Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

charlie626

GBP/CHF Very Interesting Around 3am EST

Recommended Posts

I've been tracking GBP/CHF for the month of December and seen it react in one direction or another starting at around 3am. I think this correlates to the 12 noon Swiss time bond yield announcements. I've seen this type of behaviour with the CHF currency for along time now but bother researching it. Was wondering if anyone is familiar with this currency and can confirm what causes it to move so much right at 3am EST? You see it happening in USD/CHF but definitely not to the degree it moves against GBP.

 

Thanks!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For example, last night GBP/CHF started moving right before 3am EST at 1.47885 and within 7 hours reached 1.50000. I use STDEV (close, n=7) to let me know when the pair starts moving and when it crosses a certain STDEV threshold, I trade in the direction of the move. anything below the threshold is considered a false breakout (no matter how good it might look).

 

I'm watching the pair tonight. actually, I have an automated program that runs every 15 minutes, checks STDEV, and sends me a text message when it's crossed the STDEV threshold. I'll post my trade when I make it to (hopefully) get some feedback from the community.

 

I'm really interested to know if this is something that has only started happening or is characteristic of this pair/currency (i.e. CHF).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1/6/2011 2:43:50 AM>Deal Confirmed : 78270348

. You Bought GBP 500,000

, You Bought At 1.50295

, You Sold CHF 751,475

Confirmation #: 78270348

 

Error Description:

Rate: 1.50295

Deal Success: True

PlaceOCOOrder,True,1/5/2011 11:45:46 PM,,GBP/CHF,GBP/CHF,500000,-154.894671623296,775890,751475,1.502950,775890,0.00000,0.00000,S,500000,500000,,

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Charlie

 

I don't think 3am EST = 12 noon Swiss.

 

I look at European markets alot and I might I suggest that at 3:15am EST = 9am - 9:15am swiss time is when alot of the economic releases occur.

 

Hope that helps other significant time would be when LIBOR on EUROSWISS is released (but not that moves much).

 

regards

 

pp

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Charlie

 

3am EST does not = 12 noon Swiss time it is 9am swiss time and 9am or 9:15am tends to be the time of Macro economic releases in Swiss markets.

 

The other time to consider is when Libor is released 11am GMT (this can sometimes add some life) but not that the Euroswiss STIRS markets move much.

 

pp

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You are looking at the London Open.And its GBP that's what is moving units, not the Swissy. The Pound is quite a thinly traded currency and back when I was trading it, had quite a reputation for running stops. Every morning at the open it would find the stops in one direction, then the other, then decide what to do for the day which was usually a 100 pip directional move.So to answer your question, the open is where the most money changes hands and the Pound is easy to push around by the pros with big $$$.Congrats on finding a good strategy to trade it, but I don't think it's CHF thats doing the work.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

awesome information! that makes alot of sense about the stops and the timing coinciding with the market opening. i'll add GBP to the watch list.

 

thanks PP and BW!!!

 

ps: i use the 15-min interval for my stdev. i inadvertently didn't include the interval in my previous post.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

with the 3am news bad for GBP and CHF news at 3:15 good, going short. will get out when the 1st derivitive of the 1hr SMA (n=4) turns positive.

 

here's deal confirmation:

 

 

1/10/2011 3:22:43 AM>Deal Confirmed : 78403234

. You Sold GBP 500,000

, You Sold At 1.49735

, You Bought CHF 748,675

Confirmation #: 78403234

 

Error Description:

Rate: 1.49735

Deal Success: True

PlaceOCOOrder,True,1/10/2011 12:24:43 AM,,GBP/CHF,GBP/CHF,-500000,-155.585520174256,776745,-748675,1.497350,-776745,0.00000,0.00000,B,500000,500000,,

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  Brookwood said:
You are looking at the London Open.And its GBP that's what is moving units, not the Swissy...I don't think it's CHF thats doing the work.

 

I too have been following BOTH pairs and agree it IS the GBP. Thanx Brookwood, for the confirmation of my modest observation.

BTW: if you don't mind, would you share why you stopped trading GBP/USD??

 

Thanx again...Tomaz M.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  charlie626 said:
with the 3am news bad for GBP and CHF news at 3:15 good, going short. will get out when the 1st derivitive of the 1hr SMA (n=4) turns positive.

 

Charlie, I will be keeping an eye to your posts here regarding this set-up as it looks good so far. Just might "borrow" it or parts of it; if you don't mind.

 

Thanx for sharing this info with us.

 

Tomaz M.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi Everyone,

 

Looks like to me that 1.5400 is a ceiling for this pair. I've seen it try to break 1.5400 with no momentum. Lots of sellers there keeping it down. I figure it's been long enough and the pair is overbought. I'm looking for a swing trade ratcheting my stop along the way. At the moment, I put my stop at 1.5400 so it's a free trade. At 3:09am EST, current rate is 1.5350. Here's my trade confirmation:

 

Deal Date, Confirmation #, Buy/Sell, Pair, Contract Rate, Deal Rate

1/21/2011 1:33:01 AM 8123434 Sell GBP/CHF -40,000.00 1.54000

 

I'll keep y'all posted and how it all ends up.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  pathfinder62 said:
... if you don't mind, would you share why you stopped trading GBP/USD??...

One, I stopped trading retail forex altogether. If I trade currencies at all now it is on the futures exchange.

Two, I found some instruments that better suit my trading style and time zone- EST.

Cheers,

BW

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thank BW for that PDF! It seems to still be relevant given that it was written back in 2004. I like the name too - Big Ben Strategy. What I've seen as of late is that in a nice GBP trending market, the setups are very clear. I think during this last GBP/CHF 1.5400 resistance level the market conviction wasn't as clear or as sustained which makes sense considering that it was a significant support level in the past. I'm interested to see how an updated (my own) version of this Big Ben Strategy will look. Give me a few days and i'll see what i can come up with myself. hopefully it's interesting enough to post...

 

  Brookwood said:
Long ago I wrote a detailed post on another forum about this subject but I can't find it.

However I did dig this up from my archives. Its a PDF about trading the London Open reprinted from Currency Trader magazine. Kathy Lien also discusses this strategy in "Day Trading the Currency Market"

Cheers,

BW

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Great speech by Governor King on January 25th. Here's the link if anyone is interested in starting a conversation on it. http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/speeches/2011/speech471.pdf He was talking about the domestic impact of inflation on how the monetary policy plays a role in the overall State's economic health.

 

FYI, we also have manufacturing, construction, and services PMI coming out this week. should be interesting... I'll try to post my trades as i make them.

 

good luck all!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  charlie626 said:

FYI, we also have manufacturing, construction, and services PMI coming out this week. should be interesting... I'll try to post my trades as i make them.

 

good luck all!

 

That would be great Charlie. Are you a news Trader? Could you tell us a little about your strat/system?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • YUM Yum Brands stock, nice breakout with volume +34.5%, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?YUM
    • Date: 3rd April 2025.   Gold Prices Pull Back After Record High as Traders Eye Trump’s Tariffs.   Key Takeaways:   Gold prices retreated after hitting a record high of $3,167.57 per ounce due to profit-taking. President Trump announced a 10% baseline tariff on all US imports, escalating trade tensions. Gold remains exempt from reciprocal tariffs, reinforcing its safe-haven appeal. Investors await US non-farm payroll data for further market direction. Fed rate cut bets and weaker US Treasury yields underpin gold’s bullish outlook. Gold Prices Retreat from Record Highs Amid Profit-Taking Gold prices saw a pullback on Thursday as traders opted to take profits following a historic surge. Spot gold declined 0.4% to $3,122.10 per ounce as of 0710 GMT, retreating from its fresh all-time high of $3,167.57. Meanwhile, US gold futures slipped 0.7% to $3,145.00 per ounce, reflecting broader market uncertainty over economic and geopolitical developments.   The recent rally was largely fueled by concerns over escalating trade tensions after President Donald Trump unveiled sweeping new import tariffs. The 10% baseline tariff on all goods entering the US further deepened the global trade conflict, intensifying investor demand for safe-haven assets like gold. However, as traders locked in gains from the surge, prices saw a modest retracement.   Trump’s Tariffs and Their Market Implications On Wednesday, Trump introduced a sweeping tariff policy imposing a 10% baseline duty on all imports, with significantly higher tariffs on select nations. While this move was aimed at bolstering domestic manufacturing, it sent shockwaves across global markets, fueling inflation concerns and heightening trade war fears.   Gold’s Role Amid Trade War Escalations Despite the widespread tariff measures, the White House clarified that reciprocal tariffs do not apply to gold, energy, and ‘certain minerals that are not available in the US’. This exemption suggests that central banks and institutional investors may continue favouring gold as a hedge against economic instability. One of the key factors supporting gold is the slowdown that these tariffs could cause in the US economy, which raises the likelihood of future Federal Reserve rate cuts. Gold is currently in a pure momentum trade. Market participants are on the sidelines and until we see a significant shakeout, this momentum could persist.   Impact on the US Dollar and Bond Yields Gold prices typically move inversely to the US dollar, and the latest developments have pushed the dollar to its weakest level since October 2024. Market participants are increasingly pricing in the possibility of a Fed rate cut, as the tariffs could weigh on economic growth.   Additionally, US Treasury yields have plummeted, reflecting growing recession fears. Lower bond yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, making it a more attractive investment.         Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch Gold’s recent rally has pushed it into overbought territory, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 70. This indicates a potential short-term pullback before the uptrend resumes. The immediate support level lies at $3,115, aligning with the Asian session low. A further decline could bring gold towards the $3,100 psychological level, which has previously acted as a strong support zone. Below this, the $3,076–$3,057 region represents a critical weekly support range where buyers may re-enter the market. In the event of a more significant correction, $3,000 stands as a major psychological floor.   On the upside, gold faces immediate resistance at $3,149. A break above this level could signal renewed bullish momentum, potentially leading to a retest of the record high at $3,167. If bullish momentum persists, the next target is the $3,200 psychological barrier, which could pave the way for further gains. Despite the recent pullback, the broader trend remains bullish, with dips likely to be viewed as buying opportunities.   Looking Ahead: Non-Farm Payrolls and Fed Policy Traders are closely monitoring Friday’s US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report, which could provide critical insights into the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves. A weaker-than-expected jobs report may strengthen expectations for an interest rate cut, further boosting gold prices.   Other key economic data releases, such as jobless claims and the ISM Services PMI, may also impact market sentiment in the short term. However, with rising geopolitical uncertainties, trade tensions, and a weakening US dollar, gold’s safe-haven appeal remains strong.   Conclusion: While short-term profit-taking may trigger minor corrections, gold’s long-term outlook remains bullish. As global trade tensions mount and the Federal Reserve leans toward a more accommodative stance, gold could see further gains in the months ahead.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Andria Pichidi HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • AMZN Amazon stock, nice buying at the 187.26 triple+ support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?AMZN
    • DELL Dell Technologies stock, good day moving higher off the 90.99 double support area, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?DELL
    • MCK Mckesson stock, nice trend and continuation breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?MCK
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.