week 2

[Buk 10]

so........they digested their donuts, emptied their extra strong caffiene mugs, waited for price to show it's intent, then calmly stepped in.........

 

top-down approach (on our charts anyway, your may be different) saw price nudging a weekly Fib from the larger levels...........

 

 

 

 

the 30min printed an inside bar doji above the R3, with a resulting bearish bar bias............

 

 

 

the 15m confirmed the higher frame doji with lower top exhaustive-neutral bar prints...........

 

 

 

and the 5m focused the (likely) trigger a pip or two below the breakout of the contracting pattern........secondary confirmation available a pip or two below the pivot if preferred (with confirmatory behaviour via the 1m candles)........

 

 

 

 

so, how do you trade it & where do you plan for exits??.....

 

well......again, that would depend upon your own personal price aid kit-bag & your objectives for the trade.........the entry offered low risk with decent profit returns given price has already travelled twice it's normal daily range on an over-extended data shunt.......waiting until price "showed it's hand" before commiting still allowed low risk stop placement in case it turned tail & snatched you out?

 

1st (scale out-profit book zone) target could be the R2 pivot zone below @ 9460?.........then a case of moving stops down to your entry for a b/e risk?

 

if you're only intending playing it as an intraday shuffle, then as it continues down, merely trail it to next pivot zone, any Fibs on the smaller frames (from recent low to current high) or any small frame consolidation stalls on it's way South?

 

doesn't matter really, only that you allow price to tell you when it's done & dusted according to your rules/strat guidelines.

[torero 10]

I got lucky with one but not with the other during the news. I wasn't aware of the surprise news since I left GBPUSD with a tight stop (should have known better) and stopped out before it resumed uptrend. The EURJPY long was left with trailing stop and it got out at the top, so lucky play. This is my first time leaving my desk with a trend and a trailing stop. I presume this was a lucky shot.

 

 

[torero 10]

Taking a small size here to catch the bounce with a tight tight stop relying on double 0 and top of bull flag as a stopper. We'll see. May be a cut but won't be a nose bleed.

 

[Buk 10]

This is my first time leaving my desk with a trend and a trailing stop. I presume this was a lucky shot.

 

I wouldn't say that........you planned your trades according to your own personal preferences & tolerance?

 

the market did it's work & you got paid for doing yours!..........

 

you can only plan, execute & manage a trade with the resources & information available to you.......it's a long haul endeavor - sometimes that planning will really amplify a move & you'll catch it.....other times circumstances dictate you'll get unseated prior to the "big" move......

 

it all balances out over time in my view torero...........

[torero 10]

It's possible it wasn't lucky but my logic to use trailing stop was to protect what's been earned already and I gave it room to push further so it did pan out well. The GBPUSD, however was tight stop when I could have used a trailing stop as well. In some ways, it was to experiment which stop did better where and when. Not sure if I can repeat the task with the same success using trailing stops, but we'll see. Thanks for the encouragement, Buk.

 

One observation I've noticed is that compared to the futures is that you can be forgiven (and rewarded?) for spending a high percentage of time in the market because of the moves they make is almost instantaneous. In futures, the longer time you stay in the market, the worst your performance. This is of course my observation from my style of trading in 2 both areas, both intraday trading.

[Buk 10]

One observation I've noticed is that compared to the futures is that you can be forgiven (and rewarded?) for spending a high percentage of time in the market because of the moves they make is almost instantaneous.

 

yeah, Anna certainly keeps her trigger finger loose on a week to week basis.....obviously it depends on the current conditions etc, but there are usually a good selection of opportunities across a small selection of pairs during a typical weeks activity........

 

to be honest torero, I'm not the best rapid, micro-timeframe trader out there, in fact I'm pretty crap if truth be told......which is why I leave most of that activity to Anna and a couple of the other guys.........but for those who are capable & efficient, there's some good wages to be earned on these instruments just cruising back & forth thru the sub hourly wiggles!

[Anna-Maria 10]

It's possible it wasn't lucky but my logic to use trailing stop was to protect what's been earned already and I gave it room to push further so it did pan out well.

 

 

That's what we all strive for torero. I echo my brothers comments, in that everyone eventually finds their own comfort zone if they can get over the initial hurdles.

 

It's important, if not imperative, that a trader plays to his/her strengths. Whether those strengths exist on the sub hourly charts or the +hourly is irrelevant.

 

The markets exist & flourish because of a multi-mix variety of participants. There are no rules to say you can't trade sub 15m timeframes. Just because one person loses his pants on fast timeframes, doesn't equate to the next guy going down the same pan.

 

We all experimented across the board when first starting out, & each one gravitated to the work which suited us best.

 

Horses for courses is what I say. Congratulations on your recent success, keep it going!

[Buk 10]

Taking a small size here to catch the bounce with a tight tight stop relying on double 0 and top of bull flag as a stopper. We'll see. May be a cut but won't be a nose bleed.

 

 

you're the man!!!!!!........excellent spot (excuse the pun)......

 

you watchin sister girl?????

 

 

[torero 10]

Out here, looks like it's rounding out and possibly down. So taking the bounce for what's offered. I also took a chance having remembered you liking dojis, hammers, and bull/bear engulfing candles. I spotted a hammer on 5- & 15-min so I thought I'd give it a shot.

 

Thanks for the all the kind words but I'm still green and much to learn and longevity is my goal. How I handle the drawdown will be the true test of my true grit as a forex trader. It can be great now, but I have to be vigilant and not blow out, it's such an easy path for newbies. Both your experience and longevity speak for themselves so I haven't proven anything yet, just beginner's luck (hope not) but I hope to do well month to month.

 

[cowpip 10]

You are doing awesome, Torero! Very nicely done indeed!

[torero 10]

Thanks for the kind works, cowpip, just hope it doesn't stop and let it go to head and blow out.

 

Took another long this morning, seeing how prices didn't want to come down and forming a ascending triangle on the 15min chart.

 

[Anna-Maria 10]

Some pretty positive behaviour on the overnight activity kicking off the Pivot & 50% Fib line of the recent intraday barriers.

 

Took a long based on the Hourly prints, 5m Band behaviour, triggering via the 1m candle higher low push thru 453.

 

These types of fast trade entries are deemed short-term only shuffles up to & down to key prev day lines, where I'll look for immediate reaction.

 

Slightest hesitation & I'm out on full size, otherwise I'll book 70% & run the remainder seeking follow thru where I'll judge the next potential level of s&r for continuation/compounding.

 

 

 

[Anna-Maria 10]

Booked +30 @ the 23.6 Fib - remainder to b/e.

[Anna-Maria 10]

Sniffing around at this 23.6 minor barrier, nothing to worry bout at the mo.

 

Given this is striking pre-London, I wouldn't want to be in it if it was to run out of steam here, hence the shift of remaining stakes to the b/e.

 

It's either gonna pump or die back into the small pre-London tunnel.

 

Either way, it's a fair risk-odds strike.

[Anna-Maria 10]

15m printing neutral-negative bars up here at the 23.6 - 1m turning over slightly.

 

Needs to kick here otherwise it's leaking gas & looks like re-testing the punch out of the 38.2/pivot line.

[cowpip 10]

Nicely done, folks! I came to the screens about 5 minutes too late (sigh) to catch the drop that Texxas pointed out in the chart above. Dang! Ah well... plenty more fish to fry.

[Anna-Maria 10]

Added 25% back in here at the 5m p/b (9465 based on 1m candles), looking for a 2nd thrust thru the early topline @ the 23.6

[cowpip 10]

Alrighty - I was able to get a price of 468. Stop has already been moved to b/e as this could be the spike-5 of a 1-5 reversal pattern if it fails to plow ahead.

[Anna-Maria 10]

Same procedure - remove half at the 23.6 & move all remaining stops up to the add-in entry to protect the position in case of an aggressive kickback

[torero 10]

Very nice, Tex, got in early on the first reaction. I closed my laptop after the first bounce and didn't want to think anymore until next day. I'm playing triangle with target 9520 as target. Just saw the reaction Tex is mentioning, hopefully it was a confirmation of the tri breakout pattern. We'll see.

[torero 10]

Quick question: does anyone here hold over the weekend? If yes, what justifies holding it that long? I've learned from futures that holding over weekend carries some risk (and reward but I think risk first) so not sure how it is with forex. If a disaster strike somewhere in the country that is not related to the pair being trade, would it be carried over to that pair?

[Anna-Maria 10]

Yeah, your target fits with my initial shunt North to y'days highs & the R1 Pivot zone.

 

Hope it breaks & runs for you - good entry btw

[cowpip 10]

Torero, if prices are trending well and I have an entry that is well protected, sure, I'll hold a position over the weekend. Yes, there is risk, but as you know - where there isn't risk, there isn't reward. Sometimes, the only way to make a swinger really work well is to hold it over the weekend. That's my 2-pips worth of opinion.

[Anna-Maria 10]

Quick question: does anyone here hold over the weekend? If yes, what justifies holding it that long? I've learned from futures that holding over weekend carries some risk (and reward but I think risk first) so not sure how it is with forex. If a disaster strike somewhere in the country that is not related to the pair being trade, would it be carried over to that pair?

 

Buk & the longer term guy's will hold over w/ends. They will only generally run positions over if the entry (& profit pares) justify it however.

 

By that I mean price needs to be at least 1.5c to the positive after the trade has returned pared out profits & an appropriate stop/risk level justifies the hold.

 

True, the generic risk has to be considered, but to my memory, they've only experienced 2 occasions where they were slipped on a bad gap against the positions.

 

It can happen, but like all trades, everything has to be considered carefully before making the decision.

[cowpip 10]

That last little spike down took me out. C'est la vie.