Real Time - False Signals

[v101 10]

I have been seeking feedback from programmers if there are any "other" ways to overcome the issue of programming with Multi-Time Frames.

 

An issue I have is when you program an indicator to use real time data and also process data real-time, what happens is the signals may look valid based on the real time criteria at that particular moment in time....

 

But then before the higher time frame is actually closed, price can go opposite to your intended signal(s) and then if you reload the chart, your indicator plot, or signal goes away. We call these phantom triggers, and repainting.

 

 

So there are a few ways to deal with this, and each programming method introduces some cons.

 

The method would be to force the indicator to wait for a BAR CLOSE on the higher time frame, This results in valid signals being generated, but could lead to late signals, due to causing the indicator to WAIT for the CLOSE before it calculates the entry.

 

So my question is for those that are using indicators based on Multi-Time Frame, is how do you overcome these issues, if you want your indicators to not repaint signals, and not give phantom triggers?

 

Any ideas, or recent developments in this area are appreciated.

[Tams 20]

there are a few philosophical questions to ponder before you can go further

 

1. Waiting for bar close

 

you mention " late signals".

 

how late?

how disadvantaged are you by waiting for bar close?

what is your profit projection?

what is the percentage of "perceived profit" lost due to the wait ???

is your mother going to disown you because you have missed a portion of the profit?

 

what other "profits" have you missed other than the late signal?

what is the percentage of this late signal induced "loss profit" in relation to ALL the other missed opportunities?

 

 

2. false signals

 

if a signal was triggered intrabar,

but the signal was nolonger there at EOB,

is that still a signal?

was the trigger valid ????

 

if the signal should not have been there in the first place,

or, if a momentary "signal" that could never have produced any meaningful profit,

why spend time on it NOW?

[v101 10]

Waiting for bar close, results in late entry into trades.

But often times when I review my signals from real-time, and then enable the bar close feature, the signals shift due to what we already know about basing the decision on the forced close.

 

I dont get penalized other than getting into the trade a little later than I'd like when I use the forced close option.

 

I wanted to just get some ideas from other programmers, who have thought of some different ways to get around this issue. But I think if anyone basis the decisions on real - time, that they will have this issue, as real time is real time. and waiting for a CLOSE, basis the decision on the historical close, resulting in valid signals, and no false signals.

 

Good point though, just use the forced close option, and move on.

[v101 10]

how late?

Sometimes a bar or 2 bars.

 

how disadvantaged are you by waiting for bar close?

 

Not really disadvantaged, just later entry that I'd like...

 

what is your profit projection?

 

what is the percentage of "perceived profit" lost due to the wait ???

There is a difference, I'd have to go back and review my back-testing results to determine exactly what the % difference is.

 

is your mother going to disown you because you have missed a portion of the profit?

 

:haha: :haha: Probably not..

 

what other "profits" have you missed other than the late signal?

 

Profits are profits!

 

what is the percentage of this late signal induced "loss profit" in relation to ALL the other missed opportunities?

 

 

2. false signals

 

if a signal was triggered intrabar,

but the signal was nolonger there at EOB,

is that still a signal?

was the trigger valid ????

 

If a false signal is plotted, then NO its not a valid trigger, these are what I am trying to avoid.

 

if the signal should not have been there in the first place,

or, if a momentary "signal" that could never have produced any meaningful profit,

why spend time on it NOW?

[Tams 20]

...

what other "profits" have you missed other than the late signal?

 

Profits are profits!

 

what is the percentage of this late signal induced "loss profit" in relation to ALL the other missed opportunities?

 

sure profits are profits...

 

but do you have the ability to buy at the lowest tick and sell at the highest tick at EVERY oscillation of the market during the day?

 

if not, then you are MISSING out on some of the profits.

why don't you cry over those "missed" profits ???

 

the fact is, nobody can take ALL the profit that are made available by the market

you can only take a portion of the total

some can take more

some can only take a bit

 

look for the train that is coming,

not the train that you missed.

Edited January 11, 2011 by Tams

[Tams 20]

how late?

Sometimes a bar or 2 bars.

...

 

how many bars in the run?

 

10 bars?

and you missed 2?

 

big deal

 

 

but if there's only 3 bars in the run,

and you missed 2,

did you really missed anything?

 

 

trading is a philosophy

[aaa 10]

Hi v101

 

trading is a philosophy

TAMS gives interesting "Greek" questions ;=)

 

about blinking signal

 

if Condition1 then

PlotPaintBar( Low, High, "Your.Indic", Up.Color, default, 10 )

else if Condition2 then

PlotPaintBar( Low, High, "Your.Indic", Dn.Color, default, 10 )

Else Begin

NoPlot(1); // blinking

End;

[BlowFish 10]

It's a philosophical issue rather than a programming issue. Wait for HTF close or don't the choice is yours. Use a slightly shorter period for the HTF is a possibility. It's the age old trade off, enter on trigger or wait for confirmation.

[electroniclocal 10]

The solution is not to use two timeframes but to use an extra version of your indicators in the main timeframe that proxy what the indicator would show in the secondary timeframe. For example, I use 33 EMA as a central part of my methodology and I also use a 99 EMA that provides, by proxy, the infor of a higher TF.