GBP/CHF Very Interesting Around 3am EST

[charlie626 10]

I've been tracking GBP/CHF for the month of December and seen it react in one direction or another starting at around 3am. I think this correlates to the 12 noon Swiss time bond yield announcements. I've seen this type of behaviour with the CHF currency for along time now but bother researching it. Was wondering if anyone is familiar with this currency and can confirm what causes it to move so much right at 3am EST? You see it happening in USD/CHF but definitely not to the degree it moves against GBP.

 

Thanks!

[charlie626 10]

For example, last night GBP/CHF started moving right before 3am EST at 1.47885 and within 7 hours reached 1.50000. I use STDEV (close, n=7) to let me know when the pair starts moving and when it crosses a certain STDEV threshold, I trade in the direction of the move. anything below the threshold is considered a false breakout (no matter how good it might look).

 

I'm watching the pair tonight. actually, I have an automated program that runs every 15 minutes, checks STDEV, and sends me a text message when it's crossed the STDEV threshold. I'll post my trade when I make it to (hopefully) get some feedback from the community.

 

I'm really interested to know if this is something that has only started happening or is characteristic of this pair/currency (i.e. CHF).

[charlie626 10]

1/6/2011 2:43:50 AM>Deal Confirmed : 78270348

. You Bought GBP 500,000

, You Bought At 1.50295

, You Sold CHF 751,475

Confirmation #: 78270348

 

Error Description:

Rate: 1.50295

Deal Success: True

PlaceOCOOrder,True,1/5/2011 11:45:46 PM,,GBP/CHF,GBP/CHF,500000,-154.894671623296,775890,751475,1.502950,775890,0.00000,0.00000,S,500000,500000,,

[Piv0tPoint 10]

Charlie

 

I don't think 3am EST = 12 noon Swiss.

 

I look at European markets alot and I might I suggest that at 3:15am EST = 9am - 9:15am swiss time is when alot of the economic releases occur.

 

Hope that helps other significant time would be when LIBOR on EUROSWISS is released (but not that moves much).

 

regards

 

pp

[Piv0tPoint 10]

Charlie

 

3am EST does not = 12 noon Swiss time it is 9am swiss time and 9am or 9:15am tends to be the time of Macro economic releases in Swiss markets.

 

The other time to consider is when Libor is released 11am GMT (this can sometimes add some life) but not that the Euroswiss STIRS markets move much.

 

pp

[Brookwood 10]

You are looking at the London Open.And its GBP that's what is moving units, not the Swissy. The Pound is quite a thinly traded currency and back when I was trading it, had quite a reputation for running stops. Every morning at the open it would find the stops in one direction, then the other, then decide what to do for the day which was usually a 100 pip directional move.So to answer your question, the open is where the most money changes hands and the Pound is easy to push around by the pros with big $$$.Congrats on finding a good strategy to trade it, but I don't think it's CHF thats doing the work.

[charlie626 10]

awesome information! that makes alot of sense about the stops and the timing coinciding with the market opening. i'll add GBP to the watch list.

 

thanks PP and BW!!!

 

ps: i use the 15-min interval for my stdev. i inadvertently didn't include the interval in my previous post.

[charlie626 10]

i'm back to the ol' GBPCHF after a nice weekend off. waiting for the 3:00am EST GBP news and 3:15 am EST CHF news. then wait for the breakout and see what happens.

[charlie626 10]

with the 3am news bad for GBP and CHF news at 3:15 good, going short. will get out when the 1st derivitive of the 1hr SMA (n=4) turns positive.

 

here's deal confirmation:

 

 

1/10/2011 3:22:43 AM>Deal Confirmed : 78403234

. You Sold GBP 500,000

, You Sold At 1.49735

, You Bought CHF 748,675

Confirmation #: 78403234

 

Error Description:

Rate: 1.49735

Deal Success: True

PlaceOCOOrder,True,1/10/2011 12:24:43 AM,,GBP/CHF,GBP/CHF,-500000,-155.585520174256,776745,-748675,1.497350,-776745,0.00000,0.00000,B,500000,500000,,

[pathfinder62 10]

You are looking at the London Open.And its GBP that's what is moving units, not the Swissy...I don't think it's CHF thats doing the work.

 

I too have been following BOTH pairs and agree it IS the GBP. Thanx Brookwood, for the confirmation of my modest observation.

BTW: if you don't mind, would you share why you stopped trading GBP/USD??

 

Thanx again...Tomaz M.

[pathfinder62 10]

with the 3am news bad for GBP and CHF news at 3:15 good, going short. will get out when the 1st derivitive of the 1hr SMA (n=4) turns positive.

 

Charlie, I will be keeping an eye to your posts here regarding this set-up as it looks good so far. Just might "borrow" it or parts of it; if you don't mind.

 

Thanx for sharing this info with us.

 

Tomaz M.

[charlie626 10]

Hi Everyone,

 

Looks like to me that 1.5400 is a ceiling for this pair. I've seen it try to break 1.5400 with no momentum. Lots of sellers there keeping it down. I figure it's been long enough and the pair is overbought. I'm looking for a swing trade ratcheting my stop along the way. At the moment, I put my stop at 1.5400 so it's a free trade. At 3:09am EST, current rate is 1.5350. Here's my trade confirmation:

 

Deal Date, Confirmation #, Buy/Sell, Pair, Contract Rate, Deal Rate

1/21/2011 1:33:01 AM 8123434 Sell GBP/CHF -40,000.00 1.54000

 

I'll keep y'all posted and how it all ends up.

[charlie626 10]

At 4:54am EST, set my stop to 1.5312. current rate at 1.5292...

[Brookwood 10]

... if you don't mind, would you share why you stopped trading GBP/USD??...

One, I stopped trading retail forex altogether. If I trade currencies at all now it is on the futures exchange.

Two, I found some instruments that better suit my trading style and time zone- EST.

Cheers,

BW

[Mysticforex 13]

Charlie,

 

Here is a link to a free service that will send you an SMS when XXX price is hit on a pair you select. The pair selection is not very large, but it does include GBP/CHF.

 

Price Alerts

[Brookwood 10]

Long ago I wrote a detailed post on another forum about this subject but I can't find it.

However I did dig this up from my archives. Its a PDF about trading the London Open reprinted from Currency Trader magazine. Kathy Lien also discusses this strategy in "Day Trading the Currency Market"

Cheers,

BW

BigBenStrategy.pdf

[charlie626 10]

Thank BW for that PDF! It seems to still be relevant given that it was written back in 2004. I like the name too - Big Ben Strategy. What I've seen as of late is that in a nice GBP trending market, the setups are very clear. I think during this last GBP/CHF 1.5400 resistance level the market conviction wasn't as clear or as sustained which makes sense considering that it was a significant support level in the past. I'm interested to see how an updated (my own) version of this Big Ben Strategy will look. Give me a few days and i'll see what i can come up with myself. hopefully it's interesting enough to post...

 

Long ago I wrote a detailed post on another forum about this subject but I can't find it.

However I did dig this up from my archives. Its a PDF about trading the London Open reprinted from Currency Trader magazine. Kathy Lien also discusses this strategy in "Day Trading the Currency Market"

Cheers,

BW

[charlie626 10]

Great speech by Governor King on January 25th. Here's the link if anyone is interested in starting a conversation on it. http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/speeches/2011/speech471.pdf He was talking about the domestic impact of inflation on how the monetary policy plays a role in the overall State's economic health.

 

FYI, we also have manufacturing, construction, and services PMI coming out this week. should be interesting... I'll try to post my trades as i make them.

 

good luck all!

[Mysticforex 13]

FYI, we also have manufacturing, construction, and services PMI coming out this week. should be interesting... I'll try to post my trades as i make them.

 

good luck all!

 

That would be great Charlie. Are you a news Trader? Could you tell us a little about your strat/system?