Aud/usd

[MadMarketScientist 11]

Great thread so far on the AUDUSD - learning some good things.

 

I had a swing trade set-ups for a short from 1.0099 - target #1 1.0061 and target #2 1.0022. Only little twist there was that spike up at the 7pm EST with some news to 1.0138 which was exactly where the stop was -- so had to re-establish trade after that sucker punch. Since then at least though it has broken lower and am flat. Nothing else for me to do on it at least until tonight.

[Ingot54 13]

 

I had a swing trade set-ups for a short from 1.0099 - target #1 1.0061 and target #2 1.0022. Only little twist there was that spike up at the 7pm EST with some news to 1.0138 which was exactly where the stop was -- so had to re-establish trade after that sucker punch.

 

Since then at least though it has broken lower and am flat. Nothing else for me to do on it at least until tonight.

 

Have a look at my posts #11 & #12 ... exactly the same thing happened to me, so I feel I am in good company!

 

Speaking of learning things ... one of the things that has really made a difference to my survival in trading, was to stop looking at charts and thinking ... no ... this CAN"T be a turning point - the indicators are still saying the trend will continue.

 

But that's the rub with this game - the best of our indicators are late to the party, and although I think a better term than "lagging" could be coined, the facts are that our indicators can not alert us to situations where the market turns on a dime.

 

The best indicators then, are our eyes, and our experience. Right now, the 4H looks to be putting in a pin-bar , and if my earlier assessment of the Weekly chart is near the money, then this *could* turn out to be the bottom of the current down-trend.

 

Last time I said that, I had to eat a very large slice of humble pie - the market simply dislikes being told what it is going to do!

 

But rather than trying to predict, we are really in the business of being aware of possible scenarios, and then being prepared to act when any of the events comes to pass.

 

The bottom line here, is to be rigid in your application of your rules, and take EVERY setup that your rules tell you to. After that, the rest is management of the trade.

 

To pre-empt the market is to risk missing some very juicy trades indeed.

[Ingot54 13]

Well interesting development in AUD ...

 

We did indeed see respect of the DAILY S3 level, 1.0014 (actual 1.0009) followed by a rally back to the WEEKLY PP, 1.0063 (actual 1.0065). So these PP's have truly established their TA worth in this 4H environment.

 

Activity that followed:

 

A drop to the earlier support of 1.0030 (actual 1.0028) and a rebound to the DAILY S2 1.0051 (actual 1.0052). The open/close level of 1.0038 established itself as a new turning point/support/resistance over the course of 4 x 4H candles, and should be remembered as a zone of interest for the future.

 

The current candle has bounced off resistance at 1.0030 and now looks to have broken down below the DAILY S3 PP. This roughly coincides with a burst through parity (1.0000) which seems to be losing the respect it previously held as a psychological level of S & R.

 

We have a new 4H candle due now, and in the absence of significant PP's in the vicinity, we will need to be guided by price action of the lower TF.

 

The next support - S1 - occurs on the 1H TF @ 0.9963, and S2 @ 0.9913.

 

Getting back to the WEEKLY TF ... the bounce off 0.9978 is still within the support zone, but in light of the strong downtrend, this zone appears increasingly vulnerable. We would need to begin to see signs of consolidation at the current "peri-parity" zone, if indeed a rally is to eventuate before the end of the week's trading.

 

(Refer to the WEEKLY chart in my post above.)

[Mysticforex 13]

5 minute Bullish Diversion. So perhaps a small pop up, but I am still thinking a test of 9900.

[GlassOnion 12]

Mysticforex,

I for one would be very interested in how a week ago, you predicted this 200 pip move.

Thanks for this thread.

[Ingot54 13]

5 minute Bullish Diversion. So perhaps a small pop up, but I am still thinking a test of 9900.

 

Yes - I agree with your view on direction, Mystic.

 

The last 4 candles on 15M are red now, and this has sent Stochastic into a steepish dive, as well as MACD. In fact all systems are saying "sell" ... except for one tiny detail - the S1 PP.

 

Right now price has come within 7 pips of the S1 PP on at least 6 occasions, and is beginning to set up a consolidation base, of sorts.

 

If the current run (over the past hour) at the S1 fails, then a mini rally may occur, in keeping with your view of a "small pop up". But I would not become too enthused about any rally just yet - this push down has legs, and Bears will not allow any rally to get out of hand - just my view.

 

Once the S1 is defeated, the solid bearish trend *should* resume. This is just a pause. But as always - keep an open mind - the best money is made through getting into reversals at an early point.

 

We are currently right in the middle of some VERY solid support, and I expect tough going before any correction can proceed. The most likely scenario is for sideways movement from here ... let's see how it pans out.

[Mysticforex 13]

Yes - I agree with your view on direction, Mystic.

 

The last 4 candles on 15M are red now, and this has sent Stochastic into a steepish dive, as well as MACD. In fact all systems are saying "sell" ... except for one tiny detail - the S1 PP.

 

Right now price has come within 7 pips of the S1 PP on at least 6 occasions, and is beginning to set up a consolidation base, of sorts.

 

If the current run (over the past hour) at the S1 fails, then a mini rally may occur, in keeping with your view of a "small pop up". But I would not become too enthused about any rally just yet - this push down has legs, and Bears will not allow any rally to get out of hand - just my view.

 

Once the S1 is defeated, the solid bearish trend *should* resume. This is just a pause. But as always - keep an open mind - the best money is made through getting into reversals at an early point.

 

We are currently right in the middle of some VERY solid support, and I expect tough going before any correction can proceed. The most likely scenario is for sideways movement from here ... let's see how it pans out.

 

Yes, one thing we can be sure of is movement from left to right on the chart Lol.

 

ok, kidding aside, I would like to see a candle CLOSE below S1, even on the 15 min TF for a test of S2, which would be in the area of my original TP.

[Mysticforex 13]

AUD/USD still meandering... This is like watching paint dry.

[Ingot54 13]

AUD/USD still meandering... This is like watching paint dry.

 

Stuck on the DPP @ 1.0003. looks like this down-trend is strong enough to break through, but parity is a tough nut to crack!

 

I'm off to bed - usually don't get too excited about Mondays. No data on AUD until 10.30am local time Tuesday morning. That is 7.30pm Monday evening GMT.

 

There is not expected to be much hawkish news released from the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, given that Australia was in the grip of its cyclical floods and bushfires when the meeting was held.

 

The recovery effort locally does NOT need noises from the RBA, and the housing data was positive, though weak, so no need to scare the woodies with jawboning this time round.

 

Anyway - I will be more interested in the markets in 18 hours time - after the knee-jerks have done their thing, and the real trends begin to show. Right now there is nothing steering the currencies - it is INDEED meanderings!

 

The only thing I noted was that the EURO lost one cent today, which explains USD strength, and the deterioration of the AUD at the moment.

 

Cheers

[Mysticforex 13]

A/u back up to 10175...

I'm thinking about shorting again.

 

On my way out ATM, will post some charts later.

[Mysticforex 13]

Ok, have my setup worked out. 5 Min Chart. Will short on a candle close below TL.

TP WP @10095

[MadMarketScientist 11]

This pair has been driving me a little crazy this a.m. long from 1.10168 trying for 1.0195. Came close but missed - still long but stop at 1.0134....

[Mysticforex 13]

It's been driving me nuts too. :crap:

2 weeks ago I shorted @ 1019x, looking for 9900. grabbed 50 pips ( I had moved my stop to +50 ).

A/U has never been a fast mover, but seems a little range bound.

[GlassOnion 12]

This is great stuff Guys.

[Mysticforex 13]

My order filled last night @ 10180... Just TPed @10130 +50 pips.

[Mysticforex 13]

Here's what I'm looking at on the AUD/USD. I posted a video commentary, and a chart.

ant questions, post them here on the thread.

 

 

 

GoView™ Beta : Screen Recordings Made Easy™

[Mysticforex 13]

Ok, we have a candle close below the TL Havn't entered yet, have a Limit order @0095.

[Mysticforex 13]

Still in short. The Aussie employment news earlier helped. Still targetting the 9900 area.

[MadMarketScientist 11]

I'm also short at this time. Short from 1.0049 - first target 0.9997 but usually I'm afraid of that 1.0000 area so I'll raise my target to 1.0002 just to avoid having to break that level - after that I have 0.9942 for my stretch target. So I hope it gets to your objective. Stop for me now is 1.0091 which I'll lower to 1.0052 if I hit my first target.

 

MMS

[Mysticforex 13]

I'm also short at this time. Short from 1.0049 - first target 0.9997 but usually I'm afraid of that 1.0000 area so I'll raise my target to 1.0002 just to avoid having to break that level - after that I have 0.9942 for my stretch target. So I hope it gets to your objective. Stop for me now is 1.0091 which I'll lower to 1.0052 if I hit my first target.

 

MMS

 

 

Yes those big round numbers are usually key. we recently came down to 10008, I expect we should have a retest of that level.

Edited March 24, 2011 by Mysticforex

[MadMarketScientist 11]

I have a long going on AUDUSD now from 1.0046 target 1.0073 stop 1.0013. We'll see how it plays out. Exit end of day no weekend hold.

 

On my longer swing trade did get the profit target down to 1.0000 area so that was a nice one and went flat there.

 

MMS

[Mysticforex 13]

Ok, we have a candle close below the TL Havn't entered yet, have a Limit order @0095.

 

TP Hit @9900 +195 Pips.

 

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[Mysticforex 13]

Here's a new set up on the AUD/USD.

Click on the link to view the video:

 

 

CLICK HERE!

 

 

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[Mysticforex 13]

BTW... I forgot to mention, the pair is divergent on several TFs as well.

[Mysticforex 13]

This trade has opened for me @10214.

S/L10240.

TP 10123.... I have that set for now, I may increase the TP.