Higher Lows Lower Highs

[Snow Dog 10]

We had a -4 re-entry on gu and missed ej running its stops.

 

 

 

Did get this lh pullback to psych level for +33.

 

I have some trade rules for 7RB but nothing formal to confirm a strategy. I have made some notes on the blog on this Vantage fx and there will be more to come no doubt.

[Snow Dog 10]

I wasn't in front of computer for this one.

 

EJ almost gets to 106, and bounces some 70 pips. Then it falls to 25 level and the bounces get smaller and smaller. Smaller bounces from a level is a high prob signal that the level will fail.

 

When the right set up occurs, 1hr down, 15 min down, 5 min lh with little/low lower wick on set up candle there's a good chance its going to break through.

 

If you got in earlier bounces and got out keep going if bounces are smaller. Its amazing how often these set ups occur and work out.

[Snow Dog 10]

We sold the 2b set up right at the top but as is usually the case got out at BE when we hit +8/9 a couple of times and it seemed like it just didn't want to go.

 

Entered a little later again. This was against pos close 15 min candles but 15 min had upper wick and the vol in move up on 5 min clearly falling away. The res area is clearly shown on 5 min at the 5565 W pivot. The 7RB entry was there but showing the 5 min as for us it just seemed to show the res area clearer. Exit at psych level +23.

 

We then had a later re-entry 7RB lh below psych level exited for small loss when it never followed through.

[Snow Dog 10]

CII divergence on 1hr, 30 min, 15 min and 5 min. Dble top, 15 min doji. Entry taken when 7RB showed div and neg close.

 

Target run down to 50 level. I had to pop out and missed the perfect system lh trades that followed

[Snow Dog 10]

We missed the 2b sell below 5425 level on the 7RB chart. The multi bottom earlier 5355 with CII divergence buy was a little early for us. Nice set up though.

 

We took this lh and just waited for DO 5392 to clear.

 

Exit +24 when 5360 held a few times.

[MadMarketScientist 11]

Snow Dog - thanks for all the posts and analysis. Like you, I do spend some time focusing on the GBPUSD. Of late, I have been trading quite a bit in the futures equivalent -- using the BP futures. It works out to be $6.25 per pip, I get very quick executions and typically just pay commissions with only minimal slip. I think I come out ahead when I compare it with paying fixed spreads on spot currency. But, who knows.

 

I was busy today on the BP but ultimately ended up about break-even after costs. I did comeback though from an early long you can see that I entered near the high (oops) -- but managed to catch at least some of the decline.

 

You can see I trade off of Renko charts as well so a bit different than time/tick.

 

MMS

[daedalus 10]

I'd love to see more trade examples MMS. I've always heard that renko charts can be deceiving on how they are formed and that for backtesting purposes you can't really take the fill prices to be valid... am I mis-remembering something.

 

Ever have issues with them?

[MadMarketScientist 11]

You are right. There are issues you have to account for because definitely, they do not plot every tick/pip point.

 

On the example I'm using a 10 pip renko bar. So, if the price closes a bar and then goes up 7 pips but not 10, and then starts to sell-off and goes down 10 pips (from the lower of the most recent bar printed) you'll never see that move of 7 pips to the upside.

 

It will only complete a brick if there's a full 10 pips above the high of the most recent bar, or below the low. Like bricks being stacked on top of each other, etc...

 

For that reason I only trade it a certain way. Where my entry is either at the close of the renko bar, or a full increment above/below -- meaning 10 pips higher than the high if I'm buying, or 10 pips below if I'm selling (or whatever length renko you are using) -- then I make sure my targets are some multiple of the renko bar size -- let's say 3x that renko bar so in this case 30 pips. Same with the stop.

 

This way I know that I will always see my actionable items on the chart -- nothing will magically disappear which would happen if you are willing to trade on numbers "inside" of the renko bar.

 

If you do any automation it's a great (read: bad) way to get amazing results -- that end up not being replicated in real-time since those bad trades go away as phantom trades - but in reality you are actually in them. I learned that the hard way with renko.

 

Once you work with it this way though I really do like them at least for certain markets where I'm trying to trade in a way not to capture every twist and turn - or small move. The ones where I'm trying to capture the major move for that session or market hours I'm trading since much of the other smaller noise gets filtered out.

 

Hope that helps a bit.

 

MMS

 

 

 

I'd love to see more trade examples MMS. I've always heard that renko charts can be deceiving on how they are formed and that for backtesting purposes you can't really take the fill prices to be valid... am I mis-remembering something.

 

Ever have issues with them?

[Snow Dog 10]

Snow Dog - thanks for all the posts and analysis. Like you, I do spend some time focusing on the GBPUSD. Of late, I have been trading quite a bit in the futures equivalent -- using the BP futures. It works out to be $6.25 per pip, I get very quick executions and typically just pay commissions with only minimal slip. I think I come out ahead when I compare it with paying fixed spreads on spot currency. But, who knows.

 

I was busy today on the BP but ultimately ended up about break-even after costs. I did comeback though from an early long you can see that I entered near the high (oops) -- but managed to catch at least some of the decline.

 

You can see I trade off of Renko charts as well so a bit different than time/tick.

 

MMS

 

These are constant range bars that I have used, not sure if I will continue with them or use 1 min as before.

 

They are a little different from Renko bars. CRB's form over the chosen number of pips and candles can overlap, I chose &RB's. Renko it seems does not allow candles to overlap they have no wick and only build up or down.

[MadMarketScientist 11]

One other quick thing about constant range bars/CRB or range bars. There are two different kinds.

 

When you use a plugin on Metatrader for example it doesn't typically allow any overlap of the high or low of the range bar to the open of the next bar.

 

Whereas if you are in Tradestation for example, their "Range Bar" allows the next bar to open equal to the high or low of the prior range bar.

 

If you want to set-up a matching Range Bar to something you'd see on Metatrader from within Tradestation you actually have to use what they call "Momentum Bars" -- Tradestation has both and this is the difference.

 

Might seem like a small difference but if you're using indicators to trade it actually will likely end up with very different trades as the charts will be different. Not drastically but enough to change set-ups.

 

Just an FYI.

 

MMS

[Snow Dog 10]

One other quick thing about constant range bars/CRB or range bars. There are two different kinds.

 

When you use a plugin on Metatrader for example it doesn't typically allow any overlap of the high or low of the range bar to the open of the next bar.

 

Whereas if you are in Tradestation for example, their "Range Bar" allows the next bar to open equal to the high or low of the prior range bar.

 

If you want to set-up a matching Range Bar to something you'd see on Metatrader from within Tradestation you actually have to use what they call "Momentum Bars" -- Tradestation has both and this is the difference.

 

Might seem like a small difference but if you're using indicators to trade it actually will likely end up with very different trades as the charts will be different. Not drastically but enough to change set-ups.

 

Just an FYI.

 

MMS

 

Cheers

I have brought in CRB's and Mrs V (or should I say Mrs Snow Dog?) likes a lot. I'm not totally convinced if its better than 1 min. In trend CRB's get good reactions to levels I must say.

 

Anyway missed the trade at the top, nice lh on 7RB chart, out +17 after stall.

[MadMarketScientist 11]

Nice trade - glad to see you giving CRB's a try.

 

Early in my trading career I only day traded with time intervals -- usually 1M, 2M, 3M and 5M. I never made any money.

 

Later I switched to tick bars and things started to turn around for me.

 

Now I tend to oscillate between tick, range bars (CRB) and renko bars. I do much better.

 

Time intervals I now only use when I'm looking for the big picture, maybe a bigger swing trade.

 

I'm sure there are plenty who do just fine on time intervals day trading but I think those work best when you're trading off of support/resistance areas and not off of oscillators -- when you are using oscillators for your indicators and signals I think CRB, tick, etc... work better.

 

At least for me. Thanks for posting the chart.

 

MMS

[Snow Dog 10]

1hr dragonfly doji which could not break high of prev positive close candle. 15 min LO dragonfly doji also.

 

Sold the shooting star lh, little lower wick. Target 50 psych level out a little early.

[MadMarketScientist 11]

Looks like a news based decline on that one given the spike down - I got in a little late at 1.5533 so had to bailout on the bounce back - you did better catching it before it was more fully developed.

[Snow Dog 10]

Looks like a news based decline on that one given the spike down - I got in a little late at 1.5533 so had to bailout on the bounce back - you did better catching it before it was more fully developed.

 

Pips is pips!! I have to stay in longer, had a tough few weeks though missing entries which snow balled to a minor crisis in confidence. Just happy to bank some. Took a while to just calm down to a panic, system works, whats a tough week or two in big pic - nothing. Nicely back on track now.

[Snow Dog 10]

Just got back had to pop out. Did get this lh earlier. EJ 1 hr down, 15 min had a hammer, pos close on lower vol and then a neg close doji. Suggesting buyers not yet interested.

 

5 min had had lower highs, lower lows and we were still on lh. Target was RN out +16 when that failed to reach.

[Snow Dog 10]

2b trade on gu, out +17 when the 15 area held. 85/15 can often be turn points for gu.

[Snow Dog 10]

100% system trade, 1hr down, 15 min shooting star, 5 min lh, entry candle little/no lower wick. Target the 25 psych level/38% fib retrace of Fri's range which was achieved.

[MadMarketScientist 11]

Thanks for sharing the charts as always!

 

MMS

[Snow Dog 10]

We missed the hl buy at 5750 (Mrs V's bleeding has stopped nicely) and had to wait a while for this one.

 

A big run up tp 5800, a 15 min neg close then a 15 min shooting star. Sold the low of 5 min doji (the only time we'll trade a wick in direction of a trade ie a doji) which was the 2nd lh, exited +32 at the target 50 level.

[MadMarketScientist 11]

Solid catch on the short.

[Snow Dog 10]

A couple of 'other trades'. This one after good 15 min hammers at extreme, 1 min hl entry candle little/low upper wick.

 

Out +20. Mrs V saying exit at 6041 W M3, I had 50 level as target, thats fine though.

[Snow Dog 10]

We missed a hl re-entry on gu as price ran really quick above 6050 and we couldn't get on.

 

Not a typical trade for me but I couldn't resist. 15 min hl/2b, bull flag, exit at Y's high +20.

 

Pretty sure its going higher but I have to pop out and then its US news.

[MadMarketScientist 11]

Today I caught a good runner on the GBPUSD see attached. Better than yesterday when my buy attempt faltered and had to exit at my stop -- so able to redeem today.

 

[Snow Dog 10]

Today I caught a good runner on the GBPUSD see attached. Better than yesterday when my buy attempt faltered and had to exit at my stop -- so able to redeem today.

 

 

I typically look at the 1hr charts as a set up, looks like you trade from them, nice one.

 

A 1hr hl/lh in direction of trend normally does give good moves.