Time and Performance

[UrmaBlume 10]

I was asked these questions:

 

"Pat,

Have you noticed any degradation in performance of your indicators since you first discovered them -- specifically talking about the trade-intensity and order-flow based indicators that you have described on this forum. Have they become less effective as more traders use them?"

 

Answer:

 

Our work is based on the balance of trade/order flow and the influence of the commercial speculator as I leaned it from Peter Steidlmayer almost 30 years ago. Then we had no online volume, no means to determine commercial activity in real-time and no intelligent agents to process the data if we would have had it - now we have all of that and more.

 

Order flow is order flow and always has been. The movment of price is and always has been based on the degree to which order flow is unbalanced. So with regard to order flow nothing has changed except that now, with new technologies, order flow can be more precisely measured and used in ever shorter time frames.

 

As to Intensity the issue has been cross currents in the market, hedging vs spec trades, for that we have developed filters to tell one from the other. In the markets with little or no hedging, arb activity and certain foreigh markets little filtering is needed.

 

As to more and more people using them - we don't make them available to the public so it is a very small number of people indeed who have actually ever seen any of them, let alone, all of them in action.

 

We didn't just "discover" this body of work, we developed it after years of work and testing and it is an ongoing process. We only post about our most basic stuff, nobody has ever seen what we call our "power tools" and the public never will.

 

As I have mentioned I post to try and get people to think beyond what the masses think and do as the masses never succeed at anything let alone something that carries a failure rate at over 90%.

 

Performance over time depends on how closely the work reflects the base dynamics that drive the market.

 

Cheers

 

pat

[Kiwi 16]

As always we should be grateful that someone as important and busy as Urma is willing to grace this humble website with his presence. And the jewels that he casts before you swine should leave you shuddering in ecstasy as he starts yet another thread.

 

Such beneficence.

 

.

Edited August 20, 2010 by Kiwi
Not clearly impressed enough.

[UrmaBlume 10]

Kiwi,

 

And we all thank you Kiwi for yet another in a long series of on-topic, concept-rich, non-personal, objective and technically innovative posts.

 

cheers

 

UrmaBlume

Edited August 20, 2010 by UrmaBlume

[Kiwi 16]

Urma,

 

I wouldn't post in your threads except that you are such a total headcase. And exposing you for what you are seems a worthwhile use of 10 minutes or so every week. I hate to think that newbies would get taken in by you.

 

No one else starts a thread every time they want to post.

No one else keeps saying how wonderful they are with so little basis for it.

No one else starts threads with the same thing every time.

 

The last time we saw someone like that it was a Texan. The funny thing is that he Big Noted himself just like you (you are your number one fan). In the end someone tracked down who he was because his ex-wife was so annoyed that he couldn't pay his alimony. He was another Texan with no money living in a trailer park pretending to be a big trader.

 

So here is the thing. You're posts are exercises in grandiosity. Your posts are posted here and, totally out of context, on poker threads. There is no evidence that you are not the same Texan posting from his trailer park trying to be the big man - on the internet!!!

 

(Photoshopped images don't count Urma)

 

For all we know, you are that person. A new thread just to say "I was asked this question by and my answer is "aint I fantastic." Hasn't anyone told you that big noting on the internet isn't really where it is at? Or haven't you talked to any realworld people this week?

 

In fact you must be that texan in his trailer park. Glad to see you haven't committed suicide yet Urma.

[UrmaBlume 10]

Again Kiwi, thank you so much for again posting on topic and not getting personal.

 

The guy you write about is not me - I don't live in Texas and I have never lived in a trailor and I never photoshoped anything.

 

Having never posted any original technical material that you yourself created no wonder that you hack so hard against mine and no wonder that your posts are never on topic and always personal attacks.

 

All this negativity, all these completely wrong assumptions and this never ending petty little stalking and personal attacks plus talk of suicide - not only how shallow and petty your motivations, but really - how dark your internal dialogue must be.

 

Let a little light in, give it time and you will eventually conquer the green monstor.

 

 

UrmaBlume

[Kiwi 16]

Urma,

 

Its not your content; its just you.

 

You have displayed all the characteristics of MM's "outright egomania" and I don't like to see it polluting our excellent trading site. So why don't you stop irritating so many people:

- stop starting threads

- stop behaving like you're in a texan trailer park (big noting on the internet to make yourself feel good)

 

This is the internet. All the evidence still suggests that you could be delusional and living in that trailer park. Actually I still think you are.

 

The last thing I am is jealous of you - I actually feel sorry for you which is why, after a few posts I tend to leave you alone for a few weeks to continue your pathology.

 

Kiwi

 

 

 

 

PS. And its "trailer" and "shopped" Urma.

[UrmaBlume 10]

Urma,

 

Its not your content; its just you........ .

 

Rally have it bad huh?

 

Personally, I feel that the negative comments, name calling, condescension, and outright egomania are tasteless and poor form, and a definite indication of psychological instability.

 

Certainly we can all disagree with each other without the discoloration of the above. Much is learned through healthy debate. If nothing else, you obtain a clear understanding of the other's opinion.

 

If you need an ego boost, take your clothes off and look in the mirror.

[Kiwi 16]

LOL

 

The funniest thing Urma is that you don't see yourself in MightyMouse's post. I could see my contribution but I guess if you are not sane then the ability to see yourself correctly is damaged.

 

Urma, I have called you Pat in the past and I apologise for it because it contributes to your pathology. Clearly you are not Pat; you are Urma.

 

 

I will clarify one point from an earlier post of yours so that you don't need to make that mistake again. You suggest that I am a "stalker." That would imply that I'm following you around but I don't - you are free to post your self-aggrandizing rubbish on all the poker sites in all the world. You see, I was at Traders Laboratory first. Too me you are the interloper who damages a good forum by repeatedly starting threads to say how wonderful you think you are (and somehow think that will make other people think you are wonderful). You are like a paedophile in my village. I am the concerned parent; I simply want to drive you away.

 

So feel free to leave. I have used up my 10m for this week and the next few so I shall simply post a warning on each of your new threads for now.

 

I hope you get better one day Urma.

Good luck.

 

 

PS Its "Really."

PPS. No, its not stalking. It's like warning everyone when you can see a paedophile. Disgust is the emotion.

Edited August 21, 2010 by Kiwi
Enough posts in this thread. Last word goes to Urma.

[UrmaBlume 10]

........ I have used up my 10m for this week and the next few so I shall simply post a warning on each of your new threads for now.

 

So, no matter the content you post to each of my threads and that's not stalking?

 

This love/hate thing with Urma really has you going. Just let it run its course and someday you will find someone to obsess over even more than you obsess over Urma.

[brownsfan019 17]

So, no matter the content you post to each of my threads and that's not stalking?

 

This love/hate thing with Urma really has you going. Just let it run its course and someday you will find someone to obsess over even more than you obsess over Urma.

 

Kind of like Tresor does with me.

 

Kind of like Tams does with me.

 

Kind of like Urma does with me.

 

Sometimes the best advice is to take your own Pat.

 

[Kiwi 16]

Funnily enough Tams seems to have started with me. Its like he's Urma's girl or something - weird given that he seems to offer value to people interested in MultiCharts. I guess he's going for the Thanks that Urma gives him every time he posts anything that slightly agrees with Urmy.

 

The funniest thing with Tams is that he doesn't see himself as argumentative. Self-deception is a wonderful thing.

 

Here's a deal Urma. Stop generating new threads (the sign of a vendor or a slightly mad attention seeker) and I'll leave you alone. Keep generating threads, especially the value free, aint I wonderful type like this one, or the stupid photoshops that repeat the same rubbish (again, aint I wonderful), and I'll take that as an invitation to let the readers know what you are; ok?

 

 

 

PS. He isn't Pat, brownsfan; he would just like to be Pat.

[Tams 20]

... the next few so I shall simply post a warning on each of your new threads for now....

 

...Stop generating new threads (the sign of a vendor or a slightly mad attention seeker) and I'll leave you alone. Keep generating threads, especially the value free, aint I wonderful type like this one, or the stupid photoshops that repeat the same rubbish (again, aint I wonderful), and I'll take that as an invitation to let the readers know what you are; ok?

....

 

Trader28... you have to choose your words more carefully. It is no fun when you give your ID away; people have no choice but to put you on ignore... and the party comes to an end. :-(

Edited August 24, 2010 by Tams

[Kiwi 16]

Tams,

 

Your tag line defines you "...as expected, by a delusional comedian..." Thanks for yet another laugh.

 

Why don't you get drunk now and threaten to shoot me?

 

.

[ALexLutiera 10]

Thanks for the information. I know time and performance really matters in financial activities, too. Every single event matters. We could rely to the time and performance to see if our work or investments would be appropriate. Why are some investors waste their time, what do you think??

[Oliver90 10]

Order flow is order flow and always has been. The movment of price is and always has been based on the degree to which order flow is unbalanced. So with regard to order flow nothing has changed except that now, with new technologies, order flow can be more precisely measured and used in ever shorter time frames.

----------------------------------------------------------------

[boomerangas 10]

I've been on TL long time ago, just when i was in Uni. Currently, i work in London City in one of the investment banks and i have a lot of connections in financial community. So i'd like to mention, dear Urma, that NOBODY who is successful in this business doesn't advertise himself on TL and just satisfying his EGO for years. If you are successful ( like you are ) - you are too busy posting bullshit here on TL, instead you are trading, driving expensive cars, drinking fine cognacs in a Michelin-starred restaurants. I know nobody posting bullshit like you, but these people earning 10+ mil. annually, so i think you are earning even more so you have plenty of free time? So i'd suggest to do same for you, Urma, way you should be too successful and too busy to post in this "kiddies" board and to spend your valuable time.

p.s. don't trust any scam artists around - go for investment banking studies, try to get junior analyst job somewhere in Manhattan or London City, at least you will be paid on monthly basis and will see how things are really going here.

[MightyMouse 12]

I've been on TL long time ago, just when i was in Uni. Currently, i work in London City in one of the investment banks and i have a lot of connections in financial community. So i'd like to mention, dear Urma, that NOBODY who is successful in this business doesn't advertise himself on TL and just satisfying his EGO for years. If you are successful ( like you are ) - you are too busy posting bullshit here on TL, instead you are trading, driving expensive cars, drinking fine cognacs in a Michelin-starred restaurants. I know nobody posting bullshit like you, but these people earning 10+ mil. annually, so i think you are earning even more so you have plenty of free time? So i'd suggest to do same for you, Urma, way you should be too successful and too busy to post in this "kiddies" board and to spend your valuable time.

p.s. don't trust any scam artists around - go for investment banking studies, try to get junior analyst job somewhere in Manhattan or London City, at least you will be paid on monthly basis and will see how things are really going here.

 

It is a lot easier to trade, engaging in moral hazard, when you are certain you will be bailed out by tax payers. Your statement " don't trust any scam artists around - go for investment banking studies," is irony at its best. The bulk of the traders who work for the firms you speak of can't trade worth a shit and get paid for reasons that they will not be able to explain, but certainly feel entitled to it.

[boomerangas 10]

You are not sure what you are talking about at all, MightyMouse. In all the private hedge funds you'll be fired the very next day if'll not be trading by a system rules or you'll make an even 3% unexpected loss for the managed portfolio.