Comments and Forex-analytics from FBS Brokerage Company

[FBS_Official 10]

UBS: comments on AUD/USD

 

Aussie managed to recover versus its US counterpart so far rising from the levels in the 1.5000 region to the 1.0680 zone.

 

Analysts at UBS claim that as long as Australian dollar is trading below resistance in the 1.0717 area the outlook for the pair AUD/USD will remain negative. The specialists say that on the downside the target levels for Australia’s currency are found at 1.0505 and 1.0443.

[FBS_Official 10]

Credit Agricole: market’s sentiment for EUR/USD has worsened

 

Currency strategists at Credit Agricole note that the market’s sentiment about the pair EUR/USD has significantly changed in the unfavorable for euro direction.

 

The specialists note that the dynamics of the single currency versus the greenback for a long time was determined solely by the interest rate differential between the euro area and the United States. However, the focus has so far once again switched to the European debt crisis.

 

Analysts also remind that the Federal Reserve’s second round of quantitative easing will soon be over. It’s clear from the last FOMC meeting minutes that US monetary authorities have already begun thinking about the best exit strategy they can employ. As a result, the bank believes that dollar will get support on this point.

 

According to Credit Agricole, euro will stay under negative pressure unless it returns to the levels above 1.4520. For the European currency to return to the recent maximums some large bids or positive events are needed.

[FBS_Official 10]

EUR/CHF hit the record minimum

 

The single currency fell today to the record minimum trading versus Swiss franc at 1.2346. Euro slumped due to the concerns about the euro area’s debt crisis as Spain’s leading Socialist party suffered its worst electoral defeat in more than 30 years.

 

In Spain the ruling Socialists got only 28% of the votes, while the opposition People’s Party won 38%. Spanish population seems very dissatisfied with soaring unemployment and spending cuts. At the same time in Germany Chancellor Angela Merkel’s party slumped to third place in a state election in Bremen as many people disapprove the bailout policy.

 

In addition, Standard & Poor’s warned on May 20 about the potential Italy’s downgrade, while Fitch Ratings lowered Greece’s long-term debt ranking to B+ that is 4 steps below the investment grade.

 

So, there is plenty of euro-negative news. Technical analysts at Commerzbank think that the pair EUR/CHF will drop to 1.2313, the base of 2-month downtrend channel.

[FBS_Official 10]

Reuters poll: how the market will behave after the end of QE2?

 

As the end of the Fed’s QE2 planned in June approaches, the markets are speculation on how it will influence the future dynamics of US dollar. It’s necessary to note that the QE2 has an enormous psychological meaning seen as the sing of the Fed’s commitment to support the economy.

 

Reuters’ poll of 64 analysts and fund managers shows that investors expect stocks, bonds, gold and euro to fall in 3 months after the Federal Reserve's $600-bilion bond buying program expires in June. Investors fear that when the Fed stops supporting the market, investments that have been profitable for the last 9 months will plummet undermining the confidence in the nation’s economic recovery.

 

40 respondents believe that the end of quantitative easing will send up 10-year Treasury yields. 36 of surveyed experts claim that the markets ware to become more volatile. 38 participants think that US dollar will rise versus euro. At least half of the respondents expect oil and gold prices to fall further in the third quarter. Nearly half of participants also expect US and emerging markets stocks to fall (Standard & Poor's 500 index and the MSCI Emerging Market stock index). According to the median forecast from 59 economists, the probability of a third round of quantitative easing is estimated only by 10%.

[FBS_Official 10]

Commerzbank: comments on EUR/USD

 

The single currency didn’t manage to overcome resistance in the 1.4345 area on Friday slumping today on the concerns about the European debt crisis. Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that the trend on the weekly chart has reversed. In their view, euro will keep declining.

 

The specialists think that if the pair EUR/USD breaks down through the 200-week MA at 1.4000, it will be poised down to 1.3770 on its way towards 1.3463/1.3390 (55-week MA and the 11-month support line).

 

According to Commerzbank, on the upside the pair’s advance will be limited by 1.4340/46 and 1.4425/65.

[FBS_Official 10]

The market’ risk appetite is declining

 

Demand for best-performing currencies of 2011 such as Australian dollar and Norwegian krone is declining ahead of the end of the Fed’s QE2 in June on the back of the global economy showdown.

 

According to Barclays, world’s economy will add 4.1% this year after 4.9% growth in 2010. Morgan Stanley looks forward to 4.2% figure.

 

One also shouldn’t forget the recession in Japan and the euro area’s debt woes that affect investors' risk sentiment. John Taylor, the head of the world’s largest currency-hedge fund FX Concepts, says that the rally of the risk appetite that began in the first half of 2009 is now coming to an end.

 

Specialists at UBS note that the carry trade strategy led in May to 1.52% loss. Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index of 24 commodities has erased this month its entire advance since the middle of March, while the MSCI World Index of stocks dropped by 3.37%.

 

In these circumstances investors are buying the greenback that rose versus all of its 16 main counterparts in May. Standard Life Investments think US currency is quite likely to keep climbing. However, it’s necessary to be cautious with dollar as its strengthening may be limited because the Federal Reserve will likely keep the interest rates at the record minimum.

[FBS_Official 10]

Mizuho: Swiss franc will renew highs versus US dollar

 

Technical analysts at Mizuho Securities claim that Swiss franc may rise to the record high trading versus the greenback.

 

In their view, the pair USD/CHF is in the clear downtrend. US dollar was constrained by the resistance line connecting maximums of February 11, April 1 and May 16. On May 4 American currency hit the all-time minimum of 0.8552.

 

The specialists underline that the pair has been staying below the bearish Ichimoku Cloud since February 17. According to Mizuho, USD/CHF is moving down to 0.85 or 0.80.

 

[FBS_Official 10]

UBS: SNB won’t raise rates in the near future

 

Currency strategists at UBS claim that the Swiss National Bank won’t lift up interest rates as long as the national currency is very strong versus euro.

 

As a result, the specialists think that franc’s appreciation to the record highs against the single currency is only temporary. In their view, the European Central Bank as opposed to the SNB will continue tightening monetary policy this year when the situation at the peripheral euro zone bond markets stabilizes.

 

As for the near term, uncertainty about the future of Greece and other indebted European nations will keep the pair EUR/CHF under negative pressure, believes UBS.

[FBS_Official 10]

Aussie rebounds though uncertainty is still high

 

Australian dollar managed to recover after yesterday’s slump versus its American counterpart. Aussie was helped by the advance of commodities that account for the major part of Australia’s exports: copper gained 1% in London and oil increased by 0.6% in New York. The market was also influenced by the comments from Goldman Sachs: the analysts expect oil, copper and zinc prices to go up.

 

However, specialists at Chuo Mitsui Trust & Banking warn that the market will keep being very unstable. The euro zone’s debt woes are going to remain in the center of investors’ attention. In their view, commodity currencies will decline versus safe havens such as US dollar and Japanese yen.

 

The pair AUD/USD is up in the 1.0560 area after sliding from Friday’s maximum at 1.0710 to Monday’s minimum of 1.0478.

[FBS_Official 10]

Commerzbank: negative outlook for GBP/USD

 

British pound went down from 1.6300 getting yesterday below 1-year uptrend line at 1.6096/78. Then the pair GBP/USD managed to find support at the 50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6054.

 

Technical analysts at Commerzbank, however, think that sterling’s recovery won’t last long. In their view, the pair won’t be able to overcome 1.6236. The specialists expect British currency to drop under 1.6000 towards 1.5935 and the 55-week MA at 1.5700.

[FBS_Official 10]

Analysts’ comments on Italian debt

 

Standard & Poor’s has changed the outlook for Italian debt to negative. As Italy is the euro area’s third largest economy, the analysts certainly can’t remain ignorant to such move of the rating agency trying to estimate the danger of the nation’s contagion with the debt crisis.

 

Economists at Brown Brothers Harman claim that although they expect the credit rating of peripheral euro zone states to undergo further downgrades this year, the specialists don’t see enough grounds for S&P to cut the estimate of Italian debt. The economists underlined that Italy’s debt figures remained high but stable during the latest crisis, while the debts of other European nation surged. According to BBH, there’s the risk of downgrades of Belgium and France.

 

Analysts at Societe Generale sound more pessimistic as they speak about the possibilities of default. In their view, while Greece, Ireland and Portugal may default in the short term, Italy and Spain are for now out of such risk. The bank points out that unless market conditions improve, the situation in the euro area could get even worse.

[FBS_Official 10]

Commerzbank: forecast on EUR/CHF and SNB rate

 

Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that the outlook for the European currency versus Swiss franc is either neutral or negative. In their view, the advance of the pair EUR/CHF will be limited by resistance 1.2485 and 1.2661.

 

The specialists expect euro to fall to 1.2280 in the near term. As for the longer time period, the bank says that if the single currency breaks below this level will bring sterling down to the 1.2015 level that represents the base of the 4-year down channel and a psychological support level.

 

According to Commerzbank, the Swiss National Bank won’t intervene at the currency market to stop the appreciation of the national currency versus euro. If the EUR/CHF drops more or hovers at the current levels, the SNB will hold the borrowing costs at the record minimum until September. The strategists underline that the goal of the last SNB’s intervention was to eliminate rising deflation risks and now there are no such. On the contrary, Switzerland’s central bank may lift up inflation forecasts at its meeting in June, notes Commerzbank.

[FBS_Official 10]

Nomura: buy loonie versus yen

 

Analysts at Nomura Holdings advise investors to buy Canadian dollar versus yen as they expect that the Bank of Canada will raise the borrowing costs from 1% to 1.75% by the year-end, while Japan’s central bank will keep interest rates at the record low as Japanese economy is in a recession after March 11 earthquake. In addition, the specialists think that the Asian nation’s trade surplus is going to narrow.

 

The pair CAD/JPY has already gained 3.1% this year. It returned to the levels in the 83.78 area after hitting 6-week minimum of 82.32 yen on May 5.

 

According to Nomura, it’s necessary to buy loonie at 83.65 yen, stopping at 82 and taking profit between 87 and 88.

 

The next meeting of Canada’s central bank will take place on May 31.

[FBS_Official 10]

Commerzbank: comments on EUR/USD

 

Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that the pair EUR/USD is finding support ahead of its 200-day MA at $1.40 and the Cloud base at 1.3975.

 

The specialists regard the current dynamics of the single currency as consolidation. All the attempts of the bulls to move higher were limited by the downtrend resistance line from May 5 maximum at 1.4195 and 1.4305/45.

 

In their view, euro is poised sown to the 1.3770 level representing 38.2% retracement of the advance in 2010-2011.

[FBS_Official 10]

Morgan Stanley: default and restructuring in Greece are unlikely

 

Last week Fitch Ratings cut Greece's rating from BB+ to B+, 4 levels below investment grade.

 

Strategists at Morgan Stanley think that an outright default or restructuring of Greece’s debt is won’t happen this year. Although the specialists aren’t ruling out the potential “reprofiling” of the Greek debt – new term first used by Jean-Claude Junker on May 17 that means the extension on Greek bonds’ maturities. However, such outcome also seems to be unlikely, says Morgan Stanley. Analysts at Credit Suisse think that the European authorities won’t let Greece restructure its debt in the near term as no one wants to risk having another shock like that created by the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008.

 

According to Morgan Stanley, what’s happening in Greece depends on political decisions, not just economic ones. Angela Merkel said last week that the restructuring is out of the question. However, the European authorities are not yet ready to make distinct steps to resolve the region’s problems.

 

MS believes that some of the uncertainty seen so far is going to dissipate. The specialists think that euro may appreciate during a month from now. They advise investors to be cautious but ready to establish long euro positions again as dollar may be affected by the weak US economic data. As for the United States, the interest rates are not going anywhere until there is either strong inflation or strong growth numbers that one certainly can’t expect to see during the next few weeks.

[FBS_Official 10]

Fund managers expect US dollar to decline

 

Even though US currency added 4% since the end of April the world’s best bond fund managers share the negative outlook for the greenback.

 

Analysts at Pimco expect USD to weaken versus range of currencies in emerging markets and selected developed countries such as Australia and Norway. Strategists at OppenheimerFunds note that the long-term economic fundamentals for dollar still look very bad.

 

All in all, the specialists say that though US dollar may rise occasionally, investors will leave the United States for the next several years attracted by faster economic growth, higher interest rates and healthier government finances to other markets. American currency is thought to remain under pressure as the Fed might keep the interest rates at the record minimum for an extended period of time.

 

The greenback declined by 12% versus the basket of currencies during the past year reaching 3-year minimum on April 29.

 

It’s necessary to mention, however, that some analysts point out that there has become too many dollar bears. For instance, John Taylor, the head of world’s largest currency-hedge fund FX Concepts, however, thinks that the advance of higher-yielding assets will finish in July.

[FBS_Official 10]

UBS: 3 reasons why US dollar downtrend will end

 

Currency strategists at UBS think that the major bearish trend for US dollar will soon be over. In their view, there are several reasons for US currency to strengthen.

 

Firstly, the specialists expect the recovery of American economy to continue in the second half of the year.

 

Then the end of the Federal Reserve second round of quantitative easing in June will provide a lot of fresh air for the greenback that has been under the pressure of the Fed’s $600 billion bond purchasing program during the last 12 months.

 

Finally, dollar will be supported as euro will be under weight of the debt crisis in the region and the uncertainty created by the inability of the European authorities to come up with some decisive steps.

 

UBS analysts think that the pair EUR/USD will fall from the current 1.40/1.50 range to the 1.30/1.40 range in the second half of the year.

[FBS_Official 10]

Lloyds: Greek debt has to be restructured

 

Economists at Lloyds TSB Corporate Markets note that to get the EU support Greek authorities promised last year to do fiscal tightening, but they haven’t done it. So, the country’s officials are once again promising to reduce the budget. The question is, given the increasing opposition to the cuts from Greece’s population, if the government is able to push through the austerity measures.

 

The analysts say that Greece doesn’t grow fast enough to generate the tax revenues. As the country needs money there certainly has to be some restructuring – it doesn’t have to be the outright default, though it depends on how you define the notion of “default”. Rating agencies, for instance, say that any sort of “reprofiling” means default, notes Lloyds. The specialists think that in the long run restructuring will help both Greece and euro zone. According to the bank, the quicker the proper mechanism is put in place, the better.

 

The current crisis in Europe is not a matter of confidence to the EMU as some might think, but the problem of relatively small economies, think the strategists. But as these countries still can’t meet their payments unless the debt is written off, the debt restructuring will actually ease the pressure on euro and reduce contagion effects.

 

According to Lloyds, the world’s economy is quite healthy at the moment and if to conduct reforms in the euro area, it’s time to do that now. The European policymakers need to be willing to act toughly dealing with the crisis in 3 countries in particular – Greece, Portugal and Ireland.

[FBS_Official 10]

Ferguson: political tensions in the euro area will escalate

 

Naill Ferguson, a history professor at Harvard University, said in his interview to Bloomberg TV that the euro zone has become a kind of government-killing machine: those policymakers who have been in charge during the financial crisis are now being punished. This applies not only to the policymakers of the periphery known as PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain), but also to the core, particularly, Germany. In his view, this process is going to continue and this is a very troubling situation with the implications for the whole global economy.

 

The professor recalls the experience of the Latin Monetary Union in the late 19th century that died a slow death mainly because of Italian deficits. Ferguson has also expected that it would be Italy to drive the euro zone off the cliff. The Problems have actually begun in Greece, Ireland and Portugal threatening to spread to Spain. Now, however, Italy is in the frame, so the economists say that it’s necessary to talk not about PIGS but about PIIGS in order to make room for Italy alongside Ireland.

 

As the political situation deteriorates, there will be more of True Finn type parties in the core and the North that urge to stop bailing out South and West, while in the periphery people will keep complaining about the masochistic austerity measures which these countries are conducting.

 

According to Ferguson, the dangerous idea of leaving the euro zone is starting to be regarded as politically credible one and the tensions in the region will escalate.

[FBS_Official 10]

China will be possibly buying EFSF bonds

 

The single currency made today the biggest advance versus US dollar this month – the pair EUR/USD gained 0.7% rising from $1.4068 to $1.4195.

 

Euro was encouraged by the expectations that China will increase purchases of European bonds that helped to weaken concerns about the crisis.

 

European Financial Stability Facility CEO Klaus Regling claimed yesterday that Asian investors, including China, may buy Portuguese bailout bonds when the EFSF sells them in June.

 

China that is the world’s biggest holder of foreign exchange reserves and the largest overseas investor in US debt with holdings (according to Treasury May data, China holds $1.145 trillion) seems willing to diversify its reserves moving away from US dollar.

 

Analysts at Westpac claim that China’s interest is positive for euro in the short term. However, the specialists warn that the potential restructuring of Greek debt will prevent euro from rising in the longer-term.

 

Economists at Rabobank regard Regling’s statement not as the vote of confidence in the periphery, but as the pooling of the euro zone’s fiscal resources. So, in their view, any reduction of peripheral yields on this news will be short-lived.

[FBS_Official 10]

Commerzbank: comments on EUR/CHF

 

Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that euro managed to find support at 1.2270 trading versus Swiss franc after its fall from Friday’s maximum of 1.2646.

 

The specialists think that the pair EUR/CHF will be able to recover not higher than to 1.2644 or 1.2469/85. In their view, the mentioned resistance levels will constrain further advance of the sing currency.

[FBS_Official 10]

Hawk Andrew Sentance is leaving the Bank of England

 

The outlook for British pound depends on how the uncertainty about the Bank of England’s MPC decisions will resolve. Here there’s a significant change in the state of things: Andrew Sentance is leaving British central bank next week after a year of calling for the rate hike.

 

During this year Sentance managed to convince 2 other MPC members – Spenser Dale and Martin Weal – that it’s necessary to raise the borrowing costs in UK in order to stem rising inflation that reached in April the maximal level since 2008 of 4.5%. According to the BoE forecast, in May this figure will iclimb to 5%. The main argument against increasing rates is the weakness of Britain’s economy: data released yesterday showed that consumer spending and investment survived in the first quarter the biggest slump in 2 years.

 

How the MPC will vote on the next meeting that will take place on June 9 depends on the newcomer former Goldman Sachs economist Ben Broadbent who will succeed Sentance as a policy maker. On May 17 Broadbent said that there are strong arguments both for lifting up the rates and staying on hold.

[FBS_Official 10]

BNZ: NZD/USD may rise to $0.8213

 

Analysts at BNZ claim that New Zealand’s dollar is currently one of the most demanded currency in the world: it surged versus its US counterpart from $0.7990 yesterday approaching today the $0.8200 area.

 

The specialists note that kiwi is helped by the reports that China Investment Corp., Chinese sovereign wealth fund, has planned to invest 1.5% of its foreign-exchange reserves to in New Zealand’s assets.

 

According to BNZ, NZD/USD is poised up to the post-float maximum at $0.8213 hit in February 2008. The strategists think, however, that as there are too many bulls on kiwi right now, the pair may pause for some time. The bank says that resistance for New Zealand’s currency is found at $0.8214, while support lies at $0.8110.

[FBS_Official 10]

UBS, BoT-Mitsubishi: US dollar will strengthen

 

US dollar bears are reducing their short positions on American currency ahead of the end of the Fed’s QE2 in June, reports Financial Times.

 

The Federal Reserve’s bond purchases flooded the county’s financial system with the excessive amount of the national currency. The greenback has weakened becoming widely used as a funding currency in carry trades. The stock of money in the US has tripled from $844 billion in August 2008 before the Fed’s first round of quantitative easing began to more than $2,390 billion.

 

Economists at Standard & Poor’s think that the expiration of QE2 will ease the fundamental pressure on dollar seen during the recent years. In their view, there may be a wave of short covering as investors buy back dollars that they sold earlier and this could mean that the USD downtrend’s over.

 

According to CME data, during the week before May 17 speculators cut the value of their US dollar shorts by $8 billion to $25.5 billion, the minimal level since January.

 

Specialists at UBS note that pension funds have also been reducing bearish bets on American currency so far. According to the bank, dollar will be able to get higher as the Fed’s decision to finish QE will reduce the usage of dollar in carry trades and improve the confidence of Asian central banks and reserve managers in the US currency.

 

Strategists at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ pointed out that investors are worried about the inability of US Parliament to push through the legislation that would increase US debt ceiling. As the risk sentiment deteriorates due to this matter and also because of the euro zone’s debt crisis, the demand for safe havens such as Swiss franc, Japanese yen and also US dollar is going to increase in the coming months. However, one should remember that if US debt limit isn’t lifted by the beginning of August, the United States will face the danger of default.

[FBS_Official 10]

Commerzbank: euro’s advance is a correction

 

The single currency has recovered from Monday’s minimum at 1.3970 to the levels above 1.4200 trading versus the greenback.

 

Technical analysts at Commerzbank regard the upward move of the pair EUR/USD as correction, though they expect euro to climb a little higher before failing at 1.4340/65 or 1.4570 representing 38.2% and 61/8% Fibonacci retracement.

 

According to the bank, the general outlook remains bearish. The European currency is poised down to 1.3770 (38.2% retracement of the pair’s advance from 2010 to 2011) and then 1.3463/1.3390 (55-week MA and the 11-month support line).