week 2

[cowpip 10]

I guess your short was just a fader cowpip?

 

Yeah, I recognized the resistance (edited: I mean, support - duh!) down near 410/20 and scaled enough out to be happy. I also reduced my stop to b/e, in case this thing doesn't have the desire to push lower. I'll let it run now and see how it looks tomorrow. Judging by current price action, I'd say it has a less than even chance of surviving. There's usually a pop during the london/NY cross that could easily take me out. No biggie if it does. I'm protected now. I wish I could stay up and nurse this - but I'm just too tired now. Good trading, everyone!

[Buk 10]

good for you!

 

wouldn't really want to see this nice little consolidation threaten much below y'days high (9403) to be honest......otherwise it could well accelerate & will offer support for the bearish lower high print potential..........

 

that 4hr neutral bar needs to be taken out to the topside leading into NY.....

[torero 10]

My only take from this 240-min is that the upper 9440 is back into the rectangle. Since it's been broken down and possible this is a confirmation to make what was support is now resistance. I'm watching this careful for any signs of weakness to reverse my position.

 

[Anna-Maria 10]

Yes, agreed.

 

This consolidation is beginning to time out up here, certainly as an accumulation prospect to test this s&r level.

 

The value is becoming diluted the longer it strings out. Don't think he'll hold this for too much longer.

 

You got the best of the ride (risk) on this mini leg - nice one

[Buk 10]

This consolidation is beginning to time out up here, certainly as an accumulation prospect to test this s&r level.

 

 

it's a higher risk option sure, but this still looks good for a ride to the next confluence zone @ 1.95 if it can hold this small floor support above the 23.6 (9375)

 

just bloody annoying to have missed the optimum low risk entry down at that 78.6 thru 9305..........

[Anna-Maria 10]

I wouldn't worry bout it, it's more than covered via the GBP crosses anyway?!

 

Bail it & pick it up farther back? There's no impetus to run it now, + if it's going to make a genuine attempt to climb back into the range & gun for the 50% range zone at the 1.95, they'll prop it if it falls back??

 

That way, the risk is absorbed lower down. If not it's a dollar a dime trade.

[Buk 10]

I don't see any selling.....+ it hasn't closed below yesterdays low let alone the 23.6.........

 

I'll meet you half-way.......a close below the 395 & it's re-assess time......

 

the p/b from the 445 confluence, albeit time consuming, is shallow....I'd rather not relinquish the weeny bit of value I've already got........

 

it still represents decent odds........

[Anna-Maria 10]

I'll meet you half-way.......a close below the 395 & it's re-assess time......

 

 

As long as it's via the 1min frame, yeah!

[torero 10]

Weakness is coming in still too early to go short. I'll wait for it to go lower or when it makes a lower high/lower low.

[Buk 10]

it's remained inside the Tokyo range all day, printing approx 60% of it's avg daily range thus far.......as you say teroro, no real reason to do anything as yet - certainly no justifiable reason to sell it........yet!

 

just a lazy, directionless session.......

[torero 10]

I'm still amazed that Tokyo has nothing to do with GBPUSD, but still packs a range that NY and London doesn't break so easily. I imagine JPY-pegged pairs would present more validity on Tokyo ranges. My system is still holding so I'm still long.

[Anna-Maria 10]

The Bands tell the story! Ok, no definitive reason to sell it yet, but by the same token, no real reason to hold it either?

 

How many times have you shorted/longed the Bands on the back of a pre-London fake play??!!

 

What can't speak can't lie

 

 

[Buk 10]

yep.......fair play

 

losses banked.....

 

booted & suited for tomorra!!

[torero 10]

The Bands tell the story! Ok, no definitive reason to sell it yet, but by the same token, no real reason to hold it either?

 

How many times have you shorted/longed the Bands on the back of a pre-London fake play??!!

 

What can't speak can't lie

 

 

 

 

What's a pre-London fake play? Is it what we're seeing now? Drifting slowly into eventual deterioration of the levels that will take to London open?

[Anna-Maria 10]

Yes, it's a failure to take out the high or low of the pre-London bar print.

 

On a strong market thrust, price will move aggressively through the bands from bottom to top (attacking the Asian high), or top to bottom (attacking the Asian low). We'd expect price to re-test the band penetration (holding at the median line) & continue on to validate a position.

 

During a steady trend move, including a move during the Asian session, again we'd want price to remain loyal to the upper/lower band reference.

 

That's the generics anyhow. Obviously, there needs to be confirming info, but for the types of strats we use, they're a good confirmer of expectancy.

 

Trouble this morning was: price held a steady line at the 9410-15 supports, and looked like mounting a push for the 9445 p/b high.

 

Buk took the option of buying the consol lows. Fair enough, nothing wrong with that stance. There was simply insufficient demand to kick price back up, therefore all we got was a slow bleed through the median line, temporarily relieved as NY came online.

 

2nd failure there was the signal to close out.

 

I wasn't particularly disputing the decision to "go long" - he was right to buy at his fair value/odds risk level(s), but insufficient kick + inability to breach the Tokyo top rendered the position suspect.

[pipMonster 10]

Excellent example of "Plan the trade, Trade the plan."

 

Even for you guys with the giant accounts, things don't always work out. As soon as the position was seen as suspect, it was dumped.

 

Next bus? There's always another value area trade coming along.

 

May I suggest the 'Magic 8 Ball' for future reference?

[cowpip 10]

May I suggest the 'Magic 8 Ball' for future reference?

 

ROTFLOL! I think both you and I know just how well the Magic 8 Ball works, my friend! LOL!

 

It works better as a pregnancy test!

[Anna-Maria 10]

No-one, regardless of their experience or exposure to markets, is immune to losses Jack!

 

I can assure you we have our fair share of those along the route LOL. It's important however, to not only recognize & plan for them, but to stick rigidly to the tolerances set for the individual trades.

 

I'll protect his stops via the micro timeframes whenever possible as he's attempting to climb into a potential swing leg, but initially the entry has to live or die by the analysis & prep etc.

 

We won't throw good money after bad just for the sake of trying to prove each other right.

[cowpip 10]

I happened to be at the screens a bit early today and couldn't resist taking a long at the daily double-fib confluence zone. I believe the reaction may have been news related (UK consumer confidence dropped) - but whatever the cause, it provided me with what I feel is a reasonable entry to ride prices higher. Yesterdays price action seemed a bit artificial or overly-muted - almost as though no one wanted to play at those levels. The daily range certainly was contracted. If price intends to push back up, this seems to me like a reasonable area to re-engage longs?

 

[cowpip 10]

What do you folks think of yesterdays daily cable candle print? Does it have the makings of a possible pin-bar? That's one of the concerns I currently have about trying to go long right now.

[Anna-Maria 10]

Like you, I've longed it this morning, albeit slightly later than your keen entry cowpip.

 

I wanted to wait for some interim confirmation of this 9350 pivot zone & the reaction to the momentum up through the Bands leading into London.

 

Anyhow, this is only really intended as an aggressive intraday strike, intended to reduce the small loss from Buks trade y'day.

 

I'll skim out at todays main pivot area & trail tight, looking for continuation thru to cR1 before making any further decisions re: stops/compounds etc.

 

This still appears weak until it climbs back towards 9455-75 level, & any micro entries will require watching like a hawk in my view.

 

 

[cowpip 10]

Very cool, Texxas. I feel much better when we're going in the same direction. I scaled a portion out at that daily pivot zone for +50 to remove the risk on my entry. Let's see what this puppy can do.

[Anna-Maria 10]

Buk talked about structure in a prev post on here somewhere. It's important that regardless of the timeframe, similar structure is obeyed.

 

It doesn't guarantee that an entry will be successful, but it allows you to monitor the progress of your strat & guage whether market conditions are suitable to engage a specific strat play?

 

This is where we'll look to tweak or improve one or two ingredients of our basic templates. Conditions change. Ranges become contracted, or fundamentals affect short-medium term volatility etc. If we don't obey consistant structure or remain loyal to the rules applying to our strats, then we're gonna be behind the curve when price skips out of line.

 

It means we can flip from attempted swing entries to a faster/shorter timeframe bias until price begins to string out again. It merely affords us flexibility to engage according to the current market conditions. Nothing too in-depth or scientific, merely sensible reaction to conditions.

 

 

[Anna-Maria 10]

Stopped out on last % stakes as the UK Data disappointed, now flat this on intraday strike.

 

I'll probably hang fire now until our session kicks off with the release of the Stateside Trade numbers @ 8.30 EST.

 

 

 

[cowpip 10]

I decided to close my initial trade a few minutes before the UK news for +40 on the remainder. I've reinstated another long position post-UK news at 79 after seeing price resist further downside moves after the UK news release. Stop is below S1 on your chart.