Win $500 - Simply Predict The Markets Closing Price!

[Cory2679 11]

Exactly one month to go! I typed in today's closing prices to SIUYA's spreadsheet and it looks like R3VBR is currently in the lead...

 

EDIT: and it looks like DylKay is in second place, and stevensSJC is in third (going by the absolute value of the difference between the person's total and today's total)...

 

Edited December 1, 2010 by Cory2679

[MadMarketScientist 11]

Thanks for doing that and giving us the update!

 

MMS

[nikole.957 10]

I'm in...here's mine:

 

Dow 10,963

S&P500 1,130

Nasdaq Comp 2,412

 

I'm praying all doesn't go to hell in a hand basket - whatever that means. So this is my 'things will get better' prediction in particular after the election even if it crumbles before.

With all the back and forth volatility, I don't think the market will change much between now and then, so why not put up the same numbers that are up today

[nikole.957 10]

Thanks for sharing. It's great

[thalestrader 14]

With all the back and forth volatility, I don't think the market will change much between now and then, so why not put up the same numbers that are up today

 

You had to make your guess by September 22 or something like that, so you could only use today's numbers if you had guessed them three months ago.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[MadMarketScientist 11]

Just a few days left to go....

 

Barring a surprise, which might be unlikely given all the snowed in traders it would be appear the bulls on the board are in the running, those of you who were bearish, not so much.

 

Let's see what happens to close the week and get the final numbers soon!

 

MMS

[thalestrader 14]

Just a few days left to go.... it would be appear the bulls on the board are in the running, those of you who were bearish, not so much.

 

Let's see what happens to close the week and get the final numbers soon!

 

MMS

 

Well, it is a bull market, you know ...

 

Based on what I spy with my eye, it looks like the bulls were running at TL and have come out on top of the less bullish to downright bearish counts.

 

Happy New Year folks, and don't let anyone tell you that fib's and Stephenson WPTT's are not useful when used within the context of the primary trend.

 

I think that this could make for an interesting quarterly game here at TL, if MMS is amenable to it.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Hi there MMS,

 

Any thoughts on renewing this contest? If not quarterly perhaps you could simply run another pick the year's closing price, but start it now and cut entries off at the end of January. Its one thing to pick the close three months out. It is entirely another to pick it out a whole year.

 

Also, may I suggest that if you do run the contest again, you judge it as suggested by Blowfish in his post above - determine the difference between each guess and the actual close for each individual index, and then add those three numbers together - the lowest number across the board wins.

 

In terms of this years contest, if my math is correct, it actually works out that the closest guess on the total also was closest on each of the three indices, but you could see that it would be easy for someone to be way off on all three, but by an arithmetic accident, nonetheless wins the contest based on the simple total of the his or her three guesses.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[MadMarketScientist 11]

Yep, great ideas.

 

I need to announce the winners which I'll work on in the next day or so.

 

And then, definitely we should do it again. I think a quarterly and a year-end.

 

I'm going to post a new thread to kick it off so check in this same forum - Market Analysis --

 

Thanks.

 

MMS

[MadMarketScientist 11]

And now, time to announce the winners.

 

With much fanfare and an absolutely amazing prediction the winner and reigning champion (possibly psychic?) is:

 

THALESTRADER

 

Prediction? 15,469.47

Actual? 15,488.02

 

Ok, that is freakin incredible. Thalestrader, you "missed" by about 19 points total -- a fraction of a percent. I want you managing my portfolio! Great job, this might stand as the closest prediction ever -- hard to beat going forward.

 

SECOND PLACE: "YUPPIE_MO" with another stirring set of predictions. Off just 89 points from the final total. Wow - great job.

 

THIRD PLACE: DWG0 -- great job, tough competition above but you did well - and the key was being bullish. The bulls won out for sure.

 

Remember, nice winnings....1st Place $500 Amazon Gift Card, 2nd Place $200 and 3rd Place $50 Gift Cards. See, that's why the rest of you observers should have posted!

 

And, you have another chance -- see the new thread just above this one -- get your predictions in now.

 

A special thanks to SIUYA for the great work on the Excel spreadsheet that made my life much easier.

 

We'll certify these in the next day or so -- just wanted to put it out there in case anyone sees any errors I made but I think we're there.

 

MMS

[JBWTrader 10]

Congrats to the winners !

ie

 

Thalestrader

YUPPIE_MO

DWG0

 

To echo MadMarketScientist's comments, Amazing result Thales !! well done !!

 

Best

John

[thalestrader 14]

And now, time to announce the winners.

 

With much fanfare and an absolutely amazing prediction the winner and reigning champion (possibly psychic?) is:

 

THALESTRADER

 

Prediction? 15,469.47

Actual? 15,488.02

 

Ok, that is freakin incredible. Thalestrader, you "missed" by about 19 points total -- a fraction of a percent. I want you managing my portfolio! Great job, this might stand as the closest prediction ever -- hard to beat going forward.

 

No psychic abilities here, MMS. That performance will be hard for me to beat. This particular contest started during a period where the market was likely finishing five month consolidation - so it was an easy bet to be a bull, and then the question was simply "how bullish?" I then used some fib projections and Stephenson-like time targets to pick a likely price level for the market to reside at during the last two weeks of December. After all, it was a safe bet that we'd only be dealing with one intermediate term swing during the September-December period.

 

The new contest is much more difficult, as during the course of this coming year, I would anticipate four intermediate swings (the current uptrend + three more distinct intermediate swings). It was much easier to guess where one swing would be and a specific point in time, especially when we already knew the prior upswing high and the down swing low. We now have to guess where the market will be in three months and 12 months, but we do not have a certain upswing high in place yet. That makes the new contest much more of a "guess" whereas this contest was more of an "educated guess."

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[MightyMouse 12]

No psychic abilities here, MMS. That performance will be hard for me to beat. This particular contest started during a period where the market was likely finishing five month consolidation - so it was an easy bet to be a bull, and then the question was simply "how bullish?" I then used some fib projections and Stephenson-like time targets to pick a likely price level for the market to reside at during the last two weeks of December. After all, it was a safe bet that we'd only be dealing with one intermediate term swing during the September-December period.

 

The new contest is much more difficult, as during the course of this coming year, I would anticipate four intermediate swings (the current uptrend + three more distinct intermediate swings). It was much easier to guess where one swing would be and a specific point in time, especially when we already knew the prior upswing high and the down swing low. We now have to guess where the market will be in three months and 12 months, but we do not have a certain upswing high in place yet. That makes the new contest much more of a "guess" whereas this contest was more of an "educated guess."

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Good Job.

 

This time around it will be exactly as hard to guess as it was last time around.

 

Good luck.

[thalestrader 14]

This time around it will be exactly as hard to guess as it was last time around.

 

So, are you in?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[MightyMouse 12]

So, are you in?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

No. I have no idea of where it will be. I need to guess if someone is going to be there in the next 5 to 120 minutes to pay me if I am in a trade or if I am going to be the one paying.

[SIUYA 11]

MightMouse - clearly then you are not a trader ....and I say this for anyone who does not want to participate.

You have been given a free option to guess at where the market will be at zero cost to yourself. ( Apart from a bit of ego), and you dont really need to do anything except guess at a few numbers...... and yet you say no......

call me old fashioned.....its a great trade. I will take this all day everyday.

[MightyMouse 12]

MightMouse - clearly then you are not a trader ....and I say this for anyone who does not want to participate.

You have been given a free option to guess at where the market will be at zero cost to yourself. ( Apart from a bit of ego), and you dont really need to do anything except guess at a few numbers...... and yet you say no......

call me old fashioned.....its a great trade. I will take this all day everyday.

 

Siuya,

 

I almost feel like you are calling into question my manhood. God knows I need to defend that.

 

MM

[MadMarketScientist 11]

Deadline is fast approaching on the new costest -- get your entries in:

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f2/round-two-predict-market-close-contest-9050.html

 

And remind your other TL buddies to do the same so we can meet the entry minimum....up to $1,000 prize on the line!

 

MMS

[SIUYA 11]

Siuya,

 

I almost feel like you are calling into question my manhood. God knows I need to defend that.

 

MM

 

Not at all. You don''t need to be a man to trade.

But I would argue you are not likely to be a trader if you cannot see a free trade/option.

 

this was deliberately meant to goad you into participating......and the same for everyone else.

(it has nothing to do with your manhood.....maybe I should have asked are you a man or a mouse :haha:)

 

Given the oft quoted 95% failure rate......and the lack of willing participants in the contest, then I am starting to think there is more likely to be a 99.9% failure rate, and the reasons are becoming obvious.

Edited January 9, 2011 by SIUYA

[thalestrader 14]

This time around it will be exactly as hard to guess as it was last time around.

 

I know that you believe that, but it really was relatively easy this time, and it is far more difficult this this time. I'll tell you why after 1/11.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[yuppie_money 10]

And now, time to announce the winners.

 

With much fanfare and an absolutely amazing prediction the winner and reigning champion (possibly psychic?) is:

 

THALESTRADER

 

Prediction? 15,469.47

Actual? 15,488.02

 

Ok, that is freakin incredible. Thalestrader, you "missed" by about 19 points total -- a fraction of a percent. I want you managing my portfolio! Great job, this might stand as the closest prediction ever -- hard to beat going forward.

 

SECOND PLACE: "YUPPIE_MO" with another stirring set of predictions. Off just 89 points from the final total. Wow - great job.

 

THIRD PLACE: DWG0 -- great job, tough competition above but you did well - and the key was being bullish. The bulls won out for sure.

 

Remember, nice winnings....1st Place $500 Amazon Gift Card, 2nd Place $200 and 3rd Place $50 Gift Cards. See, that's why the rest of you observers should have posted!

 

And, you have another chance -- see the new thread just above this one -- get your predictions in now.

 

A special thanks to SIUYA for the great work on the Excel spreadsheet that made my life much easier.

 

We'll certify these in the next day or so -- just wanted to put it out there in case anyone sees any errors I made but I think we're there.

 

MMS

 

Hey MMS,

 

Is there anything you need from us to receive our prizes? Or should we just wait?

[snowbird 10]

...This particular contest started during a period where the market was likely finishing five month consolidation - so it was an easy bet to be a bull, ....

Thales

 

Consolidation was visible on the charts for all to see... but price had not broken out at the time and could have potentially broken either way ultimately. What factors (other than seasonality) put you squarely in the "easy bet to be a bull" camp as you so positioned back in September "Well, this is a bull market, you know! - Mr. Partridge"

 

Was it the volume and HL on the 1st of the month?

 

snowbird

[thalestrader 14]

Hey MMS,

 

Is there anything you need from us to receive our prizes? Or should we just wait?

 

I'm hoping we get them soon ... I promised my kids Kindle Readers all around if I won, and I'd like to use TL gift card to purchase them.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[MadMarketScientist 11]

To my winners, do me a favor and private message me with the email address you'd like me to use to send the Amazon $. I can use what you have on file in your profile but just in case there's a different/preferred just let me know. I'll process these later today. Thanks.

 

MMS

[thalestrader 14]

This little contest was avery good trade for me as I got the pay off this morning.

 

Thank You, MMS!

 

Here's to wishing you and TL the best!

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales