Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

TinGull

YM Analysis 1/12/07

Recommended Posts

Yesterday we had a really powerful trend in the morning, and then come afternoon things faltered and we fell back down...right at the 600 level that provided us with resistance before.

 

TPO count was balanced at 122/123, so nothing to talk abou there. We did see what looks like a short covering rally shown as a "P" formation in the profile, and what clues one into the fact that it very well may have been is the lack of buying through the 600 level. The momentum was there to clear it, but we started faltering at 580 which was a real critical level for days and days, and never made it past 602.

 

Today, we're opening up under value as of this moment. Retail Sales has just come out and the market seems a bit questionable as to it's direction, but just about anything under the close is going to give a price under value. We closed just 2 points inside of value from the downside.

 

After the F profile probed the high of the day, we never came back to that level. As it happened in the first half of the day, I would say buying waned and old shorts had been covered, but no new buying was happening.

 

thum_44245a78b6510fa5.jpg

 

While volume surged in the cash markets, the YM had it's lowest volume day of 2007 which supports the cause for no renewed buying interest. For those that follow the delta divergence...notice how on the dailies we're moving up on less net buying...interesting!

 

How could we play today? If we do open up under value, I'd look to possibly short at 565. Be careful, as we've got a smaller VA than yesterday and we're very close to it. Any probe back into value could lead us through the value area into the 600 area.

 

I somehow think that may be a more likely scenario...but with the range the YM has traded all '07 (around 100 points a day), if we falter at 600 we're gonna be heading down towards yesterdays lows.

 

Careful out there...could be tricky!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Chris

 

YM action yesterday 12 January just before noon.

 

Would you have any explanation for the YM gapping up over 30 points at about 11:45 am. :confused: The cash market was around 12550 or thereabouts and hardly moved when the YM suddenly gapped up. In fact it didn’t really move until later.

 

Thanks Chris

 

Robert

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi Robert,

 

The gap up was caused because of the trading halt on the CBOT. I think it gapped up roughly 30-40 points when if started trading again. Doesnt happen often but sucks if you're stuck on the wrong side.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Something interesting to look at in hindsight...what sort of things did the profile tell us on Thursday that could have led to Friday being a "day off" for most of us?

 

First of all...with Monday being a holiday we kind of knew it wasn't going to be a fantastic day. BUT, with that being said, Thursday did give us clues. The biggest clue for me was the TPO count. It is seldom that we have a day when the TPO count is as equal as it was on Thursday.

 

We had volume discrepencies between the futures players and the cash market. Could that have been a sign? I've never done any research on that, so any help there would be awesome.

 

As I had mentioned, any probe into the value area would potentially lead us up through value (as it did end up doing) but we were opening up under value having closed at the very low of end value, looking like we wanted to sell off further.

 

When signals are this mixed, from now on, I will most likely stay out of the market as best I can unless something truly unbelieable comes into action. As it was, I had a losing trade yesterday of -9 points, and called it a day. There wasn't much I felt I could trust in the markets. That's not even considering the CBOT fiasco.

 

Just some interesting things to take note of for when something like that happens again.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

James

 

Thanks for your explanation.

I didn’t know and didn’t even realise that the CBOT had gone down at the relevant point of time. Something new to me and to bear in mind for the future. Sure agree with you that it sucks if on the wrong side of the market – I was flat at the time.

 

In fact I thought that the YM had finally caught up with fair value as it had been trading under FV for some days.

 

Anyway after I posted my query I got an email from PureTick.com advising that the CBOT had gone down and that they had a video created on how to handle this type of situation if it happens again.

 

I am placing the link to this video for the benefit of other members [i don’t have permission from them to do so but I hope they don’t mind me just directing interested parties to their creation]. Don’t know if the contents are with any foundation but would be grateful if you could give us your comments on the suggested method of handling a similar situation.

 

“The CBOT (the exchange the YM is traded through) went down today for the first time in awhile. It's bound to happen from time to time and you should have a catastrophic plan to protect against losses. A few of our traders were in positions when this happened. I've asked Bearish trader to create a video on what to do if this happens again. I don't want any of you guys to get creamed. Please take a few minutes and listen to his comments. Thanks.â€Â

 

VIDEO:

 

Chris

 

I understand your comments about the use of MP to gauge the type of trading day Friday was likely to be.

 

However there is no likelihood that MP powerful and useful as it maybe could have foretold the situation created by the CBOT halt. The TPO count etc might have indicated a possible type of trading day but it could not have taken the halt into consideration. As you say ‘something interesting to look at in hindsight’

 

 

 

All told we live and learn – something new each day.

 

Thanks

 

Robert

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi Robert,

 

The easiest way to hedge against your position on the YM is go with the ES. If you are short the YM and the CBOT goes down, go long the ES. Im assuming the CME is still working fine. If you are long the YM, go short the ES. The YM mimics the ES in terms of price movement so by doing this you should be able to limit your losses.

 

If both the CME and CBOT goes down, you may want to use the ETF's for a hedge.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Robert,

 

I'm in no way saying that market profile could have told the CBOT was going go down. I'm just saying that up until then and pretty much after that as well the trading was sloppy. If that halt hadn't come into effect, you still would have seen the sloppy trading on friday, be it because of the action the day before or because of a holiday weekend.

 

That's all :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • NFLX Netflix stock watch, local support and resistance areas at 838.12 and 880.5 at https://stockconsultant.com/?NFLX
    • Date: 8th April 2025.   Markets Rebound Cautiously as US-China Tariff Tensions Deepen     Global markets staged a tentative recovery on Tuesday following a wave of volatility sparked by escalating trade tensions between the United States and China. The Asia-Pacific region showed signs of stability after a chaotic start to the week—though some pockets remained under pressure. Taiwan’s Taiex dropped 4.4%, dragged lower by losses in tech heavyweight TSMC. The world’s largest chipmaker fell another 4% on Tuesday and has now slumped 13.5% since April 2, when US President Donald Trump first unveiled what he called ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs.   However, broader sentiment across the region turned more positive, with several markets rebounding sharply after Monday’s dramatic sell-offs. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged over 6% in early trading, rebounding from an 18-month low. South Korea’s Kospi rose marginally, and Australia’s ASX 200 gained 1.9%, driven by strength in mining stocks. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.6%, though still far from recovering from Monday’s 13.2% crash—its worst day since the 1997 Asian financial crisis. China’s Shanghai Composite added 0.9%.   In Europe, DAX and FTSE 100 are up more than 1% in opening trade. EU Commission President von der Leyen repeated yesterday that the EU had offered reciprocal zero tariffs on manufactured goods previously and continues to stand by that offer. Others are also trying again to talk to Trump to get some sort of agreement that limits the impact.   Much of the rally appeared to be driven by dip-buying, as well as hopes that the intensifying trade war could still be defused through negotiations.   China Strikes Back: ‘We Will Fight to the End’   Tensions reached a boiling point after Trump threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on all Chinese imports unless Beijing rolled back its retaliatory measures by April 8. ‘If China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long-term trading abuses by tomorrow... the United States will impose additional tariffs on China of 50%,’ Trump declared on social media.   If implemented, the new tariffs would bring total US duties on Chinese goods to a staggering 124%, factoring in the existing 20%, the 34% recently announced, and the proposed 50%.   In response, China’s Ministry of Commerce issued a stern warning, stating: ‘The US threat to escalate tariffs is a mistake on top of a mistake... If the US insists on its own way, China will fight to the end.’ The ministry also called for equal and respectful dialogue, though signs of compromise on either side remain scarce.   Beijing acted quickly to contain a market fallout. State funds intervened to support equities, and the People’s Bank of China set the yuan fixing at its weakest level since September 2023 to boost export competitiveness. Additionally, five-year interest rate swaps in China fell to their lowest levels since 2020, indicating potential for further monetary easing.   Trump Talks Tough on EU Too   Trump’s hardline approach extended beyond China. Speaking at a press conference, he rejected the European Union’s offer to eliminate tariffs on cars and industrial goods, accusing the bloc of ‘being very bad to us.’ He insisted that Europe would need to source its energy from the US, claiming the US could ‘knock off $350 billion in one week.’   The EU, meanwhile, backed away from a proposed 50% retaliatory tariff on American whiskey, opting instead for 25% duties on selected US goods in response to Trump’s steel and aluminium tariffs.     Volatile Wall Street Adds to the Drama   Wall Street experienced wild swings on Monday as investors processed the rapidly evolving trade conflict. The S&P 500 briefly fell 4.7% before rebounding 3.4%, nearly erasing its losses in what could have been its biggest one-day jump in years—if it had held. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank by as much as 1,700 points early in the day but later climbed nearly 900 points before closing 349 points lower, down 0.9%. The Nasdaq ended up 0.1%.   The brief rally was fueled by a false rumour that Trump was considering a 90-day pause on tariffs—rumours that the White House quickly labelled ‘fake news.’ The market's sharp reaction underscored how desperate investors are for any sign that tensions might ease.   Oil Markets in Focus: Goldman Sachs Revises Forecasts   Crude prices also reflected the uncertainty, with US crude briefly dipping below $60 per barrel for the first time since 2021. As of early Tuesday, Brent crude was trading at $64.72, while WTI hovered around $61.26.   Goldman Sachs, in a note dated April 7, lowered its average price forecasts for Brent and WTI through 2025 and 2026, citing mounting recession risks and the potential for higher-than-expected supply from OPEC+.       Under a base-case scenario where the US avoids a recession and tariffs are reduced significantly before the April 9 implementation date, Goldman sees Brent at $62 per barrel and WTI at $58 by December 2025. These figures fall further to $55 and $51, respectively, by the end of 2026. This outlook also assumes moderate output increases from eight OPEC+ countries, with incremental boosts of 130,000–140,000 barrels per day in June and July.   However, should the US slip into a typical recession and OPEC production aligns with the bank’s baseline assumptions, Brent could retreat to $58 by the end of this year and to $50 by December 2026.   In a more bearish scenario involving a global GDP slowdown and no change to OPEC+ output levels, Brent prices might fall to $54 by year-end and $45 by late 2026. The most extreme projection—based on a simultaneous economic downturn and a full reversal of OPEC+ production cuts—would see Brent plunge to below $40 per barrel by the end of 2026.   Goldman noted that oil prices could outperform forecasts significantly if there was a dramatic shift in tariff policy and a surprise in global demand recovery.   Cautious Optimism, But Warnings Persist   With both Washington and Beijing showing no signs of backing down, markets are likely to remain volatile in the days ahead. Investors now turn their attention to upcoming trade meetings and policy decisions, hoping for clarity in what has become one of the most unpredictable trading environments in recent years.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Andria Pichidi HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • CVNA Carvana stock watch, rebound to 166.56 support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?CVNA
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.