Probably Being Too Stupid ?

[jughead 10]

Hi everyone,

Glad to have found this forum , some of the posts have been very informative.

I am engineer working for a bank on the east coast and immensely interested in trading.

Im currently making around 100k a year at an immensely stressful job.

So would have to change jobs to myself the reasonable amount to time to work at improving my minimal trading ability.

 

Just wondering if making a move to a job which pays 80k on the west coast would be financially rational at this point. I have no great track record to convince myself. I have traded a few years back and really loved it back then .

 

What would be the probability that I would make enough to seek trading as a full time career that would replace my current income stream ?

 

Thanks for your time,

JJ

[SIUYA 11]

Hi everyone,

 

What would be the probability that I would make enough to seek trading as a full time career that would replace my current income stream ?

 

JJ

 

Impossible to answer, but there are no stupid questions when it comes to trading as it can be done in a multiple of manners/styles/methods/timeframes, but as you asked for probability......

Given the often thrown around number of 95% of traders closing their accounts, I would say you have a 5% chance of succeeding.

Given this and you need to replace some current income stream, a lot would then depend on how much you need to replace and how much you have to trade with.....

so given simple probability from my days in formal education was when faced with "this" and "this" occurring you needed to multiply....

Probability of succeeding * probability of making enough money = Slim

 

However, there is no substitute for a good education, take your time, and the rewards for success are great, either and or both from a monetary point of view, and a lifestyle point of view (they can be potentially devastating from an emotional point of view). It can be done - just dont believe the hype of instant riches etc. (although this is also not impossible)

 

Also ask yourself...... if I dont try this, will I regret it in twenty years? What is the cost of any three year University course? Why not try and get into the trading area in the bank you are working at and train while getting paid? Do I really want to trade, or do I just not want to do my high stress job?

[JBWTrader 10]

Hi JJ

Its a tough decision.I hope this doesnt sound too negative but the chances of trading successful these days on the route you are thinking is very slim. Just one thing to consider.

We often fantasize about getting away from a stressful job where we are not working on our own terms to one where we reckon we will be at ease.The "best" path has always been the stressful one due to using it for personal growth. I know this isnt what you really want to hear.

What happens is we get into trading while working at a job we dont like and get so engrossed into trading we find it interesting and fascinating and we split the good into trading and the bad into our stressful job.The trick with Trading is proving we have an edge.

 

 

Prove your method first before doing anything.Do you really have an edge yet ?

 

Just some ramblings JJ

 

good luck in whatever you do mate

 

Best

John

[MadMarketScientist 11]

Personally if I was looking at a 100K job and it was extremely stressful and basically killing me vs. taking an 80K job where I expected it to be far less stressful, and ideally in a better location I'd opt for the latter without even thinking about the trading element.

 

As far as whether you could get to the point of replacing all of this with trading the answer of course is yes, and no. Because it is highly risky and nobody should tell you that you can't, but everyone is likely to tell you that is will not be easy. And you just might find that the stress you're experience in your current job is a walk in the park compared to trying to trade for yourself full-time and pull an income.

 

I'd approach it separately. Decide on the job, your lifestyle and health first, plus the paycut.

 

Then, I'd focus on starting to learn about trading - think just trading north of positive as your objective - forget about steady income part-time or full-time or seeking something that works like a paycheck because in trading it won't. Even when you're very good the earnings won't be smooth -- big months and down months will be the norm. Once your successful. Risk as little as possible, especially if you take the paycut, in the beginning you're going to lose and lose often but if you keep your account size and positions to the absolute minimum it can be highly educational without the huge risks.

 

And, do your research and get some good training -- it's hard to do this totally on your own. Don't fall for the get rich quick systems but there's some solid educational training out there to at least get a foundation.

 

Good luck!

 

MMS

[Tams 20]

...

What would be the probability that I would make enough to seek trading as a full time career that would replace my current income stream ?

 

Thanks for your time,

JJ

 

trading is not a career.

 

trading is an addiction.

[Justaguy 10]

I have to agree with MMS.

 

You clearly know that regardless of the money you make, the balance between its worth and the stress related to making it is pretty delicate. It is meaningless to live a life of stress simply to live.

 

Faced with that situation, I'd leave to the greener pasture. A couple of reasons really. For me, it would be a reset. Atmosphere is so important. I never think it is too late to start over and frankly, can be very good for the soul.

 

Trading can be frustrating and probably even more so when you want to use it to get away from something...like the stress you have. The fastest way to a blown account and tossing in the towel is rushing. Rushing to make the money to help escape where you are.

 

I don't think anybody is able to give you a yes or no answer nor even a probability score. Perhaps if there were not so many factors involved, an answer could be made. Much depends on you and your utility. Losses, losing money, making money brings out so much in each of us.

 

Is it worth the ride? I think it is. Do I think life is far too precious to be stuck simply because the money is good where you? Most certainly. I tend to give everybody a ton of credit and believe if it is important to them...they will excel.

 

Two cents only.

[MadMarketScientist 11]

Nice reply Justaguy.

 

You bring up a good point as well -- if someone makes the change to try trading, even with perhaps the odds stacked against them (much depends on the training you receive early on) you can always go back.

 

And, will you end up regretting and being unhappy because you didn't take the gamble when you had the chance?

 

Sometimes you have to roll the dice. Know what you're getting into, and clearly accept the risks that it may very well not work, but nothing says you can't go back and at least you can say you tried.

 

And, to save you a lot of pain - do you not buy forex robots, do not buy into automated trading, do not buy into anything where the returns seem too exciting. Instead, pursue something where you win more than you lose, maybe it's a 60% - 65% win ratio, the average wins are at least a bit higher than average losses, and make sure it always accounts for commissions and slippage. That's a winning formula but for most it doesn't excite them since it's not 90% winners, 3:1 reward risk, and all hypothetical with perfect no slip executions or costs. If you put a hard set of demands to whatever strategy you pursue that are realistic you'll save yourself countless time and money.

 

 

I have to agree with MMS.

 

You clearly know that regardless of the money you make, the balance between its worth and the stress related to making it is pretty delicate. It is meaningless to live a life of stress simply to live.

 

Faced with that situation, I'd leave to the greener pasture. A couple of reasons really. For me, it would be a reset. Atmosphere is so important. I never think it is too late to start over and frankly, can be very good for the soul.

 

Trading can be frustrating and probably even more so when you want to use it to get away from something...like the stress you have. The fastest way to a blown account and tossing in the towel is rushing. Rushing to make the money to help escape where you are.

 

I don't think anybody is able to give you a yes or no answer nor even a probability score. Perhaps if there were not so many factors involved, an answer could be made. Much depends on you and your utility. Losses, losing money, making money brings out so much in each of us.

 

Is it worth the ride? I think it is. Do I think life is far too precious to be stuck simply because the money is good where you? Most certainly. I tend to give everybody a ton of credit and believe if it is important to them...they will excel.

 

Two cents only.

[cuttshot 11]

JJ,

 

I know this always sound corny when people say it but there is more to life than just money. If someone would have told me that a year ago I would have just laughed at them. However, after ignoring the stress in my life for too long my health took a big hit this year. In fact my doctor told me I was close to not making it. All that to say I would gladly take a paycut if that meant a less stressful job. Life is too short to work yourself to death in order to make an extra buck.

 

Trading isn't easy by any means. You just need to decide what's important to you. If you think it's easy money then you are dead wrong. I have had to work my tail off to become a successful trader. However, if done correctly trading can give you incredible flexibility to do other things.

 

Hopefully you are able to make a decision that allows you to reduce the stress in your life. Trust me you don't want to deal with the consequences of too much stress.