week 1 - 2007

[Anna-Maria 10]

For me, the optimum trade has been & gone with that chipper move during Tokyo. An hourly inside bar printed at the mornings low + a long legged doji on the 15m has printed at the S1 torero.

 

I'm not saying it won't drop back, but the sub hourlies look a tad strong to me leading into the London Open?

[Anna-Maria 10]

I like to see weakness on any retracement (in line with the short trend) if prices have attempted a kickback thru a prev range low, such as y'days low.

 

The 240m & subsequent swift move back up on the sub hourly was looking quite aggressive into the London shift.

 

The Tokyo top could well cap it, but with NFP printing later, we might just be in for some consolidation?

 

 

[pipMonster 10]

Ugh. I got stuck for a loss tonight on cable. Unfortunately, I didn't see it the same way as Texxas.

 

It's upsetting, but I can't win 'em all. I learned something from this trade which is the important part.

[torero 10]

I gotta start looking at another pair, apparently this has been trading extremely well. I'm going to keep an eye on it more. Need another pair to trade more actively. I've managed to trade 2x a week with GBPUSD. 4-5x seems reasonable, especially at this beautiful move like this one.

 

[Buk 10]

I like to see weakness on any retracement (in line with the short trend) if prices have attempted a kickback thru a prev range low, such as y'days low.

 

The 240m & subsequent swift move back up on the sub hourly was looking quite aggressive into the London shift.

 

 

I'll have my workstation back now you've finished fiddling with it.....where have me wkly-mthly pivots disappeared to?!?

 

that daily fibo @ 1.9340 has shouldered it this morning, but the Bulls won't require too much encouragement to gun for 61.8 @ 9220 if the payrolls put in a decent showing.........

 

bout time they ran it up to blow off the dollar short build up......this current level, the mid daily fib, is quite a busy fulcrum zone.....we have some weekly s&r hiding @ 9270-90 & they'll try run it back up there if the wind blows South into early next week..........

 

otherwise, back thru todays pivot @ 9457 see's us inside the 4hr range again & it's back to 'who shoves hardest'...............

[Anna-Maria 10]

I'll have my workstation back now you've finished fiddling with it.....where have me wkly-mthly pivots disappeared to?!?

 

......this current level, the mid daily fib, is quite a busy fulcrum zone.....we have some weekly s&r hiding @ 9270-90 & they'll try run it back up there if the wind blows South into early next week..........

 

 

Ooops :o I must have deleted those when I was trying to configer today's pivots for you.

 

Agree re: this Fib-pivot confluence zone. 9435 is also a weekly (23.6) Fib from back at the June 25, 8085 upkick - so this area is drawing some heat.

 

Be glad to see the back of todays NFP to be honest, it might just iron out one or two of these each-way levels into Jan.

[Buk 10]

 

What's your take on the possibility of the US raising rates in Q1?

 

 

unless we (the U.S) perform way above expectations & the data begins to turn a hardy shade of green, I wouldn't bank on any rate hikes in the States any time soon Jack. In fact, I'd hedge my bets to the opposite camp in current conditions....

 

The UK economy is chugging along handsomely, and in some (Bank talking heads) quarters, warrants at least 2 more hikes to temper Browns inflation barometer for this year..........

 

Germany, the EU's main yardstick, is within a hairs breath of registering +2% inflation count with their introduction of a 3% internal price tax from Jan 2.......you can bet old Tricky Dicky (Trichet) will begin snorting & cussing & banging his rate gavel hard on the desk if their inflation numbers burn too brightly..........

 

talk of the Japs also murmering into the rates hike pot, will surely encourage their big dog (overseas) investors to begin buying back Yen etc etc etc.......

 

doesn't really leave the Fed too much wiggle room huh?.........so, all that to-ing & fro-ing & we witness the buck on a trot of late?!!..........one or two savvy long term swingers will be looking at these current Cable/Euro levels & licking their rouge red lips I shouldn't wonder :p

 

sure, the fundamentals often take a while to register, & emotive exuberance generally over-rides the "obvious".......but sooner or later, unless the picture begins to change clearly in favor of Stateside positives, those big wooly snarling $ Bears will begin to claw again!!.............

[torero 10]

This is too funny. All this time, tex was mentioning Buk, I thought she was talking about $ LOL! I couldn't make sense some of the things she was saying until now! Silly me, I'm very slow to get things.

 

It's quite an honor to have a tag-team to provide some excellent insight! I hope you both stick around as I'm still learning the ropes in forex.

 

Tex, you were right on after I made the short this morning, it went nowhere and not going until the NFP is issued. I always wondered why it has such a big impact like the FOMC news in terms of price volatility?

 

Great to have you on board Buk!

[Buk 10]

Tex, you were right on after I made the short this morning, it went nowhere and not going until the NFP is issued. I always wondered why it has such a big impact like the FOMC news in terms of price volatility?

 

Great to have you on board Buk!

 

hey there torero!!..........

 

yeah, she has "her moments" LOL.........

 

thanks for the welcome, look forward to swapping a few posts on here!

 

good luck with your journey

[Anna-Maria 10]

That will have tripped a bunch of stops under 9390 then huh?

 

Breathing hot on your weekly s&r zone now mister!

[Buk 10]

looks that way yeah..........see where it settles when the gunslingers run out of bullets!

 

next batch @ 9220 then now!

[Anna-Maria 10]

A whole cackle of neutral bars printing down here on the 5 thru 30m frames - holding at your weekly support line.

 

Like to see an hourly doji print here too to offer a little balance.

 

Might try a wee speculator entry back towards the S1 pivot zone @ 325.

[Buk 10]

okey dokey.......good a place as any I guess.....you need 9310 at your back really, but long as your fingers primed on the exit, shouldn't do too much harm to test it here!

[Anna-Maria 10]

Got 298, I'll trim out up here for +20 & even the rest out @ the b/e.

 

See if they've sufficient balls to run it.

[Anna-Maria 10]

Oughta be good for a blast to the mornings (Asian) low if it can cut thru this clack.

 

Needs to hurdle the prev 15m neutral bar though. Don;t ya just love these claggy Friday NFP gigs

[Anna-Maria 10]

Big Barn Door @ 325. That's a wrap till Monday then.

 

Akin to pulling hens teeth this morning, this is best left to the mop-up brigade!

[Buk 10]

yeah, the Bulls have the park for now.....approaching a confluence on the daily lower down the ladder....might be a better zone to stick a finger in the air, see how the land lies next week........

 

[torero 10]

Buk, Tex, Looking back at this news announcement from the 15min chart, one could bracket this area, buy stop and sell stop in case it goes either way. Would this would with decent results? I drew 2 broken horizontal lines to mark the narrow bars before the news.

 

[Buk 10]

I don't play the NFP's at all torero....Anna-Maria and a couple of the others will occasionally take it on after the spikes have subsided......we certainly don't set orders up leading into the number....most of the wholesale suppliers simply wouldn't fill at the price, they're more concerned with protecting levels/staying out of trouble etc..........

 

I can't comment on the general retail fraternity, but I'd imagine skewed fills, gapping & freezes would eliminate most trade requests?

 

the actual print is simply way too volatile to risk our money.....that silly game is best left to those with a 'punting mentality' in my view........

 

usually 10mins or so after the spikes & hoo haa have settled down they'll be an opportunity to engage if you so wish, but to be honest we rarely partake.....

 

but sure, shorting thru 9300 on that huffing & puffing to take 9325 would have gotten you in ok........

[torero 10]

Nice. Thanks for the answer. I think the charts don't tell the whole truth. You have to be there and watch the quotes yourself. It looks so smooth but it's very tricky I believe. Time and time looking at it make it look so easy but thanks for reminding why the pros stay away!

[Buk 10]

Big Barn Door @ 325. That's a wrap till Monday then.

 

Akin to pulling hens teeth this morning, this is best left to the mop-up brigade!

 

shame about the time of day & circumstances etc......but for that, there's the lower risk ace in the pack!

 

[pipMonster 10]

Hey there Buk! Happy New Year to you.

 

Fantastic commentary as usual between you and Anna-Marie.

 

Those look like Metatrader charts you're using? Netdania has been having some trouble of late with freezes and two days of data that didn't show up at the end of the year.

 

I'm ready to get movin' and have a great trading year. This has been a profitable week for me. It's a nice way to start off the new year.

 

I'm relieved in a way that the $ has rallied somewhat giving a bit more breathing room for each way to-ing and fro-ing.

[Buk 10]

hey Jack......

 

yeah, they're MT charts.....good to see the year has kicked off on a positive footing for you!

 

we haven't really gotten going as yet on the majors....Anna's nursed positions on a couple of the crosses from the 4th quarter overlap, but we prefer to allow the $ pairings to flail around a bit into the 1st week of the new year until the volumes begin to find their levels.........

 

it's fairly light on key data next week, so I guess much of the early activity will be purely tech based......as you say, one or two each-way levels coming into focus as we kick into week 2.........

 

the weeks action has stayed quite loyal to most of our tech based zones, which is good to see.....I'm looking forward to rolling the sleeves up!!

[pipMonster 10]

A quick question on MT charts:

 

Though I like them very much, the only ones I can find are either from FXDD or Strategy Builder who both offer free demos and feeds. The problem I run into is the global time setting is GMT+2 which makes a bit of a mess out of the 240-min and above charts as the candles print very differently from GMT based candles.

 

Are your MT charts based on GMT?

 

The charts are pretty nice don't you think?

[Buk 10]

I didn't set them up Jack.....the workstations were configered when we got back to UK after the holidays.........I'll ask Jimmy when he's back next week.....

 

far as I know they're GMT....Kira's nodding her head confidently.......

 

I prefer NetDania personally, but there ya go........