Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

MadMarketScientist

I'm An Idiot

Recommended Posts

Yes, it's confession time.

 

I normally pride myself on being a pretty good trader. I don't make many errors, and have learned to stick to my trade plan - thick or thin. And it has rewarded me nicely.

 

Today I really swung - and missed. Idiotic.

 

For some reason I had it in my skull that the FOMC meeting announcement was yesterday. Why? I actually have a good reason why my brain farted that thought out -- trust me in there is a reason.

 

However, how dumb for me to be cavalier and not check the economic calendar:

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/calendar/

 

Duh. Right there in just a few seconds I would have corrected my idiocy. But, no, instead I ended up trading THROUGH the announcement. Something I would never in my right mind do.

 

Well, was trading Crude Oil and going about my business having a pretty good day so I was pressing my luck anyway trading in the afternoon (I thought I said I follow my trade plan :) and I was long and then the announcement hit and it dropped like a rock through my stop. Which happened to be a reversal I set up -- which happened to have slippage of epic proportions.

 

By the time I realized what happened I was down significantly - as in wiping out a weeks worth of profits. Thousands gone bye bye in seconds.

 

Then, my idiocy continued. I was mad. So I figured I'm going to be a bigger idiot and start trading it actively while the market was still freaking out because maybe I'd get lucky and catch a big runner. Let's see, within another 90 seconds I was down about two weeks worth of profits.

 

So by the time the dust settled I was down big on the day. Probably my single worst one day loss certainly since I became an experienced trader.

 

Do I know I'll comeback? Yes. My earnings are somewhat reliable but I know it will take me 2 weeks without forcing things with bigger position size. And, hopefully I'm over my idiot disease and won't do that.

 

Lesson? Check the damn news - you've heard it a million times I know. But, check the damn news.

 

MMS

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Yes, it's confession time.

 

...

 

For some reason I had it in my skull that the FOMC meeting announcement was yesterday. ...

...

MMS

 

sorry dude, I usually post a reminder in the morning... but didn't bother today.

 

next time....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good Post MMS.

 

Two bits of idiocy there and for new traders the second bit is more important that the first because so many do it. The revenge trade.

 

When we experience emotional pain; out of the market depression; disgust at our error generated loss; we desperately want to get in and get it back.

 

Even when we don't feel the emotions imprinting from earlier trades will cause it to happen. This is my greatest error ... turning a small loss into one two or three times bigger. It's so big for me that I have written software to take me off line after a losing trade. I have the discipline then to stay off line for a cool down period but if I keep watching the market I have an uncanny ability to clearly see the next obvious trade ... only to find a loser three times out of four.

 

In the old days, before I constructed my emotion detecting and despising headmistress, I used to get some spectacular recovery winners. But they are the worst because they reinforce a bad habit. And, warmed by those recoveries I would do it a few more times over the next days until I had lost far more in reentries than I had won. If you have this conditioned response then you must stop it! :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

MMS

 

Please consider to have a scrolling calendar for the current day on the front page of thy website. Further you can consider to expand or pop it if you hold your cursor over it for couple of seconds.

 

Ta Minoo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good suggestion on the top news being on the frontpage. I'll look into it -- and then I'll actually need to look at it :crap:

 

Kiwi, you nailed it on the revenge trade. It is a battle -- it has taken me years to not do that 'most' of the time -- let's say 95%+. However sometimes all the training and discipline in the world gets thrown out the window. And, I can't tell you how many times that approach fails. But human nature reaches for and holds onto the few times it works. If it never worked it would be easy - the pain would always be there. Unfortunately it works on occasion. Like going to Vegas and winning a bunch on one sitdown at the tables -- and suddenly you think you can earn a living because you're such a card shark. Holy crap moment comes thereafter.

 

Tomorrow starts day 1 of the recovery. Just gotta check the news AND avoid temptation to "expedite" my recovery.

 

MMS

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just a suggestion: Since I am on PST time, and unfortunately most news releases around 5 am PST, I found it very helpful to print out economic calendar, where I highlight news times and which reminds me when next day's news are at the close of my work day.

 

tradethenews is my fav..kept me out of trouble quite few times due to instant, not delayed news release.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

MMS,

Sorry to hear. It pains more especially when loss is due to something in retrospect could have been avoided.One thing that helps me as quick aid psychologically is to think/write what would I say to a good friend of mine who is currently in my situation.

 

I try to side step news issue a bit differently. May be dumb rule but simple and so far worked for me - Daily I take a 5 minute break from 6.59 AM PST - 7.04 AM PST . (Note: My trading hours are 5.35AM PST - 8.00 AM PST).

 

Who knows it might happen you recuperate the loss faster than you thought with an added benefit of more stronger resolve.

 

Good Luck.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wow I hear ya MMS, I too had a pretty horrible day. My biggest losers, have both been fomc days. Every month, I tell myself not to trade them, but still do. Even if I make a little, easily lose 10 times that on the bad trade. Anyway, I guess I'm getting to the point that, lessons, are often very expensive (financially, mentally, emotionally, and even physically), but they need to be learned. I jus wish I could learn them a bit faster, and not be a donkey. Like you, I'll make back my losses, and then some. I'm in this for the long haul.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My rule on FOMC days is I like the movement but it's not tradeable right at announcement time - and it's usually downright awful the hours leading up to it. So, I wait a minimum of 10 minutes after that announcement, sometimes up to 15 minutes and then I start to trade -- it usually moves great on multiple markets after that time and you actually can get standard fills.

 

My rule on other important reports tends to be 5 minutes - that's usually more than enough time for things to settle down -- and I have a rule to NEVER trade right at the announcement or just before since you're no better than flipping a coin then.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The good news from this story is since the debacle yes, I have paid attention to the news -- let's say with a renewed motivation!

 

Last few days much better for trading as a result of not breaking the plan. Can't say Friday trade in CL was the greatest -- after the first 90 minutes of spiraling nowhere, it finally did let loose a little and recovered to positive for the day. Today has been fine, also trading some natural gas which just has moved better last few days than Crude. They tend to go in and out of favor so I keep an eye on both if I'm trading energies.

 

Which of course means other reports/news I need to be aware of!

 

MMS

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Thx for reminding us... I don't bang that drum often enough anymore Another part for consideration is who that money initially went to...
    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • How long does it take to receive HFM's withdrawal via Skrill? less than 24H?
    • My wife Robin just wanted some groceries.   Simple enough.   She parked the car for fifteen minutes, and returned to find a huge scratch on the side.   Someone keyed her car.   To be clear, this isn’t just any car.   It’s a Cybertruck—Elon Musk's stainless-steel spaceship on wheels. She bought it back in 2021, before Musk became everyone's favorite villain or savior.   Someone saw it parked in a grocery lot and felt compelled to carve their hatred directly into the metal.   That's what happens when you stand out.   Nobody keys a beige minivan.   When you're polarizing, you're impossible to ignore. But the irony is: the more attention something has, the harder it is to find the truth about it.   What’s Elon Musk really thinking? What are his plans? What will happen with DOGE? Is he deserving of all of this adoration and hate? Hard to say.   Ideas work the same way.   Take tariffs, for example.   Tariffs have become the Cybertrucks of economic policy. People either love them or hate them. Even if they don’t understand what they are and how they work. (Most don’t.)   That’s why, in my latest podcast (link below), I wanted to explore the “in-between” truth about tariffs.   And like Cybertrucks, I guess my thoughts on tariffs are polarizing.   Greg Gutfield mentioned me on Fox News. Harvard professors hate me now. (I wonder if they also key Cybertrucks?)   But before I show you what I think about tariffs… I have to mention something.   We’re Headed to Austin, Texas This weekend, my team and I are headed to Austin. By now, you should probably know why.   Yes, SXSW is happening. But my team and I are doing something I think is even better.   We’re putting on a FREE event on “Tech’s Turning Point.”   AI, quantum, biotech, crypto, and more—it’s all on the table.   Just now, we posted a special webpage with the agenda.   Click here to check it out and add it to your calendar.   The Truth About Tariffs People love to panic about tariffs causing inflation.   They wave around the ghost of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff from the Great Depression like it’s Exhibit A proving tariffs equal economic collapse.   But let me pop this myth:   Tariffs don’t cause inflation. And no, I'm not crazy (despite what angry professors from Harvard or Stanford might tweet at me).   Here's the deal.   Inflation isn’t when just a couple of things become pricier. It’s when your entire shopping basket—eggs, shirts, Netflix subscriptions, bananas, everything—starts costing more because your money’s worth less.   Inflation means your dollars aren’t stretching as far as they used to.   Take the 1800s.   For nearly a century, 97% of America’s revenue came from tariffs. Income tax? Didn’t exist. And guess what inflation was? Basically zero. Maybe 1% a year.   The economy was booming, and tariffs funded nearly everything. So, why do people suddenly think tariffs cause inflation today?   Tariffs are taxes on imports, yes, but prices are set by supply and demand—not tariffs.   Let me give you a simple example.   Imagine fancy potato chips from Canada cost $10, and a 20% tariff pushes that to $12. Everyone panics—prices rose! Inflation!   Nope.   If I only have $100 to spend and the price of my favorite chips goes up, I either stop buying chips or I buy, say, fewer newspapers.   If everyone stops buying newspapers because they’re overspending on chips, newspapers lower their prices or go out of business.   Overall spending stays the same, and inflation doesn’t budge.   Three quick scenarios:   We buy pricier chips, but fewer other things: Inflation unchanged. Manufacturers shift to the U.S. to avoid tariffs: Inflation unchanged (and more jobs here). We stop buying fancy chips: Prices drop again. Inflation? Still unchanged. The only thing that actually causes inflation is printing money.   Between 2020 and 2022 alone, 40% of all money ever created in history appeared overnight.   That’s why inflation shot up afterward—not because of tariffs.   Back to tariffs today.   Still No Inflation Unlike the infamous Smoot-Hawley blanket tariff (imagine Oprah handing out tariffs: "You get a tariff, and you get a tariff!"), today's tariffs are strategic.   Trump slapped tariffs on chips from Taiwan because we shouldn’t rely on a single foreign supplier for vital tech components—especially if that supplier might get invaded.   Now Taiwan Semiconductor is investing $100 billion in American manufacturing.   Strategic win, no inflation.   Then there’s Canada and Mexico—our friendly neighbors with weirdly huge tariffs on things like milk and butter (299% tariff on butter—really, Canada?).   Trump’s not blanketing everything with tariffs; he’s pressuring trade partners to lower theirs.   If they do, everybody wins. If they don’t, well, then we have a strategic trade chess game—but still no inflation.   In short, tariffs are about strategy, security, and fairness—not inflation.   Yes, blanket tariffs from the Great Depression era were dumb. Obviously. Today's targeted tariffs? Smart.   Listen to the whole podcast to hear why I think this.   And by the way, if you see a Cybertruck, don’t key it. Robin doesn’t care about your politics; she just likes her weird truck.   Maybe read a good book, relax, and leave cars alone.   (And yes, nobody keys Volkswagens, even though they were basically created by Hitler. Strange world we live in.) Source: https://altucherconfidential.com/posts/the-truth-about-tariffs-busting-the-inflation-myth    Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/       
    • No, not if you are comparing apples to apples. What we call “poor” is obviously a pretty high bar but if you’re talking about like a total homeless shambling skexie in like San Fran then, no. The U.S.A. in not particularly kind to you. It is not an abuse so much as it is a sad relatively minor consequence of our optimism and industriousness.   What you consider rich changes with circumstances obviously. If you are genuinely poor in the U.S.A., you experience a quirky hodgepodge of unhelpful and/or abstract extreme lavishnesses while also being alienated from your social support network. It’s about the same as being a refugee. For a fraction of the ‘kindness’ available to you in non bio-available form, you could have simply stayed closer to your people and been MUCH better off.   It’s just a quirk of how we run the place and our values; we are more worried about interfering with people’s liberty and natural inclination to do for themselves than we are about no bums left behind. It is a slightly hurtful position and we know it; we are just scared to death of socialism cancer and we’re willing to put our money where our mouth is.   So, if you’re a bum; you got 5G, the ER will spend like $1,000,000 on you over a hangnail but then kick you out as soon as you’re “stabilized”, the logistics are surpremely efficient, you have total unchecked freedom of speech, real-estate, motels, and jobs are all natural healthy markets in perfect competition, you got compulsory three ‘R’’s, your military owns the sky, sea, space, night, information-space, and has the best hairdos, you can fill out paper and get all the stuff up to and including a Ph.D. Pretty much everything a very generous, eager, flawless go-getter with five minutes to spare would think you might need.   It’s worse. Our whole society is competitive and we do NOT value or make any kumbaya exception. The last kumbaya types we had werr the Shakers and they literally went extinct. Pueblo peoples are still around but they kind of don’t count since they were here before us. So basically, if you’re poor in the U.S.A., you are automatically a loser and a deadbeat too. You will be treated as such by anybody not specifically either paid to deal with you or shysters selling bejesus, Amway, and drugs. Plus, it ain’t safe out there. Not everybody uses muhfreedoms to lift their truck, people be thugging and bums are very vulnerable here. The history of a large mobile workforce means nobody has a village to go home to. Source: https://askdaddy.quora.com/Are-the-poor-people-in-the-United-States-the-richest-poor-people-in-the-world-6   Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/ 
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.