YM Ananlysis 1/11/07

[TinGull 10]

Tomorrows action…what might go on?Our TPO count was 188/173 favoring sellers again. Volume on the daily chart shows lighter volume today than yesterday. Every time this year that we’ve had a down day, it’s followed up by a weaker up day. Tomorrow will be interesting as something this evening made the YM jump about 20 points after hours. Don’t know if it was just from Genentech’s earnings report or what, but since then we've been selling off that high with 530 acting as our resistance (highs of this range we've been in).

 

12417 gave the YM a nice support level today. It is the monthly pivot. Then…S1 (434) was giving us a really nice bounce, as we hit that 4 times. Word is we’ve got some heavy support underneath us now, so bears are having a little of trouble. We may be looking for an upmove tomorrow, even though TPO counts are telling us otherwise. We need some direction from the markets instead of this ugle volatile action that’s been taking place in the morning.

 

12495 is VAH and 12457 is POC, while 12429 is holding down at VAL. What happened at the end is called a spike. I just studied this today in fact! Weird how that’s been happening lately. The spike started at the P rotation at 12510, which ishe weekly pivot. Any open above 510 and below 545 will lead me to believe that, if price stays there, we are finding value up at these levels and we should rotate there. Or of we, in fact, find that price gets rejected at these levels, some bears will get active.

 

Trades that would look good…depending where we open up…A long from 12495 (VAH) would be in good order. Note, too, that VAH was 499 from yesterday. Right in this 500 area we’re finding that value is at it’s maximum level. Remember, too, that if we open up outside of value but inside the range, one would be looking for any penetration of value to lead the YM through the value area. I think a great opportunity would be a penetration of 490ish to lead down to the 430's. Seems as though we're looking for around 100 point range as well. Watch where the B period ends and if we extend through the IB, add 100 points to the opposite end of the IB and that should give one a fair estimation of the days top.

 

Here is the MP chart for today and a few days back:

 

 

And yesterdays chart:

 

[Buk 10]

some nice, strightforward analysis there Tingull, even a ftrs index numpty like me could make some sense of your lowdown on the scenario!!

 

could I ask a question please regards your chart post?........

 

what's the relevance of the 'extreme' indicator at the bottom there?......

 

I'm guessing it affords you some degree of strength/weakness bias based on your tick reading?.......do you work this indicator in alongside the profile meter also?

 

go easy on this brain Tingull, it's an overcooked mass of fragile currency goo........ :rolleyes:

[TinGull 10]

HAHA! Hey Buk. That indicator is a valume breakdown of the delta of bid vs ask. Simply put, more buyers than sellers the line is green and vice versa. The extreme area just alerts to me to two things...either capitulation or the start to a heavy trend. Also...in my divergence strategy, that extreme will give me something solid to watch for as far as a divergence between that and the price movement as evidenced by the blue trendlines you see on that indicator.

 

Thanks for the kind words on the analysis

[TinGull 10]

Also to note...our slightly lower value placement.

[Buk 10]

much obliged!.......always interesting to see how traders from different camps assess & process information.......

 

appears you guys have your fingers glued well & truly to that market pulse! good to see........

 

good trading to you.........

[TinGull 10]

Thanks Buk, and to you as well

[Anna-Maria 10]

what's the relevance of the 'extreme' indicator at the bottom there?......

 

I'm guessing it affords you some degree of strength/weakness bias based on your tick reading?.......

 

go easy on this brain Tingull, it's an overcooked mass of fragile currency goo........ :rolleyes:

 

Well, now I've seen it all

 

You attempting to jump ship & skeedaddle to the "serious" traders camp Mr Buko????

 

Tingull, you may as well be speaking Russian for all he can decipher. If I were you I'd aggressively discourage any lame attempts from that boy to whack you out explaining the rights & wrongs of index trading.

 

Get back to your screens & earn us some dough, never mind freaking out the 'good guys'.

 

:mad:

[TinGull 10]

HA!! Will do Tex