Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

jughead

Probably Being Too Stupid ?

Recommended Posts

Hi everyone,

Glad to have found this forum , some of the posts have been very informative.

I am engineer working for a bank on the east coast and immensely interested in trading.

Im currently making around 100k a year at an immensely stressful job.

So would have to change jobs to myself the reasonable amount to time to work at improving my minimal trading ability.

 

Just wondering if making a move to a job which pays 80k on the west coast would be financially rational at this point. I have no great track record to convince myself. I have traded a few years back and really loved it back then .

 

What would be the probability that I would make enough to seek trading as a full time career that would replace my current income stream ?

 

Thanks for your time,

JJ

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi everyone,

 

What would be the probability that I would make enough to seek trading as a full time career that would replace my current income stream ?

 

JJ

 

Impossible to answer, but there are no stupid questions when it comes to trading as it can be done in a multiple of manners/styles/methods/timeframes, but as you asked for probability......:)

Given the often thrown around number of 95% of traders closing their accounts, I would say you have a 5% chance of succeeding.

Given this and you need to replace some current income stream, a lot would then depend on how much you need to replace and how much you have to trade with.....

so given simple probability from my days in formal education was when faced with "this" and "this" occurring you needed to multiply....

Probability of succeeding * probability of making enough money = Slim

 

However, there is no substitute for a good education, take your time, and the rewards for success are great, either and or both from a monetary point of view, and a lifestyle point of view (they can be potentially devastating from an emotional point of view). It can be done - just dont believe the hype of instant riches etc. (although this is also not impossible)

 

Also ask yourself...... if I dont try this, will I regret it in twenty years? What is the cost of any three year University course? Why not try and get into the trading area in the bank you are working at and train while getting paid? Do I really want to trade, or do I just not want to do my high stress job?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi JJ

Its a tough decision.I hope this doesnt sound too negative but the chances of trading successful these days on the route you are thinking is very slim. Just one thing to consider.

We often fantasize about getting away from a stressful job where we are not working on our own terms to one where we reckon we will be at ease.The "best" path has always been the stressful one due to using it for personal growth. I know this isnt what you really want to hear.

What happens is we get into trading while working at a job we dont like and get so engrossed into trading we find it interesting and fascinating and we split the good into trading and the bad into our stressful job.The trick with Trading is proving we have an edge.

 

 

Prove your method first before doing anything.Do you really have an edge yet ?

 

Just some ramblings JJ

 

good luck in whatever you do mate

 

Best

John

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Personally if I was looking at a 100K job and it was extremely stressful and basically killing me vs. taking an 80K job where I expected it to be far less stressful, and ideally in a better location I'd opt for the latter without even thinking about the trading element.

 

As far as whether you could get to the point of replacing all of this with trading the answer of course is yes, and no. Because it is highly risky and nobody should tell you that you can't, but everyone is likely to tell you that is will not be easy. And you just might find that the stress you're experience in your current job is a walk in the park compared to trying to trade for yourself full-time and pull an income.

 

I'd approach it separately. Decide on the job, your lifestyle and health first, plus the paycut.

 

Then, I'd focus on starting to learn about trading - think just trading north of positive as your objective - forget about steady income part-time or full-time or seeking something that works like a paycheck because in trading it won't. Even when you're very good the earnings won't be smooth -- big months and down months will be the norm. Once your successful. Risk as little as possible, especially if you take the paycut, in the beginning you're going to lose and lose often but if you keep your account size and positions to the absolute minimum it can be highly educational without the huge risks.

 

And, do your research and get some good training -- it's hard to do this totally on your own. Don't fall for the get rich quick systems but there's some solid educational training out there to at least get a foundation.

 

Good luck!

 

MMS

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
...

What would be the probability that I would make enough to seek trading as a full time career that would replace my current income stream ?

 

Thanks for your time,

JJ

 

trading is not a career.

 

trading is an addiction.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have to agree with MMS.

 

You clearly know that regardless of the money you make, the balance between its worth and the stress related to making it is pretty delicate. It is meaningless to live a life of stress simply to live.

 

Faced with that situation, I'd leave to the greener pasture. A couple of reasons really. For me, it would be a reset. Atmosphere is so important. I never think it is too late to start over and frankly, can be very good for the soul.

 

Trading can be frustrating and probably even more so when you want to use it to get away from something...like the stress you have. The fastest way to a blown account and tossing in the towel is rushing. Rushing to make the money to help escape where you are.

 

I don't think anybody is able to give you a yes or no answer nor even a probability score. Perhaps if there were not so many factors involved, an answer could be made. Much depends on you and your utility. Losses, losing money, making money brings out so much in each of us.

 

Is it worth the ride? I think it is. Do I think life is far too precious to be stuck simply because the money is good where you? Most certainly. I tend to give everybody a ton of credit and believe if it is important to them...they will excel.

 

Two cents only.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nice reply Justaguy.

 

You bring up a good point as well -- if someone makes the change to try trading, even with perhaps the odds stacked against them (much depends on the training you receive early on) you can always go back.

 

And, will you end up regretting and being unhappy because you didn't take the gamble when you had the chance?

 

Sometimes you have to roll the dice. Know what you're getting into, and clearly accept the risks that it may very well not work, but nothing says you can't go back and at least you can say you tried.

 

And, to save you a lot of pain - do you not buy forex robots, do not buy into automated trading, do not buy into anything where the returns seem too exciting. Instead, pursue something where you win more than you lose, maybe it's a 60% - 65% win ratio, the average wins are at least a bit higher than average losses, and make sure it always accounts for commissions and slippage. That's a winning formula but for most it doesn't excite them since it's not 90% winners, 3:1 reward risk, and all hypothetical with perfect no slip executions or costs. If you put a hard set of demands to whatever strategy you pursue that are realistic you'll save yourself countless time and money.

 

 

I have to agree with MMS.

 

You clearly know that regardless of the money you make, the balance between its worth and the stress related to making it is pretty delicate. It is meaningless to live a life of stress simply to live.

 

Faced with that situation, I'd leave to the greener pasture. A couple of reasons really. For me, it would be a reset. Atmosphere is so important. I never think it is too late to start over and frankly, can be very good for the soul.

 

Trading can be frustrating and probably even more so when you want to use it to get away from something...like the stress you have. The fastest way to a blown account and tossing in the towel is rushing. Rushing to make the money to help escape where you are.

 

I don't think anybody is able to give you a yes or no answer nor even a probability score. Perhaps if there were not so many factors involved, an answer could be made. Much depends on you and your utility. Losses, losing money, making money brings out so much in each of us.

 

Is it worth the ride? I think it is. Do I think life is far too precious to be stuck simply because the money is good where you? Most certainly. I tend to give everybody a ton of credit and believe if it is important to them...they will excel.

 

Two cents only.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

JJ,

 

I know this always sound corny when people say it but there is more to life than just money. If someone would have told me that a year ago I would have just laughed at them. However, after ignoring the stress in my life for too long my health took a big hit this year. In fact my doctor told me I was close to not making it. All that to say I would gladly take a paycut if that meant a less stressful job. Life is too short to work yourself to death in order to make an extra buck.

 

Trading isn't easy by any means. You just need to decide what's important to you. If you think it's easy money then you are dead wrong. I have had to work my tail off to become a successful trader. However, if done correctly trading can give you incredible flexibility to do other things.

 

Hopefully you are able to make a decision that allows you to reduce the stress in your life. Trust me you don't want to deal with the consequences of too much stress.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • My wife Robin just wanted some groceries.   Simple enough.   She parked the car for fifteen minutes, and returned to find a huge scratch on the side.   Someone keyed her car.   To be clear, this isn’t just any car.   It’s a Cybertruck—Elon Musk's stainless-steel spaceship on wheels. She bought it back in 2021, before Musk became everyone's favorite villain or savior.   Someone saw it parked in a grocery lot and felt compelled to carve their hatred directly into the metal.   That's what happens when you stand out.   Nobody keys a beige minivan.   When you're polarizing, you're impossible to ignore. But the irony is: the more attention something has, the harder it is to find the truth about it.   What’s Elon Musk really thinking? What are his plans? What will happen with DOGE? Is he deserving of all of this adoration and hate? Hard to say.   Ideas work the same way.   Take tariffs, for example.   Tariffs have become the Cybertrucks of economic policy. People either love them or hate them. Even if they don’t understand what they are and how they work. (Most don’t.)   That’s why, in my latest podcast (link below), I wanted to explore the “in-between” truth about tariffs.   And like Cybertrucks, I guess my thoughts on tariffs are polarizing.   Greg Gutfield mentioned me on Fox News. Harvard professors hate me now. (I wonder if they also key Cybertrucks?)   But before I show you what I think about tariffs… I have to mention something.   We’re Headed to Austin, Texas This weekend, my team and I are headed to Austin. By now, you should probably know why.   Yes, SXSW is happening. But my team and I are doing something I think is even better.   We’re putting on a FREE event on “Tech’s Turning Point.”   AI, quantum, biotech, crypto, and more—it’s all on the table.   Just now, we posted a special webpage with the agenda.   Click here to check it out and add it to your calendar.   The Truth About Tariffs People love to panic about tariffs causing inflation.   They wave around the ghost of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff from the Great Depression like it’s Exhibit A proving tariffs equal economic collapse.   But let me pop this myth:   Tariffs don’t cause inflation. And no, I'm not crazy (despite what angry professors from Harvard or Stanford might tweet at me).   Here's the deal.   Inflation isn’t when just a couple of things become pricier. It’s when your entire shopping basket—eggs, shirts, Netflix subscriptions, bananas, everything—starts costing more because your money’s worth less.   Inflation means your dollars aren’t stretching as far as they used to.   Take the 1800s.   For nearly a century, 97% of America’s revenue came from tariffs. Income tax? Didn’t exist. And guess what inflation was? Basically zero. Maybe 1% a year.   The economy was booming, and tariffs funded nearly everything. So, why do people suddenly think tariffs cause inflation today?   Tariffs are taxes on imports, yes, but prices are set by supply and demand—not tariffs.   Let me give you a simple example.   Imagine fancy potato chips from Canada cost $10, and a 20% tariff pushes that to $12. Everyone panics—prices rose! Inflation!   Nope.   If I only have $100 to spend and the price of my favorite chips goes up, I either stop buying chips or I buy, say, fewer newspapers.   If everyone stops buying newspapers because they’re overspending on chips, newspapers lower their prices or go out of business.   Overall spending stays the same, and inflation doesn’t budge.   Three quick scenarios:   We buy pricier chips, but fewer other things: Inflation unchanged. Manufacturers shift to the U.S. to avoid tariffs: Inflation unchanged (and more jobs here). We stop buying fancy chips: Prices drop again. Inflation? Still unchanged. The only thing that actually causes inflation is printing money.   Between 2020 and 2022 alone, 40% of all money ever created in history appeared overnight.   That’s why inflation shot up afterward—not because of tariffs.   Back to tariffs today.   Still No Inflation Unlike the infamous Smoot-Hawley blanket tariff (imagine Oprah handing out tariffs: "You get a tariff, and you get a tariff!"), today's tariffs are strategic.   Trump slapped tariffs on chips from Taiwan because we shouldn’t rely on a single foreign supplier for vital tech components—especially if that supplier might get invaded.   Now Taiwan Semiconductor is investing $100 billion in American manufacturing.   Strategic win, no inflation.   Then there’s Canada and Mexico—our friendly neighbors with weirdly huge tariffs on things like milk and butter (299% tariff on butter—really, Canada?).   Trump’s not blanketing everything with tariffs; he’s pressuring trade partners to lower theirs.   If they do, everybody wins. If they don’t, well, then we have a strategic trade chess game—but still no inflation.   In short, tariffs are about strategy, security, and fairness—not inflation.   Yes, blanket tariffs from the Great Depression era were dumb. Obviously. Today's targeted tariffs? Smart.   Listen to the whole podcast to hear why I think this.   And by the way, if you see a Cybertruck, don’t key it. Robin doesn’t care about your politics; she just likes her weird truck.   Maybe read a good book, relax, and leave cars alone.   (And yes, nobody keys Volkswagens, even though they were basically created by Hitler. Strange world we live in.) Source: https://altucherconfidential.com/posts/the-truth-about-tariffs-busting-the-inflation-myth    Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/       
    • No, not if you are comparing apples to apples. What we call “poor” is obviously a pretty high bar but if you’re talking about like a total homeless shambling skexie in like San Fran then, no. The U.S.A. in not particularly kind to you. It is not an abuse so much as it is a sad relatively minor consequence of our optimism and industriousness.   What you consider rich changes with circumstances obviously. If you are genuinely poor in the U.S.A., you experience a quirky hodgepodge of unhelpful and/or abstract extreme lavishnesses while also being alienated from your social support network. It’s about the same as being a refugee. For a fraction of the ‘kindness’ available to you in non bio-available form, you could have simply stayed closer to your people and been MUCH better off.   It’s just a quirk of how we run the place and our values; we are more worried about interfering with people’s liberty and natural inclination to do for themselves than we are about no bums left behind. It is a slightly hurtful position and we know it; we are just scared to death of socialism cancer and we’re willing to put our money where our mouth is.   So, if you’re a bum; you got 5G, the ER will spend like $1,000,000 on you over a hangnail but then kick you out as soon as you’re “stabilized”, the logistics are surpremely efficient, you have total unchecked freedom of speech, real-estate, motels, and jobs are all natural healthy markets in perfect competition, you got compulsory three ‘R’’s, your military owns the sky, sea, space, night, information-space, and has the best hairdos, you can fill out paper and get all the stuff up to and including a Ph.D. Pretty much everything a very generous, eager, flawless go-getter with five minutes to spare would think you might need.   It’s worse. Our whole society is competitive and we do NOT value or make any kumbaya exception. The last kumbaya types we had werr the Shakers and they literally went extinct. Pueblo peoples are still around but they kind of don’t count since they were here before us. So basically, if you’re poor in the U.S.A., you are automatically a loser and a deadbeat too. You will be treated as such by anybody not specifically either paid to deal with you or shysters selling bejesus, Amway, and drugs. Plus, it ain’t safe out there. Not everybody uses muhfreedoms to lift their truck, people be thugging and bums are very vulnerable here. The history of a large mobile workforce means nobody has a village to go home to. Source: https://askdaddy.quora.com/Are-the-poor-people-in-the-United-States-the-richest-poor-people-in-the-world-6   Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/ 
    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.