Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

HighStakes

Actively Day Trading One Single Market VS Day Trading a Handful of Markets?

Recommended Posts

Thales, do you realize that this board has been overrun by people like SDG and Urma. The funny thing is that there are a few real self-managed traders here but between the grandiose and the disaffected losers the board has become rather disappointing.

 

If you think of somewhere better let me know.

 

you sound disappointed, even bitter, about something that bothers you deeply.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I couldn't agree more. The ES is a very difficult market to trade and unless you are pushing 100 ct's at a time, why force it on a market that is so hard to trade?

 

I will say that I've seen a shift in forums recently where there is more discussion on markets other than the ES; whereas at one point you'd only find discussions on the ES.

 

People at the mean are just dumb and lazy...The older I get the harder it becomes to see things otherwise...

Even though I think candlestick stuff is ancient nonsense I respect you Browns as a sick price action and order flow trader who uses candles to filter out bad trades...

What do you consider to be the best instrument to trade?

I just quit my coffee monkey job on Citi's EUR/USD FX option desk and feel like a kid in a candy store being able to trade more than fucking slow long term SPY positions because of compliance...

I'm all about N225 right now..just the right amount of arb and nice tick size...with a nice old school lunch break for douchebags.

Being around EUR/USD for awhile the EUR/S&P arbs are the masters of the universe...zero interest in ever being on the other side of their trade. No idea what they are doing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Trading like anything can be taught, its just that some people will be ok at it which usually means break even after commissions, some will make a reasonable living, and a very small few will really succeed.

As has been mentioned that you need to fit your personality and style, I am sure that not every market or style suits someone, and hence there will always be some wrong turns in the journey.

There are always too many preconceived notions that first need to be eliminated as has been pointed out. There are plenty of trained lawyers out there who are not practicing law and I reckon a few of them found out that its largely a pencil pushing job rather than the high flying court room dramas they initially believe.

(Electronic local - I have loosely followed your blog, and one great point you make is about consistent profitability for day trading....lots of people miss this in many teachings. I also think that stops should not really be called "stop losses" but 'stop account crippling drawdowns" or "stop blowups".)

 

I always wondered about the 95% statistic....where does it come from?

At a guess I think that if its based on closed accounts, then there must be a lot of traders in there who either;

1, are undercapitalised, and hence close an account

2, get bored, loose interest, become too frustrated to continue

3, close a few accounts, and yet ultimately become profitable with one account

4, dont like their broker and hence close an account.

5, change their trading styles over time and either it does not work or they disappear through boredom.

 

Interesting observations you have there. Who wins?

 

Also, I did some light web research into the mythical Johnson report and I admire your conclusions as they are pretty much what I uncovered.

 

In the land of the blind, the man with one eye is king.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
People at the mean are just dumb and lazy...The older I get the harder it becomes to see things otherwise...

Even though I think candlestick stuff is ancient nonsense I respect you Browns as a sick price action and order flow trader who uses candles to filter out bad trades...

What do you consider to be the best instrument to trade?

I just quit my coffee monkey job on Citi's EUR/USD FX option desk and feel like a kid in a candy store being able to trade more than fucking slow long term SPY positions because of compliance...

I'm all about N225 right now..just the right amount of arb and nice tick size...with a nice old school lunch break for douchebags.

Being around EUR/USD for awhile the EUR/S&P arbs are the masters of the universe...zero interest in ever being on the other side of their trade. No idea what they are doing.

 

100% of my trading is in oil currently.

 

Reason is that it's providing movements that just work for me and I can shut it down by 12pm EST and do more than stare at charts.

 

As for candles, I've said it before - they are a part of a plan and as time goes on, they become less important to me.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Thales, do you realize that this board has been overrun by people like SDG and Urma. The funny thing is that there are a few real self-managed traders here but between the grandiose and the disaffected losers the board has become rather disappointing.

 

If you think of somewhere better let me know.

 

Funny enough, I've been actively pondering a solution to that very situation myself. I've even considered going off to some obscure corner of the 'net and blogging. I assume the cranks would let me be, and if not, I could "moderate" their comments, as I cannot abide either meanness or vulgarity.

 

Likewise, Kiwi, is you find somewhere better, let me know as well.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

If you guys take off, please drop me a PM where I can find you so we can continue to have discussions that are not taken off track by a couple. Only takes 1 or 2 to ruin a board quickly.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
If you guys take off, please drop me a PM where I can find you so we can continue to have discussions that are not taken off track by a couple. Only takes 1 or 2 to ruin a board quickly.

 

I am curious. What is it that ruins a board in your opinion?

 

Is it that some might offer a different opinion than the status quo?

 

Isn't a forum for open discussions?

 

Is an unruined board one that we all applaud at how great the Emperor looks as he walks by naked?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I am curious. What is it that ruins a board in your opinion?

...Isn't a forum for open discussions?

 

I'm not Brownie, but in my opinion, what goes a long way toward ruining a board is noted in the following post from me:

 

What is disappointing is that ... vulgarity and ... mean-spiritedness are now tolerated here at TL.

 

Certainly a forum is for open discussion, MM. But re-read JDSG's posts, and then make the case here that his posts are meant to foster open discussion rather than to cut such discussion off and be the last word on the subject.

 

There have been a number of times in various threads here at TL where you have taken essentially the same position as JDSG as to what is and is not possible with respect to trading profits. The difference has been that in those cases, a true back and forth discusion or debate was able to ensue. JDSG's approach is to curse, beat his chest, and use ad hominem arguments to try and shut the other side up.

 

Mean spiritedness, vulgarity, close-mindedness, and board-bullying - if just one participant exhibits just one of those traits, that alone is enough to turn folks off from a forum, wouldn't you agree? And in this thread alone we have two examples, JDSG being one, and UB's constant stalking of Brownie being the other. I have no objections to Urmablume's technical posts, though I do think his constant attacks on Brownie should be halted, preferably by a voluntary cease-fire on his part, and if that is not forthcoming, then he should be banned, as his type of assaults do nothing but cheapen the forum overall.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Edited by thalestrader
spelling

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I'm not Brownie, but in my opinion, what goes a long way toward ruining a board is noted in the following post from me:

 

 

 

Certainly a forum is for open discussion, MM. But re-read JDSG's posts, and then make the case here that his posts are meant to foster open discussion rather than to cut such discussion off and be the last word on the subject.

 

There have been a number of times in various threads here at TL where you have taken essentially the same position as JDSG as to what is and is not possible with respect to trading profits. The difference has been that in those cases, a true back and forth discusion or debate was able to ensue. JDSG's approach is to curse, beat his chest, and use ad hominem arguments to try and shut the other side up.

 

Mean spiritedness, vulgarity, close-mindedness, and board-bullying - if just one participant exhibits just one of those traits, that alone is enough to turn folks off from a forum, wouldn't you agree? And in this thread alone we have two examples, JDSG being one, and UB's constant stalking of Brownie being the other. I have no objections to Urmablume's technical posts, though I do think his constant attacks on Brownie should be halted, preferably by a voluntary cease-fire on his part, and if that is not forthcoming, then he should be banned, as his type of assaults do nothing but cheapen the forum overall.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

I could not agree more.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I apologize for my vulgarity. I would like to point out a few things about my trading beliefs that may clarify anything I said.

 

1. I trade options. I don't trade contracts. Its my style and it works. If anyone is to be successful they need to find their own style - even if others make more doing something different.

 

2. I know that there are other successful traders - futures, stocks, etc.

 

3. 10% per week is not realistic on a CONSISTANT basis. Sure you can make big scores here and there but that kind of return is pie in the sky. My anger started when people started speaking with qualitative certainty about quantitative fantasy.

 

4. Most people cannot make money trading. We all know the 95% stat and its not going to change. And, they don't always lose because they don't have the right knowledge or tools, they lose because they are not cut out for it. You need a certain attitude and mindset.

 

5. The idea of trading is to make a rate of return. Again, a realistic one. If you want to trade full time, for your sole source of income, you need to have an account large enough for the return to equal a comfortable wage.

 

6. Scalping the ES or ER is extremely difficult and you chance of success is slim to none and slim has a plane ticket in his hand.

 

7. Commissions are a real cost and need to be considered along with slippage, bad fills, etc. (another reason for #6.)

 

Johnny

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
...I would like to point out a few things about my trading beliefs that may clarify anything I said.

 

1. I trade options. I don't trade contracts. Its my style and it works. If anyone is to be successful they need to find their own style - even if others make more doing something different.

 

I agee.

 

2. I know that there are other successful traders - futures, stocks, etc

 

There sure are! And plenty of failures too!

 

3. 10% per week is not realistic on a CONSISTENT basis. Sure you can make big scores here and there but that kind of return is pie in the sky. My anger started when people started speaking with qualitative certainty about quantitative fantasy.

 

If you were to re-conceive the 10% as units of risk, where a unit of risk is equal to a % of equity, you then be able to see where many would find your "qualitative" vs. "quantitative" distinction a chimera. If instead of 10%, one were to say 5R, whereby an "R"-multiple was equal to the amount risked/trade, and then, if one were to trade an edge whereby average winning trade was 2R (i.e. 2*initial $risk), and the average loss was 1/2R, and if the average winning percentage was 33% of all trades, and if one's chosen market(s) and time frame yielded an average of 16 trades/week, then 5R/week on average is certainly possible. Is it easy? No. Will most fail? Yes. So what? I'm not here to protect the masses from themselves. Will one still have losing days? Absolutely! Losing weeks? Most certainly! Losing months? Such would be likely ony if one suffers a breakdown of the discipline that brought them to their market, timeframe, and approach/system/method.

 

4. Most people cannot make money trading. We all know the 95% stat and its not going to change. And, they don't always lose because they don't have the right knowledge or tools, they lose because they are not cut out for it. You need a certain attitude and mindset.

 

Anyone who has read my posts here at TL knows that I would generally agree. While the "95% failure" statistic that so many are quick to "cite" (I've yet to see the "citation") is probably high. I would guess that in actuality at least 20% of market participants are long term net profitable. I do not mean that 20% are turning out huge profits on a regular basis, but look at it this way - my grandmother died with a seven figure portfolio that had, as near as we've been able to determine, a low five figure cost basis. If she could do it, so can a lot of folks!

 

5. The idea of trading is to make a rate of return. Again, a realistic one. If you want to trade full time, for your sole source of income, you need to have an account large enough for the return to equal a comfortable wage.

 

No, no, no ... Your idea of trading is to make a "rate of return". My idea of trading has been best characterized by Leonardo as trading for infinite yield. The end of such an account (as in its goal or purpose) is not to seek an income, but to generate a substantial profit. I would here again refer you to the chapter of Gerald Loeb's book, The Battle for Investment Survival entitled "Speculation vs. Investment." I would also recommend you continue to the following chapter entitled "Sound Accounting for Investors." I would agree with Loeb's sentiment in that "I don't believe that any acount can be run properly if income is a prime requisite." This is not to say that such an account cannot be run, for a time at least, and perhaps an extended time, profitably. However, it will not be run as well or as properly if it is seeking what you call "a reasonable rate of return" rather than seeking, for example, to double itself within a short period of time (Loeb suggests a year). I would suggest you actually read those chapters before you dismiss the proposed goal as unsound).

 

6. Scalping the ES or ER is extremely difficult and you chance of success is slim to none and slim has a plane ticket in his hand.

 

7. Commissions are a real cost and need to be considered along with slippage, bad fills, etc. (another reason for #6.)

 

All trading is extremely difficult if done without an intelligent plan. The effect of slippage, bad fills, and commissions on an account traded according to an intelligent plan and seeking infinite yield will be negligible.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I agee.

 

 

 

There sure are! And plenty of failures too!

 

 

 

If you were to re-conceive the 10% as units of risk, where a unit of risk is equal to a % of equity, you then be able to see where many would find your "qualitative" vs. "quantitative" distinction a chimera. If instead of 10%, one were to say 5R, whereby an "R"-multiple was equal to the amount risked/trade, and then, if one were to trade an edge whereby average winning trade was 2R (i.e. 2*initial $risk), and the average loss was 1/2R, and if the average winning percentage was 33% of all trades, and if one's chosen market(s) and time frame yielded an average of 16 trades/week, then 5R/week on average is certainly possible. Is it easy? No. Will most fail? Yes. So what? I'm not here to protect the masses from themselves. Will one still have losing days? Absolutely! Losing weeks? Most certainly! Losing months? Such would be likely ony if one suffers a breakdown of the discipline that brought them to their market, timeframe, and approach/system/method.

 

 

 

Anyone who has read my posts here at TL knows that I would generally agree. While the "95% failure" statistic that so many are quick to "cite" (I've yet to see the "citation") is probably high. I would guess that in actuality at least 20% of market participants are long term net profitable. I do not mean that 20% are turning out huge profits on a regular basis, but look at it this way - my grandmother died with a seven figure portfolio that had, as near as we've been able to determine, a low five figure cost basis. If she could do it, so can a lot of folks!

 

 

 

No, no, no ... Your idea of trading is to make a "rate of return". My idea of trading has been best characterized by Leonardo as trading for infinite yield. The end of such an account (as in its goal or purpose) is not to seek an income, but to generate a substantial profit. I would here again refer you to the chapter of Gerald Loeb's book, The Battle for Investment Survival entitled "Speculation vs. Investment." I would also recommend you continue to the following chapter entitled "Sound Accounting for Investors." I would agree with Loeb's sentiment in that "I don't believe that any acount can be run properly if income is a prime requisite." This is not to say that such an account cannot be run, for a time at least, and perhaps an extended time, profitably. However, it will not be run as well or as properly if it is seeking what you call "a reasonable rate of return" rather than seeking, for example, to double itself within a short period of time (Loeb suggests a year). I would suggest you actually read those chapters before you dismiss the proposed goal as unsound).

 

 

 

All trading is extremely difficult if done without an intelligent plan. The effect of slippage, bad fills, and commissions on an account traded according to an intelligent plan and seeking infinite yield will be negligible.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Thales,

 

Are you really doing this or are you simply countering the slow and steady approach to trading with the theoretical testosterone version?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I am curious. What is it that ruins a board in your opinion?

 

Is it that some might offer a different opinion than the status quo?

 

Isn't a forum for open discussions?

 

Is an unruined board one that we all applaud at how great the Emperor looks as he walks by naked?

 

MM - Easier to just let thales explain as he is much more eloquent with words than I....

 

I'm not Brownie, but in my opinion, what goes a long way toward ruining a board is noted in the following post from me:

 

 

 

Certainly a forum is for open discussion, MM. But re-read JDSG's posts, and then make the case here that his posts are meant to foster open discussion rather than to cut such discussion off and be the last word on the subject.

 

There have been a number of times in various threads here at TL where you have taken essentially the same position as JDSG as to what is and is not possible with respect to trading profits. The difference has been that in those cases, a true back and forth discusion or debate was able to ensue. JDSG's approach is to curse, beat his chest, and use ad hominem arguments to try and shut the other side up.

 

Mean spiritedness, vulgarity, close-mindedness, and board-bullying - if just one participant exhibits just one of those traits, that alone is enough to turn folks off from a forum, wouldn't you agree? And in this thread alone we have two examples, JDSG being one, and UB's constant stalking of Brownie being the other. I have no objections to Urmablume's technical posts, though I do think his constant attacks on Brownie should be halted, preferably by a voluntary cease-fire on his part, and if that is not forthcoming, then he should be banned, as his type of assaults do nothing but cheapen the forum overall.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

What is ironic is that Pat was banned from ET, but allowed to persist here. Think about what it takes to get banned from ET... ;)

 

With that said, I think a blog makes a ton of sense for you Thales - you can moderate the vulgarity out and if it gets popular you can monetize it for yourself.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
.......All trading is extremely difficult if done without an intelligent plan. The effect of slippage, bad fills, and commissions on an account traded according to an intelligent plan and seeking infinite yield will be negligible.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Trading is difficult even IF done with an intelligent plan because most people don't have the personality to execute properly.

 

Your theory of trading for an infinite yield is a great way to take math out of the equation. How can you manage slippage, commission, etc when you have no target yield to speak of?

 

I'm not saying that a target yield is a limit, but you need realistic goals and expectations.

 

Johnny

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Your theory of trading for an infinite yield is a great way to take math out of the equation.

 

IMHO, the "math" you keep speaking of is minor details...any monkey can run the numbers...come up with hypothetical examples/scenarios for this and that with Excel...

 

How can you manage slippage, commission, etc when you have no target yield to speak of?

 

How does having a specific target yield in any way affect slippage, commission, etc.? :confused:

 

I'm not saying that a target yield is a limit

 

Then why have it? What purpose does it serve other than as a potential limit (whether intentional or not)?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
IMHO, the "math" you keep speaking of is minor details...any monkey can run the numbers...come up with hypothetical examples/scenarios for this and that with Excel...

 

 

 

How does having a specific target yield in any way affect slippage, commission, etc.? :confused:

 

 

 

Then why have it? What purpose does it serve other than as a potential limit (whether intentional or not)?

 

Any monkey can run the numbers but the numbers have to have a basis in fact.

A target yield affects those items because you need to know your break even point. Business 101

 

There is never a limit, but of course there are realistic expectations.

 

Trading, speculating, investing, whatever you want to call it is based upon probability. The idea being to have a positive expectancy. Positive expectancy time frequency of opportunity is the yield. You need to realistic about PE and frequency of opportunity.

 

Johnny

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Any monkey can run the numbers but the numbers have to have a basis in fact.

A target yield affects those items because you need to know your break even point. Business 101

 

There is never a limit, but of course there are realistic expectations.

 

Trading, speculating, investing, whatever you want to call it is based upon probability. The idea being to have a positive expectancy. Positive expectancy time frequency of opportunity is the yield. You need to realistic about PE and frequency of opportunity.

 

Johnny

 

Business 101 would probably be way over my head, because I'm still not convinced. :roll eyes:

 

What's "fact," what's "realistic," what's "possible," etc. is (normally) all relative. This conversation could go on forever, which is why I'm decidedly "tapping out." What's true for one person may not be true for another...however, often the attitude is "if it's true for me, then it's true for everyone...and I must convince everyone that my truth should in fact be their truth...and if I have a hard time at it, I will get angry/emotional..." The only real wisdom is knowing you know nothing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Business 101 would probably be way over my head, because I'm still not convinced. :roll eyes:

 

What's "fact," what's "realistic," what's "possible," etc. is (normally) all relative. This conversation could go on forever, which is why I'm decidedly "tapping out." What's true for one person may not be true for another...however, often the attitude is "if it's true for me, then it's true for everyone...and I must convince everyone that my truth should in fact be their truth...and if I have a hard time at it, I will get angry/emotional..." The only real wisdom is knowing you know nothing.

 

Most people lose - that is an undisputed truth. So are the stats showing that trading ER & ES with extreme daytrading margins is not going to work.

 

The casino knows the "Truth" that the odds are people will lose at the tables. Yet, there are still people that go there seeking infinite yield!

 

Johnny

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Johnny,

 

There is a reason that even your Mother doesn't like you.

 

You clearly don't understand the infinite yield reference and you assume that the good folk here are ignorant of the basic stuff you think you are slapping people around with. Ignorance and Arrogance is a bad combination really. At least you are not adding grandiosity to the equation.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
actually I live in Mentor OH.

And you were also BARRED from the US Securities industry by FINRA too... :rofl:

Edited by macdfx
The FINRA report uses the word "BARRED" not "BANNED"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Johnny,

 

There is a reason that even your Mother doesn't like you.

 

You clearly don't understand the infinite yield reference and you assume that the good folk here are ignorant of the basic stuff you think you are slapping people around with. Ignorance and Arrogance is a bad combination really. At least you are not adding grandiosity to the equation.

 

I understand it. I just think its BS.

 

Johnny

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Any monkey can run the numbers but the numbers have to have a basis in fact.

 

But one should be able to say that "based on these facts, these are my conclusions," whereas you seem to be saying "these are the conclusions on which I base my facts."

 

A target yield affects those items because you need to know your break even point. Business 101

 

In addition to trading, I run a real, bricks and mortar, trucks and equipment, doing trade belly to belly business. I do not manage my business for a "rate of return." I run it for maximum profitability. I do not know one business owner who manages his or her business in the manner you suggest as "Business 101." Sure, we each know our cost of doing business, costs of goods sold, our "breakeven points," etc. and so on. But that affects my pricing (i.e. what I charge my customers) and gross margins, and has nothing to do with a target annual rate of return or return on equity. The goal for me is always to maximize those numbers, not to be bound by them. I trade the same way. And truthfully, other than bucket shop trades, slippage and commissions have been of little impact on my trading. In fact, I wish I could get the gross margins in my business that I get from trading.

 

Unless you are willing to read and study those who think differently than you, you will never really be able to decide whether you are right or wrong in your current worldview. You may think you have chosen, but you really haven't, because you feel the "choice is between you view and wild-eyed cowboy rodeo clown trading, rather than a choice between trading for an income versus trading for speculative gain and maximum profit. You have not even allowed yourself truly to grasp the outlines of the view I propose.

 

I have been urging both you and MM to open your minds to another way of approaching the problem of making it (and what "making it") in trading means. You both seem to infer from what I have posted here and elsewhere at TL that I set an unreasonably high bar, or that I imply that this trading activity is easier than it is. I have several times suggested that a better place to explore the view that I espouse is Gerald Loeb's The Battle for Investment Survival. Loeb, far better than I, makes the case that your view actually sets one up for failure, or at least unsatisfactory results. I agree with nearly everything he says in his excellent book, including his opening statement:

 

"Nothing is more difficult , I truly believe, than consistently and fairly profiting in Wall Street. I know of nothing harder to learn."

 

Amen, brother, and I think that both you and MM would agree with Loeb's sentiment. But I, following Loeb, use that as my starting point, whereas you and MM and others who share your view of the limits of possible success take that as your end.

 

Loeb continues: "Any way one looks at it, nothing is more difficult than succeeding in Wall Street, yet nothing is attempted by such poorly equipped people or is considered as easy." I am sure that both you and MM would agree. So do I. But you view the difficulty as an inherent and insurmountable limit, whereas I, following Loeb view it not only as an obstacle that can be overcome, but as one which must be overcome if one's market operations are to be at all worth the effort and risk. Loeb continues, perhaps reading your mind, and asks that "This being the case, what can we do about it? What is the bright side, if such a gloomy picture has a bright side? What are the virtues of Wall Street? Is the subject worth studying at all?"

 

You seem to have recognized the difficulty and the questions, but your response is a rather gloomy judgement that "the best one can hope for is to make a "reasonable return on investment on an annulaize basis, and by reasonable I mean 10-30% tops." Loeb's answer (to which I wholeheartedly subscribe, is that such a goal as you formulate it ultimately must fail, because either your eventual (and certain) losses will consume much of your profit, or you will have earned an amount insufficient to both preserve your capital's current spending power as well as increasing it for future use.

 

You can keep reiterating you opinions concerning the limits of trading success, but until you are at least willing to learn and understand the counter position, we will simply be speaking at one another, rather than with one another. Again, Gerald Loeb's work is an inexpensive way to introduce oneself to what he calls the necessary "speculative attitude," an attitude that I prescribe, and which you proscribe.

 

Johnny...You clearly don't understand the infinite yield reference and you assume that the good folk here are ignorant of the basic stuff you think you are slapping people around with.

 

I understand it. I just think its BS.

 

No, you do not. The below statement shows how little clarity you possess concerning the issue at hand:

 

Trading, speculating, investing, whatever you want to call it ...

 

Trading is a general term that whereby one thing of value is exchanged for another thing of value. Trade is, to put it in terms you would understand, "Economics 101." Again, following Loeb, I suggest that one understand that "Investing" and "speculating," while each a form of "trade" or "trading", differ from one another fundamentally, as folows (again, quoting directly from Loeb):

 

Investment is fundamentally an effort to obtain, in addition, a rental from others for the temporary use of capital.

 

Speculation means using capital in such a manner that its spening power is not only preserved but also increased, through the realization of profits in the form of dividends, capital gains, or both.

 

You, as do 95% of those who try this game, conflate Trading, Investment, and Speculation - but you cannot grasp what it means to "trade for infinite yield," much less see its fundamental soundness as an approach, if you do not understand the difference between investment and speculation as set out above.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Thales,

 

Are you really doing this or are you simply countering the slow and steady approach to trading with the theoretical testosterone version?

 

You are confusing what you call the "theoretical testosterone version," or what I have call "crazy rodeo clown cowboy" trading, with what I will here refer to as either "the speculative attitude" or "trading for infinite yield." I am not the only one here at TL, MM, who has advised you that you yourself are limiting that of which you yourself are capable. I know that Blowfish has suggested this to you, though I canot find the post. Interestingly, I did come across this post from BF -

 

I cant help wondering if it is difficult to learn things because of limiting beliefs. I am looking forward to reading the Carol Dwek book... From what I understand her main premise is that fixed mindsets (akin to limiting beliefs I guess) is what holds us back and that ...err...I think she calls them 'growth mindsets' allow great things. Forgive me I haven't read it yet.

 

I don't buy the "growth mindset" stuff. I do believe that the "fixed mindset" concept is a useful term (though prejudice, close-mindedness, unquestioning belief" do just as well if not better than the new-fangled phrase. The point is the same in any case - if you think you already know the answers, you'll start ridiculing those who keep asking the questions, even when there continued questioning takes them beyond what your answers tell you is possible.

 

You can do it, MM, but only if you let yourself.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date: 11th July 2025.   Demand For Gold Rises As Trump Announces Tariffs!   Gold prices rose significantly throughout the week as investors took advantage of the 2.50% lower entry level. Investors also return to the safe-haven asset as the US trade policy continues to escalate. As a result, investors are taking a more dovish tone. The ‘risk-off’ appetite is also something which can be seen within the stock market. The NASDAQ on Thursday took a 0.90% dive within only 30 minutes.   Trade Tensions Escalate President Trump has been teasing with new tariffs throughout the week. However, the tariffs were confirmed on Thursday. A 35% tariff on Canadian imports starting August 1st, along with 50% tariffs on copper and goods from Brazil. Some experts are advising that Brazil has been specifically targeted due to its association with the BRICS.   However, the President has not directly associated the tariffs with BRICS yet. According to President Trump, Brazil is targeting US technology companies and carrying out a ‘witch hunt’against former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, a close ally who is currently facing prosecution for allegedly attempting to overturn the 2022 Brazilian election.   Although Brazil is one of the largest and fastest-growing economies in the Americas, it is not the main concern for investors. Investors are more concerned about Tariffs on Canada. The White House said it will impose a 35% tariff on Canadian imports, effective August 1st, raised from the earlier 25% rate. This covers most goods, with exceptions under USMCA and exemptions for Canadian companies producing within the US.   It is also vital for investors to note that Canada is among the US;’s top 3 trading partners. The increase was justified by Trump citing issues like the trade deficit, Canada’s handling of fentanyl trafficking, and perceived unfair trade practices.   The President is also threatening new measures against the EU. These moves caused US and European stock futures to fall nearly 1%, while the Dollar rose and commodity prices saw small gains. However, the main benefactor was Silver and Gold, which are the two best-performing metals of the day.   How Will The Fed Impact Gold? The FOMC indicated that the number of members warming up to the idea of interest rate cuts is increasing. If the Fed takes a dovish tone, the price of Gold may further rise. In the meantime, the President pushing for a 3% rate cut sparked talk of a more dovish Fed nominee next year and raised worries about future inflation.   Meanwhile, jobless claims dropped for the fourth straight week, coming in better than expected and supporting the view that the labour market remains strong after last week’s solid payroll report. Markets still expect two rate cuts this year, but rate futures show most investors see no change at the next Fed meeting. Gold is expected to finish the week mostly flat.       Gold 15-Minute Chart     If the price of Gold increases above $3,337.50, buy signals are likely to materialise again. However, the price is currently retracing, meaning traders are likely to wait for regained momentum before entering further buy trades. According to HSBC, they expect an average price of $3,215 in 2025 (up from $3,015) and $3,125 in 2026, with projections showing a volatile range between $3,100 and $3,600   Key Takeaway Points: Gold Rises on Safe-Haven Demand. Gold gained as investors reacted to rising trade tensions and market volatility. Canada Tariffs Spark Concern. A 35% tariff on Canadian imports drew attention due to Canada’s key trade role. Fed Dovish Shift Supports Gold. Growing expectations of rate cuts and Trump’s push for a 3% cut boosted the gold outlook. Gold Eyes Breakout Above $3,337.5. Price is consolidating; a move above $3,337.50 could trigger new buy signals. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Back in the early 2000s, Netflix mailed DVDs to subscribers.   It wasn’t sexy—but it was smart. No late fees. No driving to Blockbuster.   People subscribed because they were lazy. Investors bought the stock because they realized everyone else is lazy too.   Those who saw the future in that red envelope? They could’ve caught a 10,000%+ move.   Another story…   Back in the mid-2000s, Amazon launched Prime.   It wasn’t flashy—but it was fast.   Free two-day shipping. No minimums. No hassle.   People subscribed because they were impatient. Investors bought the stock because they realized everyone hates waiting.   Those who saw the future in that speedy little yellow button? They could’ve caught another 10,000%+ move.   Finally…   Back in 2011, Bitcoin was trading under $10.   It wasn’t regulated—but it worked.   No bank. No middleman. Just wallet to wallet.   People used it to send money. Investors bought it because they saw the potential.   Those who saw something glimmering in that strange orange coin? They could’ve caught a 100,000%+ move.   The people who made those calls weren’t fortune tellers. They just noticed something simple before others did.   A better way. A quiet shift. A small edge. An asymmetric bet.   The red envelope fixed late fees. The yellow button fixed waiting. The orange coin gave billions a choice.   Of course, these types of gains are rare. And they happen only once in a blue moon. That’s exactly why it’s important to notice when the conditions start to look familiar.   Not after the move. Not once it's on CNBC. But in the quiet build-up— before the surface breaks.   Enter the Blue Button Please read more here: https://altucherconfidential.com/posts/netflix-amazon-bitcoin-blue  Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/ 
    • What These Attacks Look Like There are several ways you could get hacked. And the threats compound by the day.   Here’s a quick rundown:   Phishing: Fake emails from your “bank.” Click the link, give your password—game over.   Ransomware: Malware that locks your files and demands crypto. Pay up, or it’s gone.   DDoS: Overwhelm a website with traffic until it crashes. Like 10,000 bots blocking the door. Often used by nations.   Man-in-the-Middle: Hackers intercept your messages on public WiFi and read or change them.   Social Engineering: Hackers pose as IT or drop infected USB drives labeled “Payroll.”   You don’t need to be “important” to be a target.   You just need to be online.   What You Can Do (Without Buying a Bunker) You don’t have to be tech-savvy.   You just need to stop being low-hanging fruit.   Here’s how:   Use a YubiKey (physical passkey device) or Authenticator app – Ditch text message 2FA. SIM swaps are real. Hackers often have people on the inside at telecom companies.   Use a password manager (with Yubikey) – One unique password per account. Stop using your dog’s name.   Update your devices – Those annoying updates patch real security holes. Use them.   Back up your files – If ransomware hits, you don’t want your important documents held hostage.   Avoid public WiFi for sensitive stuff – Or use a VPN.   Think before you click – Emails that feel “urgent” are often fake. Go to the websites manually for confirmation.   Consider Starlink in case the internet goes down – I think it’s time for me to make the leap. Don’t Panic. Prepare. (Then Invest.)   I spent an hour in that basement bar reading about cyberattacks—and watching real-world systems fall apart like dominos.   The internet going down used to be an inconvenience. Now, it’s a warning.   Cyberwar isn’t coming. It’s here.   And the next time your internet goes out, it might not just be your router.   Don’t panic. Prepare.   And maybe keep a backup plan in your back pocket. Like a local basement bar with good bourbon—and working WiFi.   As usual, we’re on the lookout for more opportunities in cybersecurity. Stay tuned.   Author: Chris Campbell (AltucherConfidential) Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/   
    • DUMBSHELL:  re the automation of corruption ---  200,000 "Science Papers" in academic journal database PubMed may have been AI-generated with errors, hallucinations and false sourcing 
    • Does any crypto exchanges get banned in your country? How's about other as Bybit, Kraken, MEXC, OKX?
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.