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By AdrianaLowe
The theme over this last trading week has been one of remarkable resilience. After breaking down from key resistance levels, it seemed that a period of consolidation would follow. But, globally, markets instead rallied with conviction to retest their highs.
I have been sceptical about the sustainability of the rally this year. But one of the most fundamental axioms of surviving the markets is to trade what you see, not what you believe. And what I am seeing is markets that seem to want to push higher across the board, with individual stocks holding up well even when faced with bearish news.
S&P 500
(credit: chart from Sigma by Hydra X)
The S&P closed the week strongly at 2,822.48, up 0.5% on high volume, and on the back of its biggest weekly gain since November 2018. US markets seem insistent on forging a path higher despite the overhang of earnings, macro economy news, North Korea, and ongoing China trade talks. I still wait for price to break and close clear of the congestion zone around 2,800 before entering longs, but this looks increasingly like a environment where the only rational positions to take are either to be flat or long.
MICROSOFT
(credit: chart from Sigma by Hydra X)
Gains this week were led by tech, with the sector surging 4.9%, and also becoming the best performing sector of 2019. I find MSFT interesting, having completed a bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern, rallying in a tight rising channel, and strongly testing resistance (and also its all-time highs) on high volume. But a spinning top candlestick in the midst of overhead resistance, and a bearish stochastic crossover which in overbought territory could translate into a pullback, which could provide interesting entries for longs.
TESLA
(credit: chart from Sigma by Hydra X)
A good litmus test for market sentiment is how stocks behave on news. Tesla has held on to $275 support despite its Model Y unveiling event underwhelming analysts; BAML, CFRA Research and Canaccord Genuity all issued cautionary notes. If it gets there, $260 looks to be strong support for a countertrend rally.
BOEING
(credit: chart from Sigma by Hydra X)
Boeing continued to suffer the aftermath of the latest tragedy, ultimately having to suspend its entire fleet of 737 MAX planes when the FAA finally followed the lead of global aviation authorities in grounding the plane. Deliveries of the 737 MAX have also been paused. The beleaguered company faces an indeterminate outcome from investigations, bills from airlines affected by the grounding of the plane, as well as potential suits from the families of victims. On Thursday, the US Air Force joined the party. It launched a blistering attack on Boeing, saying that the company has a ‘severe situation’ after flawed inspections of their KC-46 air refuelling tanker aircraft, and questioning the company’s ‘culture of discipline for safety’. [https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/14/politics/air-force-boeing-refueling-plane/index.html] Despite all this, the stock has proven remarkably well supported at $370, repeatedly rallying from those levels on high volume.
FACEBOOK
(credit: chart from Sigma by Hydra X)
No company has had a worse week than FB, even within the context of its bad year. The week started with a proposal by Senator Elizabeth Warren to break up FB, was followed by a network outage affecting its Facebook, WhatsApp and Instagram services, and then announcements of a widening federal criminal probe into its data sharing practices. Two key executives, Chris Cox and Chris Daniels also announced their departures from the company. A nadir was reached when its Facebook application was used to livestream the hate-driven massacre of 49 people in New Zealand.
Technically, the stock has broken below the bottom of its ascending channel, and key overhead resistance in the $170-173 region looks daunting. There is also a huge gap from Feb 2019 waiting to be closed.
Yet in spite of the weak technical picture and the deluge of negative news, FB closed just 2.13% down for the week, and ended the trading session on Friday well above the lows of the day, forming a bullish hammer. While I have been waiting for a clear break in one direction or the other for a while, as rising channel met overhead resistance, I choose to stay as interested spectators for now.
EUR/USD
(credit: chart from Sigma by Hydra X)
Finally, last week I noted the technical breakdown of key support levels in the EURUSD, in conjunction with fundamentally bearish news in the form of Draghi’s dovish speech. However, I was keen to stay on the sidelines, given past experience of how crowded trades tend to turn out. EURUSD didn’t disappoint, as it promptly rose in a stop-hunting rally, which would have trapped any short entries in a very uncomfortable position.
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By Stocks4life · Posted
KDLY Kindly MD stock watch, pullback to 1.7 support area with high trade quality at https://stockconsultant.com/?KDLY -
By Stocks4life · Posted
PLTR Palantir Technologies stock, watch for a local breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?PLTR -
By HFblogNews · Posted
Date: 6th March 2025. The Euro is on The Rise But Is the Currency Overbought? The Euro rose more than 4% over four days making it the currency’s best performance since COVID lockdowns. The upward price movement is primarily driven by the European bond market which saw its worst day since the 1990s. However, investors are now evaluating whether the Euro is overbought. Why Is the Euro Increasing in Value? The Euro's rise is driven by the EU's new ‘re-arm’ plans, announced by the European Commission President. This is in response to the US suspending military aid to Ukraine. Analysts believe increased military spending will strengthen the Euro in the short term, but its impact may fade, especially if the Ukraine-Russia conflict ends. The US is looking to achieve this by halting aid and no longer sharing military intelligence. In addition, the German Bond fell and witnessed their worst day in almost 30 years. As a result the higher bond yields also continue to support the Euro. Currently, the Euro Index is trading 0.09% higher and is only witnessing a decline against the Japanese Yen. However, the price movement of the Euro will also depend on the European Central Bank and potential Trump Tariffs. Economists remain convinced that Trump's tariff threats are serious and will be imposed on the EU. Just last week, he announced that Washington will impose 25% tariffs on Europe-made ‘cars and all other things’. On April 2nd, Washington plans to introduce another round of ‘reciprocal’ tariffs, adding to those already in effect. Germany remains particularly vulnerable, as a large portion of its industry relies on exports to the US. This can potentially have a negative effect on the Euro and the European stock market. Is the European Central Bank a Risk for the Euro? The European Central Bank is due to announce its rate decision this afternoon and conduct a press conference thereafter. The ECB may potentially aim to calm the market after German Bonds took a hit. If the ECB remains dovish and also reassures the market of the Eurozone’s fiscal and monetary policy, the Euro can retrace in the short term. Analysts currently advise today’s ECB meeting will most likely be the most interesting in years and the most unpredictable. Markets are expecting a rate of 2.65% from the ECB. Analysts at Morgan Stanley believe the ECB will maintain its "dovish" stance in March and April to support the economy, especially as inflation slowed to 2.4% in February from 2.5% the previous month, nearing the 2.0% target. If the ECB advice rates are likely to continue falling in 2025, the Euro will struggle to maintain bullish momentum. EURUSD - Technical Analysis and Indicators The EURUSD is still witnessing indications of bullish price movement on the 2-hour chart and fundamentals also support the upward price movement. However, simultaneously, the price is obtaining indications the currency is overbought in the short to medium term. The EURUSD is trading above the overbought level on the RSI and is obtaining a divergence signal on most timeframes. Therefore, the possibility of the price being overbought and retracing remains, but the price action will depend on the ECB. Until the ECB’s rate decision and press conference, the average price at 1.08000 will be key as it has been so far today. Key Takeaway Points: The Euro surged over 4% in four days, its best performance since COVID lockdowns, driven by European bond market turmoil. The EU’s ‘re-arm’ plans and rising German bond yields boost the Euro, but US tariffs and ECB decisions may impact its trend. The ECB’s upcoming rate decision and monetary policy stance could shape short-term price movements, with a dovish approach expected. Despite strong fundamentals, RSI overbought levels and divergence signals suggest a possible retracement, depending on the ECB. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. -
By Stocks4life · Posted
PDYN Palladyne AI stock, great day off the gap support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?PDYN -
By Stocks4life · Posted
MRNA Moderna stock, nice day with a rally off the lower 30.6 double support area, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?MRNA
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