Anatomy of a Trade

[peterjerome 10]

Anatomy of a Trade:

The two charts attached will be helpful in understanding trading methodology.

PnF chart and standard bar chart.

 

Start with basket of 'fundamentally' sound equities, i.e. CANSLIM.

i use PnF charts to identify setups, then switch to standard bar charts to identify entry opportunities. PnF is superior for determining Supply & Demand relationships, and in identifying Support & Resistance levels. it's also extremely easy to determine reward / risk. if you are not already using R/R, your profits are most likely not consistent. intra-day traders typically use R/R ratio of "2" because the very short-term trade is either going with you or against you. a 50/50 proposition. inter-day traders(swing & position) should look for R/R of "3". using PnF it's easy to locate R/R of "5" or greater. it will help to learn some PnF basics. you do not, however, need to be an expert.

 

Strategy:

scan the basket daily after market close looking for "double-top with rising bottom" patterns. it's effective (80% profitability) and easy enough to identify manually. if your trading platform supports java script, you can take your scanning to the next level through use of .efs programs embedded into your PnF charts. i'm a position trader, but this technique also suits other interday (NOT intraday) traders.

 

The PnF chart shows the dbl-top pattern forming.

when the pattern is at the stage shown in chart, add stock to watch-list and monitor daily with standard bar chart. this will give an opportunity to get in at a more advantageous price.

the column of green Xs on the far right shows the dbl-top forming. this pattern is 2 boxes($2) away from the breakout. now is the time to switch to standard bar chart...see standard bar chart.

 

a simple method to calculate potential target price is shown on PnF chart.

calculating reward/risk is shown on standard bar chart.

 

Standard bar chart.

the first red arrow (2/17/11) identifies reversal up. at this point the dbl-top pattern is $2 away from the 'breakout'. 4 bars later, on 2/24/11, Low drops to 29.89. no reversal down happens as Low must drop to 29. at the 2nd red arrow, 3/3/11, entry occurs. all 5 entry requirements are met.

study and understand these entry requirements.

 

Entry requirements:

CCI makes trend line break(TLB), concurrent with the TLB, CCI also crosses above the zero line(ZL), AND crosses above the +100 line. crossing both the ZL and +100 level within a single bar is a very significant event in and of itself. executing a TLB in addition makes it highly significant.

additionally the entry bar is an UP bar(close > open), volume exceeds prior day volume, and swing low pivot occurs. swing low pivot is a 3 bar pattern consisting of a low (bar1), a lower low(bar2), and higher low(bar3).

 

the initial stop loss is set from the PnF chart @ 29. in PnF, this would be a reversal back down that makes a dbl-bottom breakout. a clear exit.

you can use a trailing stop as price continues up, or any other exit management you prefer. i.e. average true range(ATR), whatever... your choice.

 

going back to the PnF chart you can see our 'real' objective is to capitalize on the dbl-top breakout @ $34. if this breakout occurs we will be in at a very desirable price indeed. Note: the black-dashed line at top of standard bar chart is 52wk high @ 34.75. no doubt this will come into play later.

 

You can see the Reward/Risk calculation on chart. Use the target price obtained from PnF.

 

Have fun...post any question.

Peter.

[steve46 12]

When you indicate that a pattern is profitable and suggest a percentage, the obvious questions include

1. Over what period of time was your sample taken

2. How many data points did you include

3. Is your description of the pattern in your post exact.

 

 

Occasionally I like to replicate a person's research to see how accurate the claim is. I appreciate you providing the data. I like the idea and hope that I can confirm it..

 

and for those reading after this post, the "take-away" on this is as follows...as a professional I don't mind trading ideas that other originate...but...I do not simply throw money at a trade because someone suggests that it works....I always do my own research first for a couple of reasons

 

First, when you do your own testing, knowing the result gives you the confidence to take the trades. Based on an analysis of the distribution of data, a trader can be confident that he/she knows what to expect when they actually trade the pattern. They can be confident enough to take trades even when they have a streak of losers, and as importantly, working with the data, you get a feel for when/if the concept stops working...because the number of losers increases exponentially over time...you see what I mean.

Edited March 21, 2011 by steve46

[peterjerome 10]

When you indicate that a pattern is profitable and suggest a percentage, the obvious questions include

1. Over what period of time was your sample taken

2. How many data points did you include

3. Is your description of the pattern in your post exact.

 

Occasionally I like to replicate a person's research to see how accurate the claim is. I appreciate you providing the data. I like the idea and hope that I can confirm it..

 

steve,

the statistical information is from "Profit and Probability---Technical Analysis of the Price Fluctations of Common Stocks by Point and Figure Method", by Robert Earl Davis, Associate Professor of Chemistry, Purdue University,

 

i got the information from "Point & Figure Charting", "The Essential Application for Forecasting and Trading Market Prices", by Thomas J. Dorsey.

 

As to the Double-Top pattern, it is one of many patterns. Based on the above reference, the Double Top is profitable 80. 3%. The average gain is 38.7% over an 11.5 month period. Additionally the stats are assuming a Bull Market.

 

not sure what you mean in #3 above...is the description exact? the PnF chart i supplied shows a 'typical' Double Top. all double tops will not be 'exactly' the same, but the 'concept' is the same. Thomas Dorsey additionally points out "...as you can see there is a variation in these formations...different traders may find one item more important than another..."

 

you can always embrace the concept and 'paper trade'. that way you can determine if the methodology works for you and not risk any dollars. my experience is that the trader, NOT the methodology, is the ultimate 'statistical test'. as for myself, my income comes from trading. my results are now steady, 5.5% monthly returns...equity curve up and to the right...a beautiful thing.

 

i am where i am now after years of trying every trading system on the horizon...and failing. Pogo put it best, "We have met the enemy, and he is us".

good luck,

peter.

[MightyMouse 12]

Anatomy of a Trade:

The two charts attached will be helpful in understanding trading methodology.

PnF chart and standard bar chart.

 

Start with basket of 'fundamentally' sound equities, i.e. CANSLIM.

i use PnF charts to identify setups, then switch to standard bar charts to identify entry opportunities. PnF is superior for determining Supply & Demand relationships, and in identifying Support & Resistance levels. it's also extremely easy to determine reward / risk. if you are not already using R/R, your profits are most likely not consistent. intra-day traders typically use R/R ratio of "2" because the very short-term trade is either going with you or against you. a 50/50 proposition. inter-day traders(swing & position) should look for R/R of "3". using PnF it's easy to locate R/R of "5" or greater. it will help to learn some PnF basics. you do not, however, need to be an expert.

 

Strategy:

scan the basket daily after market close looking for "double-top with rising bottom" patterns. it's effective (80% profitability) and easy enough to identify manually. if your trading platform supports java script, you can take your scanning to the next level through use of .efs programs embedded into your PnF charts. i'm a position trader, but this technique also suits other interday (NOT intraday) traders.

 

The PnF chart shows the dbl-top pattern forming.

when the pattern is at the stage shown in chart, add stock to watch-list and monitor daily with standard bar chart. this will give an opportunity to get in at a more advantageous price.

the column of green Xs on the far right shows the dbl-top forming. this pattern is 2 boxes($2) away from the breakout. now is the time to switch to standard bar chart...see standard bar chart.

 

a simple method to calculate potential target price is shown on PnF chart.

calculating reward/risk is shown on standard bar chart.

 

Standard bar chart.

the first red arrow (2/17/11) identifies reversal up. at this point the dbl-top pattern is $2 away from the 'breakout'. 4 bars later, on 2/24/11, Low drops to 29.89. no reversal down happens as Low must drop to 29. at the 2nd red arrow, 3/3/11, entry occurs. all 5 entry requirements are met.

study and understand these entry requirements.

 

Entry requirements:

CCI makes trend line break(TLB), concurrent with the TLB, CCI also crosses above the zero line(ZL), AND crosses above the +100 line. crossing both the ZL and +100 level within a single bar is a very significant event in and of itself. executing a TLB in addition makes it highly significant.

additionally the entry bar is an UP bar(close > open), volume exceeds prior day volume, and swing low pivot occurs. swing low pivot is a 3 bar pattern consisting of a low (bar1), a lower low(bar2), and higher low(bar3).

 

the initial stop loss is set from the PnF chart @ 29. in PnF, this would be a reversal back down that makes a dbl-bottom breakout. a clear exit.

you can use a trailing stop as price continues up, or any other exit management you prefer. i.e. average true range(ATR), whatever... your choice.

 

going back to the PnF chart you can see our 'real' objective is to capitalize on the dbl-top breakout @ $34. if this breakout occurs we will be in at a very desirable price indeed. Note: the black-dashed line at top of standard bar chart is 52wk high @ 34.75. no doubt this will come into play later.

 

You can see the Reward/Risk calculation on chart. Use the target price obtained from PnF.

 

Have fun...post any question.

Peter.

 

Canslim is very effective. I used it and also used Vectorvest when i traded stocks longer term.

 

The brilliance of your system is that you are buying stocks in an uptrend or bull market. In a bull market, the bull charges through even the best topping chart patterns. It pays to be long and stay long.

 

You need a good read on the overall market to know when the bull market will begin to range and then if it will break out higher and resume the bull run or break out lower begin a down trend.

 

So, are you going to trade long only? If so, does your system keep you out of the market completely in spite of a stock being an excellent Canslim candidate? I apologize of you have already answered these above.

[peterjerome 10]

Canslim is very effective. I used it and also used Vectorvest when i traded stocks longer term.

 

The brilliance of your system is that you are buying stocks in an uptrend or bull market. In a bull market, the bull charges through even the best topping chart patterns. It pays to be long and stay long.

 

So, are you going to trade long only? If so, does your system keep you out of the market completely in spite of a stock being an excellent Canslim candidate? I apologize of you have already answered these above.

 

mighty,

good questions.

yes, i am a Long only player. i find it easier to stay in the mindset of a buyer all the time. i'm in the trade until the primary trend changes. however, you have to be able to 'ride' through the 'normal' volatility in trend. if the normal peak to valley movement is 8-10%, so be it. you have to be able to detect when the stock is 'range bound' and sit tight. at the end of range period, uptrend may resume.

 

the primary trend change involves a lower high, a lower low, then a break below that last lower low. knowing where support/resistance levels occur is key. PnF can help here.

 

on your question of preventing long entry into weak market, i use other techniques to judge market direction. again, PnF is very useful in locating supply / demand relationships on market indicies. i look for a PnF pattern known as 'bullish reversal'.

 

hope this is helpful.

good trading to you mighty,

peter.

[MightyMouse 12]

mighty,

good questions.

yes, i am a Long only player. i find it easier to stay in the mindset of a buyer all the time. i'm in the trade until the primary trend changes. however, you have to be able to 'ride' through the 'normal' volatility in trend. if the normal peak to valley movement is 8-10%, so be it. you have to be able to detect when the stock is 'range bound' and sit tight. at the end of range period, uptrend may resume.

 

the primary trend change involves a lower high, a lower low, then a break below that last lower low. knowing where support/resistance levels occur is key. PnF can help here.

 

on your question of preventing long entry into weak market, i use other techniques to judge market direction. again, PnF is very useful in locating supply / demand relationships on market indicies. i look for a PnF pattern known as 'bullish reversal'.

 

hope this is helpful.

good trading to you mighty,

peter.

 

I use raw reversal bar form of PnF. I rely on them heavily in my trading.

 

It's a shame you don't plan on shorting. Canslim or VV can be used to select a basket of weak overpriced stocks in a weak market. Stocks tend to go down faster than the go up.

 

MM

[peterjerome 10]

I use raw reversal bar form of PnF. I rely on them heavily in my trading.

 

It's a shame you don't plan on shorting. Canslim or VV can be used to select a basket of weak overpriced stocks in a weak market. Stocks tend to go down faster than the go up.

 

MM

 

Mighty,

PnF reversal is factored into my exit strategy, however it's not "raw".

support / resistance levels are typically 'tested'.

consider the bar chart below on ANDE, one of my current positions.

12/01/10 entry @ 33.30

12/07/10 price makes new High @ 38

12/14 10 PnF reversal @35, Low 'tests' exit @ 34.81, volume down -40%, supply weak.

'typical test'

12/15/10 next bar Low @ 35.02, barely above exit, volume stronger (shows demand)

12/16/10 price opens above exit and closes below. volume down -15%, supply weak.

12/17/10 bar close up 1% with volume up 130% demand strong.

remaining bars all make higher lows. demand trending up

SO when the price drops below exit, supply is weak and when price moves above exit, demand is strong. so i sit tight.and enjoy the ride.

 

on the shorting thing...i used to short and would occasionally find myself on both sides of the market, Long & Short at same time. i found this awkward. like cheering for both sides of the market. i have to be EITHER a buyer OR seller and i'm not about to pass up a profitable Long opportunity just so i can short. trust me mighty, i'm not missing out.

don't cry for me agentina.

 

thanks for posting,

good trading,

peter.

[peterjerome 10]

Mighty,

here's a little clarification on my shorting strategy we discussed.

i will definitely Short in a Bear mkt. like 1987...be crazy not to. how to determine Bear Mkt?

the absolute best indicator for determining mkt direction is the NYSE Bullish Percent Indicator. it's based on PnF charts. to use it effectively, you must really understand how it works. if you are not already aquainted with this indicator, i would highly recommend due dilligence research on this indicator. you won't regret it. see chart on stockcharts.COM. Symbol = $BPNYA. change the box size to "3". stockcharts sets the default at "2".

 

hope this clarifies my strategy.

good trading,

peter.

[MightyMouse 12]

Mighty,

here's a little clarification on my shorting strategy we discussed.

i will definitely Short in a Bear mkt. like 1987...be crazy not to. how to determine Bear Mkt?

the absolute best indicator for determining mkt direction is the NYSE Bullish Percent Indicator. it's based on PnF charts. to use it effectively, you must really understand how it works. if you are not already aquainted with this indicator, i would highly recommend due dilligence research on this indicator. you won't regret it. see chart on stockcharts.COM. Symbol = $BPNYA. change the box size to "3". stockcharts sets the default at "2".

 

hope this clarifies my strategy.

good trading,

peter.

 

Peter,

 

I have had that bookmarked for a long time. Its a very slow moving indicator but it did a good job calling the turn in 2009. I do not use it as I have gotten away from longer term strategies and have focused entirely on short term futures trading.

 

By raw I meant that the reversal bar plots like a candle and not like the customary "x" or "o" like a PnF. So it shows the OHLC, like a time based bar, but a new bar is triggered identically in the same way as a new PnF bar.

 

MM

[peterjerome 10]

MM,

sounds like a good plan to me.

thanks for sharing.

peter.

[ReynaFan 10]

peterjerome,

 

I've been actively trading for a little over a year now, and I caonsider myself a swingtrader. I still have an office job, so my posiitons usually last 3 days to one month, although I've gone both shorter and longer.

 

Questions:

1. What are your avg hold times?

2. Where can I learn more about PnF charts?

3. Other than the usual pitfalls of trading options, are there any other reasons buying calls as proxy for the asset?

 

Thanks for any help,

David

[peterjerome 10]

peterjerome,

 

I've been actively trading for a little over a year now, and I caonsider myself a swingtrader. I still have an office job, so my posiitons usually last 3 days to one month, although I've gone both shorter and longer.

 

Questions:

1. What are your avg hold times?

2. Where can I learn more about PnF charts?

3. Other than the usual pitfalls of trading options, are there any other reasons buying calls as proxy for the asset?

 

Thanks for any help,

David

 

david,

#1 - i hold "until"... as long as it's profitable. here's the current folio showing entry dates:

 

CAM - 1000 on 05/27/10 @ $38

HAL - 1000 on 11/15/10 @ $36.66

ANDE - 1000 on 01/11/11 @38.92

UNH - 2000 (2 positions) 01/11/11 avg $39.66

TBL - 2000 on 01/18/11 @ $33.19

PM - 650 on 02/23/11 @ $61.80

ODFL - 2000(2 positions) 03/17/11 avg $34.27

IBN - 500 on 03/24/11 @ $47

 

since i started this methodology EVERY month for last 7 months is profitable.avg roi 5.1%

 

#2 there are tons of books on PnF available.

i have "Point & Figure Charting" by Thomas J. Dorsey.

Stockcharts.COM has pretty good PnF charting for free. check this page at stockcharts. it lists many indice that track various sectors, using a 'percentage' basis. e.g. how many stocks in the energy sector are on buy or sell signals? many sectors available. this gives great look at those sectors turning up or down. i use this as additional qualification for entry.

 

StockCharts.com - Free Charts - Symbol Search

 

#3...i'm not an options guy but the book has a chapter on this topic. the easiest option for going long would be an 'in the money"call when you have double-top breakout.

 

i have a methodology on trading that is based on finding candidates with PnF charts. i use standard bar charts for entry. also strategy for exit, but too complicated to go into here.

 

ask any question david.

good trading,

peter.

[ReynaFan 10]

Thanks for the added clarification; I'll begin research on PnF charting. Also, Since it's on offer, I'll ask more questions:

 

1. It's hard to tell by looking at current holdings, so what is average length of time you hold an asset? What is relative short time and relative long time? (Are your answers solid guesses on memory or tracked regularly?)

 

2. I see that you average a 5... ROI monthly. What percentage of positions get stopped out? It seems you're setting a target price, too. What percentage hit that target price? (Again-are your answers solid guesses on memory or tracked regularly?)

 

3. I understand entry and exit can get complicate in explanations, but I'd like to hear more. I know you use bar charts. What time frames? What indicators?

 

FYI, this will probably lead to more questions...

 

David

[peterjerome 10]

Thanks for the added clarification; I'll begin research on PnF charting. Also, Since it's on offer, I'll ask more questions:

 

1. It's hard to tell by looking at current holdings, so what is average length of time you hold an asset? What is relative short time and relative long time? (Are your answers solid guesses on memory or tracked regularly?)

 

2. I see that you average a 5... ROI monthly. What percentage of positions get stopped out? It seems you're setting a target price, too. What percentage hit that target price? (Again-are your answers solid guesses on memory or tracked regularly?)

 

3. I understand entry and exit can get complicate in explanations, but I'd like to hear more. I know you use bar charts. What time frames? What indicators?

 

FYI, this will probably lead to more questions...

 

David

david,

i have 10yrs of ALL trades in a real-time folio. i can look at any past trade(chart) and determine exactly what went right or wrong...ie, weak entry, or bad exit strategy. this has helped tremendously to see exactly where i went wrong. over the years i've been able to correct most everything i was doing wrong. about 60% of trades are profitable. the ones that go against me are closed quickly, so losses are small compared to winners. you can see the current folio i posted has 8 positions. they are all profitable anywhere from 2% (recent trade) to 52% (10 mos). the average current gain for the entire folio is 19%. you can see the entry dates and prices from my last post. i've posted several times on my entry strategy. i don't use profit targets or fixed stops. i don't have a pre-determined time-frame for how long to hold an equity... i stay long until the primary trend reverses. for exit strategy, i watch the relative strength of equity compared to S&P500, watch the 'sector' for a sell signal and watch the primary trend for weakness. i track the average daily gains and eliminate those equities that 'are not pulling their weight' and replace with another candidate. some stocks will last only a week, some 9 mos. or anything in between.

 

search my user name..you can see earlier charts showing entry strategy. the ONLY indicator i use is CCI.this way i don't have 'paralysis of analysis).

 

fwiw...i traded for about 15 yr. (and lost a bundle...several times) before i started 'getting it'. my last post referred to an average 5% monthly(60% annual) gain for last 7 mos. this is AFTER i deduct ALL living expense...all life style costs, food, clothes, travel, vacations, cruising, housing, the 5% monthly gain is really an increase of net worth.

good trading,

peter

[ReynaFan 10]

Thanks for this input, peterjerome. I found some good infor on PnF online. I will start tracking things on paper to see if it helps me in my strategy. I use a few options strategies where the option is a proxy for the asset. One strategy is a simple long strategy. If this can help me identify trends and filter noise better, that could improve what I'm doing. I'm currently in a long position that I'm starting to lose confidence in. It's moving in my favor, but at a slow rate and on small volume-not characteristics of the better trades I've made. I've since gone back and looked at the PnF, and the chart indiactes a bear trend. If I were using this charting system to screen candidates, I wouldn't have entered the position in the firts place. I'm giving this a couple of more days to make a move, and if not or steps backward, I'm out-with a small loss.

 

One more question for now: Do you ever change the box size or reversal amounts, other than the one example to help identify overall market direction? if so, any explanation into your thinking would be interesting.

[peterjerome 10]

:....

 

3. I understand entry and exit can get complicate in explanations, but I'd like to hear more. I know you use bar charts. What time frames? What indicators?

 

FYI, this will probably lead to more questions...

 

David

 

david,

here's some additional detail on exit strategy. this is usefull for all position traders or investors.

#1 first clue, the weekly chart shows a lower HIGH and lower LOW

#2 price opens and closes below the LSMA-25. (25 period least square moving average)

#3 PnF chart shows a double bottom. (not a breakout, just the bottom)

LSMA is a version of Woodies CCI system. installed the LSMA into price pane. CCI is the only indicator in separate pane. i believe this MA is supported on other platforms.)

 

today i closed my long position in CAM and can re-deploy assets.

good trading,

peter

[peterjerome 10]

Thanks for the added clarification; I'll begin research on PnF charting. Also, Since it's on offer, I'll ask more questions:

David

 

david,

here's a practical and useful explanation of using PnF to determine market direction. my entry strategy incorporates similar concepts.this is a powerful concept when used correctly. make it part of your 'system'...can save your behind....

 

Market Breadth: Point & Figure Internal Indicators

 

good trading,

peter.

[fxallday 10]

Psychology is a very important factor in trading, which unfortunately for me was a disaster. No patience at all, I was get stressed, closed and opened trades without logic. Therefore chose to trade through Zulutrade' s autotrading platform. Now my Signal Providers do all the hard work. :haha::haha:However I still keep on watching their open positions in case I have to change or set limit and stop orders.

[gavind 11]

Sorry to bump this up guys. Has anyone tried to follow a signal provider at Zulutrade? If yes, can you post a quick review on you experience so far?