Round TWO - Predict the Market Close Contest - Win $$$

[MadMarketScientist 11]

We just finished version 1.0 of this contest and we'll have three lucky winners of Amazon Gift Cards (top value: $500!) -- predicting the year end closes of the INDU, SPX and COMPX.

 

So let's do it again. Starting right now predict the closing prices of the Down Jones (INDU), S&P 500 (SPX) and the Nasdaq Composite (COMPX) at the end of the first quarter -- March, 31st 2011.

 

You simply reply to this thread with your predictions and if you feel like it tells us about the tea leaves or psychic powers you used to come up with your numbers, or maybe actual financial analysis (guess).....

 

This is Contest #1.

 

The Contest #2 for the ultimate Market Grand Wizard is to predict the exact same indices closing prices -- but this time at December 31st, 2011. End of the year.

 

You can enter one or both - just clarify in your forum reply which your numbers are for. Quarter end or year end.

 

How about prizes you say?

 

Contest #1 - Quarterly Close

First Prize: $250 Amazon.com Gift Card

Second Prize: $100 Amazon.com Gift Card

Third Prize: $50 Amazon.com Gift Card

 

Contest #2 - Yearly Close

First Prize: $1,000 Amazon.com Gift Card

 

This one it's all about being #1 -- so it's one mega grand prize.

 

There are a few catches.

 

Catch #1: We must have at least 30 entries for the quarterly contest. So get your TL buddies or other trading friends to post their submissions here. We have to have at least 30 and the contest is a go. And, the deadline to submit for the quarterly contest is Tuesday, January 11th.

 

Catch #2: For the Annual contest we need at least 50 entries -- and those are due no later than January 31st.

 

Catch #3: The winner will be determined by the suggestions of fell TL member Blowfish, by taking the closing price in each index, calculating the difference between your prediction and the close and then adding those up. The person with the lowest number(s) wins it. This way you are rewarded for being accurate across the board.

 

 

Whomever is the closest when we add all three of these market indices closing prices will be crowned the TradersLaboratory.com Market Prediction Champion (TLMPC!!!)

 

You can only enter one time per person and there are no "Editing" of your post allowed (nice try.) However, seek out your trading friends and have them enter and then demand a percentage when they win as your finder's fee. Remember we need enough entrants for us to just give away all that dough.

 

Ready, set, predict!

 

MMS

[SIUYA 11]

For both the end of the Quarter and the end of the year

SPX 1260

COMPX 2265

INDU 11570

 

Basically the prices as at the end of the year 2010 as I have no method of predicting future prices.

thanks.

[thalestrader 14]

I'll have my quarterly guess ready by the 11th, and my guess for the year end ready by the end of the month. I sure hope we manage to get the required number of participants - after all, this is essentially a "risk-free trade" ... and since the market won't give us one, we may as well take advantage of MMS's generosity when he sends one our way!

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Hi Folks,

 

There are only three more days to get in your guesses for the quarterly Guess the Close. I would hope we could come up with the 30 participants on a Trading forum with hundreds of unique visitors everyday so that we can make a go of the contest.

 

Here is my guess for the quarterly, March 31, 2011 Guess the Close:

 

SPX: 1313.25

INDU: 12036.24

COMPX: 2862.51

 

My guess for the 2011 Year End Guess the Close will be in by January 31, 2011.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[MadMarketScientist 11]

We've got a long way to go! Remind people in other threads to get their predictions in -- it's about the best odds around to win something!

 

MMS

[Cory2679 11]

I'm in...but my entry will be in Tuesday.

 

I'm shocked at the lack of participation thus far! A risk-free trade on a trading website!

 

Maybe everyone here is just so rich that it's not worth the few seconds of their time to enter a guess...

 

I would have thought there would be more participation that this even if there wasn't a prize...just for the fun of the competition...

[snowbird 10]

For Mar 31st

 

SPX 1201

COMPX 2505

INDU 11997

 

Two days and only 27 more people to go!

 

snowbird

[StevenSJC 10]

Here's my guesstimate for the quarterly close:

 

Dow 12,492

SPX 1,361

NDX 2,892

 

Remain bullish at this time. I think this will be a solid year overall not without its hiccups but what year isn't. So, I have to assume we'll still have some momentum left for a push up sometime Q1.

[TradeRunner 10]

My guess for end of the first quarter:

 

INDU 12400

SPX 1330

COMPX 2930

[Frostyx7 10]

first qtr

INDU 11700

SPX 1298

COMPX 2810

 

annual close

INDU 12745

SPX 1450

COMPX 3205

[thalestrader 14]

Hi Folks,

 

Just a reminder that tday is the last day to get your guess in for the quarterly guess the close contest.

 

Remember, it doesn't cost you anything to play, and I can attest to the fact that Mad Market Scientist and TL does indeed pay out on the prizes. First prize is a $250 Amazon.com gift card - surely there is a trading book you've been thinking of buying but you don't want to waste your own money on what may turn out to be another iece of garbage - well, here's your chance to have TL buy it for you. Or perhaps there is some game, gadget, or gizmo you've been wanting to try. $250 will more than buy you a Kindle, and it is almost halfway to to an iPad. So get those entries in, folks!

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[forrestang 10]

Hi Folks,

$250 will more than buy you a Kindle, and it is almost halfway to to an iPad.

 

I recently purchased a book on Kindle for PC. One of the worst experiences I've had with a book. I hate Kindle and it's format with a passion!!! :crap:

 

My pessimistic closes for 1st Quart:

 

INDU =>11460

SPX => 1230

COMPX = 2600

[ahimsa 10]

hello,very nice idea,this contest!

ladies and gentleman i try to throw my prediction.

 

for the first quarter my guess is

 

 

SPX 1189,40

INDU 1106,10

COMPX 2469,84

 

 

annual close my guess is

 

SPX 1425,35

INDU 12773,25

COMPX 3109,28

[thalestrader 14]

well, we only need another 21 forum lurkers to convert themselves into at least one time forum participants to make the quarterly contest a go. So how about it folks? If you find yourself coming to TL repeatedly because you find some value and interest, why not join in for the opportunity to perhaps win 5 ES points worth of Amazon.com shopping?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Edited January 12, 2011 by thalestrader

[Cory2679 11]

Here's my entry for the quarterly contest...

 

Dow: 11,671.88

S&P: 1,274.48

Nasdaq: 2,716.83

 

Today's closing prices...I thought I'd give last contest's strategy another shot...maybe I'll have better luck this time...

[Cory2679 11]

well, we only need another 21 forum lurkers to convert themselves into at least one time forum participants to make the quarterly contest a go. So how about it folks? If you find yourself coming to TL repeatedly because you find some value and interest, why not join in for the opportunity to perhaps win 5 ES points worth of Amazon.com shopping?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

And if you hate Amazon.com for some reason, that's no reason not to enter the contest...you can always sell your gift card on ebay or a site like plasticjungle.com...

 

EDIT: Ok, it looks like plastic jungle doesn't list Amazon.com as one of their accepted retailers, but I'm sure there's something like it out there that does.

Edited January 12, 2011 by Cory2679

[Hlm 10]

Why not....

 

Q1

 

SPX 1050

INDU 10200

COMPX 2200

[thalestrader 14]

Why not....

 

My point, exactly!

 

It looks like we're short of a full roster ... maybe MMS will extend the quarterly deadline a bit or else let the contest roll with only 10 players.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Hlm 10]

Maybe until market close on Friday?

 

What he should have done (or do in the future)...

 

Instead of having that front page popup to register/login, he should have (for a couple of days) a short description and link to this forum. Just a thought. Especially if he could make the popup a one time thing per user.

 

----edit/added below----

 

OR just use the top ad banner space for a few days.

Either way, I would suggest a slight adjustment to the naming of the thread next time by starting with "CONTEST"

 

For example...

CONTEST: Guess the Market Close for Q1 2011

CONTEST: Guess the Market Close for End of Year 2011

Edited January 12, 2011 by Hlm
Added last part.

[traderwilliam 10]

Spx 1102

indu 10715

compx 2315

[JBWTrader 10]

Hi Folks not sure if I have missed the boat.

 

For March deadine

 

SPX: 1275

INDU: 11800

COMPX: 2810

 

End of year

 

SPX: 1150

INDU: 10500

COMPX: 2100

 

thanks

 

Best

John

[MadMarketScientist 11]

We're getting there I'm willing to extend the deadline another day or two and see if we can get the number -- slowly but surely we might be. Get your forum friends in here -- how hard is it to predict a few numbers right

 

I'd be in there if I could qualify!

 

MMS

[Head2k 10]

Indu 11000

spx 1175

compx 2125

[Phil Mibbutz 10]

Being an eternal optimist:

 

Dow, 9999.99

SP, 1046

Nas, 2158

[PrymeTyme 10]

For Both Quaterly and at the end of the year

 

 

 

SPX: 1157.59

INDU: 10998.40

COMPX: 2495.70

 

good luck all...