Collective Fundamental Analysis

[Vito_Corneo 10]

Hi!

I am trading futures for 1.5 years, however only for last 4-5 months I’ve started to realize consistent positive returns. Probably position trading would be the most appropriate definition of my style. I have been trading using the technical approach only in my decision-making process. Recently I’ve started including fundamental models in the analysis, and it brought obvious advantages. Though, I find that it takes a significant amount of time and efforts to find the data, construct a model, modify it and test it. I think that it is extremely difficult if not impossible to perform a sound fundamental analysis on your own within a reasonable timeframe. Nevertheless, I believe that fundamental component is a vital tool that can well indicate preconditions for bull or bear markets.

 

I guess that there must be other traders who find them selves in a similar situation. I would like to find/create a small network or association of traders (2-4 traders) with similar to mine ideas. I believe sincerely that team work in performing fundamental analysis (not taking trading decisions) is essential. I see the work of the group in the following way:

 

 Group decides what market(s) to focus on;

 

 The group decides what method(s) to use (Regression, Index models, Seasonality) and what data to gather.

 

 Members divide the list of data to collect among them and establish deadlines;

 

 Once all data is collected and formatted we send the parts to each other, so everybody has all the data required for a complete analysis.

 

 Members divide the analysis in parts. And everybody does his own part.

 

 Once all parts are completed, somebody puts everything together and sends to everybody.

 

 Then we test the model(s);

 

 When everybody is satisfied with the analysis, the group work ends.

 

 Interpreting the results, taking a decision, money management, etc. are individual concerns and are not on the agenda of group discussions. Basically we only collect the data and construct a complete fundamental model(s) together. Everything else is everyone’s own business.

 

Obvious advantages of such a cartel are:

 

 You spend much less time to do the research and construct the model;

 

 You have a greater chance to get a better and more complete data, as everybody has different sources of information (or more or less different) and there is more manpower to collect make a comprehensive research and find the best available data;

 

 The model is less likely to be subjective since different traders will judge upon the process from different perspectives and thus decrease the bias;

 

 Although the analysis is done in group, your way of trading is not affected anyhow. Even if you still prefer to further modify the model, you can do it on your own, as you have all the available data. You take your trading decision on your own;

 

 And anyways many good heads is better than one.

 

The group will be small, so there shouldn’t be many communication problems.

 

Anyways everything above is just my ideas; it can be done in a different way.

If you are interested in doing the fundamental analysis for futures together, please write me an e-mail: vito.corneo@gmail.com. It also would be great to hear what you think of such an idea? Any kind of a feedback is welcome!