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Rande Howell

Fear Vs. Uncertainty in Trading

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What does this discussion open or close for you as a trader?

 

Trading does not come natural to the human brain. For the vast majority of traders, it has to be learned. From an evolutionary perspective, just a few short years ago we were all cavemen. In your ancestor’s world there was no reason to separate uncertainty from fear. The world was a dangerous place and if you experienced uncertainty in your dealings with your environment, there was a good chance you were facing a mortal threat. Uncertainty became glued to fear and anxiety as a survival trait. And that trait got transmitted to future generations -- long after the usefulness of glueing uncertainty and fear together.

 

Your inner caveman still lives within you as you trade. Your limbic brain (caveman’s inheritance to you) still is still watching his environment (your trading screens now) and interpreting from an evolutionary bias that locks uncertainty and fear together – rather than distinguishing them from one another. This deeply embedded trait has also been uploaded into your psychology. This is the psychology of self that trades and experiences worry and fear when you are supposed to be impartially managing risk with your trading plan.

 

Separating uncertainty from worry and fear (more primitive parts of your survival brain) – caveman – is what is required for a trader to evolve from fear based interpretations of uncertainty to risk management interpretations of uncertainty. So if you're having difficulty moving one set of psychological skills that proved okay successful in one domain of your life to success in trading, welcome -- this is typical. There is nothing "wrong" with you. But it does indicate that the "you" that your brain has organized you as needs to be changed. And that new psychological skills will need to be developed to replace your inheritance from caveman. Otherwise caveman will continue to participate in your trading. That's all.

 

The mindset for the vast majority of traders has to be developed. Particularly the management of uncertainty and the meaning that becomes embedded tin he meaning making pathways of your brain (that's your perception). This is where you will find your self limiting beliefs about yourself. If you experience hesitation as you evaluate set ups for risking capital, if you are seized with fear as you try to pull the trigger, or if your heart pounds as you enters a trade (particularly when it goes against you), you are experiencing a biological predisposition that has shaped your personal psychology to avoid uncertainty -- that's your caveman trading along side of you, perhaps even taking over. It is the mindset that you take into uncertainty (that's trading) determines the probability of success.

 

Evolutionary and psychological bias, in the vast majority of traders, will have to be examined and changed for this to occur. It takes emotional labor, and that's the price for re-development of the self designed for trading. It's a great personal development adventure. Traders often invest years in learning to know the self and developing a psyhology that trades effectively. This process is unavoidable.

 

Where are you in the evolution of this process?

 

Rande Howell

Edited by Rande Howell

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without uncertainty there is no opportunity.

by planning and understanding there can be opportunity from uncertainty.

This helps reduce the fear....but not eliminate it.

Fear, can also be a good thing. Not of uncertainty, but fear of being unprepared, fear of betting the house and blowing up.

 

Luckily I have always been conservative enough to respect the fear, but also to embrace the uncertainty.

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build a mechanical trading system to eliminate fear and hope, and to be free of emotions in the trade.

overbalance of time, and imbalance of order or chaos are the only things too concentrate on to understand the cause,

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without uncertainty there is no opportunity.

by planning and understanding there can be opportunity from uncertainty.

This helps reduce the fear....but not eliminate it.

Fear, can also be a good thing. Not of uncertainty, but fear of being unprepared, fear of betting the house and blowing up.

 

Luckily I have always been conservative enough to respect the fear, but also to embrace the uncertainty.

 

It is the mindset that enters the uncertainty that creates either opportunity or negative fortune. It is in the eye of the beholder. I believe that what you refer to as "respect the fear" is called vigilance or reverence -- both essential emotions to deal with uncertainty.

Rande

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The first thought that opened for me was some material from Kenneth Reid from years ago about the ‘genetic types’ of traders

“Type One Traders have a 68% chance of being wiped out;

Type Two Traders have a 27% chance of losing all their capital; and,

Type Three Traders have only a 5% chance of washing out.”

It doesn’t appear he is still using the ‘genetics’ word – maybe that lead too many into thinking the chances of change were limited...

(Rande, sorry to introduce a ‘competitor’ Trading psychology - Coaching for traders so early in this topic, but I’d bet both you guys need to be referring a certain % of your clients to each other anyway… I’m not endorsing his ‘typing’ btw. Don’t even really understand the specifics – but I do know he is getting at individuals' susceptibilities to your term, the 'caveman'…)

 

The second thought I had was how many Type Two and Type Three traders simply cannot even conceive of the tendencies and experiences of Type One traders. Forum readers generally have to infer the ‘typing’ of posters, and see through the flamings and more subtle denigrations, etc.

It might be more accurate and helpful to even say how amazing it is that each of the types has challenges in conceiving of the tendencies and experiences of the other types - limited the chances of assistance from 'higher' types and also limiting the possibilties of lower types resonating with or benefitting directly from modeling from higher types. Their whole (nervous system , etc) will simply have no concept of what to 'do' internally...

 

Finally, I thought about my own process with this uncertainty issue. Alas, my journey was one of self guided desensitization – helped along significantly by realizing and applying the importance of ‘staying power’ capitalization and proper sizing and then later in the process by learning ways to clear the ‘circuitry’/ programming between the various levels, plus gradually learning the quality of a trade isn't very dependent on the qualities and accumulation of 'confirmations' in trading systems, etc . I applaud and appreciate you for offering others ways of shortening the development curve.

Edited by zdo

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zdo

 

Interesting reflection. I don't use typing because I find it tends to pigeon holes people rather than develop their potential. After emotional regulation, I teach Jungian archetypes as dominant or under utilized aspects of the self that can be brought into awareness. This has the affect of harnessing the gifts and talents that lie within us. Intially my interest is whether the trader is fear based or impulse based in his trading.

Your desensitization comment is really on target. I actually use a process called stress inoculation as a way of shaping healthier perception while in the process of trading. It's kinda like sytematic desensitization on steriods.

Probably the most I learned in working with traders is the need for compassion and courage to harness the power of shame to reshape the psychological organization of the self that trades. To change core beliefs about the self (which you are trading), this is essential. Trading is a journey into knowing the self and changing the self. Fear is locked door that must be opened.

 

Rande Howell

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would a person who had no emotion be able to trade well? (I assume it would be like a computer if given the right rules...so yes given the right rules)

Can you teach a computer fear? (or is that just part of the money mgmt rules to help stay in the game)

Is it more important to control/regulate emotion or fear, or is it more important to suit the type of trader to the correct style of trading for them? To focus on what suits them rather than trying to remap the brain.

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would a person who had no emotion be able to trade well? (I assume it would be like a computer if given the right rules...so yes given the right rules)

Can you teach a computer fear? (or is that just part of the money mgmt rules to help stay in the game)

Is it more important to control/regulate emotion or fear, or is it more important to suit the type of trader to the correct style of trading for them? To focus on what suits them rather than trying to remap the brain.

 

The only time a person does not experience emotion is when they are dead. So I'm hoping no one tries to set up the situation that they trade without emotion. Emotions and our perception can not be separated. The trick is to trade (and think) from particular emotional states when trading. When we say we are logical, rational, or impartial, we are trading from this emotion. Rational or logical is not independent of emotion -- it is simply an emotion among other emotions. Rational is a great emotional state to solve problems from. But it would be a terrible emotion to romance from. Each emotions sets forth a kind of thinking and memory that is associated with it. Managing this relationship while trading is key. The problem is that impartiality cannot co-exist with fear. Fear, unless regulated, will block your ability to maintain impartiality in the face of uncertainty. This is why you see so many traders who will assert that they know HOW to trade, but that their emotions get in the way of their trading. Actually it is the kind of emotion that seizes thinking that is the problem -- not that they have emotions.

 

Once they know how to regulate themselves emotionally, some traders do exhibit particular kinds of trading they gravitate towards. Others practices several different kinds. The problem I have with deterministic forms of personality tests that determine the best kind of trading for a trader is that they are measuring a snap shot of where a trader's psychology is at a particular moment and applying it to a style of trading. They do not measure the potential that is possible. So they tend to pigeon hole people that simutaneously cuts off potential. Once fear is regulated, a whole new world can show up that a deterministic test would have missed. Focusing on the development of potential beyond fear opens a different range of possibilities for people. It's the fear that has to be regulated. Patience, disciple, courage, and impartiality then can be developed.

 

Rande Howell

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The only time a person does not experience emotion is when they are dead. So I'm hoping no one tries to set up the situation that they trade without emotion. Emotions and our perception can not be separated. The trick is to trade (and think) from particular emotional states when trading. When we say we are logical, rational, or impartial, we are trading from this emotion. Rational or logical is not independent of emotion -- it is simply an emotion among other emotions. Rational is a great emotional state to solve problems from. But it would be a terrible emotion to romance from. Each emotions sets forth a kind of thinking and memory that is associated with it. Managing this relationship while trading is key. The problem is that impartiality cannot co-exist with fear. Fear, unless regulated, will block your ability to maintain impartiality in the face of uncertainty. This is why you see so many traders who will assert that they know HOW to trade, but that their emotions get in the way of their trading. Actually it is the kind of emotion that seizes thinking that is the problem -- not that they have emotions.

 

Once they know how to regulate themselves emotionally, some traders do exhibit particular kinds of trading they gravitate towards. Others practices several different kinds. The problem I have with deterministic forms of personality tests that determine the best kind of trading for a trader is that they are measuring a snap shot of where a trader's psychology is at a particular moment and applying it to a style of trading. They do not measure the potential that is possible. So they tend to pigeon hole people that simutaneously cuts off potential. Once fear is regulated, a whole new world can show up that a deterministic test would have missed. Focusing on the development of potential beyond fear opens a different range of possibilities for people. It's the fear that has to be regulated. Patience, disciple, courage, and impartiality then can be developed.

 

Rande Howell

 

Thats true it is fear and the only answer to that is knowlegde. Because if someone knows why would he fear ? Men have been searching for the answers and the wisdom to the markets for known years. Thats why I no longer consider myself a trader, and I am now a researcher and discover of all knowlegde. By far the contartians have done the best in this business while the rest were herds.

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Fear is 9/10ths of the excitement of opening a trade for me

 

Could you help me understand this more? For you, how does fear transform itself into excitement? And how does the excitement interact with the trade?

Rande Howell

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Once fear is regulated, a whole new world can show up that a deterministic test would have missed. Focusing on the development of potential beyond fear opens a different range of possibilities for people. It's the fear that has to be regulated. Patience, disciple, courage, and impartiality then can be developed.

 

Rande Howell

 

So fear in your opinion is easier to regulate than trying to determine a persons personality/perfect trading style?

I agree with the whole pigeon holing crap shoot. Thats why trading is a never ending pursuit, people change. Yet surely its easier to try and go with the flow, rather than trying to force a square peg into a round hole.

 

Also with the idea of eliminating emotion.....using a computer system will still provide the emotion. Closing the garage door and coming back in 5 years time to a massive account balance or a bust will still cause emotion....unless you are dead.

 

Do you have a complete list of the fears traders have....and how they might be overcome?

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So fear in your opinion is easier to regulate than trying to determine a persons personality/perfect trading style?

I agree with the whole pigeon holing crap shoot. Thats why trading is a never ending pursuit, people change. Yet surely its easier to try and go with the flow, rather than trying to force a square peg into a round hole.

 

Also with the idea of eliminating emotion.....using a computer system will still provide the emotion. Closing the garage door and coming back in 5 years time to a massive account balance or a bust will still cause emotion....unless you are dead.

 

Do you have a complete list of the fears traders have....and how they might be overcome?

 

Siuya

 

I am saying that fear needs to be managed before you start experimenting with trading style. A much better informed decision happens this way. I know traders who scalp before they can't manage fear, impulse, or hyperactivity in their current organization of the self. They are not scalping before it fits their temperment -- rather it is the only way they know to manage their fear. When taught regulation, they can be much better observer of the self and can decide whether this fast paced trading style fits with their temperment and capacity to maintain focus for longer periods of time (hyperactivity). So it's both/and. I also work with a trader that, after he no longer needed to prove himself trading, found that he was more of a guerilla or swing trader than the intra day trader he had tested as a year before. As they get to know themselves better, and dispelled the fear that limited them, they were able to alaign themselves to a trading stype that suited them.

 

Emotion and the meaning of self that becomes attached to the emotion is engine of transformation. It is not to be avoided. It is our call to develop the skills and tools that give us the capacity to work wtih our emotions that is critical.

 

I break fear into 9 subcategories. It is important to understand the meaning that becomes attached to the fear -- that is what I call owning your fear. Until you can name the fear, it will own you. It's a little to much to write about here. In one of the articles on my website, I go over these subcategories. I also offer a free webnar once a month that outlines these fears labeled as roadblocks and how to overcome them.

 

Does this answer your question well enough?

 

Rande Howell

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""I am saying that fear needs to be managed before you start experimenting with trading style.""

 

doesn't this sort of assume that everyone will start out as a scalper..... surely different people have different personality traits, and different fears.

Some people have a fear of pulling the trigger, some people fear missing out, some fear giving back a winning position. Not everyone is suited to a scalping as you say, but from what I am reading into it, while you dont like to pigeon hole people into characteristics, there is an assumption that everyone starts out as a scalper of sorts or at least with a similar trading style.

That may be true in the day trading sphere i guess.

Which comes first the chicken or the egg?

 

(I'm not trying to be difficult, just feeling like a discussion :))

and yes, in terms of the types of fears, the website looks interesting

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Siuya

 

I am saying that fear needs to be managed before you start experimenting with trading style. A much better informed decision happens this way. I know traders who scalp before they can't manage fear, impulse, or hyperactivity in their current organization of the self. They are not scalping before it fits their temperment -- rather it is the only way they know to manage their fear. When taught regulation, they can be much better observer of the self and can decide whether this fast paced trading style fits with their temperment and capacity to maintain focus for longer periods of time (hyperactivity). So it's both/and. I also work with a trader that, after he no longer needed to prove himself trading, found that he was more of a guerilla or swing trader than the intra day trader he had tested as a year before. As they get to know themselves better, and dispelled the fear that limited them, they were able to alaign themselves to a trading stype that suited them.

 

Emotion and the meaning of self that becomes attached to the emotion is engine of transformation. It is not to be avoided. It is our call to develop the skills and tools that give us the capacity to work wtih our emotions that is critical.

 

I break fear into 9 subcategories. It is important to understand the meaning that becomes attached to the fear -- that is what I call owning your fear. Until you can name the fear, it will own you. It's a little to much to write about here. In one of the articles on my website, I go over these subcategories. I also offer a free webnar once a month that outlines these fears labeled as roadblocks and how to overcome them.

 

Does this answer your question well enough?

 

Rande Howell

 

Rande,

 

Would you say it is a fair statement that if someone is experiencing fear in trading, no matter what the category of fear they have, that they simply do not want the outcome?

Put another way: someone who has a trade plan, who has the set ups, who has the capital, and simply cannot perform because of fear. Would you say that whatever their fear is, it is greater than their desire for the outcome?

 

Even if you remotely agree, then could another approach be to increase the persons desire for the outcome rather than working on the fear?

 

 

MM

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Could you help me understand this more? For you, how does fear transform itself into excitement? And how does the excitement interact with the trade?

Rande Howell

 

Well for me, a trade is placed after I weigh up all the pros and cons. Whilst I try to be fairly certain of my position at the time, there is also a certain fear that my trade could be involved in ta "next shoe to fall" scenario. I feel excited when I realise I'm ready to place the trade and click "buy"

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Rande,

 

Would you say it is a fair statement that if someone is experiencing fear in trading, no matter what the category of fear they have, that they simply do not want the outcome?

Put another way: someone who has a trade plan, who has the set ups, who has the capital, and simply cannot perform because of fear. Would you say that whatever their fear is, it is greater than their desire for the outcome?

 

Even if you remotely agree, then could another approach be to increase the persons desire for the outcome rather than working on the fear?

 

 

MM

 

MM -- This is an interesting query. When state of mind is being influenced by fear, it's not that they do not want the desired outcome -- it is more like that fear, and its nature, hijacks the brain/mind of the trader to be able to act from a state of mind that allows him to risk uncertainty of the outcome -- which is essential in trading. Either through the glitch of evolutionary programming or through the development of meaning during the brain's formative stages, fear and uncertainty become a fused interpretation of risk. Fear will allows stop potential in its tracks. This association has to be de-constructed for the trader to begin to think from a probabilities state of mind rather than a survival state of mind. Until this happens, fear overwhelms all the preparation of the trader in the trade. It's not so much that the fear is greater than the desire for outcome -- it is more like the limbic brain's response to threat as fear simply renders the trader's higher order thinking inoperable.

 

The trader must have desire. But he has to be able to act on that desire from a higher functioning state of mind. The Army trains its soldiers in simulated battle conditions because they want to train the brain to think clearly in the midst of the chaos of war (uncertainty to a trader). They mold the brain/mind to be able to do this very intentionally. It is at this moment that a soldier's desire to perform well in the uncertainty of battle becomes a possibility. Desire, by itself, is never enough. I've never met a trader who didn't have the desire to trade well. But I've met many who are not equipped emotionally or psychologically to perform in this arena.

 

Rande Howell

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doesn't this sort of assume that everyone will start out as a scalper..Not everyone is suited to a scalping as you say, but from what I am reading into it, while you dont like to pigeon hole people into characteristics, there is an assumption that everyone starts out as a scalper of sorts or at least with a similar trading style.

That may be true in the day trading sphere i guess.

Which comes first the chicken or the egg?

 

(I'm not trying to be difficult, just feeling like a discussion :))

and yes, in terms of the types of fears, the website looks interesting

 

This is not the intent of my response. I used scalping as an example as I use an intra-day trader in the next line to demonstrate a different set of parameters. I make no assumption that "everyone starts out as a scalper". Traders come to the game from different histories, different termperments, and different motivations. The common denominator is that the brain/mind is biologically built around survival. And survival is organized around fear. Human beings have the option to transend biologically driven fear. We are the ones that can actually tease apart the hardwired association between fear and uncertainty. And trading is the perfect environment for this development to occur.

 

If you are going to develop as a successful trader, you will have to separate these two building blocks of cognition apart. And a probabilies mindset accepts risk as part of the game. When this mindset has been achieved that allows you to recognize that (with your methodology) you have probability on your side and you can let go of fear (there's no saber tooth tiger staulking you), then you can trade from a mindset that lets go of outcome. This is a transendit moment. You are not gambling. Probability is on your side. You are calm, detached, and confident. What a great way to develop a belief system that brings hope into the world.

 

Rande Howell

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Rande,

 

Would you say it is a fair statement that if someone is experiencing fear in trading, no matter what the category of fear they have, that they simply do not want the outcome?

Put another way: someone who has a trade plan, who has the set ups, who has the capital, and simply cannot perform because of fear. Would you say that whatever their fear is, it is greater than their desire for the outcome?

 

Even if you remotely agree, then could another approach be to increase the persons desire for the outcome rather than working on the fear? MM

 

Excellent question, Mighty Mouse - and one which provokes thought - thank you. In the past I have experienced raw fear in trading - so much so that the anxiety of taking a severe loss caused me to sweat profusely. I didn't like that one bit, and it taught me to stick to risk management principles.

 

Even today - I do not claim to have overcome this fear - but I would like to very much. As late as 12 hours ago, I was short the AUDUSD, and experienced a small pullback rally. Instead of using the pullback as an opportunity for another strategic entry in the short direction, I procrastinated, and felt the anxiety rising. In fact, all the old ghosts of failed setups were knocking on my door - I am not happy to admit that, but do so unashamedly.

 

History shows the AUDUSD indeed fell off the table, and my trade was secure and went on to make 70 pips before stalling. In fact the trade could have made another 40 pips for me. But it stalled, and I closed early. I took what I thought the market was offering at the time. I protected what I had, before the price activity took my profits back. Nothing wrong there.

 

But increasing my desire for the outcome might only have served to increase my degree of desperation and anxiety - both are qualities with which I have struggled to be rid, in my trading.

 

However, I feel that if my desire to achieve an outcome is strong enough, then it behoves me to prepare diligently and operate consistently to achieve that outcome. But what if all that diligent preparation failed to achieve the outcome - where does that leave me emotionally?

 

So I have to go with an approach that reduces anxiety, and offers reassurance in the face of a failed setup. This can certainly be achieved with understanding and applying an edge. For me, it is the loss of control that spooks me, and I don't like that feeling one bit.

 

But I suspect a better approach might be to follow what Rande is saying:

 

Emotion and the meaning of self that becomes attached to the emotion is engine of transformation. It is not to be avoided. It is our call to develop the skills and tools that give us the capacity to work with our emotions that is critical.
I find that my performance somehow defines the "me" in my psyche ... perhaps it is the "id" - perhaps the inhibitory effect of an active Superego - I am not well-enough apprised of the subject to be able to say. But while I still have the anxiety of placing myself and my performance on the line with each trade, I am never going to rid myself of that anxiety and fear.

 

My coping mechanism therefore, to this point, has been to develop a strategy and a method that has a high probability of reaching my desired targets. The longer I trade in terms of weeks and months, the less this fear strikes me as I write up another failed trade. But I find that I do not equally reward myself for a successful trade.

 

Why is that?

Why do I put more weight on the negative than on the positive aspects of my trading?

 

The common denominator is that the brain/mind is biologically built around survival. And survival is organized around fear. Human beings have the option to transcend biologically driven fear. We are the ones that can actually tease apart the hardwired association between fear and uncertainty. And trading is the perfect environment for this development to occur.

 

If you are going to develop as a successful trader, you will have to separate these two building blocks of cognition apart. And a probabilities mindset accepts risk as part of the game. When this mindset has been achieved that allows you to recognize that (with your methodology) you have probability on your side and you can let go of fear (there's no saber tooth tiger stalking you), then you can trade from a mindset that lets go of outcome.

 

This is a transcendent moment.

You are not gambling.

Probability is on your side.

You are calm, detached, and confident.

What a great way to develop a belief system that brings hope into the world. Rande Howell

 

Rande - I want to believe that ... you are calm, detached, and confident ... but this has not been my experience.

 

So what is the next step?

Because quite frankly I want to be trading a good setup with an equally good state of mind.

 

Success is not enough.

 

Peace ... ease ... of mind MUST also be the bedfellows of success.

 

Footnote - I am still getting through much of the material you have written on this site, and on your website - thank you for making the material available. I am sure there is a profitable journey here somewhere! I am now one of your students.

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Why do I put more weight on the negative than on the positive aspects of my trading?

 

 

 

Rande - I want to believe that ... you are calm, detached, and confident ... but this has not been my experience.

 

So what is the next step?

Because quite frankly I want to be trading a good setup with an equally good state of mind.

 

Success is not enough.

 

Peace ... ease ... of mind MUST also be the bedfellows of success.

 

Footnote - I am still getting through much of the material you have written on this site, and on your website - thank you for making the material available. I am sure there is a profitable journey here somewhere! I am now one of your students.

 

First, the reason you have a bias to focus on the negative rather than the positive is biological in nature, compounded by your adapted psychology. That is how we survived so well -- by negatively assessing the environment because it was a dangerous place. It's why the news is only newsworthy when it is negative. Our attention is drawn to be aware of the negative.

 

This is a very interesting question about the management of emotional state and performance. I will be posting to my blog on TL on Monday actual correspondence with a client of mine who has moved from trading NOT TO LOSE to trading from a calm, detached, confident state of mind (what I call a trader's state of mind). This is something he developed with emotional labor. Part of his discussion may seem a foreign to some of you because the dialog will be using some of my jardon that I use in my higher level training. It will address exactly the inquery you have here.

 

Fundamentally, trading is life on steriods. The difference between the life you have in trading and the life you lead in your ordinary world is that the very psychological demons that you can successfully avoided dealing with in your ordinary world come staulking you in your trading world -- hence trading is life on steriods.

 

Rande Howell

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Uncertainty goes hand in hand with motivation and it is the level of motivation that represents the "trade drive". If a trader is uncertain than his abilities look uncertain. Facial expressions and hand gestures are the most common indicators which show uncertainty.

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Uncertainty goes hand in hand with motivation and it is the level of motivation that represents the "trade drive". If a trader is uncertain than his abilities look uncertain. Facial expressions and hand gestures are the most common indicators which show uncertainty.

 

Maybe the trader is trying to make you think he is uncertain.

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. . .could another approach be to increase the persons desire for the outcome rather than working on the fear? MM

 

I've thought about this myself, and I think it's a good point. My question is: Can you increase the desire without addressing the fear? Or does a person need to do both at the same time? Or do they need to address the fear first? Or something else.

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I've thought about this myself, and I think it's a good point. My question is: Can you increase the desire without addressing the fear? Or does a person need to do both at the same time? Or do they need to address the fear first? Or something else.

 

You only think about fear if you are comfortable. If you are hungry or greedy enough, you will ignore the fear.

 

If you were walking along a path and you saw horse dung, you may or may not notice that there is undigested corn in it. The thought of eating the corn wouldn't even cross your mind.However, if you were starving enough, you would examine it closely hoping to find the corn so that you can eat it. Comfort and Hunger

 

When you have enough and are no longer hungry, then you need to become greedy. If you don't, the market will take your fat and happy ass and make it hungry again.

 

 

MM

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You only think about fear if you are comfortable. If you are hungry or greedy enough, you will ignore the fear.

 

When you have enough and are no longer hungry, then you need to become greedy. If you don't, the market will take your fat and happy ass and make it hungry again. MM

 

What you are stating is true, . . . but if there is a way, I'd like to step out of the cycle of fear and greed. Both motivations seem flawed, and ultimately destructive. Again, what you are saying is true, and greed does work. But how long does greed work, and what is the final outcome on me as a person. I'd like to try to avoid that road.

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    • Date: 22nd November 2024.   BTC flirts with $100K, Stocks higher, Eurozone PMI signals recession risk.   Asia & European Sessions:   Geopolitical risks are back in the spotlight on fears of escalation in the Ukraine-Russia after Russia reportedly used a new ICBM to retaliate against Ukraine’s use of US and UK made missiles to attack inside Russia. The markets continue to assess the election results as President-elect Trump fills in his cabinet choices, with the key Treasury Secretary spot still open. The Fed’s rate path continues to be debated with a -25 bp December cut seen as 50-50. Earnings season is coming to an end after mixed reports, though AI remains a major driver. Profit taking and rebalancing into year-end are adding to gyrations too. Wall Street rallied, led by the Dow’s 1.06% broadbased pop. The S&P500 advanced 0.53% and the NASDAQ inched up 0.03%. Asian stocks rose after  Nvidia’s rally. Nikkei added 1% to 38,415.32 after the Tokyo inflation data slowed to 2.3% in October from 2.5% in the prior month, reaching its lowest level since January. The rally was also supported by chip-related stocks tracked Nvidia. Overnight-indexed swaps indicate that it’s certain the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will cut its policy rate by 50 basis points on Nov. 27, with a 22% chance of a 75 basis points reduction. European stocks futures climbed even though German Q3 GDP growth revised down to 0.1% q/q from the 0.2% q/q reported initially. Cryptocurrency market has gained approximately $1 trillion since Trump’s victory in the Nov. 5 election. Recent announcement for the SEC boosted cryptos. Chair Gary Gensler will step down on January 20, the day Trump is set to be inaugurated. Gensler has pushed for more protections for crypto investors. MicroStrategy Inc.’s plans to accelerate purchases of the token, and the debut of options on US Bitcoin ETFs also support this rally. Trump’s transition team has begun discussions on the possibility of creating a new White House position focused on digital asset policy.     Financial Markets Performance: The US Dollar recovered overnight and closed at 107.00. Bitcoin currently at 99,300,  flirting with a run toward the 100,000 level. The EURUSD drifts below 1.05, the GBPUSD dips to June’s bottom at 1.2570, while USDJPY rebounded to 154.94. The AUDNZD spiked to 2-year highs amid speculation the RBNZ will cut the official cash rate by more than 50 bps next week. Oil surged 2.12% to $70.46. Gold spiked to 2,697 after escalation alerts between Russia and Ukraine. Heightened geopolitical tensions drove investors toward safe-haven assets. Gold has surged by 30% this year. Haven demand balanced out the pressure from a strong USD following mixed US labor data. Silver rose 0.9% to 31.38, while palladium increased by 0.9% to 1,040.85 per ounce. Platinum remained unchanged. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • A few trending stocks at support BAM MNKD RBBN at https://stockconsultant.com/?MNKD
    • BMBL Bumble stock watch, pull back to 7.94 support area with high trade quality at https://stockconsultant.com/?BMBL
    • LUMN Lumen Technologies stock watch, pull back to 7.43 support area with bullish indicators at https://stockconsultant.com/?LUMN
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