

 

On the downside, if GBP/USD breaches support of the Kijun and enters the Cloud, it will likely slide to the bottom of Kumo. On the upside, if after a few days of consolidation sterling manages to rise above Tenkan, it will get chance to strengthen to the maximums of the early April.

 

Chart. Daily GBP/USD

 

Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. GBP/USD // FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

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[wynnasuju 10]

US yields’ advance is likely to slow down

Monday, April 9, 2012 - 13:00

 

So far there was a lot of talk about rising US Treasury yields which helped to push USD/JPY up and breach its long-term downtrend. Is this really a reversal of the 30-year bullish market characterized by increasing bond prices and declining yields and the demand for treasuries will start declining? Not likely.

 

Reasons of high demand for Treasuries:

 

1) Reduction of supply: data from CRT Capital Group LLC shows that the net amount of Treasuries available will decline by 30% once proceeds from maturing securities are reinvested and fall by an average of $99.4 billion of investable cash a month. Average maturity of government debt has risen from 49.4 months in last quarter of 2008 to 62.8 months with the help of Operation Twist (shorter maturities in the Fed’s holdings are replaced with longer-term debt to cap longer-term rates), while the amount of American debt increased by $4 trillion.

 

2) Treasuries remain the safe haven #1 with few alternatives as the global economic prospects remain uncertain and there are severe problems looming over particular regions, such as the euro area. Investors see the improvement of US economy, but the majority agrees that it’s too early to be entirely optimistic.

 

3) The banks need to add safe assets to meet new reserve rules under the Dodd-Frank financial-overhaul law and Basel III regulations. US commercial lenders have already bought the same amount of Treasuries as in the while 2011.

 

4) Corporations have record cash on hand which they put in Treasuries seeking fixed income as they fear that the market may get shaken once more.

 

High demand means lower yields. Although 10-year US yields rose from 1.88% at the end of 2011 to about 2.4% in March, consensus forecast didn’t chance since January – it still shows the yields will finish 2012 at 2.49%. This means that investors aren’t ready to trim their Treasury holdings. Buyers bid $3.19 for each dollar of the $538 billion in notes and bonds sold this year – the highest demand since 1992 when such data became available. The only obstacle which may slow the rate of Treasuries purchases is rising inflation.

 

Photo by Reuters

 

US yields

 

 

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EUR/USD: prospects remain unclear

Monday, April 9, 2012 - 14:15

 

On Monday, April 9, activity on the European markets remains weak due to Easter holidays in Germany, France, Switzerland, Italy and Great Britain. Given the rising Spanish bonds yield and increasing uncertainty about the country’s prospects, the future of the euro doesn't look bright.

 

On the other hand, data on U.S. labor market, released on Friday, also seems to be negative (non-farm payrolls rose by 120K versus the expected 207K). However, most analysts believe the U.S. labor market data won’t have a significant effect on the market.

 

BNP Paribas: The NFP data are quite comforting, since the cuts that occurred in March are very likely to be reversed afterwards.

 

SunbirdFX: The euro may strengthen from the $1.300 strong support level to $1.315 or break the Head & Shoulders pattern lying above the support and slide to $1.280.

 

Chart. Daily EUR/USD

 

EUR/USD: prospects remain unclear // FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

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US and Asian sessions briefly

Tuesday, April 10, 2012 - 06:30

 

US:

 

The Fed’s Chairman Ben Bernanke didn’t mention monetary policy in his speech, though noted that American economy is far from a complete recovery which was taken by the market as an argument for further easing. As a result, the greenback weakened versus the majority of its counterparts.

 

Speeches are also scheduled for Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart and Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota.

 

Asia:

 

Bank of Japan’s meeting: rates unchanged at 0.1%, no new easing measures announced.

Although such decision was in line with the forecasts, USD/JPY fell by about 25 pips after the announcement from Asian session high at 81.86 yen.

 

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities, Mizuho Securities and SMBC Nikko: the BOJ will expand asset purchases when it next meets on April 27.

 

China: trade balance +$5.3 billion; imports +5.3% (y/y), exports +8.9% (y/y).

Australia: NAB business confidence rose, job advertisements +1% (m/m).

Stock markets show mixed performance.

 

Chart. Daily USD/JPY

 

US and Asian sessions briefly // FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

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