Higher Lows Lower Highs

[Snow Dog 10]

Mrs V was very distracted today with the fridge repair guys in and out a few times. Was away from the computer for the exit at RN but got +21.

 

Bias for GU was down, lots of upper wicks on 1hr, 15 min lh little/no lower wick.

[Snow Dog 10]

Recap 25 Feb

25 Feb

 

EUR - View was: D closed a doji, in itself not a strong signal. 4hr still clinging to the lower high lower low flow, divergence is showing and RSI has crossed above its signal line. Until flow properly moves higher bias down.

 

The 4hr that was still open at the time of posting did close as a higher low to change flow, moving up from the Sep '12 high/W M2 support. Price moved up to the Dec high/W M3 resistance level and fell after 2 x 1hr hammers.

 

GU - View was: GBP was down graded late Friday night, it remains to be seen whether this bad news will follow through. Had a gap down which is likely to be closed, so a possible move up to 1.5160 area. Still no reason to believe its anything other than a rally in downtrend. Bias down.

 

Attempt to move lower failed and gave a 4hr higher low in US session.

 

EJ - View was: Rejected another attempt to go below 123.00. D closed an inside bar, still just on a lower high lower low. 4hr had a higher low positive close hammer. The gap up will need to be closed suggesting a move down to 123.20 area.

 

Looking for a move lower to close the gap there were 2 x 1 hr shooting stars at W R1. It closed the gap and then just carried on falling over 600 pips.

[Snow Dog 10]

26 Feb

 

EUR - Engulfing D neg close. 4hr and 1hr flow down, both showing divergence. Whilst there can be a reaction up after the over sized negative close bias down until flow confirms otherwise.

 

GU - Positive D close still below 8lwma, no trend line breaks. Flow on 4hr higher low and 1hr is on higher high higher low. This can be a buy or sell day.

 

EJ - Bias down until positive flow proves otherwise.

[Snow Dog 10]

An early trade this morning +57. D bias was down, 1hr closed as a 3 bar reversal, 15 min lower high little/no lower wick.

[Snow Dog 10]

EJ did not want to go up after news released. An intra day resistance level around 120.70. Shooting star treble top, little/no lower wick. the move below days open 119.89 earlier in the day was rejected. Happy to exit +43 for 100 pip day when it held again.

[Snow Dog 10]

Recap 26 Feb

 

EUR - View was: Engulfing D neg close. 4hr and 1hr flow down, both showing divergence. Whilst there can be a reaction up after the over sized negative close bias down until flow confirms otherwise. We had an early move down before London open. Price moved higher reacting to the W M1 pivot/1.3015 support level previously identified on D charts.

 

GU - View was: Positive D close still below 8lwma, no trend line breaks. Flow on 4hr higher low and 1hr is on higher high higher low. This can be a buy or sell day. Overall moved lower but difficult to trade off 1hr as the negative close candles were all large.

 

EJ - View was: Bias down until positive flow proves otherwise. Overall there were good selling opportunities but the low from the 25th/W M0 held.

[Snow Dog 10]

EUR GU EJ 27 Feb

 

EUR - D closed a doji, contained by previously identified support/resistance levels. Whilst we can go either way today the bias remains down until price confirms otherwise. We have a base now at 1.3040, the move below that yesterday was strongly rejected.

 

GU - D negative close lower high 3 bar reversal. It seems a struggle to go lower in this 2 month down trend, bias remains down until proved otherwise.

 

EJ - D closed a doji. 4hr showing a clear base despite that there have been no strong moves higher. Bias remains down.

[Snow Dog 10]

EUR GU EJ 27 Feb

 

EJ - D closed a doji. 4hr showing a clear base despite that there have been no strong moves higher. Bias remains down.

 

I saw this at work and said to myself I'm going to be very, very impressed if Mrs V catches this one. Why you might ask, well firstly her back has been giving her some issues lately and second she sat through a day of mind numbingly boring nothing, as you know when its happening or not happening actually, how difficult it is to keep yourself occupied and then still get the trade when it happens.

 

OK why that trade, there is an obvious level forming during the day 120.30 area. 1hr closed a shooting star, 15 min genuine lower high, 3 bar reversal, little/no lower wick (a classic example of how that rule avoided half a dozen losing trades today). Entry is close to the upper extreme of pa i.e. 120.31 and far enough away from the lower range119.75 to get to BE if it does not follow through lower. Exit +45.

 

Re-entry below 119.50 exit at small loss when it never followed through lower and she had a BE trade also.

[Snow Dog 10]

Recap 27 Feb

EUR - View was: D closed a doji, contained by previously identified support/resistance levels. Whilst we can go either way today the bias remains down until price confirms otherwise. We have a base now at 1.3040, the move below that yesterday was strongly rejected. Price did prove otherwise, 4hr higher low following divergence, cross of RSI and 8lwma setting up the move. Even if regarded as counter trend our trade rules applied. Price rejecting previously identified support level 1.3014/W M1, 4hr divergence, flow changed to higher low following divergence.

 

GU - View was: D negative close lower high 3 bar reversal. It seems a struggle to go lower in this 2 month down trend, bias remains down until proved otherwise. The down bias did not play out, what seemed like a struggle to go lower won the day.

 

EJ - View was: D closed a doji. 4hr showing a clear base despite that there have been no strong moves higher. Bias remains down. There was a move down in line with bias but the clear base held and then moved up strongly from there.

[Snow Dog 10]

EUR GU EJ 28 Feb

EUR - D closed positive for a morning star 3 bar reversal pattern. 4hr had a higher close yesterday following divergence. Price stalled at previous support/resistance level/W M2 1.3166. Bias up with potential to move lower from 1.3166.

 

GU - Similar picture to EUR.

 

EJ - Similar picture to EUR.

[Snow Dog 10]

Not a classic set up from 1hr, dojis/inside bars. It didn't want to go up and was a get in near extreme of upper range trade, which is fine on ranging days. Exit +53.

[Snow Dog 10]

Recap 28 Feb

EUR - View was: D closed positive for a morning star 3 bar reversal pattern. 4hr had a higher close yesterday following divergence. Price stalled at previous support/resistance level/W M2 1.3166. Bias up with potential to move lower from 1.3166. We did move lower from 1.3166.

 

GU - View was: Similar picture to EUR. GU was a bit of a mess only had a D range of 70 pips.

 

EJ - View was: Similar picture to EUR. A mess, small range, little follow through.

[Snow Dog 10]

1 Mar EUR GU EJ

 

EUR - D negative close as 3 bar reversal, the previous morning star pattern did not play out, the upper resistance level 1.3166 held. 1hr flow now lower high lower low. Bias down.

 

GU - D closed a narrow range shooting star. No bias.

 

EJ - D closed also a very narrow range. 4hr and 1hr look sideways no bias.

 

It appears the fiscal cliff that was pushed back until today has been holding the markets back somewhat.

[Snow Dog 10]

And heres to post number 400, better make it a good 'un.:doh: Blew it!!:crap:

[Snow Dog 10]

1 Mar EUR GU EJ

 

EUR - D negative close as 3 bar reversal, the previous morning star pattern did not play out, the upper resistance level 1.3166 held. 1hr flow now lower high lower low. Bias down.

 

GU - D closed a narrow range shooting star. No bias.

 

EJ - D closed also a very narrow range. 4hr and 1hr look sideways no bias.

 

It appears the fiscal cliff that was pushed back until today has been holding the markets back somewhat.

 

Did not trade at all on Fri due to health issues. Just posting what we would have been looking for in a trade.

 

LO has move up CT as the bias was down. That failed at the RN. 1hr long legged doji and 15 min lower high entry likely around 1.3061. The simple fact that a move out of the immediate range failed, in this case up, means that the move down below that immediate range is a high % trade. Add that onto the normal trade rules i.e. the down bias, 1hr set up candle, 15 min lh little/no lower wick and thats a trade thats 100% consistent with methods.

[Snow Dog 10]

Recap 1 Mar

EUR - View was: D negative close as 3 bar reversal, the previous morning star pattern did not play out, the upper resistance level 1.3166 held. 1hr flow now lower high lower low. Bias down. 1hr long legged doji set up move down in line with bias.

 

GU - View was: D closed a narrow range shooting star. No bias.

 

EJ - View was: D closed also a very narrow range. 4hr and 1hr look sideways no bias.

[Snow Dog 10]

4hr chart and W pivots.

Showing again to highlight the importance of the W pivots and support/resistance levels.

[Snow Dog 10]

Lower high following divergence, higher low following divergence.

 

EUR 1 Mar

 

Probably not that often that you see sell divergence followed by a lower high and buy divergence followed by a higher low in the same day.

 

London open move higher does not follow through. 1hr big upper wick on the doji. 15 min divergence, lower high for move back into trend.

 

At London close time slot we have 2 x 1hr hammers/dojis. 15 min higher low following divergence at W S2.

 

Whilst its a great tool to give advance warning of a potential move, you never know when divergence will play out. In the higher low/lower high following divergence price action is giving confirmation of the divergence to validate the trade.

[Snow Dog 10]

Avoid weak pre/early US session counter trend candles

 

EUR 1 Mar

 

We would avoid weak 1hr pre/early US session counter trend candles and look for London session trend to continue.

[Snow Dog 10]

4 Mar

 

EUR - The attempt below the Feb-Apr '12, Jan '13 lows failed for now. D closed a hammer, still below the 8lwma and below RSI 50 level, divergence showing. 4hr showing divergence, still on lower high lower low but a positive close here would flip that to a higher low. 1hr can go either way. It remains to be seen whether the bounce around London close was due to the US sequester discussions or start of a move up. We are at a key support level so can move up from there, until this is confirmed by price action bias down.

 

GU - D negative lower high 3 bar reversal close, showing signs of divergence. 4hr flow still lower high lower low. Bias down.

 

EJ - D positive close, higher low 3 bar reversal. 4hr flow higher high higher low. We have a base today at the D pivot 121.50 and if that holds bias up. failure to hold would give a 1hr lower high and flip short term bias down.

[Snow Dog 10]

EUR GU EJ 5 Mar

EUR - Fri lows held and D closed a hammer, divergence playing out. 4hr higher low close. 1hr higher high higher low flow. Short term bias up, until D signals this can still be a rally in downtrend.

 

GU - Positive D close, 4hr flow lower broken. Short term bias up but this can still be a rally in downtrend.

 

EJ - No follow through yesterday, no bias can go either way.

[Snow Dog 10]

Don't ask me why Mrs V didn't take the GU buy this morning?? She had it set up and then didn't press. It was a straight forward buy I think. Short term bias was up per assessment this morning. 1hr shooting star confirming the move failed down (Asian range break). That automatically increasing the likelihood of a buy succeeding, i.e. back into bias.

 

After an EJ BE trade grabbed 17 pips and disappeared off to make dinner. GU 1hr lh shooting star then a neg close. 15 min lower high.

[Snow Dog 10]

EUR GU EJ 6 Mar

 

EUR - D closed positive in line with the short term bias up, still on lower high lower low cycle. No bias can go either way today.

 

GU - D closed a shooting star, lower high lower low cycle in tact. Bias down.

 

EJ - The tight sideways price action continues, no bias.

 

Very difficult trading conditions at the moment and it looks like entering as close as possible to the extremes of ranges will be more important than ever.

[Snow Dog 10]

EUR - View was: D closed positive in line with the short term bias up, still on lower high lower low cycle. No bias can go either way today.

A 4hr hour doji, double top that closed before London open set up a move down.

 

GU - View was: D closed a shooting star, lower high lower low cycle in tact. Bias down.

Bias down played out starting with a 1hr 3 bar reversal going into London open which continued into US session.

 

EJ - View was: The tight sideways price action continues, no bias.

I had posted elsewhere that I was finding EJ difficult to read at the moment, this did not change at all on the day.

[Snow Dog 10]

EUR GU EJ 7 Mar

EUR - The moves up over the previous 2 days was a rally in downtrend and the D closed a lower high 3 bar reversal. It does appear that we have divergence on D and 4hr. Price action would need to confirm this so to buy we'd be looking for a 1hr higher low to change flow upwards. There is a potential resistance level at last weeks low. We would expect the solid D negative close candle to follow through lower. Bias is down until flow confirms otherwise.

 

GU - Very similar picture to EUR with the D close and divergences. Again though bias down until flow confirms otherwise.

 

EJ - Not much clearer than yesterday for me. No bias.