Limited Time, Simple System

[renner1984 10]

I am seeking thoughts and ideas for a system that is simple, can withstand the changing market conditions (including summer conditions), and one which can gain consistently. I ask not only for myself but for many who are in a similar position in these forums.

 

I'm looking for something in which I can set pending orders, or place orders at a given time (due to working a full-time job). A breakout system comes to mind, but am interested in finding something during ranging markets as well. I would risk $1/pip per $1,000 (adjusting the lot size accordingly). Ideas for money management would be a big help too; I don't like anything less than 1:1 risk/reward.

 

I've been studying what's out there the past year; I'm very familiar with the basics and beyond. Yet, I cannot settle on any system I'm comfortable with. I am also a MQL4 programmer and can program a system if it works and someone here is willing to share it (for anyone interested).

 

Anyone have any idea for something that might be what I'm looking for? Please do not send affiliate links; I am looking for a system I can manually trade or one in which I can program on my own.

 

Thank you to anyone who responds!

[MadMarketScientist 11]

That's a broad based question, one that probably tens of thousands of traders seek the answer to which means there is no easy answer.

 

A few observation and input.

 

One you are clearly looking for a swing trading forex strategy and not day trading given your time. Two, it would make some sense that you can at least "check" on your position more than once every 24 hours. Perhaps you take or set-up trades once per 24 hours, but more than likely you'll need to find at least 2 other times you can at least check on the trades to see if there is any need to update stops, etc.... I think you can avoid having to place trades in those 2 other times and reserve that for your 1x every 24 hours. In fact it's probably smarter to do that and avoids overtrading.

 

I would suggest you pick a time to place trades per whatever set-up strategy used that is right before or at the time the Asian session gets going. If you can trade sometime between 6pm - 9pm EST (New York) I think that's idea because taking swing trades during Asian, European and/or active US market hours is usually not a good idea since you end up getting false signals due to all the news reports.

 

Not to say you won't get whipsawed front-running this news but you'll get less false set-ups at the very least which will help.

 

Keep in mind when swing trading you can definitely beat the 1:1 reward/risk but you're likely looking at risks of 50 - 100 pips in most markets to effectively swing trade -- as long as you watch your leverage that's fine since you'll likely on those same trades be targeting at a minimum 75 - 150 pips, etc..

 

Anyway, that's just some top level feedback -- it doesn't give you the "system" but at least some parameters to start looking into.

 

MMS

[renner1984 10]

  MadMarketScientist said:

That's a broad based question, one that probably tens of thousands of traders seek the answer to which means there is no easy answer.

 

A few observation and input.

 

One you are clearly looking for a swing trading forex strategy and not day trading given your time. Two, it would make some sense that you can at least "check" on your position more than once every 24 hours. Perhaps you take or set-up trades once per 24 hours, but more than likely you'll need to find at least 2 other times you can at least check on the trades to see if there is any need to update stops, etc.... I think you can avoid having to place trades in those 2 other times and reserve that for your 1x every 24 hours. In fact it's probably smarter to do that and avoids overtrading.

 

I would suggest you pick a time to place trades per whatever set-up strategy used that is right before or at the time the Asian session gets going. If you can trade sometime between 6pm - 9pm EST (New York) I think that's idea because taking swing trades during Asian, European and/or active US market hours is usually not a good idea since you end up getting false signals due to all the news reports.

 

Not to say you won't get whipsawed front-running this news but you'll get less false set-ups at the very least which will help.

 

Keep in mind when swing trading you can definitely beat the 1:1 reward/risk but you're likely looking at risks of 50 - 100 pips in most markets to effectively swing trade -- as long as you watch your leverage that's fine since you'll likely on those same trades be targeting at a minimum 75 - 150 pips, etc..

 

Anyway, that's just some top level feedback -- it doesn't give you the "system" but at least some parameters to start looking into.

 

MMS

 

Thanks for the feedback and wasn't really expecting a system (one with no strings attached anyway). Such suggestion above might suit me well since I'm going for 100 pips a week anyway. For me, I want something that can give consistent wins, as much as that's possible in this wild market. Consistency in pips is important because I have goals to compound my gains in a systematic manner. Any ideas how to devise a system, such as finding optimal ratios and times? Analysis-paralysis is my position right now. Thanks.

[MadMarketScientist 11]

A few additional suggestions....

 

One, I find it hard to trade for "consistent" profits - what I mean by that is I expect my equity curves to go steady up, but they don't go straight up. I have some months where I make 5 times as much as the prior month. Which means either the current month is great, or maybe it means the prior one was a struggle. It's hard to trade for consistent and regular profits like a paycheck might provide. Just be prepared for a lot of variance week to week and even month to month. It's the averages over time that matter.

 

Next, I'd recommend you trade on a breakout basis with trend primarily. Might seem basic but when you are looking to try and put odds in your favor, getting a set-up then requiring that market to go "x" further, however small in that direction before jumping in will increase your trading odds and win percentage. Then, make sure it's the direction of the general trend at the time - doesn't mean it has to be in the direction of some long term trend - just when swing trading of the last week or so would be a good idea.

 

I don't want to get involved in the site politics of making very specific system or vendor recommendations but while there is plenty of garbage out there, there are actually very good vendors with reasonable and realistic courses.

 

Just avoid anything that promises too much.

[BradanBrock 10]

hi your information very nice ............................

[BrianE 10]

Using established support and resistance locations will give a good starting point for a simple system.

 

Getting a consistent cash flow from a trading system will definitely involve managing yur trades properly. Don't 'bet' too much of your account (2% is a good number that I have heard from a lot of traders). Cut your losers short, fast. Let your winner run long.

[MadMarketScientist 11]

All good advice - in particular the 2% risk - or less rule. Always seems basic to people and I think traders who are learning get sick of hearing it - mostly since they never abide by it - since 2% or less risk per trade is no path to get rich quick. Which is exactly the point.

 

MMS

[BlowFish 10]

Risk of ruin (RoR) is the key metric. Im not sure 2% is even OK as a rule of thumb. It's one of those accepted pearls of 'wisdom' that for some reason has gained traction. There really is not one size fits all. TradersCALM - Calculating risk of ruin is a great little site that tells you how to calculate it and why you should.

[MadMarketScientist 11]

Blowfish

 

I can't really argue with you on your point. You're right. However, I think 99% of the people who trade have a heck of a time with any tracking, stats, discipline, plan, etc... that sometimes an over-simplified rule like the 2% at least gets them started and thinking down the right path. For that it's valuable. Though you're right on.

 

MMS

[andrusdavis 10]

  renner1984 said:

I am seeking thoughts and ideas for a system that is simple, can withstand the changing market conditions (including summer conditions), and one which can gain consistently. I ask not only for myself but for many who are in a similar position in these forums.

 

You might look at FOREX Markets Reversal Levels thread at FF.

 

Their first post includes a simple systems that might fit the bill.

[Tams 20]

  renner1984 said:

I am seeking thoughts and ideas for a system that is simple, can withstand the changing market conditions (including summer conditions), and one which can gain consistently. I ask not only for myself but for many who are in a similar position in these forums.

 

I'm looking for something in which I can set pending orders, or place orders at a given time (due to working a full-time job). A breakout system comes to mind, but am interested in finding something during ranging markets as well. I would risk $1/pip per $1,000 (adjusting the lot size accordingly). Ideas for money management would be a big help too; I don't like anything less than 1:1 risk/reward.

 

I've been studying what's out there the past year; I'm very familiar with the basics and beyond. Yet, I cannot settle on any system I'm comfortable with. I am also a MQL4 programmer and can program a system if it works and someone here is willing to share it (for anyone interested).

 

Anyone have any idea for something that might be what I'm looking for? Please do not send affiliate links; I am looking for a system I can manually trade or one in which I can program on my own.

 

Thank you to anyone who responds!

 

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[Snow Dog 10]

You did say you wanted simple, perhaps this fits that bill.

 

Put an 8 lwma (on close) onto a 4hr chart. Look for crosses (closed candles) that have some form of definite pa suggesting a turn eg double tops/bottoms, higher lows/lower highs.

 

That easy, sure, take those charts for a whirl and see what happens.

[Snow Dog 10]

You decide if you can build a system around this. All reversals through 8 lwma that have multiple candle tops/bottoms and/or higher lows/lower highs.

[Snow Dog 10]

Each chart has the same thing, cross of 8 lwma, several candles suggesting stall + turn through multiple tops/bottoms, higher lows/lower highs.

[Snow Dog 10]

Each chart has the same thing, cross of 8 lwma, several candles suggesting stall + turn through multiple tops/bottoms, higher lows/lower highs.

 

Cherry picking or solid lower highs or extended periods where several candles suggest move stalled for turn.

[MadMarketScientist 11]

Tams and his famous sarcasm again!

 

MMS

[Tams 20]

  MadMarketScientist said:

Tams and his famous sarcasm again!

 

MMS

 

not sarcasm,

 

but really want you to think about the parallels.

[SIUYA 11]

  Tams said:

not sarcasm,

 

but really want you to think about the parallels.

 

exactly - often people ask for the ideal thing in one area and if you reverse the tables to a separate idea they would scoff at what you ask.

This can be applied to many other aspects of life involving things such as discrimination, bias, politics and religion. Try it sometime - take an article about race, sex, feminism etc; swap all the words from male to female, black to white - whatever....then read it.....often what you found agreeing with one minute can be offensive the next.

Thanks for the belly laugh Tams.

 

What this guy needs is a funds manager, and surprise surprise even good fund managers some times get it wrong - Paulson and sino forest comes to mind as a current example.

[Tradewinds 12]

  renner1984 said:

I am also a MQL4 programmer and can program a system

 

I'm not familiar with MQL4, but if you have programing skills, you can look for what seems to be things that affect the market price, write a program, and then determine if there really is a correlation or not.

 

Many people don't have any programing skills, so the only way they have of verifying whether their strategy works or not is by actual trading, or just viewing charts. I've studied charts for years, and 99.9999% of the time when I think I see a correlation between an indicator and price, it turns out to be nothing more but a "flip of the coin", no real correlation at all.

 

So what I'm saying is, it's a long, long process of finding out what really affects price. I know nothing about forex, so I can't help you on that.

 

Here is an interesting webpage:

 

Principles of market movements @ Forex Factory

 

It uses and indicator that depicts the flow of volume as an oscillator. If volume has a lower high, you sell. If volume has a higher low, you buy. How is that for simple? Since you can program, now you need to figure out how to take the data volume and depict it into a lower study that oscillates.