Is Trading Just a Sort of Gambling?

[salma 10]

Hi all

I began trading recently as trainee. I was trying to make some plan for me on how to choose a stock and how to create rules. I include fundamental analysis (such as following news, market announcements, industrial news and business frames, financial statements analysis etc.) and technical analysis as well.

Sometimes I just don’t see any confirmation of received information. Sometimes I just feel lost and don’t understand what is going on :crap:

People around me keep telling that it’s just a sort of gambling. As I don’t like gambling at all I feel lost even more.

Can anybody please help me with this point?

[UrmaBlume 10]

Hi all :)I began trading recently as trainee. I was trying to make some plan for me on how to choose a stock and how to create rules. I include fundamental analysis (such as following news, market announcements, industrial news and business frames, financial statements analysis etc.) and technical analysis as well.

Sometimes I just don’t see any confirmation of received information. Sometimes I just feel lost and don’t understand what is going on :crap:People around me keep telling that it’s just a sort of gambling. As I don’t like gambling at all I feel lost even more.

Can anybody please help me with this point?

 

If you start a new business there is risk so you are taking a gamble. If you start a new relationship there is an emotional risk so it is emotional gambling. For a scientist to put forth a new concept he gambles with his reputation.

 

This applies all the way down to what we chose for dinner. Without risk, gambling, there is not much life for anyone.

 

"Information = Equity"

 

The great mitigators of any gamble are understanding and learning. In your case you are a beginner with not much understanding of either the markets or how to trade them so your risk is huge in a world where less than 5% know success - you are taking a bigger gamble than someone who is both knowledgeable and experienced.

 

Learn more and risk less. Learn nothing, risk nothing and you might as well stop breathing.

 

UB

[SIUYA 11]

I agree with UB

 

Basically life is a gamble.

 

When it comes to trading think about this.....what other pursuit can you dictate the odds, attempt to put them in your favour, get great scalability with these odds, in a liquid market, low costs and low barriers to entry.

Treat your trading like a business and you will see it as less of a gamble.

[Patuca 13]

Hi all

I began trading recently as trainee. I was trying to make some plan for me on how to choose a stock and how to create rules. I include fundamental analysis (such as following news, market announcements, industrial news and business frames, financial statements analysis etc.) and technical analysis as well.

Sometimes I just don’t see any confirmation of received information. Sometimes I just feel lost and don’t understand what is going on :crap:

People around me keep telling that it’s just a sort of gambling. As I don’t like gambling at all I feel lost even more.

Can anybody please help me with this point?

When you sit down to eat a scrambled egg sandwich you are taking a gamble. You could choke to death half way thru and never finish the sandwich. When you get in you car to ride to town you are taking a gamble. When you get married....well that is a BIG one....Most all all of life is a gamble. The way I see it it takes skill to trade. It takes practically none to buy a lottery ticket. So there is your difference. Happy gambling..I mean trading.....

[brownsfan019 17]

Trading can be gambling or it can be a business - depends how you approach it.

 

Just like there are professional poker players, there are also very casual players that go to the tables with nothing more than a prayer.

[salma 10]

Thank you very much for all your replies

 

Learn more and risk less. Learn nothing, risk nothing and you might as well stop breathing.

 

Yes sure. I got the point and I agree. Life is risky

I mean I'm trying to take it as business, to get maximum information, to learn and apply my knowledge. I'm beginner so I think it's ok that I don't make millions from the first trade. Isn't it?

I'm just confused when people around me tell "Hey girl relax. Nothing is gonna help you in that gambling. It' just about luck"

 

When it comes to trading think about this.....what other pursuit can you dictate the odds, attempt to put them in your favour, get great scalability with these odds, in a liquid market, low costs and low barriers to entry.

There is much to think about.

 

When you get married....well that is a BIG one......

:haha: yeah great point! :rofl:

 

Trading can be gambling or it can be a business - depends how you approach it.

Yes, I would prefer to take it as business. Business is risky and that's ok.

I guess my next question will be what is the correct approach?

 

 

Thank you once again.

regards.

[SIUYA 11]

dont underestimate the importance of luck - and remember that luck is usually something you can also put in your favour

[salma 10]

dont underestimate the importance of luck - and remember that luck is usually something you can also put in your favour

 

I guess I don't know how to put luck in my favour

[Oldwolf 10]

dont underestimate the importance of luck - and remember that luck is usually something you can also put in your favour

 

Luck smiles to the winner. There is always factor X which make strong impact. No metter how good you are in trading, how good you strategy, EA and Broker! You always need some LUCK!

[SIUYA 11]

I guess I don't know how to put luck in my favour

 

its generally all that often spouted rubbish about the power of positive thinking etc;

For me its all the same, no matter how you want to call it/market it...... if you focus, think rationally and positively about things, learn from mistakes, plan and dont blame the world for everything, accept responsibility, avoid false hope (like winning at the poker machines) and generally learn to participate in things from a positive and constructive point of view.... soon you will be lucky, its amazing how it seems to work that way.

Now people will package this and sell it off in a course.

 

Now this is completely different luck to the purely statistical viewpoint of buying lottery tickets. (or is it???, as you still need to participate with a dose of reality and not false hope)

 

Amazing considering the poor responses to the current contest MMS is trying to run to pick the market closes, and very few want to participate in a free trade. So tell me, is it luck when you dont win and you dont particpate positively.

[salma 10]

Thank you all for your time.

 

Luck smiles to the winner. There is always factor X which make strong impact. No metter how good you are in trading, how good you strategy, EA and Broker! You always need some LUCK!

sure! like in everything in life.

 

 

its generally all that often spouted rubbish about the power of positive thinking etc;

For me its all the same, no matter how you want to call it/market it...... if you focus, think rationally and positively about things, learn from mistakes, plan and dont blame the world for everything, accept responsibility, avoid false hope (like winning at the poker machines) and generally learn to participate in things from a positive and constructive point of view.... soon you will be lucky, its amazing how it seems to work that way.

Now people will package this and sell it off in a course.

 

Now this is completely different luck to the purely statistical viewpoint of buying lottery tickets. (or is it???, as you still need to participate with a dose of reality and not false hope)

 

Amazing considering the poor responses to the current contest MMS is trying to run to pick the market closes, and very few want to participate in a free trade. So tell me, is it luck when you dont win and you dont particpate positively.

 

Thank you. I got the idea. And I guess you're totally right. Positive thinking means a lot in everything we do in our life.

Do your best and keep it positive.

Thank you. I find this advice very usefull.

[zupcon 10]

Positive thinking means a lot in everything we do in our life.

 

Positive thinking will not help you in the slightest. It will completely destroy you.

 

In this game you need industrial quantities of objectivity and sceptisism.

 

Luck is important, never ever underestimate the power of luck. When you are lucky, learn to recognise that you are lucky and capitalise on it. When you are unlucky, learn to recognise it, and do something about it.

 

Develop that attitude and you can literally make money tossing coins for entry.

[plungee 10]

Gee, Salma, I 've always thought of Fundamental Trading as based purely on the Financials as posted by each Company. News, rumors, etc. are pretty much excluded unless the news is an announcement about the Fundamentals such as Profit announcements, new dividend payout changes, etc.

 

Trading is gambling if you do not limit your risk and have no profit target. These are based on the Technicals & Fundamentals. Technicals are usually determined thru Charting software. When you have spent several years learning these things, you will have removed most of the gambling from trading.

 

Best of luck in your future "gambling"

[crusso 10]

I think that if people are telling you you're "gambling" and it's all "luck", they're thinking that trading is like playing the slot machines in Vegas. They think that there's nothing you can do to improve your odds of being successful.

 

So in that sense, trading is NOT about gambling and luck. Unlike at Vegas, you can give yourself a statistical advantage so that you make a positive cash flow. It's not easy, though. You have to be very disciplined, analytical, and adaptive. You're in for a lot of hard work in learning how to be successful.

 

If you think this is a get rich quick scheme, you should save your money and quit now.

[zdo 20]

re OP topic - Consider a ‘flip’

Gambling / gaming is sort of like trading.

The actually randomly generated situations of gambling/gaming surrogate for the (not truly random, but) “random like” situations of real trading, etc…

 

re: attracting ‘luck’

contrast

keeping your attention on preferred results and discovering and practicing where to fine tune your focus for each stage of a process.

with

sustaining a string of ‘positive’ thoughts and affirmations

Which do you think will be more effective long term?

 

also re luck.

Keep in mind there are multiple ‘kinds’ of luck, all with varying levels of possible ‘influence’.

[Tams 20]

.

Re: Is Trading Just a Sort of Gambling?

 

depends on how you define "gamble".

 

in general terms,

gamble is flipping a coin

gamble is throwing a dart blindfolded

 

 

are traders gamblers?

 

there are professional traders

and

there are professional gamblers

 

both use statistics

both use probabilities

both use calculated risks

(you might think you do not use any of the above,

or you might actually using them implicitly but not explicitly)

 

both make a living out of other people's miseries

 

that takes us back to the OP's question...

Is Trading Just a Sort of Gambling?

you can if you want to.

but for the serious traders, no.

[cbaer 10]

Thank you very much for all your replies

 

Hi salma,

 

Are your sure you should not be a bookkeeper or controller or given tax advice?

In those endevours there is right and wrong

WHICH WILL NOT CHANGE WITHOUT PRIOR NOTICE FROM SOMEBODY.

 

IN TRADING THERE IS NO RIGHT APPROACH THAT WILL WORK ALWAYS.

 

In trading there is no certainty. How often your a right or wrong does not matter

in the end. In fact I think trading is all about decision making under

uncertainty or dealing with uncertainty and comming out ahead.

 

If you do not like uncertainty or hate being wrong, change your job, and do it quickly.

 

Regards,

cbaer

[cbaer 10]

.

Re: Is Trading Just a Sort of Gambling?

 

depends on how you define "gamble".

 

Hi Tams,

 

I agree with you. If you take a gamler that goes to Las Vegas

to a casion with a casino manager.

 

Does anybody say, the casino manager is a gambler. No

although he makes his living taking the other side of gambles.

But he does it not for fun, he as an edge (in roulette in america

I think it is 2/38 of a dollar if on every number would be one dollar

bet)

So by providing roulette to the gamblers he takes away from the

gamblers roughly 5% per play.

 

And that is exactly the reason why gamblers are called gamblers

as the do something that has a negative edge for them. This is stuipd

to do and they should immedeatly stop what they are doing.

 

You can only argue that it gives them pleasure and for the pleasure

they are paying a fee, like the price you have to pay when you go

to the movies.

 

So is trading gambling? It can be if you do not have an edge, means

a well wriitten plan telling you what you can do and what not, that

provides a net profit at the end of your measurement periods and that

you are able to execute in the real world.

 

If you have that then you are the casino manager, if not you are probably

looking for excitement and are a gambler. So a serious trader can never

be a gambler. Serious trading can never be gambling.

 

Which leaves us with trading is gambling or not depending only on YOUSELF.

 

What if you do not have that plan and that edge. Well STOP immediatly.

Do not do any real trades untill you have made your homework.

 

That is my advice,

 

cbaer

[alfhind 10]

You have had plenty of responses dealing with the gambling aspect and luck so instead of covering those I will give you an example based on your fundamental approach.

 

It comes with a warning because I don't use fundamentals myself. Nevertheless it is based on my understanding of how the market operates.

 

If you study a companies results and they are good would you expect its share price to rise? Most beginner's would and that may actually happen, but it really depends on how the markets expectations have been met. So look also at how the companies share price has performed since its last set of results, in absolute terms and relative to the markets price movement over the same period. As you get used to doing that it will increase your skills and enable you to judge whether the actual results have met the expectations or not. It will then allow you to make investment decisions on a reasonable basis.

[SIUYA 11]

Positive thinking will not help you in the slightest. It will completely destroy you.

 

In this game you need industrial quantities of objectivity and sceptisism.

 

 

they are not mutually exclusive.

I have not come across many/any traders who are are pessimistic about their trading.

they may be bears, they may be realistic, skeptics, objective......but they also approach trading from a positive point of view in terms of their approach, their ideas, beliefs of the market.

 

off topic maybe.....luck and gambling related, but also different.

[jackb 10]

Some aspects of trading can be analogized to "games of chance." And many newbies all wide-eyed from ads they see about 1000% gains definitely are approaching it that way and, in turn, give trading a bad name.

 

Other aspects of trading are better analogized to "games of skill." Poker is the classic example and a very good one at that. Particularly since disinformation takes place in the markets same as it does on the felt.

 

Finally, you're free to engage with trading as nothing more than a game, possibly a hobby and even a business. When done as a business, there are other analogies that can be made.

 

Probably one of the most important of which, is that it typically is very much like running a small independent retail store in a large shopping mall. If you're familiar with the term "Black Friday" then you'll know where I'm heading. You need to plan/expect to run in the red for a large portion of the year (you'll need to have a sufficient working capital base to survive). You'll then be taking a gamble that a certain time of year (i.e., group of trades) will put you over the top and yield a sufficient return on your capital and time. Equally important is that the "off season" has to be well-managed (i.e., losses kept small).

 

Of course, most small businesses fail. Many that don't fail are just breaking even. And a good portion that are making money barely yield to the owner an imputed hourly wage greater than a few bucks an hour. Very few small business actually create substantial wealth for the owners.

[PQL111 12]

The market is a big mind all at once, and you have to know if you're game enough to do in the whole world.

The interest rates, wars, greed, fear, hope, desire, passion, cleverness, schemes, the good the bad the ugly. the last man standing and walk in the path of the omnipotent where ever he goes. we're all matter of this intelligent design and the universe is made out of chaos and order. If you use a lot of logic it is not enough to face all of the world issues invole like all the above I mention. Its not like you put a debit to a debit and a credit to credit type rationalizing. Its more like you sum up the game and now you have theory, because finance alone is not enough knowlegde. In a business where all you do is press buttoms to make a quick buck requires more and more ever so not relenting. You need a theory so you got to understand the science, and philosophy because you got to have a belief. Traders will trade what they have the most faith in, so how you believe reflects how you perceive the markets. This is of course what will effect your trading in losses or profits, but in this game most people burn before learning. There are always people coming back trying to use their logic and rationalizing though. The dynamics is crazy and some times you have to love that crazy to be crazy enough to know what crazy means. Markets can only move up and down there is no other chance, so feel like fire and ice. The 12 laws of the universe will help you get started. Of course the markets will drive mans nature to be greedy at times, so thats why herds and crowds are not rewarded. If you have always love to study history when you're little than you're better adept. Sometimes its good to know what this bs world is all about, because it will surprise you and will than wake up. The law of polarity or of opposites can help a little understand why some traders can't do it. I have to view it on my fractual, but my emotions are still different than some successful investors like Peter Lynch. I am more a person of understanding and discovering bold things that are the true mechanism of the markets. In the market its more admitting wrong than working harder at making it work, or else you will really not get nowhere. Stick to your supreme belief in what ever you most believe in, than erase all the other things and start from scratch again. Take the center point of what that remains and use that as the building block to connect a picture in your mind and start using your imagnation. You don't even have to be that smart wheather that subject requires a high comprehension or what not. You just got to use your senses and be honest with your own intution about what you're looking at. this comes from your gut, or else nothing in this world would have been invented. Thousands of men must have come across this to connect all theirs points to be successful. Start with something small but is real that fit your emotions best, and not what other people believe in all.

[salma 10]

wow guys! I didn't expect to see so many responses on my question! Thank you all for your time. And thank you for trying to help me with my question. I'll try now to read carefully each and every respond.

 

Positive thinking will not help you in the slightest. It will completely destroy you.

I mean to think positive about trading itself and what are you doing in general. I don't mean to be sure in success 100%. Especially when you just started trading. I saw already a lot of people that were just telling "hey! that's so easy! i can do it!" and they lost a lot.

I mean not to be pessimistic...like..."oh well...i'm not gonna get it ever..." So why are you doing this if you don't believe?

 

 

Gee, Salma, I 've always thought of Fundamental Trading as based purely on the Financials as posted by each Company. News, rumors, etc. are pretty much excluded unless the news is an announcement about the Fundamentals such as Profit announcements, new dividend payout changes, etc.

Yeah i understand this. But it gives me some idea whether the performance of the company is good enough not to hold shares of future bankrupt.

And again. When you analyse financial statements for example and you have quarterly as well...so I guess it's possible to make some prediction about annual performance and be prepared for the market reaction after the report is published.

This is how I see it. Am I wrong?

 

 

If you think this is a get rich quick scheme, you should save your money and quit now.

No I don't think so of course. Otherwise I would not be here. I understand that trading means hard work almost 24 hours a day and it's not easy to get success. And I trade not with my own money which makes me even more carefull.

 

 

re OP topic - Consider a ‘flip’

Keep in mind there are multiple ‘kinds’ of luck, all with varying levels of possible ‘influence’.

Thank you for the advice.

 

 

.

but for the serious traders, no.

That is what I mean. I would like to take trading serious and not as game.

And I'm just trying to understand what is all about and how people that do it professional feel about it.

 

 

Are your sure you should not be a bookkeeper or controller or given tax advice?

You caught me! :haha:

Seriously If there will be a moment when I understand that it's not for me I'll quit

 

 

What if you do not have that plan and that edge. Well STOP immediatly.

Do not do any real trades untill you have made your homework.

Yes I got already that plan is very important to have. As in each business.

I guess I'll ask about it in another Thread.

[salma 10]

If you study a companies results and they are good would you expect its share price to rise? Most beginner's would and that may actually happen, but it really depends on how the markets expectations have been met. So look also at how the companies share price has performed since its last set of results, in absolute terms and relative to the markets price movement over the same period. As you get used to doing that it will increase your skills and enable you to judge whether the actual results have met the expectations or not. It will then allow you to make investment decisions on a reasonable basis.

Thank you for the advice. I agree with you.

 

 

 

Whether you want to gamble with your time (considerable time,10,000 hours they say to become expert) depends on why you want to trade in the first place- how much do you want it?

Expect to pay for every lesson you learn in the market.Expect to pay again if the same mistakes are repeated.How much depends on how carefull you are with money and how quickly you can learn from your mistakes.If you are reckless with money then for you,trading will be gambling.

Most battles are won before a single shot is fired i've heard it said.If you have the right motivation for trading it is doable for all kinds of people.

I saw a programme recently about Goerings' brother.He used his name to get Jews out of germany and out of concentration camps at great personal risk and eventually died pennyless.In extreme situations,people sometimes have greatness thrust on them,or summon the power within they didn't know they had.Without those extreme situations it takes quite something to summon the power within.Desire,perseverance, willpower etc

Takes a lot of hard work to maximise our abilities in life..good luck

Thank you! There is much to think about. You're right that it's not only about money. It takes almost all my time already. And yes it's very important to understand why should I do it and whether I really want to do it.

Good question. As for me (please don't laugh) it's just chance to try myself in something new for now. Yes being honest I didn't understand yet whether I am really able to do it or I want to do it.

When I introduced myself in this forum I explain a little who am I and what I am doing here.

Maybe you'll think that my motivation is not good enough. I just got rather unexpected offer and deside to try.

 

 

 

Probably one of the most important of which, is that it typically is very much like running a small independent retail store in a large shopping mall. If you're familiar with the term "Black Friday" then you'll know where I'm heading. You need to plan/expect to run in the red for a large portion of the year (you'll need to have a sufficient working capital base to survive). You'll then be taking a gamble that a certain time of year (i.e., group of trades) will put you over the top and yield a sufficient return on your capital and time. Equally important is that the "off season" has to be well-managed (i.e., losses kept small).

 

Of course, most small businesses fail. Many that don't fail are just breaking even. And a good portion that are making money barely yield to the owner an imputed hourly wage greater than a few bucks an hour. Very few small business actually create substantial wealth for the owners.

Yeah I know very well what small business is :crap:

 

 

The market is a big mind all at once, and you have to know if you're game enough to do in the whole world.

The interest rates, wars, greed, fear, hope, desire, passion, cleverness, schemes, the good the bad the ugly. the last man standing and walk in the path of the omnipotent where ever he goes. we're all matter of this intelligent design and the universe is made out of chaos and order. If you use a lot of logic it is not enough to face all of the world issues invole like all the above I mention. Its not like you put a debit to a debit and a credit to credit type rationalizing. Its more like you sum up the game and now you have theory, because finance alone is not enough knowlegde. In a business where all you do is press buttoms to make a quick buck requires more and more ever so not relenting. You need a theory so you got to understand the science, and philosophy because you got to have a belief. Traders will trade what they have the most faith in, so how you believe reflects how you perceive the markets. This is of course what will effect your trading in losses or profits, but in this game most people burn before learning. There are always people coming back trying to use their logic and rationalizing though. The dynamics is crazy and some times you have to love that crazy to be crazy enough to know what crazy means. Markets can only move up and down there is no other chance, so feel like fire and ice. The 12 laws of the universe will help you get started. Of course the markets will drive mans nature to be greedy at times, so thats why herds and crowds are not rewarded. If you have always love to study history when you're little than you're better adept. Sometimes its good to know what this bs world is all about, because it will surprise you and will than wake up. The law of polarity or of opposites can help a little understand why some traders can't do it. I have to view it on my fractual, but my emotions are still different than some successful investors like Peter Lynch. I am more a person of understanding and discovering bold things that are the true mechanism of the markets. In the market its more admitting wrong than working harder at making it work, or else you will really not get nowhere. Stick to your supreme belief in what ever you most believe in, than erase all the other things and start from scratch again. Take the center point of what that remains and use that as the building block to connect a picture in your mind and start using your imagnation. You don't even have to be that smart wheather that subject requires a high comprehension or what not. You just got to use your senses and be honest with your own intution about what you're looking at. this comes from your gut, or else nothing in this world would have been invented. Thousands of men must have come across this to connect all theirs points to be successful. Start with something small but is real that fit your emotions best, and not what other people believe in all.

I have read it with pleasure. And I guess I'll read it again. There is much to think about.

(Felt like reading a poem, seriously). Thank you.

Am I crazy enough...?

[MadMarketScientist 11]

Great thread all the way around.

 

I found myself nodding my head in agreement - a lot of experienced wisdom shared here.

 

I don't know if trading is gambling -- like many mentioned it can be, and it cannot be depending upon your approach. I know back in my former life I loved to gamble. Once I got involved in trading actively I lost all desire to gamble. So either it replaced that vice to gamble directly, or the sensation is so similar.....

 

For me the difference is when I would gamble in a casino I really knew I'd never go above 50% odds in my favor since I'm not smart enough to count cards. I thought in sports betting I could go above 50% since there is some skill. In trading I'm 100% positive that I can be well north of 50% win ratio and therein tells me it's not a straight gamble.

 

MMS