Ask Me About Poker

[russellhq 10]

Hi UB, I used to play a lot of poker online and did quite a lot of research into the subject. I wonder if you can answer a question I have on market trading vs poker playing.

 

In poker (NL Texas Holdem), the win rate standard deviation (variance) is an order of magnitude higher than the win rate, this leads to the possibility of long losing runs even for sucessfull poker players. My question is, how does the variance in trading compare to that of poker e.g. BB/100 hands vs $won/trade and do traders track their win rate standard deviation?

[UrmaBlume 10]

Hi UB, I used to play a lot of poker online and did quite a lot of research into the subject. I wonder if you can answer a question I have on market trading vs poker playing.In poker (NL Texas Holdem), the win rate standard deviation (variance) is an order of magnitude higher than the win rate, this leads to the possibility of long losing runs even for sucessfull poker players. My question is, how does the variance in trading compare to that of poker e.g. BB/100 hands vs $won/trade and do traders track their win rate standard deviation?

 

What a lot of buschwa. There is no such thing as an absolute win rate for either poker or the markets. Both the win rate and the variance in both depend on the individual's game not the game itself - duh.

 

UrmaBlume

[russellhq 10]

Hi UB, I was referring to the player and not the game itself. In Poker, only after a large number of hands 100k plus can a player have a high degree of confidence that their winning status is down to skill and not luck. This is primarilly down to the high variance in the game.

 

I was wondering how this correlated to market trading. For example, do you keep a record of your $won per trade and evaluate the standard deviation of your data set?

[UrmaBlume 10]

Hi UB, I was referring to the player and not the game itself. In Poker, only after a large number of hands 100k plus can a player have a high degree of confidence that their winning status is down to skill and not luck. This is primarilly down to the high variance in the game.I was wondering how this correlated to market trading. For example, do you keep a record of your $won per trade and evaluate the standard deviation of your data set?

 

Whether it's poker of the markets it is impossible to have an idea of either expectation or variance without an adequate sample space.

 

In trading that sample space has nothing to do with time, it has to do with the number of transactions just like in poker where it has to do with the number of hands.

 

Most all traders are accutely aware of such statistics as win/rate, expectation and drawdown/variance.

 

Just to give you an idea of the stats available online after every trade or during any number of trades or during any time period, most trading software makes online, real-time, in depth analysis of one's trades instantly avialable and even the most basic systems include the fields shown below:

 

 

 

 

UrmaBlume

[clmacdougall 11]

Pat, if you don't mind me asking, what is the Canadian document on the lower right of your picture. Having run a business here in Canada your document looks oddly familiar to ones I've received. Maybe it's not Canadian at all, just thought I'd ask.

Thanks

[UrmaBlume 10]

Pat, if you don't mind me asking, what is the Canadian document on the lower right of your picture. Having run a business here in Canada your document looks oddly familiar to ones I've received. Maybe it's not Canadian at all, just thought I'd ask.

Thanks

 

MacDougal,

 

I am not sure which document or picutre you are talking about or even which post.

 

If you are referring to the list of fields in the post above - that is the output of one of the trade analysis routines in TradeStation.

 

cheers

 

UB

[clmacdougall 11]

Sorry about that. It's your picture in post # 49 of this thread. Lower right hand document which is framed.

[UrmaBlume 10]

Pat, if you don't mind me asking, what is the Canadian document on the lower right of your picture. Having run a business here in Canada your document looks oddly familiar to ones I've received. Maybe it's not Canadian at all, just thought I'd ask.

Thanks

 

Wow, what eyes. Yes indeed it is a Canadian document.

[clmacdougall 11]

So, are you somehow licensed to work in Canada or are you having some sort of resident status? I ask only because you are displaying it with pride and of course I'm proud of my country!!

[UrmaBlume 10]

So, are you somehow licensed to work in Canada or are you having some sort of resident status? I ask only because you are displaying it with pride and of course I'm proud of my country!!

 

The document is very old and comes from the days when I did some work with companies trading on the old VSE.

 

During those days I spent considerable time in Vancouver and to this day it is my favorite city in North America.

 

The document is on my wall because it is associated with a very funny story that is best not told in public.

 

cheers

 

UrmaBlume

[clmacdougall 11]

Gotcha Pat, thanks!! Some things are best left unsaid !

[UrmaBlume 10]

Gotcha Pat, thanks!! Some things are best left unsaid !

 

Thanks. Maybe one day if I am lucky enough to visit the Maritimes we could have a beer and I will tell you the tale.

 

cheers

[MadMarketScientist 11]

Full Tilt Poker Accused Of Stealing $440 Million Of Players' Winnings In Giant "Ponzi Scheme"

 

Read more: POKER: Full Tilt Poker Accused Of Stealing Winnings In "Ponzi Scheme"

 

Wow who say this coming? I wonder if the other sites are as well?

 

MMS

[brownsfan019 17]

Full Tilt Poker Accused Of Stealing $440 Million Of Players' Winnings In Giant "Ponzi Scheme"

 

Read more: POKER: Full Tilt Poker Accused Of Stealing Winnings In "Ponzi Scheme"

 

Wow who say this coming? I wonder if the other sites are as well?

 

MMS

 

That is crazy MMS. Should be interesting to see if it sticks and is true. If it's true, some well-known names being accused in that.

 

As a side note, Cleveland finally getting a casino so I may be playing poker more than ever before!