week 1 - 2007

[torero 10]

Well, Happy New Year everyone and looks we're starting the year with a big bang (gap LOL). I went long right after the gap.

 

 

I have seen a few positive patterns to make me go bullish. Both triangles in daily and weekly are in play, both with target just above 2.000. This is a big big big resistance area so we'll see if George Soros want to short again here LOL! Different times and different scenarios. We'll see.

 

 

[Anna-Maria 10]

Hey Torero!

 

A Happy New Year to you (& everyone), hope 07 is a big pip returner!!

 

Straight out the blocks this month huh?

 

I'm not back into the swing as yet, markets still a little subdued on the liquidity side for my liking - but the techs sure played ball this morning by the looks.

 

Price running out of steam at the 618 extension. Those 2 ext levels looked like good zones to book a little profit huh?

 

You still riding it, or did you cover already.

 

[torero 10]

Hi Tex! Happy New Year and hope you had a great holiday with your loved ones as I did!

 

I'm still on the trade. Originally it was a meant for a 9743 area as target. But seeing the bigger picture on daily and weekly, I'm placing a breakeven stop and let the bigger pattern (triangles on daily and weekly) take this trade. Taking this action, I'm wondering if my stop is foolish and should move it to an appropriate area on the daily and/or weekly chart. What do you think?

 

I've seen traders turn a winning trade from an intraday to a swing (but I've seen newbies doing the opposite... taking the loser from intraday to swing). Think it's a good idea? If it doesn't work out, I'd break even, so no risk to me. One of my new resolution was to ride the winners longer.

[pipMonster 10]

Happy New Year to everyone!

 

Torero - very nice trade. I would take a portion of your profits off at 9743 if you haven't already and trail by a swing low or two on the 60-min chart. This is a good trade, you don't want to let it off the hook at break even.

 

Texxas,

 

I took the night(morning?) off and just observed as I thought the thin market would lead to some unpredictable movement. This move looked pretty predictable in hindsight.

 

I'm looking forward to a fantastic 2007. I learned an incredible amount last year from you, Buk, Bonza and Cowpip.

 

-pipMonster

[Anna-Maria 10]

Hey Jack!

 

I'm sure you'll attract a whole sack of pips this year!!

 

 

torero: Attempting to run the larger swing returns will occasionally involve the necessity of larger stop placement. Unfortunately, it's not always possible to run these intraday entries into bigger potential swing moves without some adjustment of initial risk as the picture develops.

 

It's merely a trade-off. You have to decide whether you're gonna take a little profit off the table on the initial leg (as Jack mentioned) & compound back as price breaks thru your staged s&r levels - or trail the stops once price moves away, & counter trade any moves back against your primary position by 'jobbing' via the smaller timeframes?

 

That will obviously be dictated by the size of your account & your overall aims & objectives.

 

It's tough watching an initial c1.5 cent profit position slowly erode as price shuffles back & forth thru the intraday levels...but that's just the way it goes.

 

Unless you're willing to trade the intraday oscillations against your main swing position and/or keep your stops well hidden from the fire, then you're in for some pretty frustrating sessions in front of the screens.

 

A good percentage of your intended (larger) swing moves will fail to kick on. The healthy profits are returned (in our experience) by compounding aggressively into the ones which develop & kick on quickly.

 

I run a dual strat as normal practice. If an intraday entry looks like morphing into a potential larger swing move, I'll babysit the trade for a day or so, then leave it be. All it'll require then is managing.

 

A case of then reverting to the intraday strat/account & playing the opportunities as they arise during normal market conditions. But then, that practice has been part & parcel of our methodology for a good lick of time.

 

Like anything, it requires practice & a solid psychological base!!

[Anna-Maria 10]

But seeing the bigger picture on daily and weekly, I'm placing a breakeven stop and let the bigger pattern (triangles on daily and weekly) take this trade.

 

Taking this action, I'm wondering if my stop is foolish and should move it to an appropriate area on the daily and/or weekly chart. What do you think?

 

If it doesn't work out, I'd break even, so no risk to me.

 

9750 is the fulcrum here for sure.

 

Bust that niggly resistance line & it looks good for another cent up on the ladder. If you stand on the side of the current fundamentals, then Sterling (& Euro) appear well placed to run the buck ragged during 1st Quarter?

 

$ Bears will certainly rip into it should this round of data come in shy. The Dec highs will set the stage for me should this 9750 hurdle crumble.

[torero 10]

I had suspected moving from intraday to swing might be a total change in targets/stops, etc. I had thought this would be a good exercise for myself how this would work out. True I had my stop placed under the top of the New Year gap. Might not fly in the 240min or daily chart. But I already missed the exit at 9743. So, might as well hold out this pullback and see how it goes. I'm watching the daily triangle confirming the breakout, so still bullish, only problem/concern is where will the pullback stop and turn upwards again. hmmmm.

[Anna-Maria 10]

The sub 240m charts are very noisy. Not surprising given the thin markets leading into Dec.

 

I guess reading the harder lines off the 240 & drilling down to maybe a 30-15min reference will offer a clearer view as price bounces around these important s&r lines.

 

It's always pretty gusty when we return from extended holidays/thin volume environments, as most of the big cats are still trickling in & taking a look around at the current scenario.

 

Get this week in the can & things will begin to balance out a bit more.

 

 

[pipMonster 10]

So true Texxas.

 

Cowpip and I just spent the last couple of hours nursing trades in this noise. I got in pre-London open and managed to escape with my skin. It's very noisy.

 

These rest of this week should be quite interesting.

 

What's your take on the possibility of the US raising rates in Q1?

 

-Jack

[Anna-Maria 10]

 

What's your take on the possibility of the US raising rates in Q1?

 

Jack

 

Remember guy's, don't neglect or forget to take a peek at the crosses if you're seeking alternative (longer) swing candidates??

 

The GBP & Euro pairs are continuing to display decent opportunities due to their strong fundamental bias.

 

Take a look at one or two of those instruments on the 240/60m frames, they're adhering well to the 'trend bar stacking' behaviour on their respective journey's.

 

Jack: I feel the UK & Eurozone regions are best placed to hike rates in the near term as opposed to our (U.S) internal situation.

 

If anything, the rates differential could well contract between Sterling/Euro & the buck, thus eroding further the Dollars hierarchy.

 

As ever, the Data will confirm that particular outlook!!

[torero 10]

Ouch! Lesson learned: don't change timeframes in winners or losers.

 

 

I'm going to look to fill the gap here.

[torero 10]

Not sure if this dropped was news-driven or not but certainly swing trades are tough when it has to deal with news wild swings, something I didn't consider before. Intraday might be my best bet since I'm not good at accepting wide stops.

[pipMonster 10]

This was indeed a news driven drop. US ISM data was posted this morning and it was $ positive for the most part. The ISM Manufacturing Index was higher than 50 which shows expansion. Construction spending was up also. Two good signs the US economy is not dead. Combine that with better than expected housing numbers at the end of last month and you have some reasons for $ strength.

[torero 10]

Thanks for the info. I usually don't follow news, but follow when it was to be announced. Swing trading is a bit difficult when interruptions like this break the mood and momentum. I may go back and stay with smaller frames. Good learning experience for $0. Not a bad education eh?

[Anna-Maria 10]

There are certainly enough opportunities out there every week to satisfy every conceivable style of trading.

 

What suits one, doesn't necessarily suit another. Experimenting with & exploring options are part of the business.

 

Horses for courses as they say

[Anna-Maria 10]

I guess this type of activity will sit comfortably with your outlook torero

 

Continuation signals on the weak overnight action - failure to penetrate back thru the near term Fib resistance lines - well below the day's main pivot zone - threatening the larger 4hr range supports (9450) & Fib ext targets from the arrowed H-L mini swing down to c9425/9385.

 

I doubt it will have the strength to climb back towards the Tokyo low @ 9492, given the strength of the penetration bar out of the bear flag pattern. And if this 4hr bottom range collapses, this could weaken pretty quickly.

 

[pipMonster 10]

I was fortunate tonight in catching the ride down from 9495 to 9410 for +85 on 1/3 and a scale out at +20 for 2/3. I'm quite happy with this gaggle of pips tonight. I expect this week to be a bit thin still so I'm not trying to turn anything into a swing trade.

 

Early on I thought I had missed the boat as price climbed up to 9525 from the firm rejection off 9490.

 

It never ceases to amaze me how quickly things can change in this market. In fact, other than for purely technical reasons, I don't have any idea why price moved as far and as quickly as it did besides residual $ buying from earlier ISM data or re-weighting of portfolios. This can just as easily shoot right back up with a bit of weak data from US ISM, Factory Orders and NFP on Friday.

 

I guess we'll wait and see.

[torero 10]

I missed this bear flag completely. There were missing data in Tradestation since FOMC news yesterday and still seeing holds here and there. Hopefully I can get it corrected soon. Big moves and I'm not in it. To be honest, I was a bit how large a move to the other direction for me and wasn't really prepared to go short. But I have to correct this chart before doing anything.

[torero 10]

Very nice Monster! You got the good end of the trading the news.

[Anna-Maria 10]

I'm quite happy with this gaggle of pips tonight. I expect this week to be a bit thin still so I'm not trying to turn anything into a swing trade.

 

In fact, other than for purely technical reasons, I don't have any idea why price moved as far and as quickly as it did besides residual $ buying from earlier ISM data or re-weighting of portfolios. This can just as easily shoot right back up with a bit of weak data from US ISM, Factory Orders and NFP on Friday.

 

 

Not a bad stance to adopt under the circumstances Jack! Nice trade btw.

 

Any slight emotive shift whilst the volumes are returning to near normal levels, will accelerate these nervy runs back & forth thru the range.

 

The bars & patterns are certainly still playable, especially at the regular range/days extremes etc, & I guess either cautious stake deployment or sensible paring/exits are the order of the day until the markets top up on liquidity!

[pipMonster 10]

Well the US data came and went this morning without the $ losing much ground to the other majors, cable in particular. Factory Orders were enough to offset the disappointing numbers of the ISM data and surprisingly weak UK consumer confidence data.

 

We could see further $ gains in this thin market condition before NFP data is released into the wild on Friday. Looks to be plenty of 'clear air' below from the 240-min perspective. I wouldn't be surprised if $ bulls pulled the same trick $ bears used just before the US Thanksgiving holiday. If the $ bulls push price a bit further down and get some decent stops to trigger, there could be a nice little run down to ~9180-9200 area.

[torero 10]

I agree, looks like another bear flag is at work again, a continuation pattern. Let's see how it does overnight before London opens.

 

[Anna-Maria 10]

We could see further $ gains in this thin market condition before NFP data is released into the wild on Friday. Looks to be plenty of 'clear air' below from the 240-min perspective.

 

Tokyo sure took advantage again during their shift huh? Driving it down to the 161 small range Fib, which is also a confluence (50%) Fib from the 8830 leg up in Nov to the Dec highs.

 

Unfortunately, Asia doesn't always play ball so perfectly, but when it does it often behaves pretty good from a tech perspective! Shame we have to sleep No wonder Buk likes this timezone so much!!

 

[torero 10]

Yes I missed this one too. I have set alarms in the past for any overnight moves that may happen, unfortunately, most of the time they were short lived moves, especially when London was near.

[torero 10]

Is this the 2nd chance? Just took a short here and see how it does.