[es] Don Miller: Trading After Dark

[TradeRunner 10]

Don Miller has recorded one of his trading sequences on the ES:

 

Out of interest I marked up his entries and exits on 1 sec chart:

 

[steve46 12]

I think its ironic that with most folks looking to find a way to make money trading, this thread sits there with little or no activity.

In my opinion, Miller's recent posts showing his trading are about the best representation of professional trading that you will see (unless I decide to do the same thing).

For what its worth, Don goes about his business in a different way than I do...on his videos you see his desktop. I notice he uses moving averages, a 3 line break chart, $tick, and a few other things that I don't use. His understanding of the markets is very detailed. This is the kind of resource that I wish I had access to when I was starting out....

Anyway there are now four (4) videos in his series "trading after dark" and If you are serious about learning this profession, you couldn't do much better than watching this guy trade.

Here is the Internet link to the video

 

Episode #4: Chasing the Tail :: Trading After Dark

[MightyMouse 12]

Don Miller is absolutely one of the best self promoters I have ever seen in the trading education business. The bigger your cajones, the more you get. He got $7500 from someone I know. What a fool.

 

I am not suggesting that you cannot make money if you learn from him, but I am suggesting that he is making claims that are as wild, if not more wilder, as any other snake oil salesman out there. Does he make money trading? Maybe some. Maybe none. There is no way to really know. Is he trading live? Yeah right.

 

You guys can defend him against my statements all you want, but he will certainly not attempt to prove me wrong.

[steve46 12]

Yawn.......well I don't know the man, and I don't think he needs "defending"....what I notice however is that I haven't read even one negative comment from his students (I think they are called "jellies").

Personally I like the guy.....I've seen a couple of his videos and the bottom line is he makes money trading and his strategies seem to be fairly straightforward. As an example, in several of the videos I have seen he looks to get long as price is retracing down to prior support (what he defines as support based on prior price action)....It seems understandable and when it works (and it seems to work pretty well), he makes money...On the negative side, I think he stays with losing trades longer than I would but thats just me....

I am interested and will continue to monitor his videos....it looks like he trades several accounts of varying size and in one of his videos he suggested that he intends to show how he trades size....that one might be interesting to watch.

 

As I am writing this I am thinking that if I can get permission from my employer, it might be interesting to do a video of my own, so that folks can see how our trading styles compare....

 

Well good luck folks

Steve

Edited March 19, 2011 by steve46

[MightyMouse 12]

Yawn.......well I don't know the man, and I don't think he needs "defending"....what I notice however is that I haven't read even one negative comment from his students (I think they are called "jellies").

Personally I like the guy.....I've seen a couple of his videos and the bottom line is he makes money trading and his strategies seem to be fairly straightforward. As an example, in several of the videos I have seen he looks to get long as price is retracing down to prior support (what he defines as support based on prior price action)....It seems understandable and when it works (and it seems to work pretty well), he makes money...On the negative side, I think he stays with losing trades longer than I would but thats just me....

I am interested and will continue to monitor his videos....it looks like he trades several accounts of varying size and in one of his videos he suggested that he intends to show how he trades size....that one might be interesting to watch.

 

As I am writing this I am thinking that if I can get permission from my employer, it might be interesting to do a video of my own, so that folks can see how our trading styles compare....

 

Well good luck folks

Steve

 

Sure, he buys support and sells resistance with minor variation like anyone else who trades a range. And, yes, he stubbornly holds onto losing positions and that is the killer and you do not know if he makes money because there is no way to know.

 

An individual who pays $7500 for 1 month of training wants to believe that it is worth it. It's easier than dealing with the reality of what a sucker he was. The person I knew who did it stated that " I do not regret it". The funny thing was that I didn't ask if he regretted it or if he felt it was worth it. I was pretty sure it was a subconscious self protective mechanism.

 

I do not know if Dom Miller actually makes money, but someone who is claiming to have made 800% in a "private fund" in 6 years, like he does should be willing to back up that claim.

 

The real value of the videos is learning how to fleece traders of 7500 if you are into that. If you can get 4 guys a month do give you 7500 to talk to them online, I would say that is a comfortable living.

 

Somehow I suspect your employer will allow you to make a video soon. Good luck with your trading objectives.

 

MM

[steve46 12]

If you actually watch the videos you can SEE that he makes money....

 

in the videos you see him enter the position and make money...for me thats what counts.

 

Also I like his commentary explaining what he is doing

 

and finally, since YOU don't like him....and based on the quality of your past comments, I am starting to really like the guy.....I will be watching his videos and posting my opinion from here on in....

 

I am sure the rest of the adults will do the same

[MightyMouse 12]

If you actually watch the videos you can SEE that he makes money....

 

in the videos you see him enter the position and make money...for me thats what counts.

 

Also I like his commentary explaining what he is doing

 

and finally, since YOU don't like him....and based on the quality of your past comments, I am starting to really like the guy.....I will be watching his videos and posting my opinion from here on in....

 

I am sure the rest of the adults will do the same

 

I am not sure why you are interested in his videos. You are an institutional trader and the video is made for dumb retail traders.

 

YouTube is loaded with videos of traders with winning trades who explain how they won the trade. There is no way to lure a sucker in if you post a losing trade. I have no idea if he actually trades, makes money, loses money and am not naive enough to jump to a conclusion that he makes money by watching him narrate a winning trade nor should anyone else jump to such a conclusion.

 

As i have stated in a previous post, I know one of the people who purchased his services and i was sold hard on Don Miller the Guru and I drew my own conclusions and did not feel it was worth a single penny. I do feel that if someone is willing to claim that he made X% in Y years, then he should be willing to back it up.

 

A part of me feels the need to help a brother trader who may be gullible to be a little more objective before he takes the plunge and that includes you in spite of the anger you harbor from some of my past comments. Others have helped me in a similar manner and I am simply trying to do the same.

 

Real traders do not make money every day, week, month or even year for that matter. Anyone who claims otherwise is either inexperienced or a liar. Once again, you should know this. You are an institutional trader.

[steve46 12]

Well on his video Don acknowledges that he has losing streaks..once again you're talking about something you know nothing about...I wonder if you have the character necessary to be embarrassed? It doesn't seem like you do...because you make this kind of mistake all the time and you never apologize...I think you have some real emotional issues to manage and I am not in the mental health business..Clearly we are done here....

[Tradewinds 12]

I watched the video, and I got absolutely nothing from it. The trading platform I use has many ways to show every trade that was made, entry and exit prices, PL, and Cash balance. I really did not see the detail that I would have liked to see in that video. He does a lot of talking, but I did not see him pointing out what the basis for his trading was. If I didn't "get it", and other people did, then I guess I'm missing something. But personally, that video did absolutely nothing for me.

[TradeRunner 10]

• He doesn't look at his P&L during the day
  
• These video are provided for interest not teaching
  
• The trading commentary has been added latter
  
• He doesn't use stops
  
• If the market goes against him he often delays exiting until there is a retracement
  
• He starts with a bias and a premiss and only trades in the direction of the bias. The premiss allows him to enter early with little confirmation ("wholesale") and exit on pops ("retail"). Look at number #3 for example of where I think he has the wrong bias. You will often see that he has a resting order at previous resistance and in #4 that order is executed on a spike down.
  
• If you are looking for chart patterns you are going to be disappointed. Most of his charts are incredible long range compared to his holding time. For example in #4 he has 2min, 5min and 1min3LB charts but his holding time is <2min. I think he uses $tick/tape reading/experience to time his entries in zones that he has identified ahead of time.
  

 

Steve I would be interested in seeing any video you produce.

[TradeRunner 10]

This is the kind of resource that I wish I had access to when I was starting out....

 

How would you have used this resource when you started out?

[TradeRunner 10]

He does a lot of talking, but I did not see him pointing out what the basis for his trading was.

 

Didn't he explain this right at the start of the video (and also the title of the episode)? He talks about the overnight market rhythm: range bound market, series of tails, trades are taken on the assumption that this will continue early in the session.

 

What other information did you want?

[TradeRunner 10]

You guys can defend him against my statements all you want, but he will certainly not attempt to prove me wrong.

ok......................................

[steve46 12]

Hi Traderunner, thanks for the comments and questions

 

First, "How would I use the resource"...I think at first blush I would have said, jeez this guy isn't doing anything like I do....maybe (because I wasn't making money at the time) I am doing this all wrong....just first impression...and then knowing my thought process, I would have gone back and studied what he was doing in terms of 1. overall strategy...analyzing the previous day's price action. 2. Trying to determine "market bias".....3. Entering while price was retracing back to wholesale levels (that one would have given me problems mentally) 4. It would have been easier for me to know what kind of account size I needed, and how to use that size (gives you an example to look at)..

 

Now some years later, what I notice is that Don (and others traders) are making money using a variety of methods. That is encouraging, because it confirms what I have thought for a while, that you can succeed IF you have the right attitude, discipline and a risk management in place.

 

It also confirms what Mark Douglas taught me a long time ago, and that is that you have to learn to think (and act) in a "non-random" way....simply put you have to have confidence in your concept, and you have to take all the trades....even after you have had a few losers in a row, you still have to pull the trigger on the next one..(as long as you are trading correctly)...the time to "step aside" is when you have finished a specfic time period (week, month, whatever you decide in advance) and ONLY THEN do you analyze your results and make your changes if necessary.

 

So it seems to me that there is alot that can be learned from watching someone like Don Miller if you take the time to think about what you are seeing in his videos.

 

Good luck

[MightyMouse 12]

Well on his video Don acknowledges that he has losing streaks..once again you're talking about something you know nothing about...I wonder if you have the character necessary to be embarrassed? It doesn't seem like you do...because you make this kind of mistake all the time and you never apologize...I think you have some real emotional issues to manage and I am not in the mental health business..Clearly we are done here....

 

 

Steve,

 

You are assuming I said something and then getting mad about it and then suggesting I have mental health issues. Hmmm. I stated that I do not know if he makes money. You can read it up above. I never stated that he only has winning streaks. I stated that these guys only post videos of winning trades. I also stated that if someone states that they made X% in Y years, that they should be willing to back it up. You are simply misinterpreting my statement. I apologize for you.

 

If you get something out of the video to help your institutional trading then, its a good video.If someone else gets something from the video, then great. I am not suggesting that the video is not worth watching. I do know that it is a promotional video.

 

You do seem to want to prove things that you think i said wrong and that's actually kind of fun to watch. So go on and keep doing it, and I will keep correcting you until you finally do not misinterpret. Perhaps a good way for you to start is to read my post at least 2 times so that you can minimize your mistakes.

 

I wouldn't expect to have to go through this exercise with an institutional trader to be able to read better, but i guess i hold them in too high regard.

 

MM

[Tradewinds 12]

• He doesn't look at his P&L during the day
  

It's good not to be distracted by the P/L. While trading, it's fairly easy to get an idea of whether money is being made or lost overall. It's better to focus on trading.

 

• These video are provided for interest not teaching
  

 

Where does that lead? Usually when someone is intentionally trying to generate interest there is a motive involved. What's the motive? For someone who doesn't know much about trading, it does show some basic things. For example, that you can configure your screens with multiple windows in such a way to have all that information right in front of you.

 

• The trading commentary has been added latter
  

 

Good point. I didn't realize that.

 

• He doesn't use stops
  

 

In very short term trading, stops are just confusing, difficult to manage, and take too much time away from watching what you need to watch. My opinion.

 

• If the market goes against him he often delays exiting until there is a retracement.
  

 

That's partially a good strategy in my opinion. But I would not wait for a retracement to limit my losses under some situations.

 

 

• He starts with a bias and a premiss and only trades in the direction of the bias. The premiss allows him to enter early with little confirmation ("wholesale") and exit on pops ("retail"). Look at number
  

 

I had no idea what he was talking about when he was using the words "wholesale" and "retail". The implication is that he is buying low and selling high. It is an interesting and beneficial way of looking at things. Basically, that is the role of a trader, as an short term intermediary who is willing to take on short term risk.

 

• I think he uses $tick/tape reading/experience to time his entries in zones that he has identified ahead of time.
  

 

That is what I'm interested in. I did see that he was using the $TICK.

[Tradewinds 12]

Didn't he explain this right at the start of the video (and also the title of the episode)? He talks about the overnight market rhythm: range bound market, series of tails, trades are taken on the assumption that this will continue early in the session.

 

What other information did you want?

 

You are right. He does talk about those things. I failed to make the connection between the basis for his trades, and what was actually going on during the trading. So part of the issue is probably my failure of not being able to make the connection between what he explained as the basis for his trades, and the actual trading.

 

Did he show the chart patterns of the overnight market rhythm? Did he show the range bound market or the series of tails? The market rhythm and the range is probably intuitive to a large degree. I'm not familiar with what a "series of tails" is.

[MightyMouse 12]

• He doesn't look at his P&L during the day
  
• These video are provided for interest not teaching
  
• The trading commentary has been added latter
  
• He doesn't use stops
  
• If the market goes against him he often delays exiting until there is a retracement
  
• He starts with a bias and a premiss and only trades in the direction of the bias. The premiss allows him to enter early with little confirmation ("wholesale") and exit on pops ("retail"). Look at number #3 for example of where I think he has the wrong bias. You will often see that he has a resting order at previous resistance and in #4 that order is executed on a spike down.
  
• If you are looking for chart patterns you are going to be disappointed. Most of his charts are incredible long range compared to his holding time. For example in #4 he has 2min, 5min and 1min3LB charts but his holding time is <2min. I think he uses $tick/tape reading/experience to time his entries in zones that he has identified ahead of time.
  

 

Steve I would be interested in seeing any video you produce.

 

Traderunner,

 

I do not know what he does in the video, but in practice he probes with a small position and then quickly adds to make it a much larger position. I believe the theory is to determine if you have the direction right and then quickly add larger size.

 

Holding onto the losing position could work most of the time. But, there will be times when it just doesn't come back and the losses get far larger than they could have been so the trader has to weigh the benefits and risks.

 

I choose to admit I am wrong soon after a position turns red. In my mind negative equity is the best indicator that you may not have it right. I will get back in if I have to at a better or worse entry if exiting turned out to be wrong too. There are very few things you can control and one of them is how much you let out of your account at a single time.

 

MM

[TradeRunner 10]

Where does that lead? Usually when someone is intentionally trying to generate interest there is a motive involved. What's the motive? For someone who doesn't know much about trading, it does show some basic things. For example, that you can configure your screens with multiple windows in such a way to have all that information right in front of you.

 

• he is promoting his dvds
  
• he is promoting his course - although these are not run very frequently
  
• he wants to raise money for his good causes
  
• he wants to recreate the format of the poker tv programs. I doubt you would become a good poker player after just watching "High Stakes Poker" for example
  
• he likes these type of projects e.g. creating the web sites etc
  
• it is a popular request from his blog readers
  

 

 

In very short term trading, stops are just confusing, difficult to manage, and take too much time away from watching what you need to watch. My opinion.

My opinion is that this is a bad idea for people finding their feet.

 

 

That is what I'm interested in. I did see that he was using the $TICK.

In my opinion this is the difficult part to learn. After all he has been trading the ES from 10 years. Have you looked at DBPhoenix posts? He also uses $TICK and $TICK divergences to time his entries

[steve46 12]

Traderunner

 

Congratulations, you seem to have a good grasp of the benefits and the limitations of the format that Don is using. If I understand correctly, I agree with your assessment. This isn't for beginners just getting on their feet. My own system has the same limitations as would any professional setup....you have to have a basic background and some experience to call on.

 

The idea that he is a "self promoter" is just fine with me...to get somewhere in this world, if you don't promote "yourself" and your agenda, who else will? What I want to see, is that his "agenda" is a benevolent one, that benefits others. I think raising money for his charities and even for himself is just fine. Regarding the cost of his course I have the following comment;

 

I have my own experience to call on in this regard...over the years I have tried periodically to offer training to struggling traders....at no charge...what I would ask people to do, was to donate money to their favorite charity if they were successful....I found that generally speaking the folks who took me up on my offer did not succeed. In contrast, in my office I have participated in the "retraining" (providing additional training for licensed traders) and THAT was generally successful. In those circumstances, the traders were interested in improving their results...they were motivated, fully engaged in the process and willing to work on it. The success rate was virtually 100%. Human nature being what it is, I think it is clear that unless a person has a requisite background and strong motivation, it is problematic for them to succeed in this very demanding business. Clearly the student has to have their own "skin in the game" and display a willingness to take (adult) responsibility for outcomes in order to have a chance at success.

Edited March 21, 2011 by steve46

[TradeRunner 10]

Did he show the chart patterns of the overnight market rhythm? Did he show the range bound market or the series of tails? The market rhythm and the range is probably intuitive to a large degree. I'm not familiar with what a "series of tails" is.

 

Right at the start of the video he shows the overnight session. When he starts trading he switches the 2min chart to show RTH. He has a range defined on the 5min chart.

[Tradewinds 12]

In my opinion this is the difficult part to learn. After all he has been trading the ES from 10 years. Have you looked at DBPhoenix posts? He also uses $TICK and $TICK divergences to time his entries

 

The difficult things to learn might result in the biggest reward. The things that took me years to learn, I could probably teach in 30 minutes. But I don't want to teach them in 30 minutes, because it took me so long to learn them. :rofl: Why should I give away in 30 minutes what it took me years to learn? In a perfect Utopian world full of love and goodwill, I would gladly do that. But unfortunately, I'm stuck here in this world.

[TradeRunner 10]

Holding onto the losing position could work most of the time. But, there will be times when it just doesn't come back and the losses get far larger than they could have been so the trader has to weigh the benefits and risks.

 

He was long during the flash crash:

Don Miller Trading Journal: Thursday Notes - There's No Crying in Trading

Don Miller Trading Journal: The Weekend Trader - Continued Crash Autopsy

Don Miller Trading Journal: The Weekend Trader Part 3 - Learning From Tylenol

 

He has also blogged about other bad days:

Don Miller Trading Journal: Wouldn't You Know It

Don Miller Trading Journal: The Weekend Trader (Saturday Edition)

 

And this is one of my favourite entry showing a scatter graph of his trading sequences:

Don Miller Trading Journal: The Weekend Trader - The Big Picture

 

To me he comes across as being genuine guy who is interested in showing what being a trader is really like and that is pretty unique from what I have seen.

[TradeRunner 10]

The difficult things to learn might result in the biggest reward. The things that took me years to learn, I could probably teach in 30 minutes.

 

Really? I always though that it was more of an skill than something you could learn in 30 minutes. For example you could be a exceptional violinist (have spent years practising) and not get very teaching me to play it in 30 minutes.

[Tradewinds 12]

Really? I always though that it was more of an skill than something you could learn in 30 minutes. For example you could be a exceptional violinist (have spent years practising) and not get very teaching me to play it in 30 minutes.

 

Yes, you are right about the aspect of trading that you are talking about. You are talking about the ability to play the instrument. I am talking about whether the violinist has the right music.

There is a lot about trading that takes discipline and practice. That discipline and practice is really just training your brain cells to react a certain way under certain situations. What you are talking about is the ability to read music, play many different notes, in many different ways, and the physical ability to play the instrument.

What I am talking about is analogous to telling people how to read sheet music for "Mary Had a Little Lamb", a very simple tune. Explaining the notes for, "Mary Had a Little Lamb" might take half an hour. You still can't play "Mary Had a Little Lamb" on the violin from that information, but you now understand the concepts and have the sheet music to play.

I would compare the ability to trade well, with the ability to play, "Mary Had a Little Lamb" on the violin. The problem is, people don't have the right music. I really don't believe that a person needs the same musical and physical discipline as a good violinist to trade. You might need the same skills at a 12 year old playing their first tune. Of course, emotionally and psychologically, you would need to be more mature than a 12 year old to trade, but that's a different aspect of trading that I'm not talking about. What I'm saying is, if you don't have the tune on paper or in your head, then you can't play the music, no matter how good your skills are to play the instrument.

What I'm talking about is the right music. What you are talking about is the ability to play the instrument. Some people might be able to play the instrument (know the platform, understand how to enter and exit orders, be able to read charts), but the music they are playing is atrocious. It would make you scream, "Please Stop!!".