Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

TroyMaster

Concept of a Beginner How to Start (pls Give Me Advice)

Recommended Posts

Hey guys I tried to figure out in the last couple of weeks how it could work for me to get into daytrading.

 

Im 24 and I do have a background as prof. Pokerplayer and studying currently Psychology in Zürich.

 

I don’t have any economical background. So basicly what Im saying why Im qualified to be a succesfull daytrader is, that I can handle losses better then other people, do have a discipline-mindset and do have the EV(expected value)-thinking-process (at least in Poker).

 

Here is what my first plan could looks like based on my research on the last couple of week.

 

Timetable

 

1. 6-12 month.

-Selfstudying about the market. Studying all kind of books about daytrading, markets, economics etc. Get a deeper insight in what is possible and what direction I want to trade

 

-Learning some systems to understand the concepts behind and upon these develop my own tradesystem.

 

-This also include a couple of seminars all around the world.

 

-Start out to daytrade on playmoney. The challenge here is, I guess, to take it seriously even thought Im not playing for real money.

 

-Start out getting the professional programs and equipment to buy and understand

 

 

2. 6 – 18 month

After half to 1 ½ years trying to find a system with works for me. Playing with so little money (e.g 10.000USD) that it’s not dangerous for my overall bankroll. The goal is to find an edge, not to make huge profit in the beginning.

 

In fact im talking about 2years (+/1 1 years) where I won’t make any huge money at all. Just to learn and understand the system and how it works.

 

I expect to lose 50.000USD in these 2 years because of expense on rent, living cost, travelling, seminars etc.

My Stop-Loss is after around these 2 years. If I can’t make any trading system to work in this time period, it’s not worth it and I failed.

It means my “education” to learn this job takes around 2 years and cost me 50.000USD.

 

Now the clue about day trading why I don’t understand you guys doing it:

 

Let’s assume I’m able to invest 100 grants. As I do understand from my research 30% revenue is a good year for a day trader. 30% from 100 grants is around 30k.

Well 30.000 USD a year is what my mum earns! She is teacher. 30k is the living expenses for me having a decent life. Because of that I cant trade for much more money and It wont be that easy for me to put more volume into trading.

 

What is wrong with this calculation? How do you guys make much more than 100 grants a year?

 

As a very good poker player you can assume to make 6digit $. At least 100k a year if you are working hard. If this calculation is right it’s not worth to even try to be day trader.

 

Motivation behind

 

- Learning and controlling my psychology. Serious this is one of my biggest motivations behind to be daytrader. To learn much more about myself by learning how to handle huge losses and wins and to survive as one of the fittest persons in the world.

 

- Competition. The imagination about being able to beat one of the hardest competition in the world with high risk, high reward and to achieve it is a high motivation

 

- Money. Obvious as the benefit to succeed in the competition.

 

- Some inner Power/strength with make me feel I can even compete on one of the highest competitions in the world. The feeling of that studying is wasting of time if it is about making money.

 

- fascination and passion about the stoxmarket

 

 

Benefits

-Freedom. With money getting the freedom to create my own world and reality.

 

-Success.

 

-Be your own boss.

 

-Life where you want

 

-Open-end income (compared to Poker) as long as you do have an edge.

 

 

 

Negative sites: as I read and do know from my Poker-background

- Boring dailyday.

 

- Nothing “usefull”. You are not creating something or helping other people or the world

 

- Starring at x screens everyday

 

- Social Isolation. You need to be able to meet people outsite your home or else you get isolated

 

- The feeling of the world is going crazy around you while you are just sitting and starring bored infront of your screens.

 

How does this sound for you? Im interested to get any advice you have. I also mentioned my motivation behind it if you feel like these are “good” motivation with can bring me to where I want to be. Do you like my motivation? And also benefits and negative sites I want to discuss with you and get some advices.

 

I’m not putting any cent into this business if Im not clear about what to expect and get. I have a huge reason why I shouldn’t do it. I have a decent life and lifestyle here in Zürich as a new student. My goal is to make at least 100.000USD a year in a medium-term amount of time (e.g in 5 years). Everything less I can work as a teacher or Pokerplayer.

 

Thanks for your advice.

 

Troy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If you have 100,000 and you are day trading then 30% is too low. If it was a billion then slippage would be an issue but with 100k it isn't.

 

Lets say you have finally figured out how to achieve an expectancy of 1.8 from a strategy that averages 60% wins. So you bet a dollar and 60% give you twice your risk; 40% lose your risk; slippage and commissions included.

 

How many trades per day? If its a fast index future 3 would seem reasonable. If its forex you might get 3 over 4 pairs. So 3 a day.

 

How much risk? 1% to 2% would be very reasonable with a 60% win rate.

 

So, 3 x a day you risk 1% of equity with an expected return of 0.8 on each trade. 250 days per year. Lets not compound as that gets nuts and I don't think most day traders aggressively compound anyway. So its 3 x 1000 x 0.8 x 250 = $600,000 pa. A little more than your mum makes.

 

That is the promise of day trading. Your challenge is to achieve it. I don't know whether I agree about the seminars or not. Screen time may only strengthen certain views - and if your views are not the "right" ones then a seminar or book might be just what was needed to move you slightly.

 

 

Just thought I'd add some comments on the issues with trading:

- you do add something useful: your buys and sells can add to the process of price/value discovery and provide needed liquidity to your markets

- it's really really important not to get your excitement from trading; sure you can get a professionals satisfaction at a job well done but don't go for excitement as it's too close to the realm of the losing gambler.

- actively seeking company elsewhere is important as is seeking outside activities that provide excitement because once you master trading and yourself it is primarily a "job" and it is solitary for most of us.

- it is also a tough job because its one where you can actively lose your money either through the will of the gods or, worse, through your own mistakes.

- so compartmentalize your professional trading activity and its job satisfaction from the other things that give you joy, company and excitement in life.

Edited by Kiwi
Some comments on the issues.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So, 3 x a day you risk 1% of equity with an expected return of 0.8 on each trade. 250 days per year. Lets not compound as that gets nuts and I don't think most day traders aggressively compound anyway. So its 3 x 1000 x 0.8 x 250 = $600,000 pa. A little more than your mum makes.

 

Do you want to mindfuck me?

Serious isnt it a totally wrong calculation?????????

An expectation of 1.8 return. A ROI of 80%????? Where are you living?

Your calculation might be right, but the terms are totally wrong.

Tell me if im wrong.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I skimmed your ‘plan’. The only suggestion I would offer is to go live out the gate and stay live your whole trading ‘career’ and never touch sim. There are sufficient mini instruments for this now and even though the costs may be higher, if you're actually tough enough it's not a factor. It will enhance your screen time training, etc. especially with some poker experience to draw on.

I know that’s not the consensus advice and this will most likely evoke some screams…but ironically the ratio of those who support it to those who advise sim sim sim is about the same as the ratio of those who thrive at trading to the losers and loosers… hm

 

All the best,

 

zdo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Troymaster - maybe a trojan horse???

"Let’s assume I’m able to invest 100 grants. As I do understand from my research 30% revenue is a good year for a day trader."

No 30% per year is a fantastic return from some of the best in the business eg; Soros, Buffett

As Kiwi mentioned they have issues such as slippage.

Day traders and Swing traders who are good can return more. I know of a few people regularly in excess of 100-200%.. There problem is scale. But as you can live off 30,000 a year you should be ok.

 

 

"As a very good poker player you can assume to make 6digit $. At least 100k a year if you are working hard. If this calculation is right it’s not worth to even try to be day trader."

 

Ask yourself.....what does a very good poker player make in comparison to a very good trader. Then ask yourself what does an average poker player make in comparison to an average trader.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Troy,

You have a good time horizon. Keep your trading simple and concentrate on learning just one setup. Ignore returns till you master.

 

Markets are there to make money. Not to pay tuition fee. Use simulator well!!!

 

Most aspiring traders are intelligent and hard working. Yet most don't make it even with incredible amount of information available on net, books and in forums like these. Why?

 

If you are committed, find a mentor who is trading for at least 15 years or so and can train you for next 3-6 months. Not a black box system or signal service or trading rooms or 2 days/2 week seminars. You cannot learn that way.

 

The above IMO will save you good amount time, frustration and money in the long run.

 

Good Luck

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The timescales look a little on the short side, but if your coming at this with a strong poker background, and an understanding of how an edge can be exploited, your already 90% of the way there. You can probably achieve something worthwhile in 2-3 years.

 

I'd stay away from the books and seminars.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Troy,

 

First of all, kudos to you for doing your due diligence and research on what you want to do before you plunge into the world of daytrading. I for one, am a person who don't really "think" before I leap and I just plunge right into whatever I want to do and am passionate about. Although, I had sacrificed ALOT over the years, I learned tremendously about myself and what I can withstand mentally and physically as a human being and a aspiring trader. Even though, I learned a lot, I don't recommend you doing things without thinking through it first and I think you're doing a great job of that.

 

I don't usually post on this forum, (just read) I felt that your thread really speaks to a lot of people on the sidelines starting out and wondering about how they can start daytrading and make it a career. I think your post was well written and I want to help you with your decision and guide your thoughts as best as possible. I think the best way to reply to your post is to tell you about my own journey through how I got started and somewhere along the way, I'll get to your question about the 30% return.

 

I started full time trading about a year and 8 months ago now. I'll be the first to admit that although, I have nothing significant in terms of $ gained to show for it yet (matter of fact, lost a lot of money, maybe more than $50K USD), my passionate for trading is stronger than ever and gets stronger every single day. The best part of it is your development to become a better person because what I've learned is to be successful in trading, you learn how to be successful in life. Trading and life mirrors each other. Having said that, I feel like right now, I'm beginning to turn the corner in profitability. I have not lost money in any single day for 3 weeks now and counting albeit small amounts but I intend to keep it that way for as long as I possibly can and will be stepping up my "bet" size as I gain my momentum to earn more money daily.

 

Actually, as I am typing now, I realize I have to go. I'll continue this reply later and I'll try to hit on most of your points in your original post because there is a lot to talk about, but let me quickly answer your question on your mind about the 30%.

 

This is assuming you trade equities (stocks). Here in the states, brokerage firms give you Leverage on your equity. If you go with a professional firm, they typically start you off with 10:1. So with 100K equity invested to open an account, you'll be receiving up to and can use $1mil to trade with. With $1m to trade, you can easily buy 1000 shares of a fast moving stock say RIMM, and if you can make $0.50 on the trade, you're up $500 minus commission and fees. Without going much into detail, I have pulled from the market intraday anywhere from about $200 - $800 in one day with $200K in buying power meaning only 20K equity invested. Let's say you desire to do this every day and trade on average of 20 days per month. You can make anywhere from $48K - $192K a year. Keep in mind, I've only put up $20K of my own money so 48K is more than double as an ROI and $192K...you do the math. This is entirely possible. I trade actively in a room where the moderator in the room consistently pulls out $1K - $5K every day with $2mil in Buying Power. I see this with my own eyes.

 

Of course, I'm also assuming you've finally hit that mark where you can trade consistently (like him) and trust me when I tell you this my friend, the road to profitability is filled with pain, sorrow, emotional distress, sacrifice and most important critical of all, the inevitability of lost $$$. Sometimes, a lot of money before you can get to that point. But, with that comes extreme pleasure, passion ignited, the ability to live in total freedom potentially without concern for finances forever. TO BE CONTINUED...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The guy you showed a lot of disrespect to ie KIWI probably knows more about trading than anyone else on here although he would never admit that.

 

I suggest you think real hard about what he wrote but maybe your not smart enough to do that but want to be spoon fed instead.

 

Best

John

 

 

Do you want to mindfuck me?

Serious isnt it a totally wrong calculation?????????

An expectation of 1.8 return. A ROI of 80%????? Where are you living?

Your calculation might be right, but the terms are totally wrong.

Tell me if im wrong.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Save your money and your ego. If your good at poker, play poker, dont ever open an account and save your self the pain (not to mention ruining your eyes at your age). Nobody ever realizes how much screen time it really takes.

Now that beig said, it is pretty cool to be a Day Trader, and most that I know do something else too. Dont put all your eggs in one basket. Good luck.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi guys,

 

thanks for all the advices I got not only from this post but also from all the other posts I put here on this forum. :)

I just realized that I opened 5 topic around the theme daytrading.

Something like

 

How much stress is daytrading?

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f30/how-much-stress-daytrading-8850.html

Hidden or special risk when starting out?

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f30/hidden-special-risk-when-starting-out-8851.html

Bad things about beeing daytrader?

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f30/bad-things-about-beeing-daytrader-8805.html

How much math is involved in daytrading?

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f30/how-much-math-involved-daytrading-8807.html

 

all theese questions where about getting an Idea how it is to be a daytrader. What is required to be successfull.

And I guess I got a pretty good picture about daytrading.

My conclusion is: I gonna give it a try. Its a realistic approach.

 

Basicly my concept is nowadays:

 

- Jan. 2011 - moving to Barbados/Carribean to play prof. Poker again.

- Beside Poker start reading theory about the market, daytrading and concepts.

- Papertrading to understand all the different graphs, function etc. I can use as a daytrader.

- After a while (I dont want to set myself a timelimit - its more about a feeling If Im ready to trade on the market) trade 4 real money.

 

I prefer to start out doing what I used to do (Poker) to

 

a. dont get stressed from the beginning If trading doesnt work out right from the beginning and Im not doing anything else. That I dont get sick of trading.

 

b. to make enough money with poker that Im totally overrolled to trade. That I have the confidence to loose money and it doesnt bother me too much.

I want to be able to trade for at least 2 years without worring about any amount of money.

 

Barbados is from the timezone pretty awesome for Poker and trading US-market too and even for EU-market not too bad. (Im still not sure what kind trades I want to make longterm)

 

I probably wont go to any seminars and probably just want to make papertrading to get used to the situation. That I do understand all the instruments I can use.

You convinced me. Thanks for that. :)

 

I already talked with 2 prof. traders. One would coach me but is kind of expensive.

Around 10k he wants for 1 years coaching until I truely succeed.

Any suggestions here? Would you recon to invest in some real and longterm coaching?

He is doing both poker and trading and have a deeper understanding about how pokerplayer think and has been trading for 6 years now.

 

Anyway if you have any further suggestions Im allways open. I would really appreciate your advice.

 

Your

Troy

 

 

P.S - witst7le I would love to here more from you. Your post sounds really interesting aswell as all of yours too guys.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Troy,

Sounds good.

 

I think having a coach will help tremendously in reducing your learning curve and gain trading mindset. On other hand, coaching will not help you if your coach methodology does not fit your nature or if you have doubts about his coaching/capabilities/method.

 

What you listed above is well thought and written. If I were starting out, I would do the steps you mentioned above for few months. This will then give an idea of what type of trading you like, which instrument and what kind of coaching you need.

 

If you already have a trading plan and method then ignore otherwise if you need, following are some good options to start - (a) Search Google for "Linda Raschke - Five Basic Trading Patterns". I think PDF and audio copy available on INO TV. (b) For a well rounded good trading plan, trade setups and how to use simulator, search on CME website for Jeff Quinto. There you will find his videos and a great trading plan. © Another good method would be search for "Ryan Watts" emini trading.

 

Note: Just pick one method that suits your nature and try to stick with it. Don't fall into trap of searching for holy grail. All exploit same concept but in different ways.

 

Side note: Trading not necessarily has to be painful unless that is what you want:-) As long as you remember trading is a journey, have patience, realize market pays you for discipline & consistency, specialize in technique & market without switching every couple of months and not compare your progress with others, you would do fine.

 

As you can see finding a method is not that difficult. The difficult part is above paragraph and that is the main reason IMO many aspiring trader remaining aspiring.

 

Wish you good luck in your trading!

Edited by atrader123

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I honestly do not think you should spend too much money on seminars and what not. It is better to spend your time and money on the market. Screen time is what you need.

 

Excellent Advice, you can read all the books in the world and go to 100 seminars, but you don't know nothing until you are actually doing it. I'm not saying don't learn, buy practice paper trading until you get good. When I say good, I mean focus on the technique, not the money. When you get the technique down the money will come.

 

-Sequan

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Troy, how'd you get good at Poker? What was the journey you had to take? Did you learn from other successful poker players? Did you constantly read about how successful poker players play? How they think and respond and do?

 

Point is: to learn how to trade is like starting with anything you endeavor to do, and that is to get an education from someone or a collective knowledge (school/education company, etc..)

 

Secondly, once you commit to the education, apply it in the markets. I am not a big believer in papertrading. One of the reasons why is if it doesn't "count" you won't put your heart and soul into it and you won't truly learn that way. My biggest lessons, Ah-Hah moments and turnarounds came from my biggest emotional pains and struggles by losing real money. Trading is all about psychology and risk management NOT setups, systems, technicals, fundamentals, etc... Those are only vehicles to your destination but not the "Skill". Kind of like driving, it doesn't matter what car you choose as there are thousands of different models to choose from but if you don't know how to drive and operate a car and not get killed by driving recklessly YOU WILL get to the destination. Focus on the "skill" (psychology) and "operations" (risk/money management) and the vehicle (technicals/system) will take care of itself.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Troymaster - maybe a trojan horse???

"Let’s assume I’m able to invest 100 grants. As I do understand from my research 30% revenue is a good year for a day trader."

No 30% per year is a fantastic return from some of the best in the business eg; Soros, Buffett

As Kiwi mentioned they have issues such as slippage.

Day traders and Swing traders who are good can return more. I know of a few people regularly in excess of 100-200%.. There problem is scale. But as you can live off 30,000 a year you should be ok.

 

 

"As a very good poker player you can assume to make 6digit $. At least 100k a year if you are working hard. If this calculation is right it’s not worth to even try to be day trader."

 

Ask yourself.....what does a very good poker player make in comparison to a very good trader. Then ask yourself what does an average poker player make in comparison to an average trader.

 

30% is fantastic. A rare bird earns in excess of 100% and it is due mainly to good fortune in his trading. One is daft if they think they can earn in excess of 30% a year with any degree of consistency in any market. They will argue that they can, but never, ever be able to demonstrate it. I'm disgusted by the information given to new guys.

 

If you doubt the difficulty or earning even a positive return, take a look at "The Race" thread and look at how the market humbles participants with grandiose plans.

 

SIUYA, I will bet you anything you like that the traders you know who regularly make 100%-200% a year will not be willing to show you a statement that verifies that.

 

I am do not mean to poo-poo trading, but if you are planning a career as an independent trader you need to have enough capital to make it. Its really like any business and most poeple fail because they do not have enough start up capital going in to survive.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • NFLX Netflix stock watch, local support and resistance areas at 838.12 and 880.5 at https://stockconsultant.com/?NFLX
    • NFLX Netflix stock watch, local support and resistance areas at 838.12 and 880.5 at https://stockconsultant.com/?NFLX
    • Hello citizens of the U.S. The hundred year trade war has leaked over into a trading war. Your equity holdings are under attack by huge sovereign funds shorting relentlessly... running basically the opposite of  PPT operations.  As an American you are blessed to be totally responsible for your own assets - the govt won’t and can’t take care of you, your lame ass whuss ‘retail’ fund managers go catatonic  and can't / won’t help you, etc etc.... If you’re going to hold your positions, it’s on you to hedge your holdings.   Don’t blame Trump, don’t blame the system, don’t even blame the ‘enemies’ - ie don’t blame period.  Just occupy the freedom and responsibility you have and act.  The only mistake ‘Trump’ made so far was not to warn you more explicitly and remind you of your options to hedge weeks ago.   FWIW when Trump got elected... I also failed to explicitly remind you... just sayin’
    • Date: 7th April 2025.   Asian Markets Plunge as US-China Trade War Escalates; Wall Street Futures Signal Further Turmoil.   Global financial markets extended last week’s massive sell-off as tensions between the US and its major trading partners deepened, rattling investors and prompting sharp declines across equities, commodities, and currencies. The fallout from President Trump’s sweeping new tariff measures continued to spread, raising fears of a full-blown trade war and economic recession.   Asian stock markets plunged on Monday, extending a global market rout fueled by rising tensions between the US and China. The latest wave of aggressive tariffs and retaliatory measures has unnerved investors worldwide, triggering sharp sell-offs across the Asia-Pacific region.   Asian equities led the global rout on Monday, with dramatic losses seen across the region. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index tumbled more than 8% shortly after the open, while the broader Topix fell over 6.5%, recovering only slightly from steeper losses. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite sank 6.7%, and the blue-chip CSI300 dropped 7.5% as markets reopened following a public holiday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index opened more than 9% lower, reflecting deep concerns about escalating trade tensions.           South Korea’s Kospi dropped 4.8%, triggering a circuit breaker designed to curb panic selling. Taiwan’s Taiex index collapsed by nearly 10%, with major tech exporters like TSMC and Foxconn hitting circuit breaker limits after each fell close to 10%. Meanwhile, Australia’s ASX 200 shed as much as 6.3%, and New Zealand’s NZX 50 lost over 3.5%.   Despite the escalation, Beijing has adopted a measured tone. Chinese officials urged investors not to panic and assured markets that the country has the tools to mitigate economic shocks. At the same time, they left the door open for renewed trade talks, though no specific timeline has been set.   US Stock Futures Plunge Ahead of Monday Open   US stock futures pointed to another brutal day on Wall Street. Futures tied to the S&P 500 dropped over 3%, Nasdaq futures sank 4%, and Dow Jones futures lost 2.5%—equivalent to nearly 1,000 points. The Nasdaq Composite officially entered a bear market on Friday, down more than 20% from its recent highs, while the S&P 500 is nearing bear territory. The Dow closed last week in correction. Oil prices followed suit, with WTI crude dropping over 4% to $59.49 per barrel—its lowest since April 2021.   Wall Street closed last week in disarray, erasing more than $5 trillion in value amid fears of an all-out trade war. The Nasdaq Composite officially entered a bear market on Friday, sinking more than 20% from its recent peak. The S&P 500 is approaching bear territory, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has slipped firmly into correction territory.   German Banks Hit Hard Amid Escalating Trade Tensions   German banking stocks were among the worst hit in Europe. Shares of Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank plunged between 9.5% and 10.3% during early Frankfurt trading, compounding Friday’s steep losses. Fears over a global trade war and looming recession are severely impacting the financial sector, particularly export-driven economies like Germany.   Eurozone Growth at Risk   Eurozone officials are bracing for economic fallout, with Greek central bank governor Yannis Stournaras warning that Trump’s tariff policy could reduce eurozone GDP by up to 1%. The EU is preparing retaliatory tariffs on $28 billion worth of American goods—ranging from steel and aluminium to consumer products like dental floss and luxury jewellery.   Starting Wednesday, the US is expected to impose 25% tariffs on key EU exports, with Brussels ready to respond with its own 20% levies on nearly all remaining American imports.   UK Faces £22 Billion Economic Blow   In the UK, fresh research from KPMG revealed that the British economy could shrink by £21.6 billion by 2027 due to US-imposed tariffs. The analysis points to a 0.8% dip in economic output over the next two years, undermining Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ growth agenda. The report also warned of additional fiscal pressure that may lead to future tax increases and public spending cuts.   Wall Street Braces for Recession   Goldman Sachs revised its US recession probability to 45% within the next year, citing tighter financial conditions and rising policy uncertainty. This marks a sharp jump from the 35% risk estimated just last month—and more than double January’s 20% projection. J.P. Morgan issued a bleaker outlook, now forecasting a 60% chance of recession both in the US and globally.   Global Leaders Respond as Trade Tensions Deepen   The dramatic market sell-off was triggered by China’s sweeping retaliation to a new round of US tariffs, which included a 34% levy on all American imports. Beijing’s state-run People’s Daily released a defiant statement, asserting that China has the tools and resilience to withstand economic pressure from Washington. ‘We’ve built up experience after years of trade conflict and are prepared with a full arsenal of countermeasures,’ it stated.   Around the world, policymakers are responding to the growing threat of a trade-led economic slowdown. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced plans to appeal directly to Washington and push for tariff relief, following the US administration’s decision to impose a blanket 24% tariff on Japanese imports. He aims to visit the US soon to present Japan’s case as a fair trade partner.   In Taiwan, President Lai Ching-te said his administration would work closely with Washington to remove trade barriers and increase purchases of American goods in an effort to reduce the bilateral trade deficit. The island's defence ministry has also submitted a new list of US military procurements to highlight its strategic partnership.   Economists and strategists are warning of deeper economic consequences. Ronald Temple, chief market strategist at Lazard, said the scale and speed of these tariffs could result in far more severe damage than previously anticipated. ‘This isn’t just a bilateral conflict anymore — more countries are likely to respond in the coming weeks,’ he noted.   Analysts at Barclays cautioned that smaller Asian economies, such as Singapore and South Korea, may face challenges in negotiating with Washington and are already adjusting their economic growth forecasts downward in response to the unfolding trade crisis.           Oil Prices Sink on Demand Concerns   Crude oil continued its sharp slide on Monday, driven by recession fears and weakened global demand. Brent fell 3.9% to $63.04 a barrel, while WTI plunged over 4% to $59.49—both benchmarks marking weekly losses exceeding 10%. Analysts say inflationary pressures and slowing economic activity may drag demand down, even though energy imports were excluded from the latest round of tariffs.   Vandana Hari of Vanda Insights noted, ‘The market is struggling to find a bottom. Until there’s a clear signal from Trump that calms recession fears, crude prices will remain under pressure.’   OPEC+ Adds Further Pressure with Output Hike   Bearish sentiment intensified after OPEC+ announced it would boost production by 411,000 barrels per day in May, far surpassing the expected 135,000 bpd. The alliance called on overproducing nations to submit compensation plans by April 15. Analysts fear this surprise move could undo years of supply discipline and weigh further on already fragile oil markets.   Global political risks also flared over the weekend. Iran rejected US proposals for direct nuclear negotiations and warned of potential military action. Meanwhile, Russia claimed fresh territorial gains in Ukraine’s Sumy region and ramped up attacks on surrounding areas—further darkening the outlook for markets.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Andria Pichidi HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • AMZN Amazon stock watch, good buying (+313%) toi hold onto the 173.32 support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?AMZN
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.