week 2

[Anna-Maria 10]

Nice, good trade there Cary

 

Good luck with the resumption!

[cowpip 10]

Well, it didn't "resume" like I had hoped. The stalling at 393 had me concerned, so I moved my stop to b/e. It just took me out now (to the pip - I hate it when it does that - but I knew my stop was in a vulnerable location). It doesn't seem to have the umph to push on yet. No point in beating a dead horse. So I'm done for the day. Time for some shut-eye.

 

Good trading, everyone!

 

PS: Someone needs to crank up the volume on the volatility button a bit. These sub-100 daily range prints (today may be another?) are getting a bit yawny!

 

Thanks for the cander, Texxas! It's been fun.

[Anna-Maria 10]

Price has again stalled out inside the small range pre-NY, adding credence to yesterdays lower high containment at the larger 38.2 line.

 

One or two markers in focus as we drift into the 1st of the main data dishes for this week.

 

We have a 61.8 Fib plotted on the Daily protecting the 1.92 Round Number @ 9220 should the buck gain a little momentum off this weeks data.

 

Whilst the 9460 is a busy level, also housing the 38.2 plotted from our larger Daily levels.

 

Just have to wait see what occurs - quite a tricky area underneath this recent range bust thru 9450. Looks like we'll be playing it via the shorter intraday strats until or when price confirms a directional bias.

 

240min with accompanying range Fibs + todays Pivot references.

 

 

 

15m highlighting the important levels in focus.

 

[Dr Who 10]

markets are traded via an assortment of differing agenda’s…..long, medium & short term players contribute to the daily flow & liquidity which ensures opportunities present themselves according to the structures & objectives of said participants………

 

it’s often daunting for newcomers to the markets to determine which style or timeframe best suits their execution mode…..however, the vast majority of non-commercial traders tend to veer towards a dominant technical bias…….

 

whether one is looking to clip regular 20-50 pip raids from the ball park, or gun for the larger 200-300 pip moves, a basic awareness of the generic landscape is often helpful to best plan a suitable course of action – or to put it simply: construct their trade plan!

 

I like to look at the trading map from a top-down approach…my main point of reference revolves around the use of Fibs, Pivots & perceived zones of longer range s&r levels…..I say perceived, because the market doesn’t really give a jot what I see…...these common area’s of reference are observed by a good majority of participants from each camp, therefore they’re the best I’ve got in order to lay down a base platform for the forthcoming session…

 

whatever you use (providing it offers you an edge), it’s important to remain faithful to the plan-rules…that way, as conditions change & the market evolves from trend to range etc, you’re better prepared to alter course without too much stress or financial loss……….

 

i’ve found thru experience, the larger range technical zones tend to react more favorably as price approaches..…Whether I’m observing a 5 or 30m frame for a particular entry or trigger, the journey & reaction of the larger monthly/weekly/daily bars have a greater affect on the impending direction than their smaller timeframe cousins…………

 

therefore, I like to see where & when these longer range lines are coming into focus……we know that the big round numbers (00’s & to a lesser degree the 50’s) & the accompanying levels slightly beyond them (stop & profit zones) carry heavy psychological significance, for a multitude of reasons……..we also know that once a confluence of events surround these levels (be they Fib clusters/pivot lines/wave axis/channel boundaries etc) the emotive attraction is intensified…….

 

these key levels form the backbone of my analysis & execution planning…….of course, nothing works all the time & I’m sure as hell not going to beat the market to the plate on every occasion – but my priority is to seek value & reduce risk as often as possible………

 

time has also taught me that whatever technical model you choose to adopt, the emphasis on simplicity & common sense will bear the ripest fruits……..complication leads to indecision…..or paralysis!!

 

once the larger levels are constructed & mapped, they offer a guide to the smaller trigger frames…..and my favored patterns & price bar formations can then be observed as price gravitates to these key lines……….

 

it’s by no means a guaranteed atm receipt, but it affords me a workable template from which to construct my core strategies, dependant upon the current price environment (trend/range/consolidation)…………….

 

to that end, Fridays closing level has earmarked a couple of lower & higher zones of interest which I’ll certainly be alert to observing as price decides where it’s intentions lie……….

 

apologies for the ‘war & peace’ commentary……..I promise, future posts will be infinitely more succinct!!

 

 

the 60m focuses Cable upside resistance zones, which show the relevant markers from the bigger frames.......I'll attach the intraday pivots to the 60m & sub hourlies to guage price bar formations as they come into view around the important s&r levels...........

 

 

Buk,

 

Good post.

Do you find this to be the case with all the major currencies and other minor currency pairs? And what pairs do you normally trade and why?

 

I am curious as to how others approach choosing what pairs to trade and their reasons for doing so.

 

Regards

The Doctor.

[Dr Who 10]

I'll try explaining by hauling up a few examples James.......

 

I use timeframe blending (4hr-1hr-15m) as my core method of determining the current state of play......the 4hr is my base template which houses the relevant & pertinent info from the larger timeframe charts (main pivots/fibs etc)........

 

the 60 & 15m frames are my zoomed in observation references for triggering & managing the initial entry & eventual exit..........

 

I was reared on simple bar & pressure observation.....the ROUND NUMBERS are key (for me) in highlighting potential exhaustion-reversal behaviour in confluence with the BAR information they display at these levels........

 

rather archaic I know, given all the new age bells & whistles available nowadays - but I'm a firm believer in the old adage: "if it aint broke, don't meddle with it".......I might have to spend an hour or two more than other folks at the workstation, but there ya go....life's a bitch

 

this methodology combined with my stake-sizing & trade management structure (scaling out-compounding back), fits well with the psychology & behaviour traits of the instruments I trade.........

 

I suffer a bit when price flips from trend to consol/range behaviour (on these timeframes), mainly attempting to climb aboard the b/o etc.....but once it makes a run for it & I can get aboard at a fair value entry, it generally plays out ok...........

 

i'll stick up the 4hr examples first (taken from back in Sept/Oct) to give you an idea.......& the 60m observations on the next post..........

 

hope they help shine some light on my train of thought

 

 

 

 

 

Buk,

 

Do you trade spot or currency futures?

[Dr Who 10]

seriously though, folks will tend to develop & progress if they're fortunate enough to find one or two templates which fit not only their personal 'comfort zone' but also harmonize with the markets they intend trading.........

 

there are many ways to skin the market cat, the hardest part is finding the implement in which to attempt to skin it........

 

the most important factor when getting to work on that implement (strategy combo), is to devise it around the safety net of RISK management........too often folks focus on "how much can they make or win" from their strategies or systems, instead of concentrating their priorities on protecting the capital/trade executions thru sound risk & money management.......

 

you can engineer a fantastic win/loss ratio strategy & test it to the hilt etc........but if the basic risk structure is weak & the sizing/management is suspect, you're pissing against the wind..........

 

 

This is the best post I have read on forums regarding starting out in trading. Knowing it from a stock trading perspective starting out in currecy trading is a little intimidating and more complicated at first. Reading the above keeps the ideology simple to the point of not neglecting the true factors that make or break traders: Risk management, psychology.

 

The analogy is something to be framed which is why I highlighted it in red.

The Doctor.

[Dr Who 10]

Amen to that. Risk before profits. I trading mentality is very similar to my poker mentality. When you're not sure if you can win the hand, let go. As long Im still holding chips, I can comeback:

 

1. Preservation of capital is number one

2. Looks are deceiving. Pocket queen's may actually be beat preflop. Even the best looking trading setups will have to pass at times.

3. The worst thing that can happen is to catch something on the flop with a mediocre hand. In other words, making profits with lucky mediocre setups will get me in a bad habit and hurt me in the long run.

4. Who cares if my opponent bluffs and wins a pot. Im not trying to prove him anything. In trading... divorce my ego. Trade to make money and not to be right.

5. "If you can't spot the sucker in the first 30 minutes.... you are the sucker". Have a professional mindset. Dont be the sheep. What would I do if I was a big shot floor trader? What price levels will I look at? etc...

 

Just some rules and guidelines I live by.

 

James,

 

Good post too sir. I shall ponder these points for a while.

Regards

The Doctor

[torero 10]

After seeing the downtrend, I've decided to take the short here, just when it prices turned down at the 9350 area. I know tex is pointing out the 9535 area to be support, I've got my stop just above 9355. Small stop for a bigger target at 9287 area.

 

[torero 10]

I saw this and couldn't resist, a bear flag breaking down. I'm short here. This is actually my second trade with this pair and starting to get a good feel for it. Very smooth and slow, just the way I like 'em

 

[Anna-Maria 10]

Sorry this a tad late. I took the snag then got diverted.

 

Anyway, it's self-explanatory adhering to our typical entry criteria. I've re-drawn the Fibs on the days H-L activity, & was waiting to obtain a trigger off the pullback from the 10.00am data.

 

The 15m chart highlights the entry (short thru 9338) with stops back on a short leash @ 358, above the high p/b bar & 38.2 Fib for now.

 

I'm targeting the low zone down towards the weeks lows @ 9260 to the higher low pitch @ 9280.

 

If this trots on, Buk can pick it up & see where he wants to scale/run it. For now, the lower high stack is confirming off yesterdays thru 9450 & todays reluctance to breach back on a determined re-test continues to weigh on this instrument.

 

I'll slacken off the stops should price meander & hold the days lows.

 

Dr Who: Buks a little busy today, so won't catch up with the posts until tomorrow.

 

 

 

[Anna-Maria 10]

After seeing the downtrend, I've decided to take the short here, just when it prices turned down at the 9350 area. I know tex is pointing out the 9535 area to be support, I've got my stop just above 9355. Small stop for a bigger target at 9287 area.

 

 

Snap!!

 

Yeah, it's a decent odds strike to test the validity of this lower top formation.

 

Might get a bit whippy down here, depending on the Bulls appetite to run it, but nonetheless, worth having a decent risk pop at it.

[torero 10]

This is an amazing family-team of forex traders you are. I always assume everyone trade his/her own account and not have a role of mananing one account but on dividing timeframe roles. What an eye-opener. When my kids grow old enough to appreciate trading, I'll send them over to your house and have you train them like a team too

[Anna-Maria 10]

We're only 2 of a whole bunch of saddo's, LOL. Fortunately, with us being banished across in UK we have more flexibility time wise etc.

 

The private accounts are actually traded thru a matrix of 6 of us, so the only posts/comments shown here relate to those transactions.

 

We're not really permitted to reveal fund account info etc, which is fair enough, but we co-trade those too.

 

I guess it's second nature these day's - we've worked closely for so long we know each others (trade) movements inside out & back to front.

 

Trust is paramount, otherwise it would very quickly go belly up.

[torero 10]

Yes, I can imagine working as a team can be difficult since trading in itself is solitary unless one works in an organized business like hedge fund or similar. It's great to see smooth teamwork!

[Anna-Maria 10]

Buk,

 

Do you find this to be the case with all the major currencies and other minor currency pairs? And what pairs do you normally trade and why?

 

Regards

The Doctor.

 

Dr Who,

 

Buk is gonna be absent from here again tomorrow infortunately, so I'll answer your queries if that's ok?

 

Our swing mid-term strat models can be engineered across most of the FX candidates. That goes for both the majors & popular crosses.

 

Certainly the Swiss Franc, Cable & CAD are favorites for intraday/small range plays. Euro tends to take on a more longer timeframe perspective due to it's heavy weighting & inferior intraday range extremes.

 

Although it may appear we neglect anything other than the Cable, we do in fact trade a range of FX instruments. It's just Cable seems to retain it's sweet flavor amongst the majority of traders, therefore it's easier to haul up examples of it's technical journey.

 

Sure, Cable offers very good opportunities to play the intraday ranges & it attracts decent momentum during London for obvious reasons. It's definitely our favored play for chasing short to mid-term returns due in part to it's propensity to get shoved to aggressive & over-extended range barriers.

 

Buk likes the GBP cross pairs, especially GBP/YEN & GBP/CHF. EUR/YEN, EUR/CHF & AUD/USD are also high on the agenda, again mainly due to the fact they stack up positively against our favored strat objectives.

 

Your question in relation to Spot v/s Ftrs?

 

We do have Futures accounts, but they're predominantly traded by our colleagues/Parents

 

Both Buk, myself & our siblings major on Spot transactions. We receive very competative spreads/costs with good coverage & fills via our suppliers.

[torero 10]

There are 6 siblings in all? Wow, big team. And your parents still trade? Incredible. Never seen one another generation following the footsteps of the previous, especially in trading.

 

I'm working my way get to the higher plays when my confidence increase.

[Dr Who 10]

Dr Who,

 

Buk is gonna be absent from here again tomorrow infortunately, so I'll answer your queries if that's ok?

 

Our swing mid-term strat models can be engineered across most of the FX candidates. That goes for both the majors & popular crosses.

 

Certainly the Swiss Franc, Cable & CAD are favorites for intraday/small range plays. Euro tends to take on a more longer timeframe perspective due to it's heavy weighting & inferior intraday range extremes.

 

Although it may appear we neglect anything other than the Cable, we do in fact trade a range of FX instruments. It's just Cable seems to retain it's sweet flavor amongst the majority of traders, therefore it's easier to haul up examples of it's technical journey.

 

Sure, Cable offers very good opportunities to play the intraday ranges & it attracts decent momentum during London for obvious reasons. It's definitely our favored play for chasing short to mid-term returns due in part to it's propensity to get shoved to aggressive & over-extended range barriers.

 

Buk likes the GBP cross pairs, especially GBP/YEN & GBP/CHF. EUR/YEN, EUR/CHF & AUD/USD are also high on the agenda, again mainly due to the fact they stack up positively against our favored strat objectives.

 

Your question in relation to Spot v/s Ftrs?

 

We do have Futures accounts, but they're predominantly traded by our colleagues/Parents

 

Both Buk, myself & our siblings major on Spot transactions. We receive very competative spreads/costs with good coverage & fills via our suppliers.

 

 

texxas,

 

Thanks for your response to my post. I understand what you are saying whith the various currencies. You trade spot so what do you think of using volume or not using volume in your analysis? Basically spot volume is not too reliable so what do you guys think of using it?

 

Regards

The Doctor.

[Anna-Maria 10]

torero: Sorry, I didn't explain properly. There are 6 of us working out of the UK location. Our sisters work/trade back in the States at that location, only 5 (siblings) of us actually trade for a living.

 

Dr Who: We don't utilize volume at all on the spot instruments. With spot having no recognized central exchange, it's not an option. We have access to (internal) ladder facilities, where we can view best bid/ask & related liquidity at each level depth, but that is obviously only pertinent to the supplier we're executing thru for that particular deal.

 

 

OK, so the overnight activity is muted drifting into London. I'm moving our stops back a tad from 9358 to 9370 (above the 50% marker & todays main pivot), just to allow price to wander back in order to sweep any stops which might be trailing in open country.

 

That's about as much risk as I'm prepared to give it on this entry from y'day. If it's a genuine lower high step play, I'd expect it to hold below 50% of yesterdays range (c9370), barring any unexpected data surprises.

 

Anyhow, we'll see whats in store for it this session.

 

 

[torero 10]

I just closed out my short. I know it's drifting but I see a bigger pattern that's stopping it from decline (maybe the time?). I get the feeling the rectangle is not as strong as the rising channel. Setting my stop at 9312 and looking for above 9420 as target.

 

[pipMonster 10]

We passed the local 38% fib at ~37 and the big fib at ~41 as price heads north. We still have the RN 50 and the 50% fib at ~60. Hmmm.... still determining intentions of this move. The 240-min shows a trend still heading south.

 

Looks like a test of the big fib at 41 again. Stop clearing for those who jumped the gun long? Could also be construed as a rejection at RN 50?

 

We'll see....

[Buk 10]

I'm moving our stops back a tad from 9358 to 9370 (above the 50% marker & todays main pivot), just to allow price to wander back in order to sweep any stops which might be trailing in open country.

 

That's about as much risk as I'm prepared to give it on this entry from y'day.

 

 

you might want to "job" this back up??........that new stop level is the 23.6 of the larger swing (9750-9260)

[torero 10]

I also reversed and went long on EURJPY. This is another question I wanted to bring up, how well do SAR strategies work in forex? Anyone has good or bad experience with this? I see a pattern failure or a level broken, I don't see it need confirmation to go the other way, except if it's moving so slow breaking my stops that it's worth being flat. Any thoughts?

 

[Anna-Maria 10]

you might want to "job" this back up??........

 

It's already taken care of.

[torero 10]

Yep, possible I'm jumping the gun before London. I'm still learning to incorporate market openings and closings. But for the moment, I'm focused on the price action on chart and see if openings can be seen in the charts.

[cowpip 10]

Awesome "job", Texxas (I know - booo!) . I took a long entry at 29 - going in the same direction as the dominant asian trend, on that famous asian/london cross pull-back I like so much. Scaled some out up here near 50 so I can move my stop back into safer territory for b/e - just in case this move up isn't legit.