ES End of Day Analysis/Commentary

[Tradewinds 12]

10-19-10 The ES dropped hard right after it returned back to the days opening price at 13:46. Accumulated Volume was down all day. UVol - DVol was down all day. There was a steady march down in Down Volume all day. Even though there was much more down volume than up volume, the price of the ES was actually above the open until early afternoon. So I consider that a divergence. Price was up, but there was more down volume. Something had to "give" sooner or later. And the breakdown resulted in a sudden 10 point drop over about 13 minutes.

[cuttshot 11]

Tradewinds,

 

Should be interesting the next few days with earnings continuing, beige book tomorrow, and unemployment claims on Thursday. I personally think we have some room to the downside here but we'll have to wait and see how things play out. Just have to keep an eye on the internals to guage the strength of any of the moves. Thanks for the post.

[Tradewinds 12]

I'm very interested in strategising using news, internals and gaps. I'd like to discipline myself to forecast what the ES might do the next day, then keep a log of how successful my predictions were. I wish this site had the ability to create a database table.

[Tradewinds 12]

ES End of Day Commentary 10-20-10 - Traders Laboratory - Professional Traders Community

[cuttshot 11]

What other internals are you following? I like watching the advance/decline line on both the NYSE and and NASDAQ as well as the uvol/dvol on both as well. I also look at the trin on both of these. Finally, I like to look at the 5 and 15 min charts on the SPY and at times the SPX. On these charts I look at the 20, 50, and 200 moving averages. Using all this does help give me a feel for current market conditions. How does this compare to what you are doing?

[Tradewinds 12]

What other internals are you following?

I also watch accumulated volume. Sometimes the /ES turns when the accumulated volume starts to turn or has a bump in it. It happens regularly enough, so that it's worth looking at. The uvol/dvol is of less use, but I still watch it. uvol/dvol often is out of sync with the the advance/decline line, and the price of the ES follows the the advance/decline line. The TICK often leads price by quite a lot. Because the TICK is very choppy and just looks like a jumbled mess on a chart, it is difficult to figure out the patterns. But the TICK does have patterns, it does trend, and it is the best leading indicator that I know of.

[bigsnack 10]

I also watch accumulated volume. Sometimes the /ES turns when the accumulated volume starts to turn or has a bump in it. It happens regularly enough, so that it's worth looking at. The uvol/dvol is of less use, but I still watch it. uvol/dvol often is out of sync with the the advance/decline line, and the price of the ES follows the the advance/decline line. The TICK often leads price by quite a lot. Because the TICK is very choppy and just looks like a jumbled mess on a chart, it is difficult to figure out the patterns. But the TICK does have patterns, it does trend, and it is the best leading indicator that I know of.

 

Agreed! It's like any indicator, you just have to spend enough time with it to know what it's telling you. The TICK is my one indicator crutch.

[Tradewinds 12]

ES Morning analysis Nov. 1, 2010

 

Es 11-1-10 - Traders Laboratory - Professional Traders Community

[bigsnack 10]

Tradewinds,

 

Since you are a big fan of the TICK, I can share my experience with it. I found that I had a really hard time fading big extremes with it, as often I would sell a high tick and then of course there would be another high tick and I would get shaken out. The TICK became very useful when I began using it the opposite way, as a newfound strength or weakness indicator (instead of an overbought / oversold indicator). Key levels for me are +500 and -500 on the TICK. I will often fade a high tick only if we have had a recent close on the TICK below -500, and vice versa. Check it out and see if it helps at all

[Tradewinds 12]

Thank you for sharing your experiences. I'm using the TICK together with price trend, and the ADVN-DECN trend. Plus I'm keeping track of higher highs and lower lows on the TICK. I don't really pay that much attention to the level of the TICK readings. I think that it's all relative. I think of the TICK as being a mini trend within a larger trend. That "mini-trend" doesn't tell you what the major price extremes are. Signals for the major price extremes come from the ADVN-DECN. It's the same thing as using an anchor chart with a long Moving Average, and then a chart with a faster MA, and waiting for both the short and fast to confirm a top or bottom.

[Tradewinds 12]

I also watch accumulated volume.

I don't watch Accumulated Volume anymore. Basically I'm trading off price levels, the TICK, UVOL/DVOL and ADVN/DECN. Those tell the main story. Anything other than those inputs is unneeded information that just clutters up the mind.