Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

youngesttrader

News Events/Reports and How They Correlate with That Days Market Activity

Recommended Posts

Hey guys,

 

Im pretty new face around here at TL but i have a passion for trading more so the E-MINI S&P this previous week i have noticed that since the ISM MFG reports were good the market also shot up a great deal, same follows with the unemployment reports on friday.. good news = big uptrend in the market that day. Basically the question is how many of you guys have kept journals regarding these correlations and what input can you offer me based on your experiences.

 

What days are likely to produce up/down trends based on news releases/reports, What days you should be wary to trade on following a specific report etc.. discuss i think this would be beneficial for a lot of e-mini traders on here.

 

youngest,

 

cheers :cool:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There's a lot of direction we could go in discussing news and trading.

 

Here are a few things that have served me well.

 

If you daytrade the markets will move beyond your target or stop with important news. If you go to the Economic Calendar here on TL at: Economic Calendar any of the High rated reports will likely move the market it is influencing (usually the geo location of that report)

 

And, I always say it's a coin toss with the report. Meaning you have about 50/50 odds it will go for or against you. And, one thing that sometimes makes news trading more difficult is when it goes your way you will almost always get executed exactly at your limit order - rare to get positive slippage. And, if you get stopped out, it is actually somewhat common to get slippage -- and not executed at your stop. So with a 50/50 chance of success, and the fact that you will rarely get positive slippage but can get negative it's not a great coin toss.

 

What I do is if I'm in a position ahead of the news I tend to hold through the news and except my fate. However, if I'm not in a trade and I get a set-up 5 minutes or closer to the report I ignore it - I won't take the trade. And, then I'll take the next signal, or try and get in synch with the one I filtered out no sooner than 2 minutes after news up to 5 minutes after news.

 

I find this to be far safer and less like gambling -- which usually isn't good for your trading account.

 

What I will say though is news can be great - it really is what powers a market up and down so I'm not saying you should avoid it like the plague - just have a very specific and consistent way of handling it.

 

Also, the monthly jobs report -- I actually go flat ahead of that -- example, a month ago I was long on an index and was traveling so didn't get flat. It went against me and I had huge slippage. This time, on Friday I was able to go flat. What happened? It gapped up my way - I would have profited quite significantly. However, I know I did the right thing even though it backfired on me this time - because next time the odds say the reverse will happen. And, I'm not smart enough to guess the numbers these reports will release -- nor do I imagine can anyone.

 

Hope that helps.

 

MMS

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Unless you gamble, it is always wise to stay away from news event.most news are done around 10 est, so you still have more than 6 hours to trade.

 

I only trade til 11 or 11:30 and there usually a setup shortly after the news

 

Swyped from my EVO

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I did not mean neccesarily trading the news report at the time it is released, Was referring more to how the over all trading day unfolds after a certain news event. Has anyone kept a journal of this? as for how the day unfolds after a FOMC or ISM, Unemployment etc.. seems to be alot more probability of a trend day when the news is an extreme good/bad. hope that made it clearer !

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It will be interesting to know if anyone has it to that level of detail.

 

What I can say based upon my observation, not logging every event of course, but over 15 years trading is the extreme misses or beats of the numbers are the ones that lead to big reactions and trends.

 

However, I've been shocked many times to see a big move or gap - reach a quick point of exhaustion and quickly reverse.

 

I find that numbers that come in-line or just above/below tend to have a short lived reaction.

 

I have my doubts that there is any really reliable play that can be made strictly based upon the level of the hit/miss of these key reports.

 

Just my observation.

 

MMS

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I totally agree. Dont forget that it's not always what the news is, but how people interpret the news. Good news to you and I may not be so for the market.

 

What would be your strategy for trading the news? A bracket around the price? I've seen on multiple occasions where a trader was filled on both bracketed orders in a split second taking a big loss.

 

I think there is a reason you see your DOM or Trading Think out prior to news releases. The pros are telling you to get out and trade the reaction.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree with the earlier comments. Trading around news can be very difficult. I also like to sit out a couple minutes before the release and thet get back in a few minutes after. Often times you will see an action-reaction-action move. You will get an initial move right at the release followed by a reaction in the opposite direction then finally a third move back in the direction of the original move.

 

Even if you find a way to get an edge around news you need to keep in mind the possible slippage. You can really get some nasty fills trading around news.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Apr 28, 2001 The U.S. news at 8:30 am this morning was bad. Where was the bottom of the SP e-mini today? At 8:30am. Wait! Hold on! The news was BAD, and then the ES went up all day? Yes, that's right. The second the bad news at 8:30 came out, the es bottomed and started going up. Why? Probably in anticipation of the 10am news. And the 10am news was unexpectedly good. Pending home sales were way up. Does somebody know something before the official new release? Who knows? The reality is, that the ES seems to somehow (magically?) move towards a price that reflects the real news, way before it's released.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't keep a journal of how news moves the markets, because I rarely see a usable pattern, it keeps changing over time.

 

Expectations rule, they set the table. News so often has the exact opposite impact than what "logic" would deem an appropriate response by the crowd. Just like a lot of other things in the market, it can be rather random and hard to predict.

 

Occasionally real money can be made, if one waits until clarity appears after the frenzy.

 

Wednesday CL dipped with the bad news of a much larger than expected inventory increase in crude oil, and then went up about 2 dollars within an hour and 15 minutes. Not exceptionally predictable or logical, but for some was very profitable!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

its a combination of the overriding trend - bull markets tend to ignore bad news

a combination of the current context and mood - is the market nervous, bouyant, bearish, bullish

a combination of expectation and then the magnitude of that the potential influence of those expectations and the possible move - eg; bad news might cause a market to fall for a day, and then rally as its in an uptrend

the fact that often news is actually historically reported

the fact that news is often based on opinion and not fact

this then leads to incorrect assumptions

the fact that news is often irrelevant, its not news, its a small piece of the jigsaw.......

This is often why I dont listen to the news

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • NFLX Netflix stock watch, local support and resistance areas at 838.12 and 880.5 at https://stockconsultant.com/?NFLX
    • NFLX Netflix stock watch, local support and resistance areas at 838.12 and 880.5 at https://stockconsultant.com/?NFLX
    • Hello citizens of the U.S. The hundred year trade war has leaked over into a trading war. Your equity holdings are under attack by huge sovereign funds shorting relentlessly... running basically the opposite of  PPT operations.  As an American you are blessed to be totally responsible for your own assets - the govt won’t and can’t take care of you, your lame ass whuss ‘retail’ fund managers go catatonic  and can't / won’t help you, etc etc.... If you’re going to hold your positions, it’s on you to hedge your holdings.   Don’t blame Trump, don’t blame the system, don’t even blame the ‘enemies’ - ie don’t blame period.  Just occupy the freedom and responsibility you have and act.  The only mistake ‘Trump’ made so far was not to warn you more explicitly and remind you of your options to hedge weeks ago.   FWIW when Trump got elected... I also failed to explicitly remind you... just sayin’
    • Date: 7th April 2025.   Asian Markets Plunge as US-China Trade War Escalates; Wall Street Futures Signal Further Turmoil.   Global financial markets extended last week’s massive sell-off as tensions between the US and its major trading partners deepened, rattling investors and prompting sharp declines across equities, commodities, and currencies. The fallout from President Trump’s sweeping new tariff measures continued to spread, raising fears of a full-blown trade war and economic recession.   Asian stock markets plunged on Monday, extending a global market rout fueled by rising tensions between the US and China. The latest wave of aggressive tariffs and retaliatory measures has unnerved investors worldwide, triggering sharp sell-offs across the Asia-Pacific region.   Asian equities led the global rout on Monday, with dramatic losses seen across the region. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index tumbled more than 8% shortly after the open, while the broader Topix fell over 6.5%, recovering only slightly from steeper losses. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite sank 6.7%, and the blue-chip CSI300 dropped 7.5% as markets reopened following a public holiday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index opened more than 9% lower, reflecting deep concerns about escalating trade tensions.           South Korea’s Kospi dropped 4.8%, triggering a circuit breaker designed to curb panic selling. Taiwan’s Taiex index collapsed by nearly 10%, with major tech exporters like TSMC and Foxconn hitting circuit breaker limits after each fell close to 10%. Meanwhile, Australia’s ASX 200 shed as much as 6.3%, and New Zealand’s NZX 50 lost over 3.5%.   Despite the escalation, Beijing has adopted a measured tone. Chinese officials urged investors not to panic and assured markets that the country has the tools to mitigate economic shocks. At the same time, they left the door open for renewed trade talks, though no specific timeline has been set.   US Stock Futures Plunge Ahead of Monday Open   US stock futures pointed to another brutal day on Wall Street. Futures tied to the S&P 500 dropped over 3%, Nasdaq futures sank 4%, and Dow Jones futures lost 2.5%—equivalent to nearly 1,000 points. The Nasdaq Composite officially entered a bear market on Friday, down more than 20% from its recent highs, while the S&P 500 is nearing bear territory. The Dow closed last week in correction. Oil prices followed suit, with WTI crude dropping over 4% to $59.49 per barrel—its lowest since April 2021.   Wall Street closed last week in disarray, erasing more than $5 trillion in value amid fears of an all-out trade war. The Nasdaq Composite officially entered a bear market on Friday, sinking more than 20% from its recent peak. The S&P 500 is approaching bear territory, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has slipped firmly into correction territory.   German Banks Hit Hard Amid Escalating Trade Tensions   German banking stocks were among the worst hit in Europe. Shares of Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank plunged between 9.5% and 10.3% during early Frankfurt trading, compounding Friday’s steep losses. Fears over a global trade war and looming recession are severely impacting the financial sector, particularly export-driven economies like Germany.   Eurozone Growth at Risk   Eurozone officials are bracing for economic fallout, with Greek central bank governor Yannis Stournaras warning that Trump’s tariff policy could reduce eurozone GDP by up to 1%. The EU is preparing retaliatory tariffs on $28 billion worth of American goods—ranging from steel and aluminium to consumer products like dental floss and luxury jewellery.   Starting Wednesday, the US is expected to impose 25% tariffs on key EU exports, with Brussels ready to respond with its own 20% levies on nearly all remaining American imports.   UK Faces £22 Billion Economic Blow   In the UK, fresh research from KPMG revealed that the British economy could shrink by £21.6 billion by 2027 due to US-imposed tariffs. The analysis points to a 0.8% dip in economic output over the next two years, undermining Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ growth agenda. The report also warned of additional fiscal pressure that may lead to future tax increases and public spending cuts.   Wall Street Braces for Recession   Goldman Sachs revised its US recession probability to 45% within the next year, citing tighter financial conditions and rising policy uncertainty. This marks a sharp jump from the 35% risk estimated just last month—and more than double January’s 20% projection. J.P. Morgan issued a bleaker outlook, now forecasting a 60% chance of recession both in the US and globally.   Global Leaders Respond as Trade Tensions Deepen   The dramatic market sell-off was triggered by China’s sweeping retaliation to a new round of US tariffs, which included a 34% levy on all American imports. Beijing’s state-run People’s Daily released a defiant statement, asserting that China has the tools and resilience to withstand economic pressure from Washington. ‘We’ve built up experience after years of trade conflict and are prepared with a full arsenal of countermeasures,’ it stated.   Around the world, policymakers are responding to the growing threat of a trade-led economic slowdown. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced plans to appeal directly to Washington and push for tariff relief, following the US administration’s decision to impose a blanket 24% tariff on Japanese imports. He aims to visit the US soon to present Japan’s case as a fair trade partner.   In Taiwan, President Lai Ching-te said his administration would work closely with Washington to remove trade barriers and increase purchases of American goods in an effort to reduce the bilateral trade deficit. The island's defence ministry has also submitted a new list of US military procurements to highlight its strategic partnership.   Economists and strategists are warning of deeper economic consequences. Ronald Temple, chief market strategist at Lazard, said the scale and speed of these tariffs could result in far more severe damage than previously anticipated. ‘This isn’t just a bilateral conflict anymore — more countries are likely to respond in the coming weeks,’ he noted.   Analysts at Barclays cautioned that smaller Asian economies, such as Singapore and South Korea, may face challenges in negotiating with Washington and are already adjusting their economic growth forecasts downward in response to the unfolding trade crisis.           Oil Prices Sink on Demand Concerns   Crude oil continued its sharp slide on Monday, driven by recession fears and weakened global demand. Brent fell 3.9% to $63.04 a barrel, while WTI plunged over 4% to $59.49—both benchmarks marking weekly losses exceeding 10%. Analysts say inflationary pressures and slowing economic activity may drag demand down, even though energy imports were excluded from the latest round of tariffs.   Vandana Hari of Vanda Insights noted, ‘The market is struggling to find a bottom. Until there’s a clear signal from Trump that calms recession fears, crude prices will remain under pressure.’   OPEC+ Adds Further Pressure with Output Hike   Bearish sentiment intensified after OPEC+ announced it would boost production by 411,000 barrels per day in May, far surpassing the expected 135,000 bpd. The alliance called on overproducing nations to submit compensation plans by April 15. Analysts fear this surprise move could undo years of supply discipline and weigh further on already fragile oil markets.   Global political risks also flared over the weekend. Iran rejected US proposals for direct nuclear negotiations and warned of potential military action. Meanwhile, Russia claimed fresh territorial gains in Ukraine’s Sumy region and ramped up attacks on surrounding areas—further darkening the outlook for markets.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Andria Pichidi HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • AMZN Amazon stock watch, good buying (+313%) toi hold onto the 173.32 support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?AMZN
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.